# North Korea suspending missile testing and closing nuclear site; Trump the statesman? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 20, 2018, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829 "2018-04-20T23:09:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/521 "2018-06-12T11:45:41Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It might be stupid, or it might also be brilliant, or it might be something in between. Some of the stupid has been pointed out in this thread and others, so would you mind pointing out the part of the agreement that might be considered “brilliant”? This “standing things on their head” nonsense that is being pushed heavily is absolute nonsense, btw. It makes it sound like it might be a planned strategy, when in truth it is just the same old Trump routine of making a name for himself regardless of cost to the rest of the world. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/522 "2018-06-12T11:48:34Z")
If ever there was going to be progress it was going to take the US screwing over South Korea. He’s probably tallying up how big an invoice he’ll present to Moon Jae-in for the reunification costs and a little commission on the side for the broker. If it comes up roses then lets all form a circle and sing Kumbaya. Reluctantly I’d concede that the ends justifies the means. Conversely, if he’s prepared to launch a trade war with Canada over milk, heaven help us all if he thinks Kim has welshed on his deal. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/523 "2018-06-12T12:12:47Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Some of the stupid has been pointed out in this thread and others, so would you mind pointing out the part of the agreement that might be considered “brilliant”? This “standing things on their head” nonsense that is being pushed heavily is absolute nonsense, btw. It makes it sound like it might be a planned strategy, when in truth it is just the same old Trump routine of making a name for himself regardless of cost to the rest of the world. Just to be clear, I’m as skeptical as most people that this works out as Trump has planned. But I will say that there’s a chance of an agreement if they can resolve the issue of sanctions. If there’s a mutually satisfactory resolution on how sanctions on North Korea end within the next 6 months, then the chances of success for Trump go way up. But Trump is probably going to have to do more than just agree to stop war games with South Korea to get Kim to seriously consider disarming himself. Kim wants sanctions to stop now before he agrees to anything, and whatever he agrees to will most likely be more along the lines of freezing his program rather than eliminating it. By standing things on their head, I mean that the world is now dealing with an isolationist president who no longer believes that the U.S. has any global commitments. Any analysis has to take this into consideration. Throwing South Korea under the bus seems like a violation of long-standing protocol and an a gaffe, but it’s not a bug of this administration; it’s a feature, and it could be a harbinger of American foreign policy in the next 2-8 years, if not longer. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/524 "2018-06-12T13:02:04Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Kim gets the legitimization and the seat at the table he and his family have always wanted, South Korea gets the rug pulled out from under them, and America gets…well, nothing so far apart from empty promises. Excellent summary. To put it in numerical terms, I’d score it +2 for NK, -1 for SK, and 0 for the USA: “Kim gets the legitimization and the seat at the table” (+1 for NK), " South Korea gets the rug pulled out from under them" (Trump just handed Kim a cessation of US-South Korea joint military exercises for the time being, +1 for NK, -1 for SK), and nothing for us. > [@](#): > > Art of the Deal, baby! The weird thing is, to the extent that Trump’s succeeded in business, it’s been by getting the better of deals (or simply screwing people over) by either dealing with people who needed him a lot more than he needed them, or making the people on the other side of the deal believe that was the case. So here’s the first time Trump’s dealing with a country that really DOES need the U.S. a lot more than the U.S. needs it, and damned if he doesn’t screw the whole thing up. Of course, that’s probably looking at it from the wrong perspective. When Trump negotiates, it’s not about the U.S.A., it’s about Trump. And he needed something badly that he could call a win, especially after the G6+1. Kim didn’t. So _of course_ he got screwed. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/525 "2018-06-12T13:07:59Z")
A couple of WTF moments from Trumps press conference: He was babbling about how he was reading and “scientifically, denuclearization takes a very very long time and that is scientific fact”. Or something like that. It almost sounds to me like he was talking in some very confused way about the half-life of radioactive materials. Which has absolutely nothing to do with the issues at hand. Can he even be this this stupid? Cause I really don’t know what else he could be talking about. Was it just a stealth brag about him being able to read? He brought up Otto Warmbier and held up the summit as some sort of proof that Otto didn’t die in vain. I don’t get the connection. Did Trump view the battered corpse of Kim”s most newsworthy victim and think…what a strong leader, I want to sit down and chat with the guy did this? Should Trudeau beat some innocent to death in order to earn Trump’s respect? Does Trump even know what “die in vain” even means? And he talked a bunch about what great friends he was with Warmbier’s parents. Which leads me to wonder what they think about this. This is what happens when I don’t turn off the TV right away when he starts blathering. Now my head hurts, ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/526 "2018-06-12T13:59:55Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > Can he even be this this stupid? Yes. This question with respect to Trump and his supporters is always yes. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/527 "2018-06-12T14:20:00Z")
