# Niger, Uranium and Plausible Deniability **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 6, 2003, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570 "2003-07-06T14:08:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/1 "2003-07-06T14:08:53Z")
This fella certainly makes it seem as if the Bush Admin had ample opportunity to know better about the Nigerien forgeries. The CIA is adamant that they sent a cable and informed the White House. **Debate** : Do you think that this and the related revelations about the “when” of the WH’s knowledge will be sufficient to puncture the plausible deniability of the WH and do you think that the American electorate will care? IMHO, Plausible deniability certainly hasn’t been punctured, but it will have to be called in to play. I don’t think that any signifigant number of Americans will care. History books will record these things and future generations will look back and say, “WTF?” while doing something more or less like themselves. > [@](#): > > [_What I Didn’t Find in Africa_](http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/06/opinion/06WILS.html?pagewanted=print&position=) > July 6, 2003 > By JOSEPH C. WILSON 4th > > Those news stories about that unnamed former envoy who went to Niger? That’s me. > > In February 2002, I was informed by officials at the Central Intelligence Agency that _Vice President Dick Cheney’s office had questions about a particular intelligence report_. > > In late **February 2002** … > > …I met with Ambassador Owens-Kirkpatrick at the embassy. For reasons that are understandable, the embassy staff has always kept a close eye on Niger’s uranium business. I was not surprised, then, when the ambassador told me that _she knew about the allegations of uranium sales to Iraq — and that she felt she had already debunked them_ in her reports to Washington. > > I spent the next **eight days** drinking sweet mint tea and meeting with dozens of people: current government officials, former government officials, people associated with the country’s uranium business. > > Before I left Niger, I briefed the ambassador on my findings, which were consistent with her own. I also shared my conclusions with members of her staff. In early March, I arrived in Washington and promptly provided a detailed briefing to the C.I.A. I later shared my conclusions with the _State Department African Affairs Bureau_. > > …there should be at least four documents… …the _ambassador’s report of my debriefing in Niamey_, a separate report written by the embassy staff, a C.I.A. report summing up my trip, and _a specific answer from the agency to the office of the vice president_ (this may have been delivered orally). …this is standard operating procedure. > > …in **December** , a month before the president’s address, the State Department had published a [fact sheet](http://usembassy.state.gov/mumbai/wwwhwashnews38.html) that mentioned the Niger case. > > Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/2 "2003-07-06T14:19:49Z")
I presume our usual suspect will be along to simultaneously impugn the statement and excuse the Administration. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/3 "2003-07-06T14:24:20Z")
Thank you for your contibution, **Collounsbury**. :rolleyes: For all the things that the administration could have said, this was one of the dumbest. They knew it was dishonest, and now it has been thoroughly debunked. I wish they had just said that we were going to kick Saddam in the teeth. Anything would have been preferable to stuff like this. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/4 "2003-07-06T14:28:36Z")
Ummm… “…while doing something more or less like \*_it_ themselves.” Slightly different connotation. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/5 "2003-07-06T14:28:41Z")
Ummm… “…while doing something more or less like **it** themselves.” Slightly different connotation. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/6 "2003-07-06T14:32:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Airman Doors, USAF \* > \*\* > I wish they had just said that we were going to kick Saddam in the teeth. Anything would have been preferable to stuff like this. \*\* I feel pretty much the same way about it. I wish that more Americans seemed concerned. I suspect that it won’t make even a hill of beans though. With all that there is available for anyone who can Google, I wonder about what there is for some one who has professional level access to various bits of info and docs. “Worse than a crime, it’s blunder.” ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/7 "2003-07-06T14:39:46Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Airman Doors, USAF \* > Thank you for your contibution, **Collounsbury**. :rolleyes: You’re very welcome. Would you like an ice cream as well? > [@](#): > > For all the things that the administration could have said, this was one of the dumbest. They knew it was dishonest, and now it has been thoroughly debunked. Well blind ideologues do tend to get themselves in binds. > [@](#): > > I wish they had just said that we were going to kick Saddam in the teeth. Anything would have been preferable to stuff like this. Actually a rationally concieved and executed strategy would have been even more preferable. However, that aside, we still get down to the fact that there is an occupation that is going rather badly, and needs to be fixed right quick. The duplicity of the pretexts should be quite clear to anyone but the usual suspect. ---
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/8 "2003-07-06T14:42:57Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > \*\* The duplicity of the pretexts should be quite clear to anyone but the usual suspect. \*\* They’re down to only one now? Poor guys. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/9 "2003-07-06T16:09:31Z")
[http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=172598&highlight=uranium](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=172598&highlight=uranium) Ah, memories! Well, **Scylla** , **Shodan** …what say you now? ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/10 "2003-07-06T16:32:44Z")
I’m guessing that you feel that the veneer of plausible deniability has been breached. Do you think that the American electorate will care in numbers large enough to be signifigant? ---
**Author:** ![Reeder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Reeder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reeder)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/11 "2003-07-06T17:08:33Z")
One should alway remember. When was the last presidential election that the American popular vote was won by a republican? Can you say 1988? I knew you could. It won’t take much to boot Bush out. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/12 "2003-07-06T17:12:09Z")
I’d love to, but don’t. I think he’ll get away with it. Case in point: when experts raised doubts about the dreaded mobile labs, GeeDubya blithely ignored them. They didn’t exist, they never spoke, he asserted in the Polish interviews that the WMD’s had been found, case closed. He avoids open press conferences like Dracula avoids sunlight, he cannot be made to answer. And he won’t. Now, of course, they are attempting to lower the bar one more time, now, we are looking for weapons “programs”. Any document, however dubioius, any piece of equipment, any testimony whatsoever will be held aloft like the Holy Grail. Most likely, he’ll skate. Has so far, with evidence piled up to the rafters. ---
