Suffice it to say that North Korea does not have any conventional military technology that represents a serious threat to a carrier battle group, as opposed to countries like Russia and China that have an array of missile and torpedo capabilities that are concerning.
North Korea would probably struggle to hold at risk any military ships under circumstances beyond that which resulted in the sinking of the Cheonan, in which a midget submarine managed to find a corvette very near its shores, fire a torpedo of relatively modest capabilities, at a target that was not expecting an attack. There’s no reason to expect that a U.S. carrier would find itself in a remotely similar position.
That leaves North Korea with relying on crazy, off-the-wall ideas that probably have very high risk and very low probability of success. Who knows, maybe they could dream up some whacky scheme, but they will probably have significant problems even finding a carrier in a vast ocean. North Korea has basically no space capabilities, and I’m not aware of significant over-the-horizon radar capabilities. Kinda hard to carry out a “sharks with frickin’ lasers on their heads” type of scheme if you can’t even figure out which direction the sharks should go.
Even in friendly waters, a carrier still wouldn’t be anchored. Take-offs and landings are easier when the carrier is steaming full speed ahead into the wind, so they’ll keep moving even absent any security considerations. And full speed ahead is damn fast, for a modern carrier.
Modern diesel-electric submarines are very quiet when operating on the electrical batteries. Modern submarines are not what North Korea has, it has about 30 Romeo-class submarines. The Romeo-class was produced by the Soviet Union from 1957-61, the ones North Korea uses are locally assembled kits of Chinese knock-off copies. Quiet isn’t a word I’d use to describe them, particularly the part where they have to get into place in advance of where they think a CVBG might be headed.
Even the rusty old romeo boats, once on station and not moving, can be damned quiet. I’ll grant you that it they were moving at speed, yes, they’d likely be spotted, and soon. But all DPRK has to do is make a reasonably accurate guess about where the CVBG is likley going to pass, and place a boat there a few days in advance. On just station-keeping alone, they’ve got (just) enough endurance to sit and wait.
Once within a certain radius, they can close the distance - it will take a few minutes to detect them, categorize them as to threat, and maybe even longer to move to prosecute them. By then, well, it could easily be too late - “close” counts with nukes - even relatively small ones.
Ok, now that everyone, even those who should know better have had their "The NORKS are dumb, ha ha ha"moment lets look at their actual inventory., both MiG-29 and Su-25 have an anti-ship capability, and potentially so does the MiG-27 and J-7. In addition, they have H-5 bombers which could be modified to carry anti-ship missiles. Their inventory includes both Kh-31and Kh-35missiles, which these platforms could carry.
Would it be easy? Hell no, USN carrier groups are well defended, but yes they absolutely have the ability to find and hit a carrier and the threat is real… Its more likely that they’ll fail, but to say that at best “they might scratch the paint” as some very remarkably ill-informed poster says up-thread is silly at best and hubristic at worst.
Since if even one or two AShM’s hit the carrier, that ship and its crew is in for a lousy morning, I suspect in a shooting the ship will operate outside the range of these missiles, which will, in turn, reduce its own effectiveness. Too much risk for too little reward otherwise.
CVBGs are going to have the advantage of stand-off distance, leaving a lot of space to attrite the assault, and requiring greater numbers to achieve a successful strike.
IMO, it would take a full-out alpha strike to ensure the job was done thoroughly. Not impossible, but unlikely, in that it would leave the mainland essentially defenseless.
“Rusty” is a very operative word here - the boats themselves were assembled mostly in the 1980s and are a 1950s design. That makes them 40 year old boats using a 60 year old design. They weren’t even very quiet boats by the standards of their day, getting on station means having to run on the diesels and maintaining station means having to snorkel and run the diesels to charge the batteries, both of which are big “kick me” signs. They are going to have to make very good guesses about exactly where the carrier is going to pass over, since they have no chance of closing in at all, much less of closing in quietly - they have a top speed of only 15.2kts surfaced, 13kts submerged, much slower than a CVBG at cruising speed. If the CVBG isn’t going to pass directly over them, they are never going to get into position for a shot or a nuclear suicide.
They also appear to be being cannibalized to keep some of them in operation - estimates are 22 or fewer left operational out of 77 delivered.
See above; they are not going to be able to close the distance. Close is actually pretty far with nukes at sea. The ASROC used to carry a 10kt nuclear depth charge, its maximum range was only 12 miles and it was expected (and tested) to be used much closer than that from the firing vessel. Picture of a test fire here.
I agree the idea that if they got hits it’d just scratch the paint was/is stupid, but I find your characterization of the thread inaccurate. I explained why I think surface ship/aerial assault isn’t likely to be successful, and don’t think you understand the importance of pilot training and how actual systems inside a plane can make a huge difference in its effectiveness, or how hard it is against the most advanced technology to just casually bomb stuff.
The U.S. gave pause to engage with Assad and test the Russian’s anti-aircraft equipment there, the chances of these questionable capability North Korean planes succeeded is very, very low. I pointed out I absolutely think North Korea could sink a carrier, the odds are just low given what we know about their current missile technology–but my point was that land-based anti-ship missile launchers are probably the best chance they have at present, it’s just hard because our carriers don’t hang out that close to North Korea all things considered, and does have proven anti-missile tech in the battle group, not to mention we’re likely pushing the envelope in how far out the NK anti-ship missiles can effectively/reliably hit targets. In the scope of the ocean, carriers are small, and they don’t stop moving. Hitting them isn’t easy for a power which hasn’t perfected precision missile technology.