Watching Trump conduct diplomacy is like watching those old SNL routines where they’d let Toonces the cat drive the car. The difference is that Toonces wasn’t real, there was no driving cat, it was all just a SNL comedy sketch. Thank you, GOP, for refusing to take the keys away from Trump. :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/528 "2018-06-12T15:22:41Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It might be stupid, or it might also be brilliant, or it might be something in between. It’s entirely possible that Trump, the president himself, can live with Kim retaining some of the weapons he already has for self-defense purposes. Maybe Trump personally doesn’t care about keeping troops in the Pacific. He does strike me as being a genuine isolationist. Now how John Bolton and how his military feel about that is another matter. But it’s the president’s word that counts most. He just doesn’t want to look stupid. So if Trump agrees to end sanctions in exchange for a freeze of his weapons program and inspections, then he doesn’t want Kim playing games. So basically, if he manages to negotiate a deal that is considerably less rigorous than the one he ripped up with Iran because he thought it wasn’t strong enough, he’ll consider it a major victory. Yes, that makes sense, or at least as much sense as anything this administration says or does does. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/529 "2018-06-12T15:58:28Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Excellent summary. To put it in numerical terms, I’d score it +2 for NK, -1 for SK, and 0 for the USA: “Kim gets the legitimization and the seat at the table” (+1 for NK), " South Korea gets the rug pulled out from under them" (Trump just handed Kim a cessation of US-South Korea joint military exercises for the time being, +1 for NK, -1 for SK), and nothing for us. In Trump’s defense, he is an inveterate liar who frequently reneges on promises, so the war games thing isn’t a lock. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/530 "2018-06-12T16:20:48Z")
I couldn’t completely dismiss that South Korea may have already primed Trump to make that offer. I mean, who knows what Trump and Moon have discussed privately? Talking is great, I’m not going to badmouth the talks at all… but so far the Iran deal is a much better one than what we have seen so far. I think this summit was probably conceived of being 90% optics, 10% substance. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/531 "2018-06-12T16:27:01Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Excellent summary. To put it in numerical terms, I’d score it +2 for NK, -1 for SK, and 0 for the USA: “Kim gets the legitimization and the seat at the table” (+1 for NK), " South Korea gets the rug pulled out from under them" (Trump just handed Kim a cessation of US-South Korea joint military exercises for the time being, +1 for NK, -1 for SK), and nothing for us. > The weird thing is, to the extent that Trump’s succeeded in business, it’s been by getting the better of deals (or simply screwing people over) by either dealing with people who needed him a lot more than he needed them, or making the people on the other side of the deal believe that was the case. > > So here’s the first time Trump’s dealing with a country that really DOES need the U.S. a lot more than the U.S. needs it, and damned if he doesn’t screw the whole thing up. > > Of course, that’s probably looking at it from the wrong perspective. When Trump negotiates, it’s not about the U.S.A., it’s about Trump. And he needed something badly that he could call a win, especially after the G6+1. Kim didn’t. So _of course_ he got screwed. First, to reiterate a couple of my past predictions in this thread which I think weren’t too far from what we’re seeing now, and will probably get even closer to what we’ll ultimately see: > [@voltaire](#): > > Here’s the thing, NK will not denuclearize anytime soon. Everybody that knows anything knows that. Trump needs a win on a pretty tight time frame and the biggest component of any such possible “win” is actually pretty obvious. He’s going to “throw SK under the bus” by forcing them to pay and/or provide for their own defense, with some U.S. troops stationed there coming home immediately upon the announcement for show. It’s something he and KJU both already want and can call a win. Throw something in about nuclear tests and missile ranges. Done deal. > [@voltaire](#): > > When you step back and look at the very basic macro view of the whole thing, I think it’s clear that now that NK has a minimally credible nuclear capability, they are now pursuing the best way to capitalize on it. It’s not a coincidence that semi-serious reunification talk pops up as soon as NK nuke-triculated, as if the two things were somehow complimentary. Reunification and denuclearization will be the dangling carrots on infinitely long sticks that NK uses to extort untold concessions from SK. NK doesn’t actually need any concessions or sanctions relief from the US if the SK tap is flowing and they have all sorts of cooperative projects to _very, very, very slowly_ “refamiliarize” the Korean people. Canceling the exercises (without even mentioning it to SK) is just the first step. KJU and Trump have now gotten together and basically agreed on the approach that it will be SK giving all the concessions that Trump and Kim agree to. It makes me think that the whole G6(+1) thing could have been an intentional display for SK to realize that if Trump can treat the US’s closest allies and neighbor so poorly, they had better not take anything for granted and would be best served by taking whatever deal Trump deigned to saddle them with. Meanwhile, even in the improbable event that NK were to _completely denuclearize_, that STILL DOES NOT make SK a whole lot safer from NK’s vast conventional weapons. Stop doing those exercises together, stop selling certain hardware platforms, start pulling troops away from the DMZ, and slowly but surely and continuously, NK can squeeze SK for more and more concessions. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/532 "2018-06-12T17:13:21Z")
