# NFL Week 7 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 23, 2011, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521 "2011-10-23T09:22:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/61 "2011-10-24T05:15:52Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > No. Manning doesn’t play defense. Neither does New England, but they’re 5-1. If this season doesn’t convince you of the value of a single player to some teams, nothing will. With Peyton they almost certainly would have won a few of the games they lost from simply outscoring their opponent. This game was not one of those, but at the same time when a team is 0-6 already they usually play like it. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/62 "2011-10-24T11:17:40Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > He does not play on the defense, but he does help them substantially (keeping drives going to allow the defense to rest and regroup). There were several Chicago teams in the 90’s and 00’s whose defense performed spectacularly throughout the season despite an utterly awful, awful, AWFUL, QB/offense. Cade McNown, Jonathan Quinn, Craig Krenzel, Cordell Stewart, Henry Burris, blah, blah, blah… Three and out and a cloud of dust. Indianapolis isn’t awful merely because their defense is awful merely because their offense is awful merely because Manning is injured. [QUOTE=Airman Doors, USAF] If this season doesn’t convince you of the value of a single player to some teams, nothing will. [/QUOTE] No one is denying his value. It’s just too simple to claim that the wreck the Colts are is due to one player’s absence. The Colt’s were 6-6 at one point last year in a weak division while Manning was typically destroying the league. Clearly, there are more symptoms to the disease. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/63 "2011-10-24T13:26:26Z")
But it really is that simple. The Colts are giving up 31 points a game this season, including last night. They gave up 24 points a game last season. Taking out yesterday’s game, they were giving up… 24.5 points a game. Conversely, they _scored_ 27 points per game last season, and are scoring 16 points per game this season. I guess you can argue that their weaker-than-normal showing in 2010 plus this year are evidence of a decline, but bear in mind that the Colts were _decimated_ by injuries in 2010 and 2009. The entire starting secondary was on injured reserve by the end of the season: Melvin Bullitt, Bob Sanders, Kelvin Hayden and Jerraud Powers. Two starting linebackers combined to miss 16 games. They had to sign _two_ street free agents to play wideout. And yet, they still made the playoffs, because Peyton Manning. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/64 "2011-10-24T16:53:34Z")
The Colts are likely a 5+ win team with Manning this year. That’s pretty much all you need to know I’d think. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/65 "2011-10-24T18:55:16Z")
I think its more evidence that the Colts management is inept. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/66 "2011-10-24T19:24:33Z")
It’s worth pointing out that the betting line this summer, when everyone believed Manning would come back, was still only 9.5 wins. And most season previews were predicting the Colts to decline this year even if Manning played: nobody was forecasting collapse, AFAIK, but the consensus seemed to be that the team was aging, and not the same old 12-4 Colts people were used to. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/67 "2011-10-24T19:41:25Z")
The team really isn’t aging, though. Thanks to the monster contracts for the offense, the Colts have never been able to keep their non-core players. Freeney and Mathis are basically the only defensive players who have been retained in free agency. So, the team has generally consisted of 80% recent draft picks and 20% “core” guys. The difference between the Colts of the last couple seasons and the Colts of preceding seasons is that Bill Polian hit more on draft choices back in the day. > [@](#): > > I think its more evidence that the Colts management is inept. If you think the management of a team that made the playoffs for _10 straight seasons_ is inept, you’re fucking crazy. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/68 "2011-10-24T19:59:59Z")
> [@furt](#): > > It’s worth pointing out that the betting line this summer, when everyone believed Manning would come back, was still only 9.5 wins. And most season previews were predicting the Colts to decline this year even if Manning played: nobody was forecasting collapse, AFAIK, but the consensus seemed to be that the team was aging, and not the same old 12-4 Colts people were used to. The line is rarely 12. What are their historical lines? 10? 10.5? Even so, 10 wins is quite a substantial bit more than 0-2 wins. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/69 "2011-10-24T20:36:13Z")
10 wins probably wins the AFC South this year. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/70 "2011-10-24T20:39:51Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > The team really isn’t aging, though. 4 Adam Vinatieri PK 38 63 Jeff Saturday C 36 18 Peyton Manning QB 35 44 Dallas Clark TE 32 71 Ryan Diem G 32 87 Reggie Wayne WR 32 58 Gary Brackett LB 31 93 Dwight Freeney DE 31 98 Robert Mathis DE 30 That’s the core of the team right there. > [@](#): > > Thanks to the monster contracts for the offense, the Colts have never been able to keep their non-core players. Freeney and Mathis are basically the only defensive players who have been retained in free agency. > > So, the team has generally consisted of 80% recent draft picks and 20% “core” guys. The difference between the Colts of the last couple seasons and the Colts of preceding seasons is that Bill Polian hit more on draft choices back in the day. Well … yeah. That’s the point; whereas in the past they’d had new young players step up, none of the players they’ve added in the last 3 years has been anything more than adequate. As Freeney and Mathis slow down, and as Bob Sanders broke, no new playmakers emerged to pick up the slack. As Saturday and Diem wear down, nobody else is stepping up as a star OL. As Wayne and Clark lose a step, there’s no pro-bowl caliber receiver to take their place the way they took the place of Harrison and Pollard. That’s what an aging team looks like: the good players are past their prime, and the young ones aren’t as good. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/71 "2011-10-24T20:40:43Z")
How many wins do you think the Colts will win this year? How many do you think they’d win with Manning? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/72 "2011-10-24T20:43:51Z")