But I did literally say “if they even get a few hits that’s bad news for a carrier.”
I dunno your naval experience. I’ve spent my days and years in submarines.
Anti-Submarine warfare is not magic; the bad guy gets a vote, as do the sea conditions. A crafty sub driver is as big or bigger a menace as their boat - or as one my skippers said “If it comes to war, I’ll kill all the slow thinkers first.” It takes time to recognize, identify, categorize, localize, and prosecute a target, not to mention dealing with any ROE questions which may have to be bounced upstairs - time with which our putative suicide sub has to work.
ASROC had a relatively small 10KT warhead; I think we can count on the DPRK to place their largest feasable warhead in any putative submarine; we know they’ve managed 45kt. The Baker Test (Operation Crossroads), at half that, created a base surge 3.5 miles in diameter - Meaning a mission-kill at a distance of nearly two miles (getting washed down with high-velocity radioactively-contaminated water will end your deployment right then and there) - And that’s with half the weapon that we KNOW the DPRK can deploy - They might have larger.
NOT saying this is a guarantee - I do have a lot of respect for the shipmates at sea and their skills (even those skimmer pukes!), but this is, IMO, the DPRK’s best shot at a kill or mission-kill, whilst retaining their airforce more or less intact.
Of course, they might try a hybrid attack - nuclear suicide submarine, followed immediately with an aerial alpha strike.
Unlike its leadership, I doubt NK’s military is all that stupid. Lets say you get the money shot, and manage to sink and possibly kill 6000 US service personel. Game over man, even dropping dead kim’s body in front of a US embassy is not gonna stop whats coming.
That’s what literally happens in the video game Call of Duty: Ghosts. An American carrier group is intercepted by two opposing carrier groups and the enemies only response is to send helicopters full of dudes to fast-rope onto the deck.
I couldn’t remember where I saw the fast rope insertion. Must of been at a relative’s house and their kids were playing that game.
Realistically our carrier is safe from NK attack.
I hope we don’t underestimate NK troops. They had great success in 1950. Pushing UN forces back to the Pusan Perimeter. That battle was nearly lost. The UN’s stand was the turning point of that war.
NK can’t win a war. But they can inflict a lot of damage. Seoul is a major player in manufacturing and trade. It probably would be destroyed.
I’d say a carrier is fairly safe on day 2 of the war. The problem comes in during the tense peace leading to the first overt act.
Our history is full of situations where confrontations turned violent. Some were well handled, some were not. I recently watched a youtube tht was the Gulf of Sidra event where USN F-14s engaged and destroyed Libyan SU-22s. As the situation developed the F-14 pilots became increasingly agitated while HQ on the carrier kept telling them to not shoot. Eventually as things got time critical the F-14 lead basically decided to violate orders and preemptively defend himself real offensively. The Pentagon & administration backed him up later.
The folks in CIC in the destroyer screen and aboard the carrier are going to have two very conflicting priorities: 1) don’t let the ships get attacked, and 2) Don’t do anything violent unless its 100% proof-positive necessary and authorized by HHQ.
On day 2 of he war the restraint of issue 2) goes away. On day 0 that causes a massive reduction in defensive readiness to fire and defensive decision-making.
The North Koreans are never going to be able to out-tech the United States. Their only hope of success is a cheap swarm attack. Launch a bunch of missiles, torpedoes, small craft, mini-subs and jets. Figure most of them will be destroyed. But if there’s enough of them a few will get through and inflict serious damage.
With what - they don’t have enough nukes to equip a swarm. Anything that gets through the defensive screen (which I still doubt) is only likely to have some conventional explosives on board, and is unlikely to cause significant damage.
You really think the concept hasn’t been evaluated and prepared for?
Aren’t all these scenarios presented thus far hypothetical examples of NK committing suicide? Sure, they could inflict a lot of damage, but there’s no way they could ever come out ahead or win anything. Are they, in fact, suicidal?
Have you ever heard about Millennium Challenge 2002? It was a naval exercise in 2002.
A Marine Corps General was supposed to be defending an invasion site from an amphibious attack by the Navy. He devised a plan to have speed boats attack the Navy ships. The weapons on the Navy ships were designed to attack big combat vessels not a mass of small maneuverable speed boats. The Navy “sank” a lot of the boats but not all of them. The boats that survived “sank” sixteen Navy ships, including a carrier.
The referees decided the attack didn’t count. They ruled that all the ships that had been “sank” and personnel who had been “killed” were back in action. The Marine Corps General was ordered to stop using any unconventional or unexpected tactics.
Bingo! NK won’t attack a US carrier, because it would be Game Over Man. If there is one thing Dear Fat Leader loves and that’s his power. Sink or use a nuke against a US carrier force and The Fat One’s days of power are over.
Honestly, I don’t think it’s going to be a contest if the US and NK ever meet in combat at sea.
Ancient cold war knock offs against modern carrier battle groups? Would have to be some incredible tactical planning that even then has a slim chance of succeeding and likely involves some kind of suicide mission (as many have said here).
NK just simply isn’t equipped for something like that.
