# NFL Week 15 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [December 9, 2025, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554 "2025-12-09T14:42:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/81 "2025-12-12T00:22:09Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Steelers pass-rusher TJ Watt has been hospitalized, for “lung evaluation,” after experiencing discomfort while practicing yesterday, apparently due to an injury suffered during practice. Re-reading the ESPN article, there’s a bit here which I initially missed: > [@](#): > > Watt’s lung injury occurred during treatment at the team facility Wednesday, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. So, not a practice-related injury, but something that occurred off-field, it sounds like. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/82 "2025-12-12T00:41:04Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Of course, with the mobile QB being pretty common these days, that strategy can often backfire. If your whole defense is tied up with taking away receivers, that can open an easy running lane for a QB to run for a first down if not a score. Exactly right, though back then it was the RB you had to worry about, as opposed to the QB running it himself. When Belichick presented his game plan to the defense, explaining how they had to let Thurman Thomas run wild in order to win the game, they were less than impressed. But he got them to buy in, and his defensive game plan for that game is [enshrined in the Hall of Fame](https://www.giants.com/news/belichick-s-gameplan). The idea was to eat the clock to limit their possessions; them running was the surest way to chew up time. In the end, the Bills possessed the ball for only 19:27 and were held to 19 points. Personal aside, while I had watched some football as a kid, I didn’t become a proper fan until the summer of 1990, when a buddy’s passion for the Giants got me hooked during the offseason. That 1990 season was my first. Can’t really ask for a better first season. I definitely saw parallels to that game in 2007 against the undefeated Patriots. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/83 "2025-12-12T00:50:03Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Personal aside, while I had watched some football as a kid, I didn’t become a proper fan until the summer of 1990, when a buddy’s passion for the Giants got me hooked during the offseason. That 1990 season was my first. Can’t really ask for a better first season. That’s really cool. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/84 "2025-12-12T01:15:51Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > So, not a practice-related injury, but something that occurred off-field, it sounds like. The speculation (heavy emphasis on “speculation”) is that a team doctor accidentally punctured his lung while giving him a painkiller injection. That seems to be based mostly on wild-ass guesses because the nebulous reports sound like what happened to Tyrod Taylor with the Chargers in 2020. The tiny thing that gives it a little more credence is that the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) has been in contact with Watt and his people, which is slight support for it being something that involves negligence. > **[Steelers Have Serious Legal Issue On The Horizon As NFLPA Has Spoken With TJ...](https://www.steelernation.com/2025/12/11/steelers-serious-legal-issue-tj-watt)** > > The Pittsburgh Steelers announced some very scary news on Thursday as it was reported that star edge rusher TJ Watt had to be admitted to the hospital on Wednesday after ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/85 "2025-12-12T01:42:49Z")
I agree their primary purpose is to get the bets to be 50/50 on either side. For that to happen 50% of people (weighted by the amount they bet) need to think the odds favour one team and 50% the other. Therefore they attempt to measure the perceived strength of each team by the betting public, if the initial line fails to do this they are quickly adjusted as they see more people bet one side than the other. The question then becomes how strong is the correlation between perceived strength and actual strength. You often see the media report “advanced analytics” win probabilities in my experience while these vary a bit from one media company and another they are all fairly similar to the betting lines. Very few punters make a profit from betting on football, those that do spend huge amount of time and resources analysing data to find bets where they expect to make a profit dispite the bookies cut and even then the margins will be small. To make a claim like the Chiefs have a less than 50% chance of winning on Sunday when the spread is makes them 4.5 point favorites you would need a lot more analysis than a gut feeling based on recent results. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/86 "2025-12-12T01:57:49Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > To make a claim like the Chiefs have a less than 50% chance of winning on Sunday when the spread is makes them 4.5 point favorites you would need a lot more analysis than a gut feeling based on recent results. Is anybody here making that claim? I stated that I believed that the Chargers would cover +5.5, and I haven’t changed my position. Right now it appears that 50% of the bettors agree with me, and 50% disagree. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/87 "2025-12-12T03:35:30Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I didn’t become a proper fan until the summer of 1990, when a buddy’s passion for the Giants got me hooked during the offseason. My small hometown in Arkansas was mostly Cowboys fans but they were big Giants fans for that window - Mo Carthon was born and raised there and came back pretty regularly. Pretty exciting for small town folks to have somebody win a Super Bowl ring. Oddly enough, we had a second - Cortez Kennedy was born in town but played for the high school the next town over, so sort of counted as well when he won with Seattle ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Mouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mighty_mouse/32/7776_2.png) [@Mighty\_Mouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Mouse)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/88 "2025-12-12T04:39:34Z")
A very strange win for the Falcons, who seemed to want to set a record for penalties, but hung around and hung around for Cousins to bring them down the field far enough for their kicker to seal the game. I only watched the second half, but it was pretty painful. From the stats, the first half must have been just as bad. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/89 "2025-12-12T05:58:43Z")
> [@Mighty\_Mouse](#): > > From the stats, the first half must have been just as bad. It was. Just with less scoring. ---
**Author:** ![Clawdio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d07c76/32.png) [@Clawdio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clawdio)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/90 "2025-12-12T08:50:07Z")
Sad Joe Burrow reminds me of the “Smokin Jay Cutler” memes from a while ago. [https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/onsi/news/what-joe-burrow-really-said-about-nfl-future-after-comments-spark-wild-speculation-01kc7q1w8dk7](https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/onsi/news/what-joe-burrow-really-said-about-nfl-future-after-comments-spark-wild-speculation-01kc7q1w8dk7) Quoted as saying “If its not fun, then what am I doing it for.” I guess the $400M contract has nothing to do with it. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/91 "2025-12-12T17:17:24Z")