**Author:** ![Tee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/73ab20/32.png) [@Tee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tee)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/13 "2003-07-06T17:17:23Z")
I’ve a question. The OP’s article mentions “allegations of sales of uranium to Iraq”, which the Ambassador felt she had debunked. The State Department’s fact sheet mentions Iraq’s “efforts to procure uranium from Niger.” Does this envoy state that Iraq had never attempted to buy uranium? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/14 "2003-07-06T17:51:57Z")
I don’t know where that might lead, **Tee**. After all, uranium does have its uses other than as a source of nuclear fuel. The question might only arise if Iraq had attempted to buy enough uranium to plausibly refine to weapons grade U-235, which most likely could not have avoided scrutiny, as witness the quote above: “For reasons that are understandable, the embassy staff has always kept a close eye on Niger’s uranium business.” ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/15 "2003-07-06T19:02:39Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Tee \* > \*\*I’ve a question. The OP’s article mentions “allegations of sales of uranium to Iraq”, which the Ambassador felt she had debunked. > > The State Department’s fact sheet mentions Iraq’s “efforts to procure uranium from Niger.” Does this envoy state that Iraq had never attempted to buy uranium? \*\* AFAIK, The envoy merely says that the report that he was sent to investigate came up severely lacking. He doesn’t address the whole of Iraq’s potential activities. There may be other evidence out there that suggests that Iraq tried to buy uranium, but it hasn’t been presented anywhere that I know of. The parties who have examined the documents in question say that the documents were forgeries. I don’t think that any one is making claims about “never.” All that these people appear to be discussing is the evidence that actually is available for discussion. It appears that there is no other evidence, (other than the debunked forgeries), of Iraq’s attempts to purchase uranium from Niger. At least none that’s come forth. If you know about some other evidence or set(s) of evidence, please introduce it for our perusal. Mr. Wilson’s wording says, “allegations of sales” and the State Dept says, “hiding their uranium procurement.” I’d say that they are both still talking about the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2003, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/16 "2003-07-06T21:55:44Z")
Did anyone other than the Bush and Blair admins sign off on the Nigerien documents as actionable intelligence? MI6? DIA? NIC? NE1? ---
**Author:** ![Tee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/73ab20/32.png) [@Tee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tee)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2003, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/17 "2003-07-07T00:36:41Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SimonX \* > \*\*If you know about some other evidence or set(s) of evidence, please introduce it for our perusal. > > Mr. Wilson’s wording says, “allegations of sales” and the State Dept says, “hiding their uranium procurement.” I’d say that they are both still talking about the same thing. \*\* no, I don’t know of any other evidence, but it’s not necessarily the same thing. [http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq\_wmd/Iraq\_Oct\_2002.htm](http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm) > [@](#): > > Although Saddam probably does not yet have nuclear weapons or sufficient material to make any, he remains intent on acquiring them. > > How quickly Iraq will obtain its first nuclear weapon depends on when it acquires sufficient weapons-grade fissile material. > > If Baghdad acquires sufficient weapons-grade fissile material from abroad, it could make a nuclear weapon within a year. > > Without such material from abroad, Iraq probably would not be able to make a weapon until the last half of the decade. So one can see why the CIA thinks someone should go to Niger to investigate. Evidently Niger was not selling any to Iraq. But here is the CIA later, October 2002, stating: “he remains intent on acquiring them” and suggesting the possibility of acquiring material from abroad. It’s a fair question I think. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2003, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/18 "2003-07-07T03:38:59Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > **You’re very welcome. Would you like an ice cream as well?** I **would** like an ice cream. Coconut? That’s my favorite. I want a motorcycle with a sidecar so I can take my daughter out for ice cream in it, but my wife doesn’t like the idea. I think going for ice cream in a sidecar would just about be the ultimate in coolness. The issue has been weighing heavily on my mind. What do you think? * * * Anyway, so we’re talking about this Niger/Uranium thing again, huh? So let’s see. What’s new here. The report **still** was not accurate. Well, that’s a surprise. People were **still** saying it wasn’t accurate before it got used. Some people were **still** saying it was accurate. Administration officials **still** deny they fucked up, say it was an honest mistake, and try to put as good a face on it as they can. Is that about it? What am I supposed to be saying? Can we talk about ice cream some more? ---
**Author:** ![Eolbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d07c76/32.png) [@Eolbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eolbo)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2003, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/19 "2003-07-07T03:45:31Z")
A slight hijack from the Antipodes The headlines here today [Canberra ‘knew of Iraq doubt’](http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/07/06/1057430076982.html) [PM denies being told weapon doubts](http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/07/07/1057430118796.html) [Australian dies after Iraq attack](http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/07/07/1057430109452.html) Sadly you can add our prime minister to the list of those who have gotten away with it scot free. /hijack off ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2003, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570/20 "2003-07-07T04:36:31Z")
I wonder what it _would_ take to convince strong Bush supporters that Administrative lying about affairs of State is _not_ acceptable. The fact that they used information that they knew to be false indicates to me that they _knew_ ahead of time that they could not persuade either the American public or the UN with just the truth. How many servicemen and women and journalists and Iraqis have to die before we know the real reason we are there? (And I’m not just talking about speculation.) I truly would feel this way no matter what the party affiliations of the liars are. **Airman** , I can’t imagine how those of you who have served in Iraq must feel knowing that your lives were put on the line for as yet undetermined reasons. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/niger-uranium-and-plausible-deniability/186570.md?page=2)