# North Korea suspending missile testing and closing nuclear site; Trump the statesman?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [April 20, 2018, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829 "2018-04-20T23:09:28Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 37

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/721 "2018-07-07T17:16:09Z")

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> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#):
>
> What Trump is demanding is and remains the thing that North Korea is not willing to give him. What he demands may as well amount to saying, “All right, we’ll give you X, Y, and Z if you give us Kim Jong Un’s severed head on a silver platter.”

Except Trump’s offer lacked X, Y or Z. Master deal maker indeed.

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**Author:** ![SOJA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@SOJA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SOJA)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/722 "2018-07-07T17:51:01Z")

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Called it the day he said it would happen. This should be a lesson for Trump fans that they voted for a jackass moron. Dude got played harder than some backwoods piece of crumpet at a Phish shindig.

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**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/723 "2018-07-07T17:57:57Z")

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The OP’s question, [answered!](https://youtu.be/Zd9muK2M36c)

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**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/724 "2018-07-07T18:03:48Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> Trump negotiates from strength.

Trump has lost every negotiation he has been involved with as President. There’s no wall. There’s no repeal an replace. He was ignored by congress in all budget deals and the tax bill. His trade policy is senseless and he’s not winning.

Trump negotiates from a position of being a monkey with a machine gun: you can’t talk sense into him and he can only wreck the things that adults are working on.

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**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/725 "2018-07-07T18:14:01Z")

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> [@asahi](#):
>
> It’ll be interesting to see what happens with NK-US relations now that the trade war is fully on.

I know where they can get a good deal on soy beans.

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**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/726 "2018-07-07T18:14:11Z")

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How TF could _ **anyone** _ think that these pathetic shenanigans are anything close to “negotiating from strength”? :smack:

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**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/727 "2018-07-07T20:43:57Z")

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Potato, potahto; tomato, tomahto; negotiating from a position of strength, flailing about tantrum style in a crib. It’s all in the pronounciation.

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**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2018, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/728 "2018-07-07T21:03:12Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use.

[![](https://i.imgur.com/E0Cxn5d.jpg) ](https://i.imgur.com/E0Cxn5d.jpg)

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**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\
**Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/729 "2018-07-08T03:09:01Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use.
> 
> Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. He can tone it down or make concessions, but only if the other side is serious. It’s up to one man to take the deal.

Very simple question. How do you have any idea any of this is true? North Korea hasn’t even declared its capabilities. Trump hasn’t even declared the terms of the deal. How would you even know if this has succeeded or failed?

Sure it’s fun to be bombastic, but if you’re bombastic and the other side does nothing, then you kind of just look like a rodeo clown. Which is exactly what everybody knows Trump is.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [July 8, 2018, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/730 "2018-07-08T14:43:48Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> Trump negotiates from strength. Maybe this will work out, perhaps it won’t, but at least we are not giving North Korea 400+ Million in cash and freeing up accesses in the billions for them to use.
> 
> Donald tends to be bombastic in the early rounds of negotiation. He can tone it down or make concessions, but only if the other side is serious. It’s up to one man to take the deal.

You failed to mention that the $400 million was the Iranians’ own fucking money in the first place.

Dumb Donald totally got owned by Kim. Kim got to appear on the world stage as equal to a superpower, Donald got absolutely nothing.

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [July 12, 2018, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/731 "2018-07-12T15:33:03Z")

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North Korea snubs US, skips meeting on returning soldier remains

> [@](#):
>
> North Korean officials did not show up to a planned meeting with US officials at the demilitarized zone Thursday, where they were expected to continue discussions on repatriating the remains of Americans killed during the Korean War, a senior US official tells CNN.
> 
> There was no call or explanation from North Korean officials on why they skipped the meeting.

> **[North Korea delays meeting on returning soldier remains | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/12/politics/north-korea-us-soldier-remains/index.html)**
>
> North Korean officials did not show up to a planned meeting with US officials at the demilitarized zone Thursday, where they were expected to continue discussions on repatriating the remains of Americans killed during the Korean War, a senior US...

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [July 12, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/732 "2018-07-12T15:53:17Z")

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Trump’s trade war is making enemies out of allies (well, 'regional partner in the case of China), which is only going to complicate Trump’s efforts with North Korea.

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**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [July 12, 2018, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/733 "2018-07-12T17:31:14Z")

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> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> North Korea snubs US, skips meeting on returning soldier remains
> 
> > [@](#):
> >
> > North Korean officials did not show up to a planned meeting with US officials at the demilitarized zone Thursday, where they were expected to continue discussions on repatriating the remains of Americans killed during the Korean War, a senior US official tells CNN.
> > 
> > There was no call or explanation from North Korean officials on why they skipped the meeting.
> 
> [https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/12/politics/north-korea-us-soldier-remains/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/12/politics/north-korea-us-soldier-remains/index.html)

Let’s go to the quarry and throw stuff down there!

Okay, the underlying situation (the unreturned remains of our soldiers) isn’t funny at all, but my mental picture was of Mike Pompeo himself standing at the DMZ waiting for his counterpart and the little ceremony and the photos, etc… and then it just not happening, like he’s stood up like a bad date and he doesn’t even know if he’s stood up because there was no phone call, no text message, nothing… and then it starts raining.

Cut to a North Korean office where officer types in military uniforms laugh and high five each other watching thru CCTV cameras.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2018, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/734 "2018-07-24T11:08:19Z")

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Two interesting developments:

1. North Korea may be dismantling their missile testing facilities:

> **[North Korea: satellite images show dismantling of missile test facilities](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/north-korea-satellite-images-show-dismantling-of-missile-test-facilities-report)**
>
> Work seen as ‘important first step’ after pledge made at summit with Donald Trump

2) Fuel prices drop, indicating that someone might be helping North Korea violate sanctions.

