# No Pearl Habor. When does America enter the war? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 12, 2012, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060 "2012-07-12T23:42:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/21 "2012-07-13T15:32:51Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Hah! I forgot that that happened on Dec 8, 1941. > > A whole day later than Pearl Harbor. Or was it the same day in the US, one day ahead in the Philippines? The news of the Pearl Harbor attack reached the PI around 3AM local time, December 8. Invasion of northern Luzon (Vigan/Aparri/Gonzaga) occured 10 December. Air attacks occured on 8 December against Clark Field around 1240PM, catching the majority of the Army Air Force on the ground. (It had been aloft in the morning, but fog over Formosa delayed the Japanese air strike.) > **[Philippines campaign (1941–1942)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Philippines_(1941%E2%80%9342))** > > United States > Japanese source:11,225 > US estimate:17,000–19,000 Guam was snapped up on December 8 a few hours after news of PH. ## Wake Island was bombed by aircraft on December 8. (Also after PH.) I think FDR would have pressed Congress for a DoW in December, assuming no attacks were made on American territory, with the Japanese “only” invading Malaya and Borneo. I have no idea exactly how difficult a political battle that Congressional debate would be, but I think it would have been pretty tough. It wasn’t an election year, but maybe FDR would have been able to “sell it” to the public as helping a neighbor who was laying on the ground being kicked by bullies. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/22 "2012-07-13T15:41:35Z")
I can’t see where she had much of an influence at all, [since she was only 4 years old at the time.](http://www.ancestry.com/1940-census/usa/New-York/Pearl-Haber_62vj4) ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/23 "2012-07-13T16:14:10Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I can’t see where she had much of an influence at all, [since she was only 4 years old at the time.](http://www.ancestry.com/1940-census/usa/New-York/Pearl-Haber_62vj4) The Diaper that launched a thousand ships. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/24 "2012-07-13T16:25:24Z")
The real question is did we **want** to get into a war with Japan? In WWI we were looking for any excuse so the Zimmerman Telegram and Lusitania were enough. I think the the US would have resolved the invasion of the Philipines through diplomatic means than war. ---
**Author:** ![txtumbleweed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/278dde/32.png) [@txtumbleweed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/txtumbleweed)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/25 "2012-07-14T06:28:58Z")
Recently finished Parshall and Tully _Shattered Sword_ which takes a look at the Battle of Midway from the Japanese side. Excellent read and anyone interested in the Pacific War should check it out. > [@](#): > > **Shattered Sword p24** > Yamamoto had insisted in 1941 that if Japan chose to capture the resources of the south through war, that war also had to include the United States. Furthermore, he believed that the US Navy had to be dealt a crippling blow at the outset so as to buy time for Japan to carry out its operations in the southern campign areas without opposition. In this view, he was opposed by several senior members of the Naval General Staff, including its head, Admiral Nagano Osami. Nagano was of the opinion that the United States would find it very difficult to go to war if Japan refrained from an outright attack. He reasoned (correctly) that President Franklin D Roosevelt would have a difficult time rallying sufficient support for a _causus belli_ based only on Japanese attacks British and Dutch colonial holdings, as American public opinion was decidedly ambivalent about defending such interests. Unfortunately, Parshall and Tully don’t offer any cites in that quoted paragraph, so I don’t know where the fact vs opinion line is or where their insight into Japanese pre-war debate comes from. They go on that while Nagano’s reasoning was sound, Yamamoto and his staff threatened to resign if they didn’t get their way. So the attack on Pearl Harbor was approved. I agree with Nagano’s assessment of US public opinion. As I understand it, the US still had a very strong isolationist streak, despite the low level shooting war with Germany in the Atlantic. General opinion seemed to be we would do what we could to support Britain, short of all out war. Without a direct and deliberate attack on US forces (including the Phillipines), I don’t see any way that Roosevelt could muster congressional support for a war with Japan over European possessions in the Pacific. I think a continued trade embargo and support to China would be about the worst Japan could expect. ---
