# North Korea suspending missile testing and closing nuclear site; Trump the statesman? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 20, 2018, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829 "2018-04-20T23:09:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/761 "2019-03-01T20:46:25Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The talks have collapsed. > > [https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/world/asia/trump-kim-vietnam-summit.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/28/world/asia/trump-kim-vietnam-summit.html) > > I can’t say I’m surprised, and as I mentioned earlier in this thread (and in others), the sticking point is sanctions on North Korea and the complete dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. > > There has to be an intermediate solution that both sides are willing to accept. We have to be willing to accept NK as a member of the nuclear club and we have to be willing to offer some concessions on sanctions - which won’t be easy because Japan will have something to say about this as well. > > In exchange, North Korea needs to accept a freeze to its missile and nuclear weapons programs, and it must allow UN inspections unfettered access 24 hours a day any time they want. Even that concession is going to be hard because it’s not the nature of a totalitarian thug to agree to such concessions in practicum (remember Saddam Hussein, for instance). > > My personal disdain for Trump aside, his unique position in American politics arguably positioned him uniquely to be someone who might actually have an opportunity at getting some traction in dealing with North Korea. Trump’s not accountable or tethered to status quo politics, which is an opportunity for change. Unfortunately, I think having Bolton (and perhaps Pompeo as well, but especially Bolton) means that the US is probably going to make offering a ‘middle ground’ possible, and I think a middle ground is the only real way out of this impasse for the time being. You meant “impossible” I presume? As I said back in June: (note contemporaneous bolding) > [@voltaire](#): > > Pretty clear what the supposed roadmap is. Turn down the military heat to a simmer (mostly in ways that allows the US to scale down military expenditures and deployments, natch) and dangle economic inducements offered by SK, Japan & China (not US, natch), hoping that the prospect of all those will convince NK to disarm _ **as a prerequisite** _ to begin receiving those inducements. > > The obvious sticking point will be when Kim starts making small gestures towards disarmament, but will be hesitant to go full CVID, with all that entails. It will then become a long, drawn-out game to see how many inducements they can get upfront, before full CVID is achieved. > > It could work, but the timetable is unlikely to be to Trump’s liking. I’d be surprised if full, credible CVID is achieved within Trump’s lifetime with that kind of approach. It’s basically setup to encourage delaying tactics and foot-dragging, until one or more of the parties has had enough. And as Trump said back in June: > [@Trump](#): > > No. I think he will do it. I really believe it. It was really the engine testing site in addition to all of the other things that they agreed to do. They have a powerful engine testing site. Again, we’re able to see because of the heat it emits. I’m able to — I’m very happy with those two points. The two points you mentioned. You may be referring to the thing not in. The engine testing site. \*\*\*I think he will do these things. I may be wrong. I may stand before you in six months and say, hey, I was wrong. I don’t know I’ll ever admit that. I’ll find some excuse. * * * ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/762 "2019-03-01T21:14:29Z")
I knew I originally wanted to make another point in my post above, but it just came back to me upon reread… > [@asahi](#): > > We have to be willing to accept NK as a member of the nuclear club… Wait, wut? That’s not how any of this works! Kicking them out of the nuclear club is the whole point of this all, otherwise Japan, SK and others will want to join, too. You simply can’t expect the world to regularly feed your people while you spend your resources building weapon systems which will make future threats more effective. You think we should lessen sanctions AND accept the nukes permanently?! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/763 "2019-03-01T21:17:27Z")
> [@voltaire](#): > > You meant “impossible” I presume? Yes, correct - sorry. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/764 "2019-03-01T21:22:23Z")
> [@voltaire](#): > > I knew I originally wanted to make another point in my post above, but it just came back to me upon reread… > Wait, wut? > That’s not how any of this works! Kicking them out of the nuclear club is the whole point of this all, otherwise Japan, SK and others will want to join, too. You simply can’t expect the world to regularly feed your people while you spend your resources building weapon systems which will make future threats more effective. You think we should lessen sanctions AND accept the nukes permanently?! As long as the current regime is in power, I don’t see how we force them to give up their nuclear weapons. Kim has no incentive to give them up and every incentive to keep them. His deal is this: lift some sanctions just enough so that his regime isn’t feeling the pressure, and he’ll stop building missiles, building nukes, and shooting missiles over Japan and threatening to blow up the Korean peninsula. He might give Trump more time to reconsider, but that won’t always be the case. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/765 "2019-03-01T21:35:10Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As long as the current regime is in power, I don’t see how we force them to give up their nuclear weapons. Kim has no incentive to give them up and every incentive to keep them. > > His deal is this: lift some sanctions just enough so that his regime isn’t feeling the pressure, and he’ll stop building missiles, building nukes, and shooting missiles over Japan and threatening to blow up the Korean peninsula. He might give Trump more time to reconsider, but that won’t always be the case. Well, I know what Kim _wants_, and it is a conundrum, to be sure. But you think Trump/we should just give him what he wants?! As for incentives, there are \*innumerable \*incentives on the table. I’ve never expressed any confidence that they would ever work, but they are there and can’t be denied. Shit, not least among the incentives would be sharing a Nobel prize with his best pal and living in peace and prosperity in a reunified Korea happily ever after. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/766 "2019-03-01T22:08:00Z")
