# Nfl week 9 from outer space **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 31, 2019, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774 "2019-10-31T14:31:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2019, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/121 "2019-11-04T23:34:58Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > To your original point about Eli being overpaid, let’s stipulate that you’re 100% right. So rewriting history, the Giants don’t overpay him, but instead pay him exactly the amount you personally feel was appropriate. What’s the result? Do you think the Giants win more, fewer, or the same amount of Superbowls? Same. Assuming the defense holds the Pats to 14 and 17 points each Super Bowl, of course. > [@Ellis Dee](#): > > Or are championships not the important thing? I’m pretty sure I’ve made it clear that I think championships (as well as wins) is a bad way to judge QB play. Because NFL football is a team game. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2019, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/122 "2019-11-04T23:50:48Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Which greatly rewards being mediocre in the regular season. And you were just saying passer rating shouldn’t be a measure of QB’s because of systems. I apologize, I thought my point was self-evident, but I’ll spell it out: Passer rating is affected by system, so comparing passer ratings between different systems isn’t a great method of comparison. The Giants didn’t change their offensive system in the playoffs, so it’s comparing like to like. > [@](#): > > Not at all. It’s just in most of our discussions about Eli, I offer up statistical evidence, and you attempt to argue it away and point to the rings. I’m trying to figure out what kind of evidence you would accept. I just offered you one: Passer rating differential between regular season and playoffs. > [@](#): > > Jim Plunkett? Hall of Fame? No idea, he (and his era) was before my time. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2019, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/123 "2019-11-04T23:56:57Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Same. Assuming the defense holds the Pats to 14 and 17 points each Super Bowl, of course. So then the fact that he was grossly overpaid was irrelevant, yes? Your whole point about overpaying mediocre QBs is that it hamstrings the franchise, preventing them from winning championships, right? That’s why you’ve been rooting for Dak Prescott to get a huge contract, so the Cowboys continue not winning championships, right? In fact, Eli is an example of your theory not working, since you yourself don’t think his massively inflated salary hurt the team’s championship potential in any way. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/124 "2019-11-05T00:17:07Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I just offered you one: Passer rating differential between regular season and playoffs. And, as I pointed out, that rewards a QB for being mediocre in the regular season and his team not getting to the playoffs. We discussed this (tangentially) when talking about Peyton v. Eli, and how Peyton was successful in carrying crappy team after team after team to the playoffs while Eli didn’t have to. Plus, the question I’m asking is about judging QB’s. Not simply judging their “clutchness”. . > [@Ellis Dee](#): > > No idea, he (and his era) was before my time. He has two rings. His passer rating in the playoffs was 67.5, but in the playoffs it was 81.9 for an increase in 14.4. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/125 "2019-11-05T00:23:14Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > So then the fact that he was grossly overpaid was irrelevant, yes? Your whole point about overpaying mediocre QBs is that it hamstrings the franchise, preventing them from winning championships, right? That’s why you’ve been rooting for Dak Prescott to get a huge contract, so the Cowboys continue not winning championships, right? Overpaying a QB isn’t a guarantee of losing anymore than paying a QB is a guarantee of winning. > [@Ellis](#): > > ]In fact, Eli is an example of your theory not working, since you yourself don’t think his massively inflated salary hurt the team’s championship potential in any way. The Giants have been out of the playoffs for 6 out of the last 7 years (with one wild card in which Eli barely got above 50% completion percentage, threw a pick, and had a passer rating of 72.1). That’s when the cost of overpaying came due, not when they won the Superbowls. With an upgraded roster that money could have bought, I’d say yes, they would have made more playoffs in those 7 years. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/126 "2019-11-05T00:58:06Z")
Is making the playoffs your measure of success? That’s certainly a reasonable one. My measure is championships. Well, actually, I consider any season where your last game is meaningful to be a successful season, but that’s not what really sticks with me. I don’t look back fondly at the 2002, 2005, 2006, 2012, or 2017 seasons with nostalgia. It’s the 1990, 2007 and 2011 seasons that give me that warm and cozy feeling, such that the rest don’t matter. (1986 was before my time.) Those other seasons actually tend to bum me out when I think about them because they ended so badly. As for your moved goalposts, so you’re saying that overpaying a mediocre QB means you only get a couple championships in the first 8 years, but then you have 8 down years. I think most football fans would sign up for that in a heartbeat, unless their team is already winning rings (singular counts). Only a handful of those, though, what with the Patriots hogging seemingly half of all championships. ---
