North Korea...how will it end?

is allowed to exist?
What do you mean “is allowed to exist”?
What kind of question is that?

Allowed by whom? Is there some world government I should be aware of?
I know there was the U.N. once ,but that has been declared “Irrelevant”.

I would like to address this point. While it’s true that no blood was shed during reunification, it would be foolish to assume that everything was hunky-dory afterwards. We’re still dealing with the after effects, and there are still vast economic differences between the former East and the West.

Now, keep in mind that, compared to North Korea, the GDR was a highly functioning, prospering democracy. There were no famines and even though the Stasi did their best to keep the citizens afraid of the west, it was possible for West Germans to visit, and most East Germans were able to and did receive Western television.

When North Korea breaks down, it’s not going to be pretty and a unified Korea will suffer the downfall for many decades, socially and economically.

Which leads me to believe, that if North Korea collapses, unification wont happen. I think most South Koreans only play lip service to the idea of reunification. There’s really no upside to them taking on that massive financial burden. Most that still remember a unified Korea are old and will soon die off. The South Korean youth of today probably have no emotional connection to the north and aren’t interested in paying the bill for fixing it. The south also has a nice walled and mined area to keep all the North Korean refuges on their side of the border. Unless the international community puts a lot of pressure on South Korea, refugees from the North are going to be China’s problem.

I think the liklehood is that NK will become more and more dependant upon goodwill from China, and that will then lead to changes, to ‘meet mutual needs’’

It is tempting to imagine some dramatic collapse, but the more likely one is the gradual, almost evolutionary approach of China. You’ve got to realise that China does not want a crisis nation on its borders and that is as likely to limit involvement from other nations as anything else.

I cannot see any overt Chinese attempt to involve themselves directly with NK internal affairs, it just does not seem to be their way, but ultimately there will be a huge influence.

China has its own issues regarding sovereignty on its borders and will not want to set up a debate that undermines its own arguments for those situations.

Exactly. Many, Americans especially (*no troll), do not realise what a godforsaken shit-hole the place is.

Hence the link in my own thread relating to this very subject matter; a reality check for those caught up in the relatively small collateral damage the likes of the Afghanistan, Libya and other such mission de liberté naturally results in.

Cannibalism in North Korea

nom nom nom

I haven’t read much on North Korea, but a few years ago I used to read tons about them. One of the things I would read is that the cult of personality has mostly broken down due to black market trade with China, cell phones and smuggled music/VHS videos from South Korea showing life outside North Korea was much better than they’d been led to believe by the government. Due to all these things most North Koreans have obtained info and ideas that shoots the cult of personality to hell. So I would assume that the thoughts of the average peasant in 2011 are not the same as the peasant in 1988.

Also the loss of Kim Il Sung as well as the famine of the 90s really put a dent in the cult of personality. People started to realize the gov. wasn’t all powerful and didn’t give a shit about them when famine hit almost everyone. Not only that, but while the famine was happening the gov. was spending hundreds of millions and arguably billions on the cult of personality. That fact wasn’t lost on all of them.

So I don’t know. My impression is both China and South Korea want to prop up North Korea as an independent state. If South Korea unifies, it is looking at a massive trillion dollar investment project full of citizens with physical and mental illnesses. China wants North Korea as a buffer against the west.

My WAG is a military coup. I have no idea what’ll happen after that. I’m sure life will get better, but I don’t know how much or how fast.

In otherwise pretty much abandon Communism (at lest in economics) and set up a technocratic oligarchy.

My only hope is that when North Korea collapses China will not attempt a Drang Nach Osten and try to prevent the reunification of the Korean people.

Georgia apparently slipped your mind. (Unless you want to maintain that Ioseb Jugashvili had a minimal impact on Soviet-era culture).

IMHO, the only way out would be the local leaders (in particular the military) not letting Kim Jong Il’s son suceed him after his death and running what will probably still be a totalitarian regime, but not as insane as the current one is.

To Qin: as people have been saying throughout this thread, reunification just isn’t going to happen — at least, not in this century. German reunification was difficult and expensive, and the two Germanies were substantially wealthier than their respective Korean counterparts. It’s hard to see how two countries can be united when one has a virtually uneducated population of peasant serfs and the other has educated, industrialized workers. The only way I can think of making it happen is for the South to basically run North Korea as a colony for a generation or two.

Assuming a NK collapse, the initial waves of refugees may require a lot of capital to feed/clothes/house, but what about using them as cheap labor to rebuild NK?

I’m not talking about slavery or anything. Many countries have wages much lower than th first world countries yet their citizens cannot be said to be living in squalor. How about if SK supplies the brains and the management while the NK refugees act as a cheap labor force? Wouldn’t that drastically decrease the amount of money SK has to spend on NK should the government collapse?

