# NK missiles seem to be headed our way **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 28, 2017, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975 "2017-08-28T23:42:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2017, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/1 "2017-08-28T23:42:09Z")
North Korea is launching missiles at the rate of one every few weeks, and some are ICBMs. The latest one was launched over Japan and fell into the sea. That means the launch direction is towards the North American continent. Neither Japan nor the US took any action this time. So how can we tell the difference between these supposed tests and the real thing? Wait until one explodes over Nome or Redmond? How close do they have to come before we do something? [Relevant news article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html?utm_term=.825f5999aad9) ---
**Author:** ![Whatever4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@Whatever4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whatever4)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/2 "2017-08-29T00:01:03Z")
**How close do they have to come before we do something?** I’d say the cart section of one of You Know Whose golf courses. Gotta run. The bus to Hell is leaving and I want a window seat.:eek: Sorry, I just can’t take any more. ---
**Author:** ![sevenwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6de8d8/32.png) [@sevenwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sevenwood)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/3 "2017-08-29T01:12:49Z")
It is my (non-expert) understanding that the missiles that NK have been launching so far have far too high a trajectory for them to be able reach the US mainland. Presumably if NK launches a missile with a lower trajectory the alarm bells would start going off. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/4 "2017-08-29T02:28:12Z")
But a lower trajectory doesn’t mean it can make it to the US mainland. It would have to be an ICBM, too, so whatever detection methods are in use has to know this, and know it within seconds of a launch. Can this be done? ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/5 "2017-08-29T16:11:17Z")
For context, the DPRK also fired a missile over Japan in [1998](https://www.theguardian.com/world/1998/sep/01/northkorea) and [2009](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7982874.stm), and a missile into Japanese waters in [2016](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-idUSKCN10D2Q8). There were some tests in 2006, and they may have put an object into orbit in [2012](http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/11/world/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch/index.html). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/6 "2017-08-29T16:30:14Z")
My WAG is that if a North Korean ICBM came flying over the CONUS 48 states, it wouldn’t be a first-time thing out of the blue - that would be extraordinarily foolish. Rather, it would be the last in a line of gradual progression - maybe one over Alaska, one over Hawaii, one in Pacific waters near Vancouver, and finally, one over the US itself - at which point the US would know, “OK, this is likely just a test, we won’t do anything about it except maybe intercept it with an interceptor.” ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/7 "2017-08-29T16:41:53Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > How close do they have to come before we do something? With President Trump, I imagine a missile that lands in US territorial waters or on US soil, even if there’s not a live warhead, stands an excellent chance of provoking a military response. ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/8 "2017-08-29T16:48:57Z")
Why aren’t we using all these test-fires as target practice for THAAD? Are they not coming close enough? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/9 "2017-08-29T17:15:40Z")
> [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](#): > > Why aren’t we using all these test-fires as target practice for THAAD? Are they not coming close enough? Probably out of a desire to avoid antagonizing Kim further, but I don’t know if they’ve been within intercept envelopes for THAAD or not. There’s also a possibility that we’re not confident enough we can successfully intercept the missile to risk an embarrassing failure. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/10 "2017-08-29T17:23:04Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > There’s also a possibility that we’re not confident enough we can successfully intercept the missile to risk an embarrassing failure. Better an embarrassing failure in peacetime than a life-losing failure in wartime. I say test the THAAD/Aegis now and work out all the bugs/kinks. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/11 "2017-08-29T17:25:15Z")
> [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](#): > > Why aren’t we using all these test-fires as target practice for THAAD? Are they not coming close enough? So that North Korea doesn’t know if they’re capable of getting past it. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/12 "2017-08-29T17:31:48Z")
Ballistic missiles are called that because, for most of their path, they’re ballistic. That is, they have a brief period when the rockets are firing, and then Newton’s in the driver’s seat for the rest of the way. Which means that, once the rockets stop firing, it’s really easy to calculate where it’s going to land. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/13 "2017-08-29T17:33:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Better an embarrassing failure in peacetime than a life-losing failure in wartime. I say test the THAAD/Aegis now and work out all the bugs/kinks. That’s one consideration, certainly. Another one is that the simple act of blowing Kim’s missiles out of the sky, assuming we have the capability, might be enough to trigger a life-losing war. I’m actually on the side of “it’d be really awesome if we’d intercept his missiles”, but I understand there are other considerations at play as well. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/14 "2017-08-29T18:25:24Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > That’s one consideration, certainly. Another one is that the simple act of blowing Kim’s missiles out of the sky, assuming we have the capability, might be enough to trigger a life-losing war. Conversely, the simple act of NOT blowing Kim’s missiles out of the sky could trigger a disaster if it was headed for Seattle with a nuke in the nose. Do we want to take that chance? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/15 "2017-08-29T18:38:05Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Conversely, the simple act of NOT blowing Kim’s missiles out of the sky could trigger a disaster if it was headed for Seattle with a nuke in the nose. Do we want to take that chance? I believe that the missile tracking and warning systems are far more advanced than the defensive systems. Until such time as these warning systems confirm a missile on track to Seattle, the defense systems should remain on stand-by. The risk is in using them on a test projectile headed for the middle of the China sea and the shoot down attempt failing. This would send a clear signal to NK that the defense systems are vulnerable and thus embolden the enemy. Let’s not forget that they are not just testing their own missile technology but trying to provoke the US and allies into response in order to test their defense capabilities as well. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/16 "2017-08-29T19:12:43Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Conversely, the simple act of NOT blowing Kim’s missiles out of the sky could trigger a disaster if it was headed for Seattle with a nuke in the nose. Do we want to take that chance? There’s a wholly-inappropriate joke in there, but I’ll leave it alone. No, if we actually verified that it was heading for Seattle, as opposed to the middle-of-nowhere Pacific Ocean, yes, I’d hope we’d do everything we could to intercept it before we arrived, whether we know if it has a nuke onboard or not. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nk-missiles-seem-to-be-headed-our-way/794975/17 "2017-08-29T19:29:55Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Conversely, the simple act of NOT blowing Kim’s missiles out of the sky could trigger a disaster if it was headed for Seattle with a nuke in the nose. Do we want to take that chance? It’s not really the risk you seem to think it is We’d know it was headed to Seattle not just that it went up and a general direction. We’ve got [ground based early warning radars](https://gizmodo.com/5989481/there-isnt-an-icbm-around-that-can-sneak-past-this-radar-array) that exist to do that along with track satellites. We’ve also got a pretty cool deployable sea based phased array radar system to supplement those ground based radars - [SBX-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea-based_X-band_Radar). In early January guess where it was [deployed](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defense-northkorea-idUSKBN14V2TT) to watch? 😉 From then SECDEF Ash Carter in the story about the SBX-1 deployment: > [@](#): > > On Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the U.S. military might monitor a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test and gather intelligence rather than destroy it, as long as the launch did not pose a threat. > > “If the missile is threatening, it will be intercepted. If it’s not threatening, we won’t necessarily do so,” Carter said, > > “Because it may be more to our advantage to, first of all, save our interceptor inventory, and, second, to gather intelligence from the flight, rather than do that (intercept the ICBM) when it’s not threatening.” We’ve faced a ballistic missile threat for decades. Professionals have thought about how to get good information to support decision making without just seeing where it landed. This is not our first rodeo.