# Normalizing U.S.-Cuban relations? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 11, 2014, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071 "2014-02-11T17:43:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/21 "2014-02-12T00:51:38Z")
Yep, popular or not (and there HAS been erosion, since the team refuses to take a bow no matter how bad things go), Fidel dies at home in his bed with his regime in power after 55+ years, while whatever handful of his pre-1961 foes that outlive him do so in exile in their own deathbeds… his last thought before going into the void is that he won. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/22 "2014-02-12T01:11:34Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Yep, popular or not (and there HAS been erosion, since the team refuses to take a bow no matter how bad things go), Fidel dies at home in his bed with his regime in power after 55+ years, while whatever handful of his pre-1961 foes that outlive him do so in exile in their own deathbeds… his last thought before going into the void is that he won. I’m fairly sure Stalin (and Mao) felt much the same way. 😛 I guess we’ll see how long Cuba totters on in it’s major win once he and his brother are gone. It’s interesting to me to see so many folks so passionate about Cuba and ending the embargo. I mean, if Cuba is winning and all, why do they need normalized relations with the US? WE don’t need it, obviously since basically very few in the US ever give Cuba a second thought, so if Cuba is good with how bountiful things have been for them since the revolution, and since everyone but the US trades with them, what’s the problem? [QUOTE=Simplicio] I could see something similar happening with Cuba now that public opinion has moderated. Granted given his age and health, Castro will probably die first simply because he doesn’t seem to have long left. But even if he holds on, renormalization seems like low hanging fruit for some pol looking for a project. [/QUOTE] I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for some pol to take up the project. You might think it’s low hanging fruit, but then it’s curious why it STILL hasn’t happened, even with the Dems in the WH again for 2 terms and if not in control of the house at least in parity with the Pubs (and able to seemingly push the Pubs to a clean budget this round). Surely the HCR and such were harder than the low hanging fruit that is Cuba, no? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/23 "2014-02-12T02:48:08Z")
> [@Claverhouse](#): > > For all the gloating of the brothers shuffling off, it’s worth noting that if they’ve been waiting on adversarial American presidents kicking the bucket, they’ve been a lot more successful. Well, yeah because American Presidents have to go through things like elections, have to deal with a free press, aren’t allowed more than 8 years in office by the Constitution, and have to keep their citizens happy in order to get elected in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/24 "2014-02-12T13:58:34Z")
The only way it passes the House would be for Obama to make a public statement that he would veto any normalization with Cuba. More seriously, with the Republicans all deathly afraid of primary challenges from the right, it can’t happen unless the Democrats hold the White House, a solid majority in the House, and 65+ Senate seats. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/25 "2014-02-12T15:05:14Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Really, it is that long since Castro has been any threat to anyone beyond his own shores. The names “Communism” and “Marxism” have lost their power to conjure – the Zapatista rebels in Mexico do not even bother to call themselves “Marxist”; if their rebellion had started 20 or even 10 years earlier, they would have as a matter of course. Not even the Chavistas of Venezuela’s clearly LW “Bolivarian Revolution” seem to mention Marx very much. No, Chavez and his successors mentioned Marx, communism, Che Guevara, etc. all the time, especially after his re-election in 2006. So does Evo Morales. And both of them (as well as of course people like Ortega in Nicaragua, who returned to the presidency in the mid-2000s) drew a lot of inspiration from Cuba. None of those folks was interested in exactly copying the Cuban model, but they all drew a lot of inspiration from Cuba. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/26 "2014-02-12T15:27:40Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I guess we’ll see how long Cuba totters on in it’s major win once he and his brother are gone. Like earlier mentioned, after that final point of spite is made (by both sides: nyaah, you died in exile without defeating me / nyaah, you died without getting the US to deal with you on your terms) then folks will begin being reasonable. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/27 "2014-02-12T15:29:33Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The only way it passes the House would be for Obama to make a public statement that he would veto any normalization with Cuba. More seriously, with the Republicans all deathly afraid of primary challenges from the right, it can’t happen unless the Democrats hold the White House, a solid majority in the House, and 65+ Senate seats. I would go with an “Only Nixon” scenario - no Democratic president is going to propose it, and won’t need to with Florida narrowly but solidly in his column anyway. Once the Castros are both gone, along with the ritualistic old Cubans in Miami, a Republican candidate could put it on the table as a way to attract votes from the younger Hispanics who already vastly outnumber the anti-communist relics, and to promote business development across the strait. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2014, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/28 "2014-02-12T15:32:54Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Were people clamoring for renormalization with Vietnam in the 90’s? IIRC, it was largely a project for a few politicians (Kerry, McCain and Clinton) who presumably thought it would be a nice feather in their cap (and not to be overly cynical, because all three presumably thought it was the right thing to do). Was there a politically strong group in a swing state advocating against? It’s easy to push for something most people don’t care about as long as there isn’t a powerful group pushing against. ---
**Author:** ![Martini\_Enfield](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/martini_enfield/32/11123_2.png) [@Martini\_Enfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martini_Enfield)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/29 "2014-02-16T00:16:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > It’s easy to push for something most people don’t care about as long as there isn’t a powerful group pushing against. It’s also surprising how quickly a powerful group pushing against the thing no-ne cares about can be astroturfed, too. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/30 "2014-02-16T00:21:04Z")
> [@Martini\_Enfield](#): > > It’s also surprising how quickly a powerful group pushing against the thing no-ne cares about can be astroturfed, too. Are you thinking of a specific example? ---
