# No, we don't all need to "get it eventually" **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 8, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344 "2020-04-08T14:34:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/41 "2020-04-09T01:29:49Z")
> [@sitchensis](#): > > How will their population be any safer 6 months from now when they stop doing that? Why would they stop? It is an imposition on travellers, but that is all. Island states with the ability to control travel are in a good position to run test and quarantine as a medium term strategy - so long as there are enough tests done and the number of cases is low and remains low. Eventually everybody is waiting for an effective vaccine. But some countries are much better placed to be able to wait than others. ---
**Author:** ![Isosleepy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/isosleepy/32/479_2.png) [@Isosleepy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isosleepy)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/42 "2020-04-09T01:30:16Z")
People keep ignoring the same thing. You don’t need 100 % perfect isolation to manage this. You need enough to keep the transmission rate below 1, on average. The best way to do this, as it has been with many, many outbreaks before, is identify, quarantine and trace (trace those the infected has been in contact with, them test them, if positive quarantine and trace, etc etc). For that you need a shitload of test kits, sure. But the argument: “ we can’t manage 100% isolation, so fuck it” is bullshit, because that is not even remotely the goal. Again: How to reduce transmission? -minimize contact of infected with susceptible people. (Social distance, and identify, quarantine and trace) -reduce transmission when contact does occur. ( masks, washing hands, ppe for front-line personnel) -Eventually, through immunity. Ideally through vaccination ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/43 "2020-04-09T01:37:34Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > So, there is not one farmer in all of China’s 2,607 mile border who isn’t sneaking into Mongolia to tussle in the hay with his neighbor’s daughter? You’re absolutely sure? China has had experience for many decades restricting travel of the populace. That is one of the things that allowed them to succeed in containing the outbreak. Containment does not need to be perfect once you know what you are looking for. A random person managing to get infected may lead to an isolated outbreak. But unlike when it first hit, doctors are going to be primed to look out for people with symptoms. And can test even the asymptomatic. There is a reasonable chance they can track and contain. When it first hit, the first clue was clusters of atypical pneumonia deaths. That meant that the infection had been in the community for quite some time. Nothing is perfect, but that was then and this is now. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/44 "2020-04-09T03:03:35Z")
> [@Isosleepy](#): > > we can’t manage 100% isolation, so fuck it” is bullshit, because that is not even remotely the goal. So, Donald Trump is going to lead a coordinated, worldwide effort to trace and isolate the twenty or so million people who have the disease? ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/45 "2020-04-09T03:38:05Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > So, Donald Trump is going to lead a coordinated, worldwide effort to trace and isolate the twenty or so million people who have the disease? Something of a straw man. This is something for each region to manage itself. Not everywhere will be able to do this. Most of the poorer nations have no chance. Sadly to make this work requires long term isolation of nations. Minimally the current 14 day isolation on arrival many nations are imposing, although as testing becomes more timely and reliable maybe 14 days could be relaxed. By itself trace and isolate isn’t a cure. It is a holding tactic. Maybe part of an overall strategy to get a nation from the current situation to a long term stable situation with minimal damage. At least we can hope so. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/46 "2020-04-09T05:23:45Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Nope. But I know how long it is, what the sort of cost would be to guard something like that, and the value in doing so. So, not familiar at all. You might want to revise your earlier comment then. There’s a lot more than distance involved. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/47 "2020-04-09T06:19:31Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > So, not familiar at all. You might want to revise your earlier comment then. There’s a lot more than distance involved. Estimates of the number of North Koreans living illegally in China are generally in the range of 50,000 or so, although [larger numbers](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-108hhrg93682/html/CHRG-108hhrg93682.htm) are occasionally discussed. I assume the China/North Korea border is probably at least as stringently guarded as the China/Mongolia border. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/48 "2020-04-09T08:51:30Z")
That’s total who have managed to get across. It’s not people going to and fro. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/49 "2020-04-09T09:12:10Z")
p.s. There are not “thousands of people” going across the PRC/DPRK border in one day. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/50 "2020-04-09T14:33:03Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > "Yes, it is possible to get chickenpox more than once, but this is extremely rare. > > Most people who have had chickenpox won’t get it again because they’re immune to it for life." So what you’re saying is that in normal life, people are immune to chicken pox after they get it. Sure, there might be the extremely rare case where someone _whose immune system isn’t working right_ gets it again, but that’s extraordinarily uncommon and points to some sort of immune system issue. This isn’t some kind of logical proof where all you have to do is come up with one case that disproves it- in common life, people ARE immune if they have had it once. Which is also true for most other viruses, at least for the specific strains they’ve had. So if you’ve had a specific strain of influenza, you’re immune to that specific strain. But if it mutates and comes back later, you aren’t going to be immune to that mutated strain, or at best, you’ll be partially immune. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/51 "2020-04-09T15:43:09Z")