I pointed this out in the Steelers/AFC North thread, but the AFCN all have even or winning records, and the top 4 defensive spots in the entire NFL are all held by the AFC North. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/73 "2011-10-24T21:02:23Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > The line is rarely 12. What are their historical lines? 10? 10.5? I don’t know what they were in 2007 or whatever, but it’s not uncommon to see lines of 10.5 or 11. A quick look [here](http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2011/8/8/2351659/2011-nfl-over-under-win-totals-odds-pittsburgh-steelers) shows Vegas had them 6th in the AFC. As another data point, Football Outsiders had them projected for 7.8 wins, with a 33% chance of 6 wins or less. Again, that’s not saying people foresaw total collapse; but this was already a team in decline. > [@](#): > > Even so, 10 wins is quite a substantial bit more than 0-2 wins. Sure. But don’t let one prime-time asskicking make you think they’re some 0-16 basket case. Four of their seven losses were by one score, including to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. They’re playing a first place schedule, but as Painter gets his feet wet, I’d expect a few wins. I’m not saying this to minimize the greatness of Manning; he was not just the QB, but also essentially the offensive coordinator. But simply plugging in last year’s 11-5 and this year’s 0-7 as if that answered everything is far too simplistic. > [@SenorBeef](#): > > How many wins do you think the Colts will win this year? How many do you think they’d win with Manning? 3 and 9. If they’d known Manning was going to be out from the start, and prepared accordingly, 5-6 wins. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/74 "2011-10-24T21:03:18Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > I pointed this out in the Steelers/AFC North thread, but the AFCN all have even or winning records, and the top 4 defensive spots in the entire NFL are all held by the AFC North. And the Bengals reclaimed the top spot by half a yard by NOT playing as the Steelers gave up 330 yards yesterday. 😃 I hope the Bengals get the next two on the road against Seattle and Tennessee. Both opponents look terrible right now but the west coast does things to eastern time zone teams and home field advantage can be a bitch. Being 6-2 and coming back to Paul Brown stadium to face the Steelers in three weeks will be HUGE. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/75 "2011-10-24T21:10:00Z")
> [@furt](#): > > They’re playing a first place schedule, but as Painter gets his feet wet, I’d expect a few wins. The “first place schedule” thing is an odd thing to bring up. The only game they’ve played due to that so far is against Kansas City, another bottom feeding team, so I don’t think that works in their favor. Their other game will be New England later in the year. > [@](#): > > I’m not saying this to minimize the greatness of Manning; he was not just the QB, but also essentially the offensive coordinator. > > But simply plugging in last year’s 11-5 and this year’s 0-7 as if that answered everything is far too simplistic. I get that the team hasn’t done a great job of finding new young talent, but what huge changes do you think happened from 2010 to 2011? Everyone getting one year older is rarely enough to sink team. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/76 "2011-10-24T21:13:18Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > If you think the management of a team that made the playoffs for _10 straight seasons_ is inept, you’re fucking crazy. They had Manning and for those 10 years they played in a decent but none to difficult division. They created a team that was so dependent on Manning which is bad management. I get that Manning is great but if you have created a team that completely collapses then it is bad management, not because you lost one player. Yes they should have gotten worse, but not this much worse. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/77 "2011-10-24T21:53:27Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > The “first place schedule” thing is an odd thing to bring up. The only game they’ve played due to that so far is against Kansas City, another bottom feeding team, so I don’t think that works in their favor. Their other game will be New England later in the year. Which is a game they almost certainly won’t win, right? > [@](#): > > I get that the team hasn’t done a great job of finding new young talent, but what huge changes do you think happened from 2010 to 2011? Everyone getting one year older is rarely enough to sink team. Not usually, no (though “tipping points” do happen), but getting 3 years older will; they’ve been in decline for several years. By both point differential and by W-L, last season was the worst Colts team since 2002. They also lost three starters to free agency (Bob Sanders, Charlie Johnson, Clint Session); none of the free agents they signed are starting. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/78 "2011-10-24T21:56:38Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Which is a game they almost certainly won’t win, right? Your argument is that they look worse than they are because they’ve been facing the difficulty of a “first place schedule”. You do know that what position in your division you finish in only determines the scheduling of two games, right? And I was saying that they only played one of those two games, and it was against Kansas City, another team who placed first in their division last year but who have totally collapsed. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/79 "2011-10-24T22:31:04Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Your argument is that they look worse than they are because they’ve been facing the difficulty of a “first place schedule”. You do know that what position in your division you finish in only determines the scheduling of two games, right? And I was saying that they only played one of those two games, and it was against Kansas City, another team who placed first in their division last year but who have totally collapsed. You asked me how many wins I thought they’d get. IMO, a schedule with New England and Kansas City is harder than one with Buffalo and Denver, or Miami and Oakland. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521/80 "2011-10-24T22:33:59Z")
Anyone see that 25-yard run by Cam yesterday? Thing of beauty. He made three ‘Skins miss and glided out of bounds after getting the 1st down and more. He is fun to watch. He played very well yesterday. He still has a lot to learn and I’m afraid he’ll get himself hurt if he keeps being reckless (like when he tried to jump over the defender to get to the end zone and someone (Fletcher?) leveled him,) but it’s fun to watch Panthers’ games again. Oh yeah, Steve Smith is still (much, much) better than than Jason Avant. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-7/600521.md?page=5)