# NFL Week 9 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 7, 2010, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800 "2010-11-07T16:18:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2010, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/141 "2010-11-08T21:42:53Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Oh, if you’re not aware of it then clearly it never happened. :rolleyes: Well genius, you got some insight on that topic or are you just trying to be ass? ---
**Author:** ![fjs1fs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9e8a1a/32.png) [@fjs1fs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fjs1fs)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2010, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/142 "2010-11-08T22:51:23Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > For all intents and purposes there is no data available. I’m not aware of a single instance of a team going for it on 4th and 3 on the 45 yard line in the middle of a game. Maybe somewhere a team had an injured punter or something but that’s not data in the scientific sense. > > That some teams have run 4th down plays on late 4th quarter drives against prevent defenses isn’t relevant. That some teams have run 4th down plays on 4th and inches isn’t relevant. That teams have gone for it on 4th and goal isn’t relevant. All those situations have nothing in common with what that article is espousing. > > The only way there’s any data available is if you stipulate that the difference between a 4th and 4 play and a 1st and 10 play or a 3rd and 4 play is negligible. This I’m afraid is patently absurd. Omniscient, your overall point is a good one. But I think the actual results of “3rd and 4” situations represent a good proxy for the expectation of 4th and 4 results. And you’re probably right that the data should be cleansed to take out late-game blowouts where the defense is not really trying to stop the play (i.e., prevent defense). Another potential knock against the statistical analysis done (I say potential because I don’t know the full methodology employed) is that it may have overlooked potential benefits of punting, e.g., pinning the other team down deep and then scoring on a safety, or a fumble on the punt return, etc.. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2010, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/143 "2010-11-08T23:12:45Z")
> [@fjs1fs](#): > > But I think the actual results of “3rd and 4” situations represent a good proxy for the expectation of 4th and 4 results. I suspect that this is what they probably do, but I think it’s still inherently flawed. A fumble or interception is still a huge penalty on a 3rd down play. On a failed 4th down play it’s most likely a neutral result. Defenses, because they know the offense will still be cautious, calls defenses in a specific way. Offenses, because they don’t see a punt as a catastrophe, will still occasionally press up field on 3rd and short. The dynamics and psychology on 4th down is dramatically different. Regardless of the details Accuscore is making an assumption somewhere. That assumption makes the data very suspect considering the volatility of NFL plays. I stand by my assertion that goal to go plays would be the closest analog to 4th down plays as opposed to any other measure. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2010, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/144 "2010-11-08T23:19:08Z")
> [@fjs1fs](#): > > Another potential knock against the statistical analysis done (I say potential because I don’t know the full methodology employed) is that it may have overlooked potential benefits of punting, e.g., pinning the other team down deep and then scoring on a safety, or a fumble on the punt return, etc.. Anti-punt advocates as a rule do not see the game as a battle for field position. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2010, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/145 "2010-11-08T23:25:59Z")
Punters seem to have gotten really poor at the coffin corner kick these days. There seem to be way more touchbacks now than I recall from my youth. I suspect that some of the anti-punt ammo is a result of these 22 yard net punts that are infuriating. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2010, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/146 "2010-11-08T23:50:54Z")
Yeah, I’m starting to feel that now that Feagles retired. Though it’s tough to actually remember the last time the Giants punted… ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/147 "2010-11-09T00:15:11Z")
Brad Maynard is supposedly one of the league’s best punters. The dunce that does the NFC North ESPN Blog even went so far as to say that his fluky punt to the 1 yard line in the Bills game should earn him an immediate contract extension. I’ve watched a lot of Brad Maynard, he’s nothing special. There are a lot of kickers out there who can kick the ball from the 45 out of bounds at the 17. Get me a guy who can kick it out at the 4 please. If the guy can’t get it inside the 10 regularly from inside the 50 he’d better be able to go Shane Lechler on it and kick it 75 yards and totally flip the field. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/148 "2010-11-09T00:29:53Z")