> [@voltaire](#): > > Well, I know what Kim _wants_, and it is a conundrum, to be sure. But you think Trump/we should just give him what he wants?! In the short-term, we take incremental steps toward a longer term goal of possible denuclearization. We lift sanctions to ease pressure on the regime and to allow food and energy to go into the country on a limited scale. In turn, they must declare all military facilities that are involved in missile and nuclear weapons production and allow international inspectors. I would also much rather see multilateral talks than bilateral, which is partly why I have suspected all along that Kim is just using this as an opportunity to dislodge the United States from East Asian politics. If that’s the case, then we could become politically irrelevant - or much less so - before the process of denuclearization ever has a chance to be completed. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/767 "2019-03-01T22:30:23Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > In the short-term, we take incremental steps toward a longer term goal of possible denuclearization. We lift sanctions to ease pressure on the regime and to allow food and energy to go into the country on a limited scale. In turn, they must declare all military facilities that are involved in missile and nuclear weapons production and allow international inspectors. > > I would also much rather see multilateral talks than bilateral, which is partly why I have suspected all along that Kim is just using this as an opportunity to dislodge the United States from East Asian politics. If that’s the case, then we could become politically irrelevant - or much less so - before the process of denuclearization ever has a chance to be completed. No. Just…no. The last thing we want to do, now, is take the pressure off of the NKs without real, solid and substantial concessions on their part. And they aren’t giving them so far. This is exactly what I thought Trump was going to do, basically make a really, really bad deal because it would shift public attention and appease those who think like you seem too. If the NK’s agree to disarm completely wrt nuclear weapons and agree to halt all ballistic missile testing, THEN we can talk about taking the pressure off…once we put in place some sort of verification system to ensure they have, in fact, done what they said they would. I’d also want some sort of automatic sanctions that go back into place if they violate any of their agreements. As far as I know, multi-lateral talks have gotten us exactly as far as these bi-lateral ones have, and my expectation is that this would remain the same regardless. Until and unless North Korea knows…knows for a fact…that the only way they are going to get anything is to give up their nukes, it won’t matter if it’s the US, China, Japan, South Korea and Zimbabwe for that matter, or just the US. China won’t apply the pressure they could, and NK won’t care about the rest, as long as it thinks that it can have it’s cake and eat it too. This is the one time Trump did something right…by doing nothing at all. I wish he’d do more nothing, maybe do nothing for the rest of his term. It would be a great benefit to us all… ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/768 "2019-03-01T22:54:53Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > As has been said before, the talks only “collapsed” from the US’s point of view. For Korea, it was a smashing success, when their leader forced the President of the United States of America to meet him in Vietnam so Jong could say “Thank u, next” to Trump, causing the US Presidential Delegation to flee Vietnam with Trump’s tail between his legs. > > You know. Like a dog. Yeah, for the second time, a US president was forced to retreat form Vietnam. The only difference is, is that this time, it was North Korea that beat us. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/769 "2019-03-02T03:50:27Z")
> [@XT](#): > > No. Just…no. The last thing we want to do, now, is take the pressure off of the NKs without real, solid and substantial concessions on their part. And they aren’t giving them so far. This is exactly what I thought Trump was going to do, basically make a really, really bad deal because it would shift public attention and appease those who think like you seem too. If the NK’s agree to disarm completely wrt nuclear weapons and agree to halt all ballistic missile testing, THEN we can talk about taking the pressure off…once we put in place some sort of verification system to ensure they have, in fact, done what they said they would. I’d also want some sort of automatic sanctions that go back into place if they violate any of their agreements. Let’s rewind the videotape. About 12-15 months ago, Kim Jung Un was firing missiles over Japanese airspace and well on his way to building a pretty respectable nuclear stockpile. Right now, by all estimates, he has considerably slowed, if not stopped, production of missiles and nukes. He still has the ones he produced before, but so what? You don’t understand how this works: there is no way that North Korea will agree to disarm before sanctions are taken off the table. That assumption demonstrates that you clearly don’t understand how he thinks. \*\*Kim Jung Un has a 50/50 chance of being able to lob a missile or two toward the United States and destroying Los Angeles and San Francisco. \*\* If the U.S. does anything to threaten his regime, war is on the table. And what he wants us to understand is that war could have consequences. Sorry, but you don’t understand how this works ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/770 "2019-03-02T14:15:08Z")
Please show your work on the calculation of that probability. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/771 "2019-03-02T14:37:07Z")