> **[Exclusive: North Korean fuel prices drop, suggesting U.N. sanctions being...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-economy/north-korean-fuel-prices-drop-suggesting-u-n-sanctions-being-undermined-idUSKBN1KE15F)**
>
> Gasoline prices in North Korea have nearly halved since late March, market data analyzed by Reuters shows, adding weight to suspicions that fuel is finding its way into the isolated economy from China and elsewhere despite U.N. sanctions.

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**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [July 30, 2018, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/735 "2018-07-30T23:33:30Z")

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This is [**Typo Negative** ’s find](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21118240&postcount=23603); I just wanna make sure it doesn’t get missed in this thread: [U.S. spy agencies: North Korea is working on new missiles](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-spy-agencies-north-korea-is-working-on-new-missiles/ar-BBLhxFf)

> [@](#):
>
> U.S. spy agencies are seeing signs that North Korea is constructing new missiles at a factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.
> 
> Subscribe to the Post Most newsletter: Today’s most popular stories on The Washington Post
> 
> Newly obtained evidence, including satellite photos taken in recent weeks, indicates that work is underway on at least one and possibly two liquid-fueled ICBMs at a large research facility in Sanumdong, on the outskirts of Pyongyang, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe classified intelligence.
> 
> The findings are the latest to show ongoing activity inside North Korea’s nuclear and missile facilities at a time when the country’s leaders are engaged in arms talks with the United States. The new intelligence does not suggest an expansion of North Korea’s capabilities but shows that work on advanced weapons is continuing weeks after President Trump declared in a Twitter posting that Pyongyang was “no longer a Nuclear Threat.”

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**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\
**Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/736 "2018-07-31T14:01:51Z")

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Well, I for one am shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/737 "2018-07-31T14:16:55Z")

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On the plus side [it looks like the US got some remains back](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-war-us-soldiers-remains-returned-trump-kim-jong-un-a8465841.html).

> [@](#):
>
> North Korea has returned what are believed to be the remains of US soldiers killed during the 1950-53 Korean War, the latest gesture of goodwill between the two nations following the Singapore summit in June.
> 
> A US military plane made a rare trip into North Korea to retrieve 55 small, flag-draped cases of remains on Friday.

It’ll be a while (potentially years) before the contents of the cases can be verified, but if these turn out to be actual US soldiers’ remains from the Korean War I will consider this a small win for the Trump administration.

And at last, all those grieving parents of those missing Korean War soldiers can have some closure. All those parents. Yup.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/738 "2018-07-31T14:58:05Z")

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Here’s an interesting perspective from a website I’ve found to be pretty non-partisan and credible in their analysis of North Korea (38 North):

[https://www.38north.org/2018/07/gporter072618/](https://www.38north.org/2018/07/gporter072618/)

Basically, the author confirms a point I made on a different thread, which is that this activity isn’t surprising, nor is it a sign that progress cannot be made.

According to the author, North Korea never really agreed to suspend their weapons programs and made comparisons to the era of US-Soviet weapons negotiations: while both sides negotiated, they still continued to arm themselves. The linked article actually refers more to press reaction to activity at Yongbon, but the same arguments surely apply to the production of ICBMs as well. We would expect North Korea to hedge and keep its hard-earned nuke and ICBM technology within arm’s reach in case talks break down. This is not a sign that the talks are over, and the danger is that the sensationalist press and Trump’s diehard critics might cast doubt over some kind of agreement before they’ve had a chance to iron out the wrinkles in whatever tentative framework that gets established - all just to see him fail at something.

The author seems to be suggesting that insiders in the Trump administration don’t want peace with North Korea, and it was suggested that they might be using the media to sabotage negotiations before they can continue to the next phase. Seems like something the Walrus Bolton would do.

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**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\
**Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/739 "2018-07-31T15:14:30Z")

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> [@asahi](#):
>
> This is not a sign that the talks are over, and the danger is that the sensationalist press and Trump’s diehard critics might cast doubt over some kind of agreement before they’ve had a chance to iron out the wrinkles in whatever tentative framework that gets established - all just to see him fail at something.

That’s a really great take and all, but as a “diehard critic” of Trump, my criticism isn’t that I want his initiative to fail. Far from it. My criticism is there’s no substance to his initiative whatsoever. Your interpretation of continued activity is that it takes time for weapons development to roll to a stop. That’s not unreasonable, but the problem is that this is also how it looks when there’s no substantive agreement or intent to stop anything.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/740 "2018-07-31T16:18:22Z")

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> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> That’s a really great take and all, but as a “diehard critic” of Trump, my criticism isn’t that I want his initiative to fail. Far from it. My criticism is there’s no substance to his initiative whatsoever. Your interpretation of continued activity is that it takes time for weapons development to roll to a stop. That’s not unreasonable, but the problem is that this is also how it looks when there’s no substantive agreement or intent to stop anything.

I’m not saying that every critic wants him to fail, but clearly some are counting on Trump to fail and react with glee at every single development that might call his diplomatic skills into question. For the record, I think Trump’s negotiating skills are crap and he’s engaging in mostly dangerous diplomacy on a variety of fronts. I’m on record as being in agreement with most everyone here that Trump’s North Korean outreach is likely going to fail. At the same time, it would be a pleasant surprise if it somehow succeeds, and there’s the possibility at least that it could, despite what conventional wisdom would say to the contrary.

My interpretation is that both sides have to start somewhere, which is to agree to talk first. Just getting North Korea and the US in the same room was an achievement. Yes, I know Trump has been prematurely over-selling his achievements with NK, but we expected as much. Moreover, despite the obvious fact that the weapons program is still very much alive, there actually have been tangible signs of progress here and there.

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