# NFL Week 4 - RIP Mike Heimerdinger **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 2, 2011, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328 "2011-10-02T04:14:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/141 "2011-10-11T11:43:43Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > If I had to take one at gunpoint I’d go with Orton, but they’re pretty much equally meh. Now, if I were to say, probably not at gunpoint, that you could have not just Orton, but Orton, two first round draft picks and a third round draft pick, or Cutler (but you get back a fourth rounder), which would you choose? It’s not even close, is it? Orton v. Cutler is an amusing thought in that they are reasonably comparable statistically, but Cutler has the arm strength and hype that Orton does not. But if you throw in what the Bears actually gave up in addition to Orton, it’s clear that the Bears gave up too much for a quarterback who garners nothing but “meh”. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/142 "2011-10-11T14:09:59Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Brees -Traded for > Schaub - Traded for > Hasselbeck - Traded for > Roethlisberger - Drafted 11th > Brady - Rare exception > Freeman - Drafted 17th, traded up for > Orton - Traded for > Flacco - Drafted 18th, traded up for > Romo - Free Agent signing > Favre - Traded for > Cassel - Traded for > Fitzpatrick - Free Agent signing > Cutler - Drafted 11th, traded up for AND traded for > > I’ll let you look up what those teams with decent quarterbacks gave up for those players when the traded up. You don’t get good waiting around for a QB to fall to in the later rounds. You can get lucky every once in a blue moon, but smart teams go out and get starting QBs. They are too important to leave to the fates. You can hate Cutler all you want, but I’ll never argue against being proactive in finding a QB. I hope the goalposts are happy in their new home. First you say teams have to take quarterbacks in the first ten picks. Now you say they have to “be proactive”. Gee, you think? It’s telling that none of the players you list as traded for were traded for (other than Cutler) were traded for top 10 picks. Hell, except for Favre, none were even traded for _first round_ picks. I’ll give you the Bears braintrust thing. Turns out they’re pretty awful- though Marc Colombo has been a solid pro elsewhere. So they don’t draft anyone with those first round picks. Let’s say they trade the picks for veterans. The Eagles got Jason Peters with the 28th pick and change. Think he’d have improved your offensive line? ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/143 "2011-10-11T15:31:04Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > 700 passing yards? That’s disingenuous since Cutler passed 80 more times. Before doing the math I’d rather have Orton based on those numbers, but I could be swayed if Cutler has a decent edge in YPA. > > Cuter with Denver in 2008. > 62.3% Comp, 7.35 YPA, 25 TDs, 18 INTs > Orton with Denver in 2009. > 62.1% Comp, 7.03 YPA, 21 TDs, 12 INTs > > Orton with Chicago in 2008. > 58.5% Comp, 6.39 YPA, 18 TD, 12 INTs > Cutler with Chicago in 2009. > 60.5% Comp, 6.61 YPA, 27 TDs, 26 INTs > > If I had to take one at gunpoint I’d go with Orton, but they’re pretty much equally meh. > [@Hamlet](#): > > Now, if I were to say, probably not at gunpoint, that you could have not just Orton, but Orton, two first round draft picks and a third round draft pick, or Cutler (but you get back a fourth rounder), which would you choose? It’s not even close, is it? > > Orton v. Cutler is an amusing thought in that they are reasonably comparable statistically, but Cutler has the arm strength and hype that Orton does not. But if you throw in what the Bears actually gave up in addition to Orton, it’s clear that the Bears gave up too much for a quarterback who garners nothing but “meh”. You both realize that Orton may not start another game this year and may not be a starting QB in the NFL again right? Either you’re just being contrary for the sake of it or are so biased by your hate of Cutler’s personality that you’re willing to spite your own team. And **Ellis Dee** , Cutler had more yards and more attempts because he’s more durable and doesn’t need to be protected by an ultra-conservative game plan. You act like it’s some accident that he’s thrown the ball more. That’s real value. It’s not an accident of fate. Also… Eli in 2008 60.3% Comp 6.8 YPA 21 TDs 10 INTs Eli in 2009 62.3% Comp 7.9 YPA 27 TDs 14 INTs Let’s just remember that whole meh thing later. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/144 "2011-10-11T15:39:13Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > And **Ellis Dee** , Cutler had more yards and more attempts because he’s more durable and doesn’t need to be protected by an ultra-conservative game plan. You act like it’s some accident that he’s thrown the ball more. That’s real value. It’s not an accident of fate. It’s not him that should be protected by an ultra-conservative game plan. It’s the _ball._ It’s “real value” in the sense that he had to throw the ball more because his team was losing, I suppose. I leave it up to you whether his 26 interceptions had anything to do with that. Curiously absent from the conversation is the fact that Cutler had Brandon Marshall in 2008. Orton had the perhaps equally talented Brandon Lloyd in 2010, but you didn’t post any 2010 numbers. I wonder why. