# North Korea Nuclear Test? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 12, 2004, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108 "2004-09-12T04:09:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/61 "2004-09-13T01:45:01Z")
> [@threemae](#): > > but to actually believe that the ICBM defense system being currently deployed is in any potential way is to show yourself as either an absolute fool to the wild claims of politicans or else being the intellectual equivalent of the Greater Western Prarie Chicken… You don’t really keep up on current events, do you? [Cite.](http://www.spacedaily.com/news/bmdo-04w.html) > [@](#): > > Orbital Sciences Corporation announced that it supplied the first interceptor boost vehicle for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA)'s Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system that was installed into an underground silo at Fort Greely, Alaska yesterday, July 22, 2004. And more are being installed as we speak. And banish a bit more of your ignorance [here.](http://www.acq.osd.mil/mda/mdalink/html/mdalink.html) ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/62 "2004-09-13T02:30:47Z")
[Rummy on combined deployment and testing:](http://www.pentagon.gov/transcripts/2004/tr20040818-secdef1201.html) > [@](#): > > we are deploying an initial set of capabilities. They will evolve over time as technology advances and as we’re able to make these limited defenses somewhat more robust. Testing and development will continue to improve the hardware and the software initially deployed in the field, and we’ll continue to take advantage of the most promising technologies as they come available. Despite talk of deployment, the system is not quite minimally operational yet: [New job for 7th Fleet: Missile patrol in Sea of Japan](http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=24308) (September 12, 2004) > [@](#): > > The 7th Fleet begins a significant new mission in the next few weeks: patrolling the Sea of Japan to provide early warning of ballistic missiles fired from North Korea at the United States. > The ships tasked with the initial patrols — the first of their kind ever undertaken by the United States — are the USS Curtis Wilbur, the USS John S. McCain and the USS Fitzgerald, according to a publication of the Missile Defense Agency, part of the Defense Department. ---
**Author:** ![jovan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/0ea827/32.png) [@jovan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jovan)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/63 "2004-09-13T04:57:50Z")
> [@Sublight](#): > > The media here would be going apeshit if it were even suspected. So far, nothing. > > The closest I found was a story in this morning’s Daily Yomiuri about [South](http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20040912wo44.htm) Korean nuclear tests in the 90’s. You posted that yesterday, but since then I’ve seen the story many times in the media here. I found out about it from the news briefs in the Shinkansen and it had top spot in the news tonight. The problem is that no one’s sure what happened yet and nothing to show = not much of a story yet. One thing that _was_ mentioned on the news, though, is that the site is home to a weapon factory. One hypothesis that seems more likely than a nuclear explosion is that there was an accident at the factory and it blew up. ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/64 "2004-09-13T05:37:12Z")
Alright, **Brutus** , rather than just posting links to the agency set up to create this program, why don’t we take a look at an unbiased third party: [http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/missile/technology/basics.html](http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/missile/technology/basics.html) > [@](#): > > Since October 1999, the “kill vehicle” component of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system has been tested six times in flight-intercept tests. Four of those six tests have been deemed successful – meaning that the kill vehicle was able to home in on and destroy the mock warhead as it traveled through space – but a fuller analysis reveals less encouraging details. In two of the successful tests, for instance, critical elements of the system failed. And, according to former Pentagon director of operational test and evaluation, Philip Coyle, “for all practical purposes, the first five tests have been essentially the same.” [See an overview of the “hit to kill” tests conducted between October 1999 and October 2002.] I highly encourage you to watch the program online if you have high-speed internet access to fully understand how overrated the technical abilities of our current systems are and how far the people running these tests have gone to misrepresent failures as successes. > [@](#): > > “We’ve been trying to develop methods of discriminating decoys in warheads for many years,” says Nobel Prize-winning physicist Steven Weinberg. “We may know the nature of the nuclear warhead, but we will not know what other things are sent along with the warhead in the form of decoys that will exhaust our defenses. I don’t see how that problem can ever be solved.” Basically, a mylar balloon, of which dozens can easily be strapped onto an ICBM for a negligible amount of weight, and a mylar balloon with a nuclear warhead inside, look exactly the same to any set of sensors that we have right now. Unless you could go out, pick it up, and shake it around, you’re pretty well screwed. Opaque to radar, opaque to IR, and without the drag of the atmosphere, they travel in exactly the same types of trajectories. This system won’t work. Period. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lodoen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b3f665/32.png) [@Jeff\_Lodoen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lodoen)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/65 "2004-09-13T06:43:39Z")
Did we ever find out what blew up that train in NK some months ago? ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/66 "2004-09-13T06:58:00Z")
> [@threemae](#): > > Alright, **Brutus** , rather than just posting links to the agency set up to create this program… Two cites up there, you know. Unless, of course, you consider ‘[Spacedaily.com](http://Spacedaily.com)’ to be the agency set up to create this program. > [@](#): > > This system won’t work. Period. The evidence shows that the system _can_ work. Stamping your foot and pouting about the matter doesn’t change anything. ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/67 "2004-09-13T07:07:04Z")