**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/127 "2019-11-05T01:07:35Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > The Browns have good players but are a bad team. They have a a lot of talent and if they can get their crap together they can beat anyone. That’s how they beat the Ravens. It’s just rare that they actually manage to play to their potential. > > As for Eli Manning, I think of him as a high ceiling low floor QB. He can be great (winning two rings!) and absolutely awful. \*\* I saw him lose 23-0 to Seattle in a 2013 game where he threw 5 interceptions and fumbled twice, and ended the game with 154 yards passing and a 31.9 rating.\*\* Yes that was the legendary Legion of Boom at their best but even taking that into consideration it was sad. Eli is judged often by the average of his efforts, which seem middling overall when you balance his highs and lows. That’s one of the games I was thinking of when I mentioned that he sometimes looked like a guy that _Los Gigantes_ picked up off the street to play QB for them ('course, the Legion of Boom made his brother look pretty bad in S.B. XLVIII, too). ---
**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/128 "2019-11-05T01:09:21Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Which greatly rewards being mediocre in the regular season. And you were just saying passer rating shouldn’t be a measure of QB’s because of systems. > > Not at all. It’s just in most of our discussions about Eli, I offer up statistical evidence, and you attempt to argue it away and point to the rings. I’m trying to figure out what kind of evidence you would accept. > > I’m a fan of Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt for quick and dirty stuff. Others like Passer Rating or QBR or TD to INT ratio or completion percentage. \*\*I’m just wondering if you find an objective measure to determine a QB’s value. \*\* > > Personally, I found [this article about ANY/A and the Hall of Fame](http://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-and-the-hof-gray-ink-test/). I’m wondering what you look at other than the number of rings. > > Jim Plunkett? Hall of Fame? Try _[this](http://www.thegridfe.com/2018/04/13/qb-consensus-2018/)_ on for size. ---
**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/129 "2019-11-05T01:13:09Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I’m guessing yes too. He’ll have a lot of career numbers, he’s a New York City QB, and his team won two Super Bowls. Any H.o.F. should be reserved for only the very best so I hope this doesn’t happen. If it does I’ll consider the selection committee to have “gone soft.” > [@Hamlet](#): > > The real question is should he be. And that answer is no. Well put. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/130 "2019-11-05T01:18:04Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > He has two rings. His passer rating in the playoffs was 67.5, but in the playoffs it was 81.9 for an increase in 14.4. Just looking at Plunkett’s career stats on profootballreference, he’s an interesting case study. He played his first 7 seasons on bad teams in New England and San Francisco and appears to have averaged a low-60s passer rating with no playoff appearances. He joined the Raiders in his 8th year but didn’t start any games. Then he took over the starting job in his 9th season, where his passer rating jumped 10 to 15 points pretty much for the rest of his career. That’s when he started making the playoffs. I can only assume he was running different systems before he joined the Raiders, and it appears his playoff passer rating – all while with the Raiders – was roughly the same as his passer rating during the regular season with the Raiders. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/131 "2019-11-05T01:27:32Z")
> [@racepug](#): > > Try _[this](http://www.thegridfe.com/2018/04/13/qb-consensus-2018/)_ on for size. That’s a whole lotta numbers. My guess is Hamlet will dismiss it because it factors in rings, and he doesn’t think rings matter at all when evaluating QBs. Eli’s rank of 30th seems reasonable at a glance, in the pack with Wilson and Rivers, but I didn’t even read the details of their formula. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/132 "2019-11-05T01:37:39Z")
> [@racepug](#): > > Any H.o.F. should be reserved for only the very best so I hope this doesn’t happen. If it does I’ll consider the selection committee to have “gone soft.” I think Eli is borderline at best, sort of on par with Curtis Martin. So he’ll probably get in, but it will take a few years of eligibility. ---