For example, how it would work in real life would be like if SK maintains the border so that refugees can’t flood into the south. All the food NK needs would be farmed by NK and sold to North Koreans so that the startup would be cheap even while the prices would still be much less than SK’s levels. Any clothing they need would be made by NK tailors, with perhaps some raw materials sold at a discount to NK. Sorta like the “Iraq war will be paid by Iraqi oil”, but not a lie.

NK, while they have terrible living standards, is a country of 24 million. They’ve gotta have some industry to sustain that number of people, right?

Actually, China absorbing North Korea is probably the best possible outcome for the US and South Korea. It would be terrible for China though, so they will never do it. Obviously for North Korea just about any change would be a plus.

Korean reunification would most likely collapse South Korea. Germany has spent over $1.9 trillion USD on rebuilding the East. South Korea’s GDP is only $1.4 trillion USD. And East Germany wasn’t that far behind, especially when compared to the huge differences in quality of life between North and South Korea.

Possible, but I think that would lead to far more problems than it would solve. I don’t think you could do it without creating a semi-permanent underclass of North Koreans.

North Korea can’t feed itself. They had a famine that basically last through the entire 1990’s and while it’s impossible to get any real count may have killed up to 3.5 million people and left millions more with permanent damage from malnutrition. Even now they’re still relying on outside food and there’s concern of a new long term famine happening again. cite

I question the validity of this and similar sentiments expressed in this thread. Such doom-and-gloom takes on potential reunification assume that it will be based on present-day economic situations. This is not a sound assumption, as reunification may well be years or decades in the future. That is plenty of time for South Korea to get a lot poorer and North Korea to get a lot richer. Indeed, as both the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic have definitively demonstrated, mind-boggling growth and development can take place in a decade or two under a proper socialist command structure. For all you know, by 1230, North Korea could be one of the richest nations in the world. At that point, it would be a matter of determining whether or not they wish to subsidize the South through reunification, rather than vice versa.

Is that 1230 AD or BC? Doesn’t matter, you are probably right…compared to most countries in 1230 North Korea probably WOULD be one of the richest nations on earth…or soon would be since their modern army would be a match for anything other countries at that time could field.

Leaving that happy fantasy aside, however, it would take just about ever other nation on earth disappearing for North Korea to even crack the top 10 richest nation on earth in our reality.

No point in trying to make you see that, however since you are willfully ignorant on this subject, as you are on every other subject having to do with communism. You simply can’t be made to see or understand so there is little point in even trying.

-XT

The 1230’s weren’t a great time for Korea. They spent it getting invaded by the Mongols and came out the loser in nearly every battle. Eventually they worked out a treaty deal in 1259 where Korea became a vassal state to the Mongolian Empire. Fortunately the Mongols weren’t interested in ruling directly or messing with the local culture. They did invent the first metal printing press during that period, so there’s that.

Anyway I’m assuming you really meant the year 2130. And it’s fascinating how when responding to how you disagree with a post saying that Korean Unification won’t happen this century you provide a date more than a century out. :rolleyes:

Firstly, I don’t think North Korea was especially wealthy in 1230. Secondly, you’ll notice I said “in this century”. Predictions become meaningless beyond a certain time; by 2230, anything could have happened. That said, the DPRK has a massive, massive way to go to catch up to the rest of the world. Thirdly, neither the former Soviet Union nor the PRC are anywhere near as wealthy as South Korea, neither has been unusually “socialist” (a “socialist command structure” doesn’t mean anything) in their time of growth. Fourthly, Russia’s growth has everything to do with a natural resource boom. Development hasn’t been at all impressive, given that wealth, and anyway, North Korea isn’t resource-rich.

Sorry, everyone. That was supposed to say “2030.” Not sure how I got 1230 from that… Guess I should start getting enough sleep.

This is not meant to be a definitive prediction, but rather an extrapolation about a possible future. Keep in mind that both the Soviet Union and China were able to transform themselves from primitive agricultural boondocks into world-shaking superpowers in approximately two decades with little more than determination and socialism. Hence, this scenario is not out of the realms of probability. North Korea has all the tools it needs to succeed - now it just needs a better socialist government.

Wow, I swear those other responses weren’t there when I started writing.

ETA: 2030? The only way North Korea’s wealthier than South Korea by 2030 is if South Korea’s been nuked into rubble. And even then, the difference wouldn’t be massive. North Korea really doesn’t have any of the things China and Russia did — notably, a large population.

My solution would be a US capitation strike from the air of all government and military installations and officials in concert with a ground assault by Chinese forces to keep NK from invading South. That would be the quickest way to eliminate the problem. But that won’t happen so. . . . . .

I agree with the above–military takeover followed by very slow change.

China is the only country that could do anything to improve the situation and they do not want a western country on their border so damn the citizens and let tyrany ring.