**Author:** ![Ele\_the\_Stoic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/4bbf92/32.png) [@Ele\_the\_Stoic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ele_the_Stoic)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/26 "2012-07-14T07:36:32Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Instead the Japanese just Take over French Indo-china, and the various Dutch and British possessions, just like they did IRL. They just dont attack America . > > The American possessions gained Japan nothing but headaches. It was mainly the Dutch oil they needed. This is the big point, I think - I’m assuming by “no pearl harbor” we can reasonably assume they don’t make the mistake of instead just pearl harboring the Philippines. The Dutch, British, and French couldn’t defend their holdings with the goings-on in Europe, and given America’s hesitance when the countries themselves were invaded, there’s little likelihood of congress letting us get involved because their\* overseas territories\* are being attacked. The war in Europe plays out largely as it had before, with Normandy being that much bloodier, but as previous posters have mentioned, we were de facto at war with Germany anyway. Maybe we would have already declared war with Germany or they against us by then though, and Japan would perhaps just pay lip service to their alliance with Germany by lightly harassing the Philippines with the occasional sail-by shooting, without intent to conquer and explain it away to Germany by saying they were busy in China or the Indies. Either way, I think Japan fares a lot better than it ended up faring, provided Congress doesn’t turn around after the European theater’s curtain starts to fall and decide to put a lot of energy in the Pacific theater to punish Nazi allies like our attacks on Italy. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/27 "2012-07-14T09:27:29Z")
I disagree with the shattered sword senario. A general war in the Far East would almost certainly draw the US in. Nagaumo was day dreaming if he thought otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![txtumbleweed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/278dde/32.png) [@txtumbleweed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/txtumbleweed)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/28 "2012-07-14T15:25:09Z")
**AK84,** Why would a general war in the Far East draw the United States in? There is nothing out there resource or material-wise worth risking war over from the US-view. Even for the Japanese, many of the islands they took were more white elephant than anything. What resources did they gain out of Wake, Guam, and Saipan? Bases yes, but bases that had to be supplied and then the merchant ships sailing back home empty. Mainland Asia was a different story, but Japan had occupied Korea and had been fighting China since the mid-Thirties to little reaction by the United States. We supplied China and helped create the 1st American Volunteer Group (The Flying Tigers) but we weren’t going to send troops over there. We had much closer ties to Europe than to Asia and were unwilling to do more for the British than loan money, send supplies, and help keep the oceans passable. Public opinion was dead set against sending American boys overseas to fight for European powers. No reason to believe we’d send them out to die in the Pacific to protect Europe’s colonies. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/29 "2012-07-14T17:22:17Z")
Firstly I think that you are overemphasizing public opinion, it had become less and less isolationist in the years sins 1939. Secondly, the the Far East the worlds primary sources if manybraw materials ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/30 "2012-07-14T17:26:02Z")
With all the bra materials involved, you’d have the women lined up in support! ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/31 "2012-07-14T17:39:21Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Firstly I think that you are overemphasizing public opinion, it had become less and less isolationist in the years sins 1939. Secondly, the the Far East the worlds primary sources if manybraw materials yeah, sorry damned iPad. To repeat, the FarEast was the source of many of the primary raw materials used in industry, rubber and tin for instance, and also was a major source of oil. Moreover, if the US did not fight, it would have essentially surrendered the Far East,first to the Japanese and then when the inevitable counter attack came, to the British, which would have overturned one of the greatest success of US diplomacy of the post WWI period, the recognition by the British of US primacy in the Pacific. Also in June 1940, the US was in no condition to fight, the army was smaller than Romanias and there was a shortage in nearly every arm. The Navy was the worlds second largest, but mostly consisted of old WWI era battlewagons and the a handful of modern carriers (the Yorktowns were only just entering service). By December 1941 the US had entered into a massive rearmament programme. The Army had grown to about 2.5 million men and counting. The Navy had laid down 12 new carriers and there were 10 battleships and battlecruisers being built or planned alongwith god knows how many cruisers and destroyers. The US was a country preparing to fight whatever the President may say about “all aid short of war” and the fact is the US would have entered the war with 6 to 12 months of 7/12/41 and everyone in any position of power anywhere knew it. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/32 "2012-07-14T22:48:49Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > I disagree with the shattered sword senario. A general war in the Far East would almost certainly draw the US in. Nagaumo was day dreaming if he thought otherwise. Indeed. By 1941 the Gallup polls were showing that Americans were increasingly resigned to going to war. We weren’t about to just jump in without cause, but it was obvious that neutrality at all costs wasn’t in the American mentality. [http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201941.htm](http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201941.htm) ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/33 "2012-07-14T23:06:56Z")
