# No, we don't all need to "get it eventually" **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 8, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344 "2020-04-08T14:34:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/61 "2020-04-09T23:44:01Z")
We still don’t know enough about this virus to say anything about what’s going to happen “eventually”. Even our best models say nothing about what’s going to happen past August. We only have other diseases to compare and theorize against. It’s very possible that everyone is going to get this thing at some point. No guarantees of an effective vaccine, no guarantee of mutations nullifying herd immunity. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/62 "2020-04-10T00:46:49Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Getting chicken pox twice is not “extremely rare.” I tried unsuccessfully to find actual statistics. Looking around online, there are loads of unsourced statements saying it’s extremely rare, and oceans of anecdata saying it’s not. Given my own experience, I suspect it’s not all that rare, because as far as I know my immune system is tip-top. > > Does anyone with medical knowledge know how rare it is, precisely? If the analogy is going to be useful it would be good to know. I found this paper from the Journal of the American Association of Pediatrics [https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/109/6/1068?sso=1&sso\_redirect\_count=1&nfstatus=401&nftoken=00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000&nfstatusdescription=ERROR%3A+No+local+token](https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/109/6/1068?sso=1&sso_redirect_count=1&nfstatus=401&nftoken=00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000&nfstatusdescription=ERROR%3a+No+local+token) "Results. Among varicella cases reported to the surveillance project, 4.5% of cases in 1995 and 13.3% of cases in 1999 reported previous varicella. More than 95% of first infections were physician diagnosed, epidemiologically linked to another case, or had a rash description consistent with varicella; the same was true for reported second infections. People who reported reinfections were generally healthy. There was a family history of repeat infections in 45% of people who reported reinfections. Conclusions. Clinical varicella reinfections may occur more commonly than previously thought. Additional studies of the predictive value of a positive varicella history and laboratory studies of reported reinfections are indicated to guide varicella vaccination policy." This is a much higher number than I was expecting. ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/63 "2020-04-10T00:59:13Z")
So what’s the difference between a second case of chicken pox and shingles? ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/64 "2020-04-10T01:05:16Z")
> [@Alley\_Dweller](#): > > So what’s the difference between a second case of chicken pox and shingles? Chicken pox is hundreds of pus filled boils that itch like mad. Shingles is a painful rash that can give you Bell’s palsy or blind you. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/65 "2020-04-10T01:44:45Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > I found this paper from the Journal of the American Association of Pediatrics > > [https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/109/6/1068?sso=1&sso\_redirect\_count=1&nfstatus=401&nftoken=00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000&nfstatusdescription=ERROR%3A+No+local+token](https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/109/6/1068?sso=1&sso_redirect_count=1&nfstatus=401&nftoken=00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000&nfstatusdescription=ERROR%3a+No+local+token) > > "Results. Among varicella cases reported to the surveillance project, 4.5% of cases in 1995 and 13.3% of cases in 1999 reported previous varicella. More than 95% of first infections were physician diagnosed, epidemiologically linked to another case, or had a rash description consistent with varicella; the same was true for reported second infections. People who reported reinfections were generally healthy. There was a family history of repeat infections in 45% of people who reported reinfections. > > Conclusions. Clinical varicella reinfections may occur more commonly than previously thought. Additional studies of the predictive value of a positive varicella history and laboratory studies of reported reinfections are indicated to guide varicella vaccination policy." > > This is a much higher number than I was expecting. Thank you! ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/66 "2020-04-10T01:58:33Z")
> [@Alley\_Dweller](#): > > So what’s the difference between a second case of chicken pox and shingles? The most important difference is that shingles is a re-eruption of the original chicken-pox infection. You have not been exposed to a new dose of virus. A person in total isolation who has had chicken pox can come down with shingles. Chicken pox never fully goes away. It hides in the nerve ganglions along the spine. If it reactivates, it travels along the nerves from that ganglion, and these are the centres of the eruption on the skin. Which is why there is usually a very clear pattern to the rash. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/67 "2020-04-10T19:49:50Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The job of the Federal government is, principally, to manage our foreign affairs. Domestically, their job is largely to mind their own biz-nass (though, we have all conveniently decided to ignore that, in the aim of empowering our preferred political parties and to spare ourselves from having to educate ourselves about our hordes of local politicians). > > Our government kicked ass at it so hard post-1950 that “our foreign affairs” is a significant element in how the world functions. And we do it because it’s better to have that sort of power and capability than not. We would prefer to be able to stop pandemics than not. It’s an economic bonus to us and, by happenstance, to most other nations on the planet. > > But it is simply the management of our foreign affairs and that is squarely and expressly the job of the US President. I think we’re saying the same thing; the President has a foreign policy job that should be governed primarily by the US’ enlightened self-interest. We want to prevent pandemics and other stuff because it benefits the US. But we have to primarily use soft power- persuasion, cooperation, incentives, etc… We don’t have any legitimate way to compel any other country to do anything, and we don’t ‘rule’ the planet. What we do is that since our economy is the biggest, and we have worldwide interests in stability and free trade, we tend to use our power to do stuff that furthers those goals. Which is a long way from a President being elected “Supreme Ruler of Earth”. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/68 "2020-04-10T20:00:42Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I think we’re saying the same thing; the President has a foreign policy job that should be governed primarily by the US’ enlightened self-interest. We want to prevent pandemics and other stuff because it benefits the US. But we have to primarily use soft power- persuasion, cooperation, incentives, etc… We don’t have any legitimate way to compel any other country to do anything, and we don’t ‘rule’ the planet. What we do is that since our economy is the biggest, and we have worldwide interests in stability and free trade, we tend to use our power to do stuff that furthers those goals. Which is a long way from a President being elected “Supreme Ruler of Earth”. At this moment in time, it’s the closest thing there is to such a role. But yes, obviously, it’s not a real job title and it’s a soft power thing (if you’re capable and interested in it). ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344/69 "2020-04-12T17:21:29Z")
There are predictions that the number of cases will peak this month and then decline. But then what? There is talk of a second wave, possibly in late summer. The Spanish 'flu was more deadly in the second wave, so if that is a precedent, then we need to be really worried. But we also cannot shut down our economies indefinitely. What can be done? There are reports of one or two drugs that may help - but not the drug that Trump is talking about. One of these is a novel antiviral drug, let’s hope it works, but as with a vaccine, it first has to be approved and then mass-produced. Most estimates is that any of these that actually work will not be available until late this year, at the earliest and it is more than likely that there will not be enough for everybody for some time. If we are really lucky, the virus will mutate and not attack the lungs, which is what makes it so dangerous. If if it was just “another” form of 'flu, like the annual epidemic that most of us experience, then it does not matter if everybody gets it. But, that is asking for a lot of luck. Over here, the mandatory two-week self-quarantine ends tomorrow. So we can go shopping again instead of asking the neighbors to help out. But in four days it will be mandatory to wear a mask when out and about. I hope I can still buy some, but my guess is that that have been sold out. Some people have made their own. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/no-we-dont-all-need-to-get-it-eventually/851344.md?page=3)