# NFL Week 11 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 15, 2018, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581 "2018-11-15T19:52:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/1 "2018-11-15T19:52:14Z")
I got it in on time this week! TNF Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) Sunday early Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (PK) Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (NL) Sunday late Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7) SNF Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3) MNF Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1) Byes: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/2 "2018-11-15T20:19:49Z")
Six teams on a bye means a lot of fantasy team transactions this week. The Falcons are 4.5 point favorites over the Cowboyos?! I know it’s in Atlanta, but hello, the Falcons just got beat soundly by Cleveland. And the Cowboys finally looked really good winning over the Eagles. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/3 "2018-11-15T20:24:35Z")
I’m going the Seattle/Green Bay game tonight. Two teams with a lot at stake tonight. Should be fun. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/4 "2018-11-16T02:50:18Z")
I forgot how much I dislike the constantly whining Pete Carroll. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/5 "2018-11-16T03:39:38Z")
Refs putting forth a valiant effort. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/6 "2018-11-16T15:20:20Z")
Why didn’t McCarthy challenge that “catch” made by Lockett? It was going to get overturned! Instead, the Seahawks score the deciding TD. ---
**Author:** ![Clawdio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d07c76/32.png) [@Clawdio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clawdio)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/7 "2018-11-16T15:32:28Z")
I can’t help it. Pouting Aaron Rodgers is my favorite. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/8 "2018-11-16T15:57:20Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Why didn’t McCarthy challenge that “catch” made by Lockett? Cause he’s an idiot. I’m guessing he might be gone after this year if this continues. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/9 "2018-11-16T16:04:50Z")
> [@Clawdio](#): > > I can’t help it. Pouting Aaron Rodgers is my favorite. I’d be pissed too if I knew I was the best player on my team and I was giving it my all and others around me weren’t. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/10 "2018-11-16T16:11:11Z")
Remember last week’s questions about “How much better/worse would Rogers and Brady be if they swapped coaches”? Anyone think Belichick would punt on 4th and 2, down 3 with four minutes to go and only one time out? ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/11 "2018-11-16T17:59:13Z")
I have disliked McCarthy’s management of games for quite some time. Again, lack of time outs late in the game bites the Packers on the ass. So does failure to believe in the offense. Get us a new coach, please!!! ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/12 "2018-11-16T18:16:58Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > I have disliked McCarthy’s management of games for quite some time. Again, lack of time outs late in the game bites the Packers on the ass. So does failure to believe in the offense. Get us a new coach, please!!! When the Chiefs more-or-less inevitably flameout in the playoffs, there is strong probability that Reid will have made at least one odd game management decision. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/13 "2018-11-16T18:36:12Z")
> [@Quercus](#): > > Anyone think Belichick would punt on 4th and 2, down 3 with four minutes to go and only one time out? Where was the ball? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/14 "2018-11-16T18:44:03Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > Where was the ball? Their own 33. Which, yes, the chance for them to get a touchdown is high, but that really shouldn’t matter. If you punt, pretty much your only chance to win is to get a 3 and out. If you can’t stop them from scoring a touchdown at your 33, you aren’t going to stop them from getting a first down at their 20. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/15 "2018-11-16T18:48:43Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Their own 33. Which, yes, the chance for them to get a touchdown is high, but that really shouldn’t matter. If you punt, pretty much your only chance to win is to get a 3 and out. If you can’t stop them from scoring a touchdown at your 33, you aren’t going to stop them from getting a first down at their 20. Lord, with that much time left, you have to punt and trust your defense to get off the field in one series, which would leave you at least two minutes left with one time out and the two minute warning. You give up the ball there, and they can run it down to the two minute warning and kick a field goal, which would mean you’d be in the same situation time wise but needing a touchdown instead of just a field goal. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/16 "2018-11-16T18:54:23Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > Lord, with that much time left, you have to punt and trust your defense to get off the field in one series, which would leave you at least two minutes left with one time out and the two minute warning. You give up the ball there, and they can run it down to the two minute warning and kick a field goal, which would mean you’d be in the same situation time wise but needing a touchdown instead of just a field goal. Yeah, but that’s not factoring the odds where a punt is 99.9% chance of turning over the ball, vs. what, a 50% chance of turning over the ball on a 2 yard play? ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/17 "2018-11-16T20:06:14Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > Lord, with that much time left, you have to punt and trust your defense to get off the field in one series, which would leave you at least two minutes left with one time out and the two minute warning. You give up the ball there, and they can run it down to the two minute warning and kick a field goal, which would mean you’d be in the same situation time wise but needing a touchdown instead of just a field goal. But if you trust your defense to get off the field in one series, why are you so scared of going for it? By the way, there’s good data on succeeding at 4th and 2 (since it’s the same as a 2-point conversion) – 50-60% chance. Also, the Seahawks went three-and-out on almost exactly half of their series in the game. So calling them both 50/50 chances, here’s the possibilities: Going for it 50% (convert 4th down) – 4 minutes to drive 70 yards for a FG to tie, TD to win 25% (turn over on downs, Seahawks get 1st down) – lose w/o getting the ball back 25% (over on downs, Seahawks kick field goal) – 2 minutes to drive 70 yards for a TD to win. punting 50 % (Seahawks forced to punt) – \<2 minutes to drive 70 yards for a FG to tie TD to win 50 % - (Seahawks make 1st down) – lose w/o getting the ball back. You don’t even need to know the odds of Rogers succeeding on the last drive – there’s no way the second option can be better. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/18 "2018-11-16T21:37:06Z")
> [@Quercus](#): > > But if you trust your defense to get off the field in one series, why are you so scared of going for it? > By the way, there’s good data on succeeding at 4th and 2 (since it’s the same as a 2-point conversion) – 50-60% chance. Also, the Seahawks went three-and-out on almost exactly half of their series in the game. So calling them both 50/50 chances, here’s the possibilities: > > Going for it > 50% (convert 4th down) – 4 minutes to drive 70 yards for a FG to tie, TD to win > 25% (turn over on downs, Seahawks get 1st down) – lose w/o getting the ball back > 25% (over on downs, Seahawks kick field goal) – 2 minutes to drive 70 yards for a TD to win. > > punting > 50 % (Seahawks forced to punt) – \<2 minutes to drive 70 yards for a FG to tie TD to win > 50 % - (Seahawks make 1st down) – lose w/o getting the ball back. > > You don’t even need to know the odds of Rogers succeeding on the last drive – there’s no way the second option can be better. Eh, given that Rodgers ignored an open Jones in the middle of the field on first down and Joe Webbed a ball to MVS on third, there’s no guarantee he completes the pass for the first, and Jones was apparently not allowed to touch the ball in the second (and I don’t know why). As much as I would love to blame McCarthy for all of the offense’s ills, a good share of that blame falls on Rodgers. Watching All-22 replays constantly shows open receivers that Rodgers either isn’t seeing or just plain ignoring. Our offense generally gets yards in chunks or goes 3 and out, ignoring the dink and dunk things that set those big plays up. I think Rodgers is stuck in hero-ball mode, even when the calm, patient offense is getting it done. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some 60 yard heaves to a UDFA rookie tight end, but that’s not a solid basis for an offense. That said, McCarthy is the leader of this team. If the team ain’t getting it done, the buck stops there. The nice guy act isn’t getting it done. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/19 "2018-11-16T22:15:09Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > Eh, given that Rodgers ignored an open Jones in the middle of the field on first down and Joe Webbed a ball to MVS on third, there’s no guarantee he completes the pass for the first, and Jones was apparently not allowed to touch the ball in the second (and I don’t know why). > > As much as I would love to blame McCarthy for all of the offense’s ills, a good share of that blame falls on Rodgers. Watching All-22 replays constantly shows open receivers that Rodgers either isn’t seeing or just plain ignoring. Our offense generally gets yards in chunks or goes 3 and out, ignoring the dink and dunk things that set those big plays up. I think Rodgers is stuck in hero-ball mode, even when the calm, patient offense is getting it done. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some 60 yard heaves to a UDFA rookie tight end, but that’s not a solid basis for an offense. > > That said, McCarthy is the leader of this team. If the team ain’t getting it done, the buck stops there. The nice guy act isn’t getting it done. I blame McCarthy more than Rodgers. Not going for it on 4th and 2, getting away from the running game with Jones when it was working AND you had the lead, burning timeouts in the 2nd half, not challenging the Lockett reception, etc. Rodgers certainly didn’t play his best game but man, this is the guy that came into this game with ONE interception. ONE!! You put the ball in that guy’s hands no matter what. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581/20 "2018-11-17T05:01:19Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > As much as I would love to blame McCarthy for all of the offense’s ills, a good share of that blame falls on Rodgers. No, it’s not Rodgers’ fault. As he said after the game, he tried to throw the ball but it stuck to his hand. How can even a great QB win a game with a ball stuck to his hand? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/824581.md?page=2)