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles ripped into his players in his post-game press conference last night, after his team blew a 14-point lead and lost to the Falcons. > [@](#): > > “You don’t make excuses,” Bowles said in an expletive-laden reaction. “You got to f—ing care enough where the s— hurts. It’s got to f—ing mean something to you. It’s more than a job. It’s your f—ing livelihood. How well do you know your job? How well can you do your job? You can’t sugarcoat that s—.” > [@](#): > > “At this point, you’ve seen everything in the season,” Bowles said. “The coaches have done everything they can do. This is a player-driven team in the last four or five weeks. You’ve got to execute, and they’ve got to hold each other accountable. As a coach, you can sit there until you’re blue in the face. Until they start holding each other accountable and doing the little things right – and that’s not everybody, you know, we’re talking about a small, select few. But the small, select few is what’s getting us beat. And until that happens, it’s not going to get right.” Maybe I’m old-school, but that sort of tirade is something I think belongs in the locker room, in private, and not in a press conference. Good leaders don’t throw their people under the bus in public; IMO, this is the way that a coach loses the locker room. > **[Bowles: Bucs' 'inexcusable' loss falls on players](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47283496/todd-bowles-says-bucs-inexcusable-loss-falls-players)** > > Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles called Thursday night's 29-28 loss "inexcusable" and put the onus on his players to hold one another accountable and execute on the field. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/92 "2025-12-12T17:44:35Z")
Maybe I misunderstood your post of the 9th. _”Speaking of underdogs, I’m a bit mystified by: … Chargers +3.5 to the Chiefs, on the road”_ I took that to mean you were mystified that he Chargers were underdogs (rather than you thought they should be underdogs but by less than 3.5 points). The spread has how extended to 5.5 as the betting public were mystified that the chiefs were not even bigger favorites than 3.5. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/93 "2025-12-12T18:05:55Z")
Justin Fields is hurt, Tyrod Taylor is hurt, so the Jets are down to undrafted free agent rookie Brady Cook to start against the Jaguars on Sunday. They have re-signed Adrian Martinez to their practice squad, and will undoubtedly activate him to serve as Cook’s backup. > **[Jets rookie Brady Cook gets first start vs. Jags](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47286647/jets-rookie-brady-cook-make-first-nfl-start-vs-jaguars)** > > The New York Jets will turn to Brady Cook as their starter Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, giving the rookie his first start in the NFL. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/94 "2025-12-12T18:06:51Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Maybe I’m old-school, but that sort of tirade is something I think belongs in the locker room, in private, and not in a press conference. Good leaders don’t throw their people under the bus in public; IMO, this is the way that a coach loses the locker room. Agreed. This looks like a coach reaching a breaking point to me, actually. That’s a public meltdown. It’s unprofessional to do this in a press conference. I almost wonder if he was recently told he is on the hot seat and he’s flaming out. > [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Justin Fields is hurt, Tyrod Taylor is hurt, so the Jets are down to undrafted free agent rookie Brady Cook to start against the Jaguars on Sunday. I had never heard of him, so I looked him up. He doesn’t seem to have had a particularly spectacular college career. I’m not surprised he wasn’t drafted, I’m a bit surprised he was signed to an NFL team at all. Good luck to him! ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/95 "2025-12-12T18:41:48Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > I took that to mean you were mystified that he Chargers were underdogs by 3.5 points. I was, and still am. I thought it would be a much closer spread. Thus I am even more mystified that the spread has grown to +5.5 points. Now, if you interpreted that to read that ‘the Chiefs have a less than 50% chance of winning on Sunday’, that’s certainly not what I meant. And I’m not sure how one can extrapolate a point spread into a percentage chance of winning the game. Sure, a large point spread could mean a higher percent chance of a win, but how does one take a -13.5 spread and change it into a percentage chance of winning? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2025, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/96 "2025-12-12T19:37:26Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > The speculation (heavy emphasis on “speculation”) is that a team doctor accidentally punctured his lung while giving him a painkiller injection. That seems to be based mostly on wild-ass guesses because the nebulous reports sound like what happened to Tyrod Taylor with the Chargers in 2020. Confirmed today, in a social media post by his brother J.J., that this was exactly what happened; T.J. underwent surgery yesterday to repair a partially collapsed lung. No word yet on his timeline to return to play. > **[Steelers' Watt has surgery for collapsed lung](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47287260/steelers-tj-watt-surgery-collapsed-lung)** > > Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt had surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung, his brother J.J. Watt posted on social media. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2025, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/97 "2025-12-13T00:36:04Z")
As I said in my post I thought you were mystified the Chargers are any sort of underdogs, though I accept I might have misunderstood you. An underdog is a team with less than a 50% chance to win, (If a point spread is 0 a punter gets exactly the asme amount for betting on either team which implies a perceived 50% chance of each team winning). I agree other point spreads do not exactly match win probabilities though I suspect they are extremely strongly correlated. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2025, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/98 "2025-12-13T00:44:45Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > As I said in my post I thought you were mystified the Chargers are any sort of underdogs Given that home-field advantage is generally 3 points, I would have expected the Chargers to be anywhere from 1 to 3 point underdogs. Right now, I think that the Chargers are a slightly better team that has been playing much better than the Chiefs in the last month. But I do (finally!) see your point. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2025, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/99 "2025-12-13T02:27:46Z")
Cam Newton says that Indianapolis signing Philip Rivers instead of him was [“like a slap in the face.”](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/indianapolis-colts/news/cam-newton-angry-colts-signing-philip-rivers-instead-him-carolina-panthers-nfl/7ba1948cb4cb0744f66660d4) ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2025, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554/100 "2025-12-13T03:37:24Z")
Dude stunk up the joint in his last season(s), as far as I recall. Rivers got to the playoffs last time he suited up. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-15/1025554.md?page=6)