Another reason for the intelligence community to love Trump. > [@Donald J. Trump to Kim Jong Un](#): > > I said do me a favor. You have this missile engine testing site. We know where it is because of the heat. It is incredible the equipment we have to be honest with you. I said can you close it up. He’s going to close it up. From full [transcript](https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/12/17452624/trump-kim-summit-transcript-press-conference-full-text) of press conference. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/533 "2018-06-12T17:38:34Z")
> [@Drunky\_Smurf](#): > > Which is still more than Obama or any other democrat has done. Not true. A few excerpts from [this web slite](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron): > [@](#): > > July 19, 1993: After a second round of talks with the United States, North Korea announces in a joint statement that it is “prepared to begin consultations with the IAEA on outstanding safeguards and other issues” and that it is ready to negotiate IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. > > June 15, 1994: Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter negotiates a deal with North Korea in which Pyongyang confirms its willingness to “freeze” its nuclear weapons program and resume high-level talks with the United States. Bilateral talks are expected to begin, provided that North Korea allows the IAEA safeguards to remain in place, does not refuel its 5-megawatt nuclear reactor, and does not reprocess any spent nuclear fuel. > > October 21, 1994: The United States and North Korea conclude four months of negotiations by adopting the “Agreed Framework” in Geneva. > > April 21-22, 1996: The United States and North Korea meet in Berlin for their first round of bilateral missile talks. > > June 11-13, 1997: The second round of U.S.-North Korean missile talks takes place in New York, with U.S. negotiators pressing North Korea not to deploy the Nodong missile and to end sales of Scud missiles and their components. The parties reach no agreement but reportedly lay the foundation for future talks. > > October 12, 2000: The United States and North Korea issue a joint statement noting that resolution of the missile issue would “make an essential contribution to fundamentally improved relations” and reiterating the two countries’ commitment to implementation of the Agreed Framework. The statement also says that Albright will visit North Korea in the near future to prepare for a possible visit by President Clinton. Basically, promising to move towards peace & disarmament is routine practice for North Korea. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/534 "2018-06-12T18:06:27Z")
Japan and South Korea need to seriously rethink the whole US Alliance now. Hope Japan ditches Article 9 and goes full military. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/535 "2018-06-12T18:44:55Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > So if Trump agrees to end sanctions in exchange for a freeze of his weapons program and inspections, then he doesn’t want Kim playing games. Yeah, North Korea’s not gonna buy that shit after he pulled out of the JCPOA. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/536 "2018-06-12T18:52:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Japan and South Korea need to seriously rethink the whole US Alliance now. Hope Japan ditches Article 9 and goes full military. You don’t really mean this do you? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/537 "2018-06-12T19:04:10Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > You don’t really mean this do you? Didn’t Trump make some comment a while back about how he was elected to put America first, and other countries elected leaders to put their own country first? It seems like **Velocity** is just suggesting that Japan would be acting consistent with the Trump Doctrine of “everyone for themselves, fuck everyone else” if they rebuilt their military. Of course, people may disagree with the Trump Doctrine of everyone should just be self-absorbed assholes and just give everyone else the finger as a matter of policy. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/538 "2018-06-12T19:32:48Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Didn’t Trump make some comment a while back about how he was elected to put America first, and other countries elected leaders to put their own country first? It seems like **Velocity** is just suggesting that Japan would be acting consistent with the Trump Doctrine of “everyone for themselves, fuck everyone else” if they rebuilt their military. > > Of course, people may disagree with the Trump Doctrine of everyone should just be self-absorbed assholes and just give everyone else the finger as a matter of policy. Exactly. At this point, _I_ don’t trust Trump and his enablers to do the right thing by Japan and SK, and it’s not much skin (directly) off my nose. It would be absolute madness if _they_ trust him more with their own security. And remember, Japan was Trump’s original boogieman before China emerged. The way that guy carries a grudge, it wouldn’t surprise me if he delights in ultimately giving them the shaft. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/539 "2018-06-12T19:34:06Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > …Hope Japan ditches Article 9 and goes full military. I dunno, they might remember that “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” stuff. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2018, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/540 "2018-06-12T19:40:25Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > I dunno, they might remember that “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” stuff. About as likely as the Fourth Reich rising up, yet the current complaint is that Germany _doesn’t spend enough_ on it’s military. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829.md?page=28)