# North Korea suspending missile testing and closing nuclear site; Trump the statesman? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 20, 2018, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829 "2018-04-20T23:09:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![SingleMalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/singlemalt/32/3961_2.png) [@SingleMalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SingleMalt)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2018, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/701 "2018-07-03T18:22:50Z")
About those missiles: There is evidence that the motors are actually old [Soviet RD-250’s](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-s-new-missile-technology-may-have-soviet-roots-n852231) scavenged from the Ukraine, and not any technology developed by North Korea. How many of those do you think NK has? Kim has a finite supply of a critical technology, so why waste them? He’s already got the American President bending over. ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/702 "2018-07-03T18:32:50Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I just don’t necessarily believe that upgrading a nuclear facility is necessarily a game-changer, and it doesn’t necessarily portend the end of diplomacy. I see it as North Korea taking precautions in case diplomacy breaks down and they determine that they need to start saber rattling again. It’s still possible that there’s some sort of tentative framework that, even if it’s not quite full denuclearization, could still reduce tensions considerably. If Kim can agree to suspend his nuke program, suspend his missile program, allow inspectors to monitor his facilities, pulls back some of his heavy artillery along the border, and stops harassing Japan and South Korea, then I would consider that a major breakthrough, regardless of whether Trump’s boasts of full denuclearization come up short. I actually do believe that there’s a way to achieve those goals to some degree. A lot of it will boil down to lifting sanctions - to what degree and when. We’re dealing with an ICBM-armed nuclear state one way or the other so you are right, the upgrades probably aren’t a game changer. This is still a bad sign. Upgrading the nuclear facility shows that North Korea intends to invest more in their nuclear arsenal to increase their danger. North Korea is a poor country with limited resources. If they believed that they were going to have to dismantle their nuclear program, they would invest their military resources in other things that would survive the “denuclearization” pledge. They aren’t doing that because what dealing with Trump has taught them is that the more nuclear power they have, the more that Trump will give them while getting nothing in return. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2018, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/703 "2018-07-03T19:17:44Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > **Hurr,** you should probably reserve some ammo. Won’t be long before you are down here telling us that our massive economic problems are because of Obama’s trade war. I’m a conservative gun owner. I’ve probably got enough ammo to build Trump’s wall out of ammo cans. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/704 "2018-07-04T14:34:58Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > There is the little matter that North Korea has desisted with launching missiles over Japan too. Because that’s what you do after you successfully build and test a nuclear deterrent. You are negotiating from a position of strength. After that, you maintain your deterrent while extracting concessions. NK is maintaining (or upgrading) their deterrent. NK have extracted concessions. Have they given Trump any concessions? None that I can see. Trump is too cowardly to tell the public the terms of his “deal”, so there’s no way to know what he asked for. All signs point to nothing more than “please don’t hurt me”. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/705 "2018-07-04T14:42:28Z")
Trump did have his eye on beachfront property, maybe he did get a little something out of it. For himself. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/706 "2018-07-04T15:02:46Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Trump did have his eye on beachfront property, maybe he did get a little something out of it. For himself. Perhaps we should check to see if he is buying land east of the San Andreas faultline. Me, I would like to live [in Otisville](http://www.rellimzone.com/images/movies/superman-1978-12.png). Seems like a nice place. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/707 "2018-07-04T15:13:48Z")
“Otisville? OTISVILLE??” ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/708 "2018-07-04T16:25:38Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > “Otisville? OTISVILLE??” “Miss Tesmacher has her own place.” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/709 "2018-07-04T17:50:01Z")
> [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](#): > > We’re dealing with an ICBM-armed nuclear state one way or the other so you are right, the upgrades probably aren’t a game changer. This is still a bad sign. Upgrading the nuclear facility shows that North Korea intends to invest more in their nuclear arsenal to increase their danger. North Korea is a poor country with limited resources. If they believed that they were going to have to dismantle their nuclear program, they would invest their military resources in other things that would survive the “denuclearization” pledge. They aren’t doing that because what dealing with Trump has taught them is that the more nuclear power they have, the more that Trump will give them while getting nothing in return. I don’t necessarily see upgrades as ominous in and of themselves. My feeling all along has been that we have no choice but to accept North Korea as a nuclear power. My concern all along has been that Trump might insist on his not having that capability. Insisting that Kim give up his nuclear weapons program entirely before giving him something in return will go nowhere, and it could lead to a complete breakdown in the process. There’s a lot to criticize about Trump’s foreign policy, but having a meeting and talking with Kim isn’t giving him something for nothing in return. It’s a move toward deescalation, which is the responsible thing to do. It’s the opposite of pounding a podium and using epithets like Little Rocket Man, and threatening fire and fury. It’s potentially more productive than the policy of insisting on crippling sanctions while refusing to talk until he spreads himself prostrate, which is only asking for trouble. It makes the threat to his regime’s survival real and the perceived danger more inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/710 "2018-07-04T18:04:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Anyone who is dumb enough to think that a cancelled exercise means the US military is, in any significant way “less prepared” or “less credible” now is probably dumb enough that they didn’t realize how the exercises showcased our preparedness and credibility in the first place. The phrasing of this response runs too close to a personal attack. Dial it back. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/711 "2018-07-07T14:00:11Z")