> [@bump](#): > > So what you’re saying is that in normal life, people are immune to chicken pox after they get it. > > Sure, there might be the extremely rare case where someone _whose immune system isn’t working right_ gets it again, but that’s extraordinarily uncommon and points to some sort of immune system issue. Getting chicken pox twice is not “extremely rare.” I tried unsuccessfully to find actual statistics. Looking around online, there are loads of unsourced statements saying it’s extremely rare, and oceans of anecdata saying it’s not. Given my own experience, I suspect it’s not all that rare, because as far as I know my immune system is tip-top. Does anyone with medical knowledge know how rare it is, precisely? If the analogy is going to be useful it would be good to know. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/52 "2020-04-09T16:00:17Z")
> [@bump](#): > > So what you’re saying is that in normal life, people are immune to chicken pox after they get it. > > Sure, there might be the extremely rare case where someone _whose immune system isn’t working right_ gets it again, but that’s extraordinarily uncommon and points to some sort of immune system issue. > > This isn’t some kind of logical proof where all you have to do is come up with one case that disproves it- in common life, people ARE immune if they have had it once. > > Which is also true for most other viruses, at least for the specific strains they’ve had. So if you’ve had a specific strain of influenza, you’re immune to that specific strain. But if it mutates and comes back later, you aren’t going to be immune to that mutated strain, or at best, you’ll be partially immune. Yes people are usually immune after they’ve had it the first time. An immune disease is one reason that someone can have the disease twice. Other reasons are 1) a very mild case the first time or 2) getting the disease while younger than 6 months old (which means that getting the disease early isn’t necesarily best) ([https://www.healthline.com/health/can-you-get-chickenpox-twice](https://www.healthline.com/health/can-you-get-chickenpox-twice)). This is somewhat different than other childhood diseases, which (as far as I have been able to tell) really do cause permanent immunity. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/53 "2020-04-09T16:11:10Z")
> [@bump](#): > > So what you’re saying is that in normal life, people are immune to chicken pox after they get it. > > Sure, there might be the extremely rare case where someone _whose immune system isn’t working right_ gets it again, but that’s extraordinarily uncommon and points to some sort of immune system issue. > > This isn’t some kind of logical proof where all you have to do is come up with one case that disproves it- in common life, people ARE immune if they have had it once. > > Which is also true for most other viruses, at least for the specific strains they’ve had. So if you’ve had a specific strain of influenza, you’re immune to that specific strain. But if it mutates and comes back later, you aren’t going to be immune to that mutated strain, or at best, you’ll be partially immune. I’m pretty sure [Great Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22199882&postcount=194) will come along shortly and correct you for making a dangerous and morally suspect statement about people being immune given that there are rare exceptions. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/54 "2020-04-09T17:10:48Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > So, not familiar at all. You might want to revise your earlier comment then. There’s a lot more than distance involved. a) My earlier comment was that people and mammals needed to be blocked. In every response, from now a good sampling of people, mammals have conveniently been disposed of. b) Southwest China: [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-xinjiang-idUSKCN0PN0ZH20150713](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-xinjiang-idUSKCN0PN0ZH20150713) c) Western China: [https://theasiadialogue.com/2014/05/26/chinas-porous-western-borders/](https://theasiadialogue.com/2014/05/26/chinas-porous-western-borders/) d) Northwest China: [Ethnic Challenges Beyond Borders: Chinese and Russian Perspectives of the ... - Google Books](https://books.google.com/books/about/Ethnic_Challenges_Beyond_Borders.html?id=yjO_DAAAQBAJ) e) North China: [Frontier Encounters - 10. People of the Border: The Destiny of the Shenehen Buryats Marina Baldano - Open Book Publishers](https://books.openedition.org/obp/1541) f) Northeast China: [Why Chinese farmers have crossed border into Russia's Far East](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50185006) g) East China: [https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/northkorea-china-border-porous/](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/northkorea-china-border-porous/) h) All of which is to say: China is an autocracy, but they are not a magical autocracy. Outside of the East Coast, the country varies between living in 1000AD and 1950AD. Their border (which I got the wrong length for before) is 13,743 miles long - more than twice the length of the US-Canada border. It’s not even economical to guard the US-Mexico border, which is several times shorter, and an autocracy doesn’t need to give a rats ass about their voters getting silly ideas in their head like that they need some magical wall around the border. They just do math and ask themselves if they really care about their Medieval inhabitants and where they’re migrating to, beyond ensuring that they aren’t riding into Shanghai and lighting things on fire. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/55 "2020-04-09T17:55:07Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > I’m pretty sure [Great Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22199882&postcount=194) will come along shortly and correct you for making a dangerous and morally suspect statement about people being immune given that there are rare exceptions. **Moderator Warning** This is clearly intended to insult, and is particularly out of line since the poster in question hasn’t even posted in this thread. This is a warning for being a jerk. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/56 "2020-04-09T18:11:46Z")