> [@Mr.Miskatonic](#): > > Indeed. By 1941 the Gallup polls were showing that Americans were increasingly resigned to going to war. We weren’t about to just jump in without cause, but it was obvious that neutrality at all costs wasn’t in the American mentality. > > [http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201941.htm](http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201941.htm) Neutrality at all costs? No. But in that poll it was still 12% go to war vs. 88% don’t go. It would have taken something very significant to change that. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/34 "2012-07-14T23:14:12Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Assuming Japan doesn’t attack the USA at all? Never. The USA just keep upping its aid to GB, increasing “patrol zones” and what-not. This, in itself might be enough to let the Allies win. D-Day would probably never have happened in this scenario. Much of Europe might still be occupied. ---
**Author:** ![txtumbleweed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/278dde/32.png) [@txtumbleweed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/txtumbleweed)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/35 "2012-07-15T04:11:52Z")
That’s an interesting poll and a good find. As 1941 went on, it appears the US public was resigned to the fact that war with Japan was likely. But based on answers to questions of supporting Britain against Germany and the fact few wanted to get involved in Europe (sadly, no direct: Would you vote to go to war with Japan?), I think it bolsters the case that without a direct attack on American forces, the United States would choose diplomatic and economic pressure for quite sometime in preference to direct conflict. If you don’t want to dig through the poll, here are the results on question of Japan: > [@](#): > > FEBRUARY 24 > JAPAN > Interviewing Date 2/16-21/41 > Survey #230-T Question #7a > Do you think the United States should try to keep Japan from seizing the Dutch East Indies and Singapore? > Yes… 56% > No… 24 > No opinion… 20 > > Interviewing Date 2/16-21/41 > Survey #230-T Question #7b > Do you think the United States should risk war with Japan, if necessary, in order to keep Japan from taking the Dutch East Indies and Singapore? > Yes… 39% > No… 46 > No opinion… 15 > > Interviewing Date 10/24-29/41 > Survey #251-K Question #9 > Should the United States take steps now to prevent Japan from becoming more powerful, even if this means risking a war with Japan? > Yes… 64% > No… 25 > No opinion… 11 > > DECEMBER 10 > JAPAN > Interviewing Date 11/27-12/1/41 > Survey #254-K Question #4 > Do you think the United States will go to war against Japan sometime in the near future? > Yes… 52% > No…27 > No opinion…21 > > DECEMBER 23 > THREAT TO AMERICA’S FUTURE > Interviewing Date 12/12-17/41 > Survey #255 Question #6 > Which country is the greater threat to America’s future — Germany or Japan? > Germany… 64% > Japan… 15 > Equal threats… 15 > No opinion… 6 ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/36 "2012-07-15T07:33:07Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Also in June 1940, the US was in no condition to fight, the army was smaller than Romanias and there was a shortage in nearly every arm. The Navy was the worlds second largest, but mostly consisted of old WWI era battlewagons and the a handful of modern carriers (the Yorktowns were only just entering service). > > By December 1941 the US had entered into a massive rearmament programme. The Army had grown to about 2.5 million men and counting. The Navy had laid down 12 new carriers and there were 10 battleships and battlecruisers being built or planned alongwith god knows how many cruisers and destroyers. The US was a country preparing to fight whatever the President may say about “all aid short of war” and the fact is the US would have entered the war with 6 to 12 months of 7/12/41 and everyone in any position of power anywhere knew it. The USA had a small army as the thought was the Navy could protect the USA. And indeed, even tho many of the battleships were a little old, the same could be said of most navies. There was nothing wrong with the US Navy at that time, it was certainly in the top 3. And again, unless one of the Axis powers attacks the USA, the USA would not have gone to war. True, some of what the USA was doing was just short of war- in fact woudl have been a solid cause for war- and in fact FDR was trying to bait the Germans into attacking us- all true. But the fact still remains- Hitler just wasn’t biting. If no attack on the USA, the USA just sends more and more aid, and FDR continues to bait Hitler (and to a lesser extent Tojo) more and more. ---
**Author:** ![Ele\_the\_Stoic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/4bbf92/32.png) [@Ele\_the\_Stoic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ele_the_Stoic)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060/37 "2012-07-15T07:37:54Z")
> [@txtumbleweed](#): > > What resources did they gain out of Wake, Guam, and Saipan? Bases yes, but bases that had to be supplied and then the merchant ships sailing back home empty. Interesting… Makes me wonder how many of them were only captured specifically as forward defense posts against expected US assault on Japan. > [@Mr.Miskatonic](#): > > [http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201941.htm](http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup%201941.htm) Very interesting… But pretty weird, too. Yes, people should be able to protest for more money… But if you complain too much, the government should be allowed to take over? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-pearl-habor-when-does-america-enter-the-war/628060.md?page=1)