[North Korea says talks with Pompeo were “regrettable”](https://www.yahoo.com/newsroom/vibes/north-korea/v-78bf6652-7431-11e5-8af2-fa163e6f4a7e_c-b78c95c5-9a92-3ad2-93fd-9a6bfbc8554b_a-b78c95c5-9a92-3ad2-93fd-9a6bfbc8554b) > [@](#): > > The North provided a much harsher assessment of the talks, saying that the United States betrayed the spirit of last month’s summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim by making “one-sided and robber-like” demands on “CVID,” or the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea. > > It said the outcome of the follow-up talks was “very concerning” because it has led to a “dangerous phase that might rattle our willingness for denuclearization that had been firm.” > > “We had expected that the U.S. side would offer constructive measures that would help build trust based on the spirit of the leaders’ summit … we were also thinking about providing reciprocal measures,” an unnamed spokesman of Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency. > > “However, the attitude and stance the United States showed in the first high-level meeting (between the countries) was no doubt regrettable,” the spokesman said. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/712 "2018-07-07T14:07:27Z")
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with NK-US relations now that the trade war is fully on. Diplomatically, we are increasingly isolating ourselves, reducing our leverage in the process. I’m not saying we don’t have a lot of pull - we do. But it’s more complicated now. How do you coordinate a NK response when you’ve just launched a trade war with the one power that keeps North Korea’s regime alive, and threatened trad war with other allies in the region? Moreover, Iran sanctions are becoming a thing, putting stress on petroleum prices. Iran has also tossed out its most direct threat of retaliation yet, saying that they could block the Hormuz Strait. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/iran-guards-says-can-stop-hormuz-oil-exports-after-u-s-threat](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/iran-guards-says-can-stop-hormuz-oil-exports-after-u-s-threat) Such a provocative move could by itself start a war, which could conceivably start a global recession within a flash. Trump’s foreign policy is beginning to fight multiple diplomatic wars on multiple diplomatic fronts. Had he approached some of his battles one at a time, perhaps his approach might seem more coherent. But everything he’s done so far has lacked strategy, has been premised on mostly his own impulses. The kinds of crises he’s tasked with managing - and he’s juggling several big ones now - are situations that can go way, way south, and fast. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/713 "2018-07-07T14:23:47Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … Iran has also tossed out its most direct threat of retaliation yet, saying that they could block the Hormuz Strait. > > [Iran Threatens to Stop Hormuz Oil Exports If Own Crude Cut - Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/iran-guards-says-can-stop-hormuz-oil-exports-after-u-s-threat) > > Such a provocative move could by itself start a war … That would not go the way they think it will. It would be Praying Mantis 2.0 > [@](#): > > stop your engines, abandon ship, I intend to sink you ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/714 "2018-07-07T14:28:08Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [North Korea says talks with Pompeo were “regrettable”](https://www.yahoo.com/newsroom/vibes/north-korea/v-78bf6652-7431-11e5-8af2-fa163e6f4a7e_c-b78c95c5-9a92-3ad2-93fd-9a6bfbc8554b_a-b78c95c5-9a92-3ad2-93fd-9a6bfbc8554b) Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use. Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. He can tone it down or make concessions, but only if the other side is serious. It’s up to one man to take the deal. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/715 "2018-07-07T14:34:47Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. He can tone it down or make concessions, but only if the other side is serious. It’s up to one man to take the deal. Is that how Trump “negotiates”? Take it or leave it? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/716 "2018-07-07T14:36:55Z")
Trump negotiates from strength, all right. He also negotiates into weakness. You look at any negotiation Trump has ever undertaken, and he’s always started off in a strong position. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/717 "2018-07-07T14:38:29Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use. I love it. In other words, it literally does not matter to you if Trump succeeds or fails because Obama. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/718 "2018-07-07T14:51:15Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. Since you’re on a first name basis, do you mind passing along a message for me? It’s very brief. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/719 "2018-07-07T15:02:16Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use. > > Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. He can tone it down or make concessions, but only if the other side is serious. It’s up to one man to take the deal. No, Trump just gave them legitimacy, pageantry, a propaganda victory, and an end to joint US SK training exercises in exchange for nothing. Kind of like pulling out of the JCPOA, strengthening the hard liners in Iran and giving them an easier path towards nuclear weapons, in exchange for no benefit to the US. So far Trump is big on giving authoritarian regimes a bunch of gifts while getting nothing in return. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/720 "2018-07-07T17:04:07Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use. > > Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. He can tone it down or make concessions, but only if the other side is serious. It’s up to one man to take the deal. What kind of bet _would_ you be willing to make on this? What could possibly convince you that this bargain isn’t going to end with Trump looking good? What Trump is demanding is and remains the thing that North Korea is not willing to give him. What he demands may as well amount to saying, “All right, we’ll give you X, Y, and Z if you give us Kim Jong Un’s severed head on a silver platter.” At least, this is how North Korea sees it - attaining nuclear weapons and maintaining a nuclear arsenal has been the lynchpin of their defense strategy for several decades now, precisely because they know that as long as they have a deterrent like that, nobody is going to be ballsy enough to try to take out the Kim family, whereas rulers like Gaddafi and Hussein had a much rougher time of it after ending their nuclear programs. Trump _cannot get what he wants_. Not via negotiation. It’s like trying to get a person’s liver out of a discussion about tariffs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829.md?page=37)