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/145 "2011-10-11T21:46:32Z")
The Cutler hate has gone a little too far here. He’s demonstrably more talented than Orton and opens up a much wider possibility in terms of play calling and game planning. His ceiling is much higher. But he’s in an atrocious situation right now on a conceptual level. He’s piloting a Mike Martz offense, known for lots of slow developing deep routes, behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game. That’s a disaster waiting to happen. And he’s throwing to Roy Williams and Devin Hester. Dude doesn’t have a chance. That said, the Cutler trade was awful. Yes, I think Cutler is far more talented than Orton, but he isn’t far more effective, for whatever reason. To even suggest that the Cutler trade was a good idea in hindsight is insane to me. So, yeah, I’ll take Cutler over Orton every single time, but not for that price. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/146 "2011-10-11T23:01:24Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > The Cutler hate has gone a little too far here. It’s not hate. I just don’t think he’s a very good quarterback, and that he’s certainly not worth what the Bears paid to get him. He’s in the morass of NFL QB’s who are between 10-20th best and not that much better than some of the completely average guys starting for teams. > [@Jules Andre](#): > > He’s demonstrably more talented than Orton and opens up a much wider possibility in terms of play calling and game planning. He’s got a stronger arm, better mobility, and is more athletic. I’ll give you that. But I really don’t see this “wider possibility”. He’s not had great success in any offense in Chicago, whether it was Ron Turner or Mike Martz. He’s a “see it, throw it” QB, which actually limits his versatility. Orton had success in the McDaniels offense. Not so much now. > [@Jules Andre](#): > > His ceiling is much higher. He’s in his 6th year in the NFL. I’m not so sure he hasn’t already hit it. > [@Jules Andre](#): > > But he’s in an atrocious situation right now on a conceptual level. He’s piloting a Mike Martz offense, known for lots of slow developing deep routes, behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game. That’s a disaster waiting to happen. And he’s throwing to Roy Williams and Devin Hester. Dude doesn’t have a chance. Great QB’s can overcome those things. Aaron Rodgers was the most sacked QB before Cutler, and still far outshone Cutler. And when you give up what the Bears paid, it was for a great QB, not an average one. Those two first round picks and the third rounder sure could have improved the WR’s and O line. You’re right, he is in a bad situation. So are a lot of NFL quarterbacks. And Cutler hasn’t shown any ability to overcome it. Hell, give almost any NFL quarterback time to throw and a stud WR and they’ll do as well as Cutler at his best. > [@Jules Andre](#): > > That said, the Cutler trade was awful. Yes, I think Cutler is far more talented than Orton, but he isn’t far more effective, for whatever reason. To even suggest that the Cutler trade was a good idea in hindsight is insane to me. So, yeah, I’ll take Cutler over Orton every single time, but not for that price. While Omni continues to tilt at the Orton is better than Cutler windmill, I’m glad you recognize the actual argument. I agree that Cutler may well be a “better quarterback” (it sure hasn’t shown in the stats though, has it?), but the difference between Cutler and Orton is, at best, minor and certainly not worth 2 first rounders and a third rounder. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/147 "2011-10-12T03:47:47Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Curiously absent from the conversation is the fact that Cutler had Brandon Marshall in 2008. Orton had the perhaps equally talented Brandon Lloyd in 2010, but you didn’t post any 2010 numbers. I wonder why. I posted 2008 and 2009 stats because those were the two years in which the supporting casts were the most comparable. The farther you get away from the date of the trade the less similar the rosters are. Also, spare me the accusations. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/148 "2011-10-12T04:21:08Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > While Omni continues to tilt at the Orton is better than Cutler windmill, I’m glad you recognize the actual argument. I agree that Cutler may well be a “better quarterback” (it sure hasn’t shown in the stats though, has it?), but the difference between Cutler and Orton is, at best, minor and certainly not worth 2 first rounders and a third rounder. I’m glad to see that you can deign to agree that Cutler “may be” better QB than Orton. That’s the argument that I get bent out of shape over. Frankly, I think it’s patently absurd to argue otherwise, but whatever. I contend the stats, which still tilt in Jay’s favor somewhat, are similar largely because Cutler is in an atrocious situation like **Jules** outlined. I think it’s ridiculous **Hamlet** can claim not to be a Cutler hater. I think your performance in the Week 5 thread during the MNF game pretty well showed that to be false. You relish in piling on Cutler deserved or not and short of a Super Bowl you’ll never be convinced otherwise. You have a bias, you like throwing it in my face to get a response. Own it. I understand the argument about the unbalance of the trade. At this point, yes it’s still a bad trade. They gave up a ton and we expected Cutler to be a hell of a lot better and more able to carry this weak offense. However, I continue to point out that those draft picks are by no means a sure thing. When discussing trades of draft picks the picks are always discussed as if they will be successful selections, I’m pointing out that they aren’t always or even usually. The results of these particular picks in Denver support that argument. For all they gave up, the Bears simply would not be a better team right now had they kept those picks. They might have a better O line or a better WR crew, but they wouldn’t be a better team with Orton or Grossman or Hasselbeck or whoever else they ended up scrounging up to play QB. That’s not really the point though. If **Hamlet** is right that Cutler has maxed out and will never be better than this then it’s a fail. I always saw the trade as a long term fix. The Bears have never had a QB in my lifetime worth a damn, even McMahon was a crap shoot. If this horrible management gets replaced and the offensive talent evaluation improves, Cutler can still have elite seasons. I’m looking to the next 5 years or more, and a physically gifted QB is worth a couple of picks who _might_ be a stud WR and a stud OT. Were it any other position I wouldn’t feel the same way. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/149 "2011-10-12T04:27:29Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Cuter with Denver in 2008. > 62.3% Comp, 7.35 YPA, 25 TDs, 18 INTs > Orton with Denver in 2009. > 62.1% Comp, 7.03 YPA, 21 TDs, 12 INTs > > Orton with Chicago in 2008. > 58.5% Comp, 6.39 YPA, 18 TD, 12 INTs > Cutler with Chicago in 2009. > 60.5% Comp, 6.61 YPA, 27 TDs, 26 INTs > > If I had to take one at gunpoint I’d go with Orton, but they’re pretty much equally meh. > [@Omniscient](#): > > Eli in 2008 > 60.3% Comp 6.8 YPA 21 TDs 10 INTs > Eli in 2009 > 62.3% Comp 7.9 YPA 27 TDs 14 INTs > > Let’s just remember that whole meh thing later. I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make, but based on these numbers, Eli is better than either of them. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/150 "2011-10-12T04:33:11Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make, but based on these numbers, Eli is better than either of them. In 2008 no, in 2009 yes. Just pointing out that a lot of QBs who have been defended pretty aggressively over the years here are right in the same ballpark. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/151 "2011-10-12T12:02:03Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I’m glad to see that you can deign to agree that Cutler “may be” better QB than Orton. That’s the argument that I get bent out of shape over. Frankly, I think it’s patently absurd to argue otherwise, but whatever. I contend the stats, which still tilt in Jay’s favor somewhat, are similar largely because Cutler is in an atrocious situation like **Jules** outlined. Orton has been the higher rated QB than Cutler every years since the trade (until just this week). “May be” fits perfectly. > [@Omniscient](#): > > I think it’s ridiculous **Hamlet** can claim not to be a Cutler hater. I think your performance in the Week 5 thread during the MNF game pretty well showed that to be false. You relish in piling on Cutler deserved or not and short of a Super Bowl you’ll never be convinced otherwise. You have a bias, you like throwing it in my face to get a response. Own it. Hate implies personal feelings about the guy. Cutler doesn’t do that for me. Romanowski, for sure. Harrison, both Rodney and James, yep. Vick, maybe. But Cutler, nope. I may hate the hype he gets and the continual excuses made for his poor performances, but hate, nope. > [@Omni](#): > > That’s not really the point though. If **Hamlet** is right that Cutler has maxed out and will never be better than this then it’s a fail. I always saw the trade as a long term fix. The Bears have never had a QB in my lifetime worth a damn, even McMahon was a crap shoot. If this horrible management gets replaced and the offensive talent evaluation improves, Cutler can still have elite seasons. I’m looking to the next 5 years or more, and a physically gifted QB is worth a couple of picks who _might_ be a stud WR and a stud OT. Were it any other position I wouldn’t feel the same way. If Cutler becomes elite, sure, the trade would become worth it. As of now, though, no way in hell. And if Cutler were “elite”, he’d be able to carry the team. He hasn’t. And I see no reason to believe he will. > [@Omni](#): > > In 2008 no, in 2009 yes. Just pointing out that a lot of QBs who have been defended pretty aggressively over the years here are right in the same ballpark. That’s kinda my point. Cutler isn’t special. He’s a middle of the road QB with talent to be sure, but he’s no better than a bunch of other QB’s (including Eli and Orton). ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/152 "2011-10-12T14:05:40Z")
I’ll give him this much: after watching him play in Denver, I was sure he’d never learn to throw the checkdown (he completed something like 12 passes to running backs his last year in Denver), but he has. And I can agree with this: > [@](#): > > That’s not really the point though. If Hamlet is right that Cutler has maxed out and will never be better than this then it’s a fail. I always saw the trade as a long term fix. The Bears have never had a QB in my lifetime worth a damn, even McMahon was a crap shoot. If this horrible management gets replaced and the offensive talent evaluation improves, Cutler can still have elite seasons. I’m looking to the next 5 years or more, and a physically gifted QB is worth a couple of picks who might be a stud WR and a stud OT. Were it any other position I wouldn’t feel the same way. In other words, the jury can reasonably still be out. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2011, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328/153 "2011-10-12T16:49:14Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > In other words, the jury can reasonably still be out. Of course. He could always get better. But we’re now in the third year of the trade and, so far, not so much. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-4-rip-mike-heimerdinger/598328.md?page=7)