Reggie Hodges of the Browns has 16 punts inside the 20 (he almost single-footedly kept the Browns in the game against the Steelers), and of his 41 punts only 18 have been returned for a total of 63 yards. 9 of his punts have been downed by the coverage team, good for 2nd in the league. So he’s a good punter with a good punt unit. Maynard, incidentally, leads the league in punts kicked out of bounds with 9. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/149 "2010-11-09T00:32:41Z")
Also, looking at the 10 punters who have had the most punts returned against them, only Lechler is averaging over 40 net yards per punt. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/150 "2010-11-09T00:39:59Z")
Where you getting those stats? ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/151 "2010-11-09T00:43:17Z")
[Here](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=PUNTING&season=2010&seasonType=REG) ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/152 "2010-11-09T08:26:49Z")
So that Terrell Owens is pretty impressive for an old dude. He took that big hit too that looked like the sort of thing that might’ve decapitated lesser receivers but hopped right up. He may be an egomaniacal jackass, but the dude is made of ageless steel. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/153 "2010-11-09T14:53:24Z")
If I was a GM forced to choose between Owens and Moss at gunpoint, I’d choose Owens, even though he’s older. At least I know Owens can still make tough catches for first downs, and doesn’t want to just run up the field and not block anyone. I’ve honestly been real impressed TO this year. I feel like he could play another 2 seasons at a reasonably high level. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/154 "2010-11-09T15:44:29Z")
I have a pet theory that a receiver’s longevity (and, to a lesser extent, a running back’s) is directly tied to whether he suffers knee injuries. Owens has never torn a cruciate ligament or knee tendon. Hell, his worst season injury-wise was 2004, when he missed the last two regular season games with a broken leg (the “horse collar” play). He’s never missed more than two games in _any_ season except 2005, and that was because he was suspended. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/155 "2010-11-09T19:30:10Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I have a pet theory that a receiver’s longevity (and, to a lesser extent, a running back’s) is directly tied to whether he suffers knee injuries. Owens has never torn a cruciate ligament or knee tendon. > > Hell, his worst season injury-wise was 2004, when he missed the last two regular season games with a broken leg (the “horse collar” play). > > He’s never missed more than two games in _any_ season except 2005, and that was because he was suspended. Or maybe it’s the other way - Owens never got hurt because he’s a superhero, which is also why he’s still going at age 36. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/156 "2010-11-09T20:32:51Z")
I didn’t take a position one way or the other on which is the cart or which is the horse. That could certainly be the case. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2010, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/157 "2010-11-09T21:22:49Z")
I think TO’s longevity is attributable to two things: He’s been fortunate to avoid any major knee injuries and Even by NFL player standards, the dude works out a ridiculous amount and is in incredible shape. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2010, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/158 "2010-11-10T03:38:21Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > He may be an egomaniacal jackass, but the dude is made of ageless steel. [Ivan Drago]He’s not human. He’s like a piece of iron.[/Ivan Drago] ---
**Author:** ![Death\_of\_Rats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a6a055/32.png) [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2010, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/159 "2010-11-10T14:40:35Z")
Anyone else get the feeling that Ochocinco is getting really sick really fast of being shown up on the field by TO? So far he has 15 fewer catches, but almost half the yards and less then a third of the TDs. His attitude and frustration during the Pittsburgh game this week spoke volumes. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2010, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800/160 "2010-11-10T17:17:42Z")
> [@Death\_of\_Rats](#): > > Anyone else get the feeling that Ochocinco is getting really sick really fast of being shown up on the field by TO? So far he has 15 fewer catches, but almost half the yards and less then a third of the TDs. His attitude and frustration during the Pittsburgh game this week spoke volumes. Really, it was just a matter of time, right? And I mean that either way (as in, you could switch TO for Ocho in that post and it’s just as believable and inevitable). Egos like that just can’t be held in check for long. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-9/559800.md?page=9)