# NFL Week One is the Loneliest Number

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Tags:** football-nfl\
**Created:** [September 7, 2022, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135 "2022-09-07T13:42:16Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 7

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**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/121 "2022-09-13T02:53:48Z")

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Why bother handing the ball off to a running back who has averaged 5.0+ ypc when you can just pass the ball for 3.0 ypc.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/122 "2022-09-13T02:55:30Z")

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Joel McHale: “Peyton, what’s bigger, your forehead or John Elway’s teeth?”

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**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/123 "2022-09-13T03:00:13Z")

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I am fully aware that the NFL cares not one whit what I want, but I’d love, Love, LOVE to see Gardner Minshew starting for Dallas.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/124 "2022-09-13T03:01:07Z")

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Stupid challenge by Pete Carroll. That didn’t have a chance of being overturned and it cost him a timeout.

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**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/125 "2022-09-13T03:12:45Z")

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I like Nathaniel Hackett and Russel Wilson(much less, though), but that was some poor clock management/play calling at the end of the game. Cost them.

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**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/126 "2022-09-13T03:13:06Z")

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Broncos getting petty, using all their timeouts to interrupt the victory formation multiple times.

Go home losers! 😁

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**Author:** ![LoneRhino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lonerhino/32/1311_2.png) [@LoneRhino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LoneRhino)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/127 "2022-09-13T03:14:55Z")

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I guess Russ isn’t allowed to cook for Denver either.

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**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/128 "2022-09-13T03:17:24Z")

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I’d have let Russ try to pick up 5 yards for the 1st and then taken a timeout. Running out the clock to try a 64 yard FG was a huge gamble.

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/129 "2022-09-13T04:19:20Z")

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I know Joe Buck’s not the most popular guy (and it’s a bit of an internet meme) but wow was it absolutely noticeable how much difference a competent announcing crew made to MNF. They may not be the ‘best’ in the business, but they’re no slouches and better than whatever the heck ESPN was doing the last several years. It was not actively painful to watch for a change.

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**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/130 "2022-09-13T04:30:30Z")

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> <https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1569524559782748161?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet>

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**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/131 "2022-09-13T05:40:33Z")

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This means Seattle is in sole possession of first place in the NFC West.

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**Author:** ![omenran](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omenran/32/3318_2.png) [@omenran](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/omenran)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/132 "2022-09-13T06:34:31Z")

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> [@Atamasama](#):
>
> I’d have let Russ try to pick up 5 yards for the 1st and then taken a timeout. Running out the clock to try a 64 yard FG was a huge gamble.

It doesn’t seem like much of a gamble to me.

> <https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1569530464221757446?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1569530464221757446%7Ctwgr%5Eb02db757d15136ab93746cadb95e0e2b701f87b3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fieldgulls.com%2F2022%2F9%2F12%2F23350360%2Ftwitter-reacts-seahawks-dramatic-win-broncos-absurd-4th-quarter-clock-management>

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**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/133 "2022-09-13T06:37:01Z")

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> [@omenran](#):
>
> It doesn’t seem like much of a gamble to me.

The other gamble was showing your expensive star QB how much faith you have in him when it counts.

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**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/134 "2022-09-13T11:56:22Z")

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Russ had 44 attempts and 340 yards. Their young stud RBs was averaging 6 ypc, but only given 7 carries the entire game.

Russ was allowed to “cook”. They lost because of 2 fumbles at the 1 yard line, not because Russ was somehow held back.

That said, that was some pretty poor clock management at the end. Rookie HC mistake.

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**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/135 "2022-09-13T12:12:00Z")

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> [@Hamlet](#):
>
> That said, that was some pretty poor clock management at the end. Rookie HC mistake.

Not really. Once you’ve decided to kick the field goal you know that your team won’t have the ball again. You want to leave as little time as you can for the other team to respond. So the choice was to either go for the first down with 1:10 left, or kick the field goal with 0:22.

All the talking heads are saying that the Broncos should have gone for it, because the chance of making the first down is higher than kicking the field goal. Nobody seems to remember that even if you make it, you still may be kicking a long field goal a few plays later.

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/136 "2022-09-13T13:59:00Z")

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> [@Robot\_Arm](#):
>
> Nobody seems to remember that even if you make it, you still may be kicking a long field goal a few plays later.

If after going for it and succeeding, you still end up with a long field goal attempt, you’ve lost nothing and you’ve almost certainly shaved a few yards from a kick attempt. So, you’re balancing that against the chance of not converting or losing the ball via turnover.

It’s a bit new fangled but fans seem to like the more aggressive modern style of handling 4th downs. I certainly like it, and the statistics seem to back it up. Wilson is one of the best QBs in the league and Denver is paying him like he is. Put the game in his hands. He might not convert, but he gives the team the best shot at winning in that situation.

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**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/137 "2022-09-13T14:18:05Z")

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> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> Wilson is one of the best QBs in the league and Denver is paying him like he is. Put the game in his hands. He might not convert, but he gives the team the best shot at winning in that situation.

Great game. (I was there!) Agree completely that the field goal attempt was a strange choice. Seattle’s defense was uneven. Denver made a lot of plays and certainly had a better chance of getting a first down with plenty of time then kicking 64 yards.

Let Gino cook!

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**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/138 "2022-09-13T14:25:25Z")

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> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> Wilson is one of the best QBs in the league and Denver is paying him like he is.

Is still, though? I do agree that they should have put the ball in his hands (it is what they are paying him for), but he’s not Tom Brady so age is likely to catch up with him (and may have).

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/139 "2022-09-13T14:58:55Z")

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I think he still is.

There’s a separate debate about whether he’s ever been “the best” QB in any given season, but he’s still probably top 10 right now, if barely, especially with Dak Prescott out with injury.

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**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\
**Post date:** [September 13, 2022, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-one-is-the-loneliest-number/971135/140 "2022-09-13T15:01:36Z")

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> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> If after going for it and succeeding, you still end up with a long field goal attempt, you’ve lost nothing and you’ve almost certainly shaved a few yards from a kick attempt.

If it succeeds, you’ve lost nothing, but there’s no guarantee it will succeed.

The two winning scenarios are:

> [@](#):
>
> Kick a 64-yard field goal.

OR

> [@](#):
>
> Convert 4th-and-5  
> AND  
> Kick a shorter field goal

I don’t honestly know the probabilities of any of those plays, but it’s not as cut-and-dried as people are making it out to be. They could either try one longshot play, or two plays with better odds _but they both must succeed_.

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