> [@Francis\_Vaughan](#): > > Something of a straw man. This is something for each region to manage itself. Not everywhere will be able to do this. Most of the poorer nations have no chance. Sadly to make this work requires long term isolation of nations. Minimally the current 14 day isolation on arrival many nations are imposing, although as testing becomes more timely and reliable maybe 14 days could be relaxed. > > By itself trace and isolate isn’t a cure. It is a holding tactic. Maybe part of an overall strategy to get a nation from the current situation to a long term stable situation with minimal damage. At least we can hope so. Hopes are great and wonderful. My argument was that reality wins. Whether something could be done or not, to actively pin the snake down and chop its head off, that’s not where we’re headed. The US is the only country that could try to organize that sort of thing, and it’s not going to. And minus coordination, the world will be a hodge-podge of attempts as you say. But a hodge-podge is insufficient for any practical purpose. It’s what I’ve said is going to happen and what I’m pointing out the demerits of. India ain’t going to do almost bupkis. They can’t. They’re just going to shut their eyes and try to protect the people at the top. And Indian travel between there and the US is very large and will resume before Christmas. Most of Africa won’t even notice. Again, we’ll probably have flights going back-and-forth by Christmas. Outside of the Korean DMZ, nearly every border on the planet is entirely porous to the people who live directly on them. There’s always going to be transfusion between countries, no matter how slow it is. Mexico is going to do the same as India. At last note, the border between us and Mexico was pretty easy to get across - even if we built a wall the whole length of it. Travel between Brazil and the US is pretty large. Jair Bolsonaro is still a Coronavirus denier. We’ll have flights between there and the US by Christmas. We can defend an elder care facility. We can’t defend the Mexican border. That’s just the logistics of the matter. And particularly with the current world situation. The modern world was built around the concept that there is a Leader of the Free World who manages stuff like this. We elected a person who, despite extreme narcissism, would prefer to be the President of the United States rather than Supreme Ruler of Planet Earth. Why that person would make that choice, I find extremely suspicious, but that’s a different topic. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/57 "2020-04-09T20:13:37Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The modern world was built around the concept that there is a Leader of the Free World who manages stuff like this. We elected a person who, despite extreme narcissism, would prefer to be the President of the United States rather than Supreme Ruler of Planet Earth. Why that person would make that choice, I find extremely suspicious, but that’s a different topic. Far be it from me to defend Trump, but he was elected President of the US, NOT “Supreme Ruler of Planet Earth”. A primary part of his job IS to look out for the US and champion its interests first and foremost, not to worry about other countries. That’s why they have their own Presidents, Generalissimos, General Secretaries, Prime Ministers, Kings, etc… ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/58 "2020-04-09T20:33:40Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > p.s. There are not “thousands of people” going across the PRC/DPRK border in one day. I didn’t say there were, nor does there need to be. All that is needed is for one single solitary super-spreader to cross that border just one time. If the border is porous enough for several tens of thousands to have crossed over a period of years (some more than once, as there are anecdotal reports of traders who cross pretty much every day, with the PRC border guards turning a blind eye), then the border is porous enough to permit that super-spreader to cross. The PRC/DPRK border is much shorter than the PRC/Mongolian border, is more defensible (Yalu and Tumen rivers, e.g.), and probably more tightly guarded (DPRK is a nuclear rival governed by a looney-tunes), and it’s STILL porous enough to have allowed several tens of thousands across over a period of years. Why should anyone believe the sprawling Mongolian border is so much less porous? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/59 "2020-04-09T20:39:32Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Far be it from me to defend Trump, but he was elected President of the US, NOT “Supreme Ruler of Planet Earth”. A primary part of his job IS to look out for the US and champion its interests first and foremost, not to worry about other countries. That’s why they have their own Presidents, Generalissimos, General Secretaries, Prime Ministers, Kings, etc… The job of the Federal government is, principally, to manage our foreign affairs. Domestically, their job is largely to mind their own biz-nass (though, we have all conveniently decided to ignore that, in the aim of empowering our preferred political parties and to spare ourselves from having to educate ourselves about our hordes of local politicians). Our government kicked ass at it so hard post-1950 that “our foreign affairs” is a significant element in how the world functions. And we do it because it’s better to have that sort of power and capability than not. We would prefer to be able to stop pandemics than not. It’s an economic bonus to us and, by happenstance, to most other nations on the planet. But it is simply the management of our foreign affairs and that is squarely and expressly the job of the US President. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/60 "2020-04-09T20:44:00Z")
China’s famous cat-and-ferret-and-bat-and-pangolin-and-tiger brigade, of course, is known for their 100% efficacy rate at stopping cross-border movement. [https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=893744](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=893744) > **[From bats to people to tigers? Viruses that can jump species | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/opinions/from-bats-to-people-to-tigers-viruses-jump-species-epstein/index.html)** > > Jonathan Epstein, an expert on animals and disease, says we have much more to learn about how animals such as bats can transmit viruses to humans and about how they can be spread from there to other animals [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344.md?page=4)