It’s unfortunate that the summit didn’t go well, but it’s not surprising. The USA was showing signs of being very deluded about what North Korea was putting on the table. And maybe the USA’s wishes were reasonable, but the summit shouldn’t have happened if the American negotiators hadn’t bothered to, like, read what North Korea was saying very consistently. > [@asahi](#): > > Right now, by all estimates, he has considerably slowed, if not stopped, production of missiles and nukes. North Korea has stopped testing them, but they’re probably still **producing** them. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/772 "2019-03-02T20:03:05Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Let’s rewind the videotape. About 12-15 months ago, Kim Jung Un was firing missiles over Japanese airspace and well on his way to building a pretty respectable nuclear stockpile. Right now, by all estimates, he has considerably slowed, if not stopped, production of missiles and nukes. He still has the ones he produced before, but so what? > > You don’t understand how this works: there is no way that North Korea will agree to disarm before sanctions are taken off the table. That assumption demonstrates that you clearly don’t understand how he thinks. \*\*Kim Jung Un has a 50/50 chance of being able to lob a missile or two toward the United States and destroying Los Angeles and San Francisco. \*\* If the U.S. does anything to threaten his regime, war is on the table. And what he wants us to understand is that war could have consequences. > > Sorry, but you don’t understand how this works Building nukes is a pretty expensive process. NK would like nothing more than to stop dumping money down the proliferation hole, but they cannot and will not, as long as there is any threat of war against them. Nukes prevent invasion, as you can either use them on your own territory against the invaders (something that very little in the international community would condemn you for), or should your regime be in danger of being overtaken, you can use them as retaliation against the home of the countries that are at war with you. So, yeah, if the US is toppling the regime, then they may well do what they can with the weapons they have. We don’t fully know the capabilities of the missles, but it is actually unlikely that they would “destroy” LA, even if they hit, they would only take out a square mile or two, not the whole of the city, and the probability of them even hitting is rather slim as well. Chances are much higher that a dolphin is bonked in the head as the missile falls well short and sinks into the ocean. However, launching their nukes is essentially suicide, and would only be used as a last ditch. I personally do not think that we should retaliate in kind, being that conventional weapons are more then enough to completely destroy the military and govt of NK, but we probably will use them and utterly fuck up the entire country. They will not launch them unprovoked, they will not launch them because negotiations are breaking down, they will not launch them for “anything” the U.S. does to threaten his regime, but only in response to the actual dissolution of his government. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/773 "2019-03-06T03:41:37Z")
> **[North Korea Seen Reassembling Rocket Test Site](https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/700551337/north-korea-seen-reassembling-rocket-test-site)** > > Just days after the U.S.-North Korea summit ended in stalemate, satellite images show workers have been active at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, a partially disassembled missile test facility. As expected, Kim is going back to putting pressure on the US. Don’t expect China to help enforce sanctions this time around. The US wanted direct face-to-face talks? Well that’s what it got. The real takeaway from this is that Trump can’t negotiate for shit. He’s good at “negotiating” when he has the leverage to walk away, but when it comes to presidentin’ he’s too fucking stupid to realize when walking away won’t work. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/774 "2019-03-06T15:30:10Z")
Is there even any evidence that North Korea is capable of putting a nuclear warhead on a missile? Or capable of delivering one in any means short of a ship? ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/775 "2019-03-06T16:09:14Z")
I move we either close this thread or at least severely re-title it. The OP has been debunked more times than the Loch Ness Monster. Now it hangs out in the forum like a dirty gym sock in the J. Paul Getty Museum. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/776 "2019-03-06T16:14:22Z")
The author of the OP has also been booted, possibly multiple times, but it’s worth having an ongoing discussion of the NK situation. I wouldn’t mind a change to a more accurate and generic title though (e.g. “US-NK missile negotiations thread”). ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/777 "2019-03-06T16:21:00Z")
> [@captmurdock](#): > > i move we either close this thread or at least severely re-title it. The op has been debunked more times than the loch ness monster. Now it hangs out in the forum like a dirty gym sock in the j. Paul getty museum. This post makes 8-year old me all sorts of sadz. COME BACK, NESSIE! I STILL BELIEVE! (And, no, I think the title… combined with thread starter (which, I assume, cannot be changed)… is _perfect_.) 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/778 "2019-03-06T18:19:40Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > I move we either close this thread or at least severely re-title it. The OP has been debunked more times than the Loch Ness Monster. Now it hangs out in the forum like a dirty gym sock in the J. Paul Getty Museum. I like the title. Like fine spirits, it grows ever more delicious with age. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/779 "2019-03-06T18:43:28Z")
I vote we just add ‘(LOL!)’ to the end of the title and call it a day. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2019, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829/780 "2019-03-06T19:13:10Z")
I would laugh except for the fact that Donald Trump’s ego and John Bolton’s delusional bellicosity make for an extremely dangerous foreign policy cocktail. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-suspending-missile-testing-and-closing-nuclear-site-trump-the-statesman/812829.md?page=40)