Because it’s highly unusual for so many NK subs to all leave at the same time, and because NK has ramped things up by moving artillery into the DMZ for the first time since the armistice. Regardless, its the job of the US Navy to know the locations of as many potentially hostile subs as possible, they routinely track Chinese subs on patrols.
The real danger in this situation is if Lil Kim is not really in control, or fears for his hold on the North, plus the North seems genuinely afraid of the loud speaker broadcasts resuming. Kim needs to come out of this looking strong in order to hold onto power, personally I’m not expecting the talks will go well and that the North will end up doing artillery strikes on the loud speaker locations.
What happens then really depends on the South’s / US response.
The callousness of this comment aside, I saw a documentary recently where it was stated that the US specifically decided against using nukes in Korea because the uneven, hilly, mountainous terrain would have minimized their effectiveness to the point that dropping a nuke wouldn’t do much more damage than using conventional bombs.
I was in South Korea in 1976-77. At one point we could have gone to war, when two American officers leading a work party of South Koreans, at the DMZ, were killed by North Koreans. Hacked to death with axes.
It wasn’t all that long before I was set to be transferred back to the US. I made a brief radio phone call to my parents, confirming my travel plans, but before I was allowed to put through the call I was told this. “If anyone asks you how things are going over here, just say everything’s fine.”
That’s when I started to get really nervous. We couldn’t leave post, worked our jobs twelve hours on, twelve off, all week, and were on a state of high alert.
Nothing that happens over there would surprise me.
Certainly. Because the 90% (guesstimating, feel free to apply accurate numbers) civilian population with no input in the matter, totally deserve to be reduced to ash.
I’m guessing you (1) Do not live within 5,000 miles of the Korean Peninsula and (2) are not of age to serve in Military combat. I fully admit those conclusions could be wrong, but I tend to find that people making that type of comment meet those criteria.
The problem is, the blood that will be shed will be mosty Korean, and at least at the outset it may well be heavily S. Korean. Unless you are Korean (which you may be), I think that they should be the ones to determine if ‘it si time this all ended’, since it their country and soldiers that will suffer (initially, at least) the most.
If you want to know how seriously the USG is taking it, someone keep an eye on US Air Force and Navy deployments to theat region. If we suddenly move a Wing of F16E’s or a carrier battle Group or two that direction, then I would start getting nervous.
Given as a working hypothesis that silenus’ limbic system is connecting to his forebrain, thus rendering him capable of thought, that his tongue was placed firmly in his cheek when he wrote that. ‘Whoosing’, I believe is the term used here. Otherwise he is a dolt and a Trump supporter…but i repeat myself (thank you, Sam Clemens)
But if he was serious, then your conclusions (and others above) are quite correct. The only way nukes would be used in this case would be with the consulation and ‘blessing’ of the PRC (and probably the Russians, since they also share a portion of the border with N. Korea, IIRC) and for highly specific targets.
The difference ‘this time’ (if it comes to that, now or in the foreseeable future), is that this is a much different PRC than in 1951, where they were still consolidating their vicotry over the Nationalists in 1947, were heavily suspicious of the US, and had no diplomatic (or really, any) relationship with us (and IIRC, old Dugout Doug (McArthur) had been making noises about not stoppiing at the border).
Today there is communication, trade and if not a warm and cosy relationship, at least there is one between recognized peers. China finds having N. Korea as a ‘threat’ to the South (and for that matter, Japan and others) to be a benefit; but if that ‘mad dog’ slips the leash and causes potential economic damage, they are likely to be talking to the US and we to them about the ‘limits’.
I could easily see the border areas of N. Korea (especially where the nuclear sites are) becoming a Chinese ‘protectorate’ while the rest of the North is absorbed back into a single Korea.
Of course, 20-30 years later, when a united Korea asks the protectorate back…
The admirals of the Soviet Union declared North Korea’s prize submarine to be obsolete back in 1961, and Western experts stubbornly point out its inability to sink enemy vessels.
50 years of technology between their prize boat and ours.
*Designed in the 1950s, the vessel was in production for the Soviet Union for only 48 months until being succeeded by nuclear-powered submarines 53 years ago.
*
I doubt their crews are anywhere near as efficient or well trained as modern western submarine crews are.
Perhaps Mr. Kim is making a cold rational decision that the US is war and battle adverse and a bloody conflict of short duration will gain them some advantage.
*The North Korean vessel is a “basic” model with “virtually no anti-submarine performance,” says IHS Jane’s Fighting Ships.
*
From the same source. If you’re referring to the “even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while” theory of naval combat, you might get one. Otherwise, their navy won’t survive a week if combat.
Once again… we aren’t talking about getting into a sea war with NorKo. There’s little question their rusting tin cans wouldn’t survive an encounter with a well-armed Coast Guard cutter, much less anything the USN or other world naval forces could bring to bear. (I suspect the USN knows exactly where all those subs are.)
But then, 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing and the OK City bombing could have all been stopped with a .38 Special… if we’d known. I think NorKo could do a fearsome amount of damage and pile up terrible casualties with their old, rusty weapons before the world can draw that .38 on them.