**Author:** ![Martini\_Enfield](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/martini_enfield/32/11123_2.png) [@Martini\_Enfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martini_Enfield)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/31 "2014-02-16T00:56:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Are you thinking of a specific example? Nothing specific, but I’ve certainly written news stories in my career about fairly uncontroversial or even benevolent things which suddenly caused people to decide they (allegedly) cared passionately about something they’d previously never really cared about one way or the other before. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/32 "2014-02-16T01:41:49Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Well, yeah because American Presidents have to go through things like elections, have to deal with a free press, aren’t allowed more than 8 years in office by the Constitution, and have to keep their citizens happy in order to get elected in the first place. More than evened out by the CIA trying to off Castro dozens of times. Or the failures of the Bay of Pigs or Operation Mongoose. It’s like the pencil necked geek somehow avoiding the bully for years on end. Sure you’re still at the bottom of the food chain, but hey, at least your nurples ain’t purple. ---
**Author:** ![NDP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ndp/32/55_2.png) [@NDP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NDP)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2014, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/33 "2014-02-18T07:20:11Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I would go with an “Only Nixon” scenario - no Democratic president is going to propose it, and won’t need to with Florida narrowly but solidly in his column anyway. Once the Castros are both gone, along with the ritualistic old Cubans in Miami, a Republican candidate could put it on the table as a way to attract votes from the younger Hispanics who already vastly outnumber the anti-communist relics, and to promote business development across the strait. Actually, I could see Obama doing it. But he’d only do it in late 2016 or early 2017 after the election is over and he’s heading out the door. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2014, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/34 "2014-02-18T14:11:57Z")
Realistically, it’s never going to happen until Fidel Castro croaks. The US has too much pride invested in the embargo to let it go while Fidel is still alive. It’s just possible that we might normalize while Raul Castro is still around, but I’m inclined to think that he’ll have to be at least retired. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2014, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/35 "2014-02-18T17:39:11Z")
> [@XT](#): > > It’s interesting to me to see so many folks so passionate about Cuba and ending the embargo. I wouldn’t say I’m _passionate_ about it; it’s not an issue I think about more than a few times a year. But when it does come up, the total _stupidity_ of it is pretty obvious. And I’m passionately against blatant stupidity. The only reason not to have diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba is that they’re Communist and all that - but we’ve had more or less normal relations with China, Vietnam, etc. for decades now. And who do we hurt by our trade embargo with Cuba? Certainly not Fidel or Raul Castro. Just the people we’re supposedly doing this for, the people of Cuba. Maybe we should do something that would actually _help_ them, like opening trade relations with them. It’s been a frickin’ _quarter-century_ since Cuba was a giant Soviet aircraft carrier in the Caribbean, a weapon just waiting to be used against us. The Cold War’s not just over; it’s been over so long that nobody under 30 even _remembers_ it. But we’ve got this one bizarre policy remnant left over from it that makes not the least bit of sense in today’s world. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2014, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/36 "2014-02-18T17:54:35Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Was there a politically strong group in a swing state advocating against? > > It’s easy to push for something most people don’t care about as long as there isn’t a powerful group pushing against. Yea, but my original point was that there isn’t a powerful group advocating for it in FL, or at least, they’re getting less traction every year. The exiles that were in favour of the embargo are aging out of the political process. > [@simplicio](#): > > To answer my own question. I found a poll of cuban Americans living in Miami. It appears opinion even there only supports the embargo by a few points. I really don’t think the political price to be paid for lifting it would be that steep, even just in fl. Crist isn’t exactly a neo-phyte in FL politics, and isn’t exactly known for his unwillingness to point where the wind is blowing, so I’d offer his advocacy of ending the embargo while running for gov as further evidence its not as big a deal as it once was, even just in the Sunshine state. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2015, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/37 "2015-05-06T02:36:44Z")
Bumped. What a difference a year makes! White House position paper: [Priorities | The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/cuba) U.S.-to-Cuba ferry service could be up and running in the next four months: [Obama Administration Approves Ferry Service To Cuba | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/05/ferry-service-cuba_n_7218496.html?utm_hp_ref=world&ir=WorldPost) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2015, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/38 "2015-05-06T16:19:52Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Bumped. What a difference a year makes! > > White House position paper: [Priorities | The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/cuba) > > U.S.-to-Cuba ferry service could be up and running in the next four months: [Obama Administration Approves Ferry Service To Cuba | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/05/ferry-service-cuba_n_7218496.html?utm_hp_ref=world&ir=WorldPost) Once in Miami I heard some Cuban-Americans say confidently that not only will Cuba one day be a State of the Union, but there will be a bridge from Key West to Havana. Not likely, it would be the longest bridge ever, the Florida Straits are 93 miles wide. But a ferry service could work. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2015, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/39 "2015-05-30T03:32:55Z")
[U.S. removes Cuba from list of state sponsors of terrorism.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/us/us-removes-cuba-from-state-terrorism-list.html?_r=0) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2015, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071/40 "2015-05-30T03:41:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [U.S. removes Cuba from list of state sponsors of terrorism.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/us/us-removes-cuba-from-state-terrorism-list.html?_r=0) Yeah, was reading a similar article on CNN earlier and almost posted it to the thread. Seems the barriers to normalization keep falling and I’m not seeing a lot of push back on it except from a few Republicans and the older Cuban community in Florida…and even on those it seems the fire has just gone out for the most part. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/normalizing-u-s-cuban-relations/681071.md?page=3)