The [spacedaily.com](http://spacedaily.com) was a fluff article merely explaining that rockets are being put into silos, it had nothing at all to do with an analysis of the likely efficacy of the system. The evidence shows that a ground based launch intercept system could concievably work in the future if it were ever possible for us to develop technology to differentiate between decoys and real warheads. The system we have now can’t and won’t. IMHO, we should look more at the development of theatre-based systems that try to kill a warhead in its launch phase where decoys cannot be used. While it’s true that this system has disadvantages in terms of needing to have a ship in the area to attack a launched rocket, I feel that it has more long term chance for success. I’m not pouting, this is the reality of our current technological abilities in regards to a NMD. For the life of me, I cannot understand why we’re funding this POS and not even providing money for proven effective technologies like radiation sensors in port facilites. Why don’t you go ahead and watch that Frontline and then get back to me. ---
**Author:** ![Aro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Aro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aro)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/68 "2004-09-13T07:53:09Z")
[N Korea says it blew up mountain](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3650702.stm) \* > [@](#): > > The country’s foreign minister, Paek Nam-sun, said the blast was in fact the deliberate demolition of a mountain as part of a huge, hydro-electric project. - ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/69 "2004-09-13T11:54:02Z")
Imagine if SH tried to “blow up a mountain” pre Iraq invasion, then it would have been a nuke. :rolleyes: BTW **Brutus** , you’re smoking the purest crack if you think that NMD bullshit is going to work. It’s like hitting a bullet with a bullet. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/70 "2004-09-13T12:15:13Z")
> [@World Eater](#): > > It’s like hitting a bullet with a bullet. As long as you’re after a missile and not decoy warheads, isn’t it like shooting skeet? ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/71 "2004-09-13T12:28:15Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > As long as you’re after a missile and not decoy warheads, isn’t it like shooting skeet? I think those missles move pretty fast. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/72 "2004-09-13T12:48:06Z")
Hmmm…I suspect that they actually had a large rocket fuel explosion. Right place, right size, & **nobody** wastes huge amounts of explosives on one big blast, when many smaller explosions are more cost-effective. ---
**Author:** ![duffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duffer/32/1026_2.png) [@duffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duffer)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/73 "2004-09-13T13:21:28Z")
> [@threemae](#): > > unbiased third party: > > [http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/missile/technology/basics.html](http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/missile/technology/basics.html) Unbiased? Normally I have to wait for the afternoon to roll around to be sure I’m seen the funniest post of the day. Thanks for saving me time. ---
**Author:** ![Capt\_B.Phart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc29f/32.png) [@Capt\_B.Phart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt_B.Phart)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/74 "2004-09-13T13:33:52Z")
> [@Aro](#): > > [N Korea says it blew up mountain](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3650702.stm) > [@](#): > > Pyongyang said the explosion was in fact the demolition of a mountain as part of a huge hydro-electric project. In an unusual concession, North Korea said Britain’s ambassador could visit the site to see for himself. “Unusual”? No shit! This starts to look less scary to me (But what kind of fucked-up country is it where if you’re going to blow a whole mountain to bits in a humoungous explosion, you don’t invite people over “Hey watch _ **this** _! – neat huh?”) > [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > nobody wastes huge amounts of explosives on one big blast, when many smaller explosions are more cost-effective. 'cept for those [Crazy Canadians](http://www.vancouverislandabound.com/tamingof.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/75 "2004-09-13T13:42:37Z")
> [@Capt B. Phart](#): > > “Unusual”? No shit! > This starts to look less scary to me (But what kind of fucked-up country is it where if you’re going to blow a whole mountain to bits in a humoungous explosion, you don’t invite people over “Hey watch _ **this** _! – neat huh?”) > > 'cept for those [Crazy Canadians](http://www.vancouverislandabound.com/tamingof.htm) That site stated the the Canadians used one big blast because they couldn’t drill into the rock, way back then. Hmmm…I wounder what this says about the state of North Korea’s machine-tool industry? Assuming it _was_ a demolitions blast, which is far from proven. ---
**Author:** ![Capt\_B.Phart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc29f/32.png) [@Capt\_B.Phart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt_B.Phart)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/76 "2004-09-13T14:25:26Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > Assuming it _was_ a demolitions blast, which is far from proven. Given that the N Korean gov is the kind that lies out of habit, even when it’s in their own interest to tell the truth, your scepticism is well founded, but letting foreigners examine the site – hell even admitting that there _was_ an explosion, makes the scary scenarios that were posed at first seem less likely ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/77 "2004-09-13T14:52:13Z")
Yeah, I’m surprised it wasn’t the people conjuring up the great spirit of his dead dad, and he took the form of a glorious mushroom cloud or something. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/78 "2004-09-13T16:16:28Z")
> [@World Eater](#): > > Yeah, I’m surprised it wasn’t the people conjuring up the great spirit of his dead dad You skeptics all scoff so easily at things you don’t understand! There are those [who know better than you:](http://www.unsolvedmysteries.com/usm391434.html) > [@](#): > > I’ve seen seances go horribly wrong because people weren’t prepared or didn’t realize it’s something dangerous. Best heed their advice, or face horrible, horrible DANGER. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/79 "2004-09-13T16:48:05Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > You skeptics all scoff so easily at things you don’t understand! > There are those [who know better than you:](http://www.unsolvedmysteries.com/usm391434.html) > Best heed their advice, or face horrible, horrible DANGER. So are you saying the explosion was his displeasure at being summoned without regard to protocol? ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2004, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108/80 "2004-09-13T17:42:27Z")
> [@duffer](#): > > Unbiased? Normally I have to wait for the afternoon to roll around to be sure I’m seen the funniest post of the day. Thanks for saving me time. Why don’t you provide me with an example of where Frontline’s coverage has been politically biased or incomplete. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-nuclear-test/264108.md?page=5)