**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/133 "2019-11-05T01:45:10Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > That’s a whole lotta numbers. My guess is Hamlet will dismiss it because it factors in rings, and he doesn’t think rings matter at all when evaluating QBs. > > Eli’s rank of 30th seems reasonable at a glance, in the pack with Wilson and Rivers, **but I didn’t even read the details of their formula**. I think it’s worth the read _if_ you can cope with some “football nerd” stuff. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/134 "2019-11-05T01:50:58Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > My measure is championships. I know. You’ve said it over and over. And repeatedly misstated my view as if I think championships don’t matter at all. Always fun. So I’ll say, yet again: “How you win, salary cap concerns, whether one player is better than another, long term effects. None of that matters or is even worth debating. As long as a team wins a championship, everything they did before and after is all good because they won that championship. Winning a championship automatically makes every decision the team made or will make, absolutely correct.” We’re simply talking past each other now. I try to pin down what possible objective measures you have for rating QB play and I cite a variety of statistics. You simply say “championships” over and over, as if that justifies every decision made. That’s fine, if that’s your viewpoint. Have at it. But if you come up with something new to add, or some kind of objective measure of worth of a QB that isn’t simply pointing at rings, let me know. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/135 "2019-11-05T01:56:35Z")
> [@racepug](#): > > Any H.o.F. should be reserved for only the very best so I hope this doesn’t happen. If it does I’ll consider the selection committee to have “gone soft.” Joe Namath is in the Hall of Fame. It’s already 'gone soft". ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/136 "2019-11-05T02:03:50Z")
You mean other than the objective measure I just offered? I also love how you start by assuring me that I’m misunderstanding you, that you do think championships matter, and then go on to say I can’t point to rings. Nice consistency in your inconsistency. You’re like the Eli of debating! * * * One thing Eli has going for him is that he absolutely elevated the receivers he played with. To a man, they all had their best years with Eli. I mean, come on, Steve Smith 2 caught over 100 passes one year! None of his receivers ever left the Giants to go to another team and then did better on that other team. OBJ might, but it’s not looking great so far. That’s actually a pretty big turn-around. Chris Berman used to quip “former Giant, now good” when doing highlights with guys like Joe Jurevicius. It was almost universally true that the Giants never got full potential out of receivers (thus the Berman quip). Then Eli showed up and that all changed. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/137 "2019-11-05T02:11:24Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > How you win, salary cap concerns, whether one player is better than another, long term effects. None of that matters or is even worth debating. Correct, yes. I mean, seriously, how you win? You can’t possibly be real with that. Name me a way the Packers can win a Superbowl that would disappoint you. > [@](#): > > As long as a team wins a championship, everything they did before and after is all good because they won that championship. Winning a championship automatically makes every decision the team made or will make, absolutely correct. As long as a team wins a championship, they have accomplished the only goal that really matters. Don’t tell me about the pain, show me the baby. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/138 "2019-11-05T02:59:09Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > You mean other than the objective measure I just offered? The one that dealt only with the “clutch” part, and not the measurement of QB play. Yes, other than that one. > [@Ellis Dee](#): > > I also love how you start by assuring me that I’m misunderstanding you, that you do think championships matter, and then go on to say I can’t point to rings. Nice consistency in your inconsistency. You’re like the Eli of debating! Championships are A measure, not THE measure. I’d be shocked to think you have that much difficulty understanding simple points if we haven’t done this so many times before. > [@Ellis Dee](#): > > Correct, yes. I mean, seriously, how you win? You can’t possibly be real with that. Name me a way the Packers can win a Superbowl that would disappoint you. Making a fan happy and being an elite QB or making good decisions for a franchise are different things. If you can’t come up with something beyond results orientated thinking, I fear we’re done. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/139 "2019-11-05T03:59:42Z")
I’ve re-read this thread (and the other ones where we’ve discussed Eli Manning), and I feel bad. I’m sometimes way too hostile and judgmental, and my opinion into the relative merits of one NFL player should not cause this much animosity and snark. I’m sorry, Ellis. I should not be such a dick in these kinds of threads. We should be able to disagree about the merits of one player without getting so agitated and without me being such a prick. While I think that Eli is easily in the top 5 of most overrated players ever in the NFL, I also need to realize people can disagree and not have it be a thing. My bad. Go Giants! Beat the Cowboys!! ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774/140 "2019-11-05T13:35:20Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Is making the playoffs your measure of success? That’s certainly a reasonable one. If you’re the Bengals, yes. Wait…no. Well, maybe. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9-from-outer-space/842774.md?page=8)