# North Korea: What's next? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 9, 2006, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775 "2006-10-09T03:22:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2006, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/81 "2006-10-10T18:36:43Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] So, if you were president what would you do? Negotiation won’t work, they’re not going to give up their nuclear hole card for any amount of food or fuel oil. [/QUOTE] A sufficiently tight embargo is usefull not only to convince Kim to change (unlikely), but also to convince his generals to revolt and overthrow him. When the ruling class begins to starve, change will occur. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2006, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/82 "2006-10-10T18:43:13Z")
In order to negotiate, both sides have to want to. I see no evidence that NK wants to negotiate in good faith. We have nothing they want. And we can’t “isolate” them. As some experts have said, how can you isolate the most isolated country in the world-- a country that has purposely isolated iteslf? Kim wants the bomb, he doesn’t want anything from us except for us not to invade him. And the best way for him to ensure we don’t invade is to get the bomb. The best we can do is deal with it as a reality. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2006, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/83 "2006-10-10T18:49:02Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] A sufficiently tight embargo is usefull not only to convince Kim to change (unlikely), but also to convince his generals to revolt and overthrow him. When the ruling class begins to starve, change will occur. [/QUOTE] We are already not trading with North Korea. We can’t not trade with him less than zero. And the ruling class will never starve in Korea. The peasants will starve, but the generals won’t starve. As long as someone has a gun they can use that gun to take rice away from starving people. Even if millions are starving the generals will not starve. And starving people generally don’t hold revolutions, they generally just die. You have to have surplus food to march and revolt and fight. Starving people generally are too busy searching for bark and leaves and pine needles to revolt. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2006, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/84 "2006-10-10T18:51:11Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] A sufficiently tight embargo is usefull not only to convince Kim to change (unlikely), but also to convince his generals to revolt and overthrow him. When the ruling class begins to starve, change will occur. [/QUOTE] Let us know when you convince China to do that. We don’t trade with NK. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2006, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/85 "2006-10-10T19:13:33Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Let us know when you convince China to do that. We don’t trade with NK. [/QUOTE] I never suggested that we are trading with NK. However, we are on negotiating terms with China, and we can encourage them to cut off supplies. It appears they may arrive at that conclusion on their own anyway. Sooner or later, China will see NK as a nothing but a big pain in the ass, and cut off the gravy train. Then the generals will starve, and change will occur. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2006, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/86 "2006-10-10T19:34:02Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] I never suggested that we are trading with NK. However, we are on negotiating terms with China, and we can encourage them to cut off supplies. It appears they may arrive at that conclusion on their own anyway. Sooner or later, China will see NK as a nothing but a big pain in the ass, and cut off the gravy train. Then the generals will starve, and change will occur. [/QUOTE] Unfortunately, nuclear war comes under the heading of “change”. That’s why (I think) Kim Jong-il acts crazy. Whether he means it or not - it’s hard to tell - his best play is to convince everyone, allies included, that if too much pressure is brought to bear he will drop the Big One on Japan or Seoul. Or Beijing. Best case scenario as far as I can tell is Dear Leader meeting with an unfortunate accident - he was playing with a gun and it went off ten or fifteen times. SK has the best chance of bringing that off. It’s hard to tell if Kim scares his generals as much as he scares the rest of the civilized world - are they really dumb enough to die for this clown? If Kim makes threatening gestures towards a nuclear attack on someone, will there be a coup of some sort? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carnac_the_Magnificent)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/87 "2006-10-11T02:18:55Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] No, I’m not willing to bet our security on the paranoia of the Dear Leader. I just think that the scenario is very low probability. Anyway, whether North Korea intends to give away a nuke, or use the nuke themselves, the question becomes, what are we going to do about it? And the answer is, there’s nothing we can do about it short of declaring war on North Korea. North Korea either has a nuke, or it doesn’t, and it will either keep its nuke or give it away, and it will either detonate its nuke or it won’t. And there’s not much we can do about it short of promising to obliterate North Korea if they start a war. So, if you were president what would you do? Negotiation won’t work, they’re not going to give up their nuclear hole card for any amount of food or fuel oil. The only purpose to diplomacy at this time is to keep the other parties from going wobbly. So we talk with China, Russia, South Korea and Japan and present a united front. Other than that, nothing. [/QUOTE] The other purpose for diplomacy is to give the impression of people doing serious work. When you can’t point to anything substantive, create the atmosphere of progress. Incredible or no, Republicans today continue to insist that much of the blame for NK’s development of a nuclear arsenal lies at the feet of Bill Clinton, whose allegedly “inconsistent message” to NK emboldened Kim to move forward. The truth, however, is that North Korea has been hell-bent on developing a nuclear arsenal and if that means 10 million more peasants must die in the exchange, so be it. Nothing will stop Kim from realizing his dream and hoping for an internal coup is pie in the sky. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/88 "2006-10-11T02:23:47Z")
[QUOTE=Carnac the Magnificent!] Incredible or no, Republicans today continue to insist that much of the blame for NK’s development of a nuclear arsenal lies at the feet of Bill Clinton, whose allegedly “inconsistent message” to NK emboldened Kim to move forward. The truth, however, is that North Korea has been hell-bent on developing a nuclear arsenal and if that means 10 million more peasants must die in the exchange, so be it. Nothing will stop Kim from realizing his dream and hoping for an internal coup is pie in the sky. [/QUOTE] Perhaps the “blame” should be shared. This is from a March 2003, article: > [@](#): > > Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, sat on the board of a company which three years ago sold two light water nuclear reactors to North Korea - a country he now regards as part of the “axis of evil” and which has been targeted for regime change by Washington because of its efforts to build nuclear weapons. > > Mr Rumsfeld was a non-executive director of ABB, a European engineering giant based in Zurich, when it won a $200m (£125m) contract to provide the design and key components for the reactors. The current defence secretary sat on the board from 1990 to 2001, earning $190,000 a year. He left to join the Bush administration. > > The reactor deal was part of President Bill Clinton’s policy of persuading the North Korean regime to positively engage with the west. Source: [The two faces of Rumsfeld | World news | The Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,2763,952289,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/89 "2006-10-11T06:20:07Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] I never suggested that we are trading with NK. However, we are on negotiating terms with China, and we can encourage them to cut off supplies. It appears they may arrive at that conclusion on their own anyway. Sooner or later, China will see NK as a nothing but a big pain in the ass, and cut off the gravy train. Then the generals will starve, and change will occur. [/QUOTE] That’s why I suggested you let us know when you convince China to cut off trade. China would probably rather have a nuclear NK than a destabilized NK or a NK that sought a different patron. That’s why I suggested it will take a big move on Japan’s part to get China to act-- they need more incentive than they have now. MHO, of course, but I’d be willing to bet on it (literally). ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/90 "2006-10-11T06:43:34Z")
The U.S. can also impose a blockade on North Korea with the putative excuse that they can’t risk weapons transfers. The U.S. can cut off arms sales to Iran, for instance. If China plays ball, they could cut off so much trade and money that they could potentially force a revolution or a regime change. I’m not saying that this is necessarily the best policy, but it is an option other than all-out war or doing nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/91 "2006-10-11T07:17:57Z")
[QUOTE=nameless] I’d really like to see some kind of psychological profile on Kim Jong-Il. I feel his move here was not irrational–just extremely antagonistic. He fears an invasion, and not entirely, IMO, without reason. [/quote] I don’t think there was ever a serious risk of invasion from any of his enemies. The United States wasn’t going to take military action against the wishes of South Korea, and up until this test the South Koreans have been extremely unhappy with anything that might antagonize the North, let alone even come close to agreeing to outright war. Even without nuclear weapons the North has long had enough conventional weapons to set South Korea back into the stone ages, at least the areas of South Korea near the North Korean border. > [@](#): > > What will be interesting is his response to economic sanctions, which is a tactic that might be employed at this point. Would he interpret them as an act of war? Or will he deal with it, perhaps risking some sort of popular rebellion (assuming sanctions greatly decreased the quality of life in North Korea). They’ve said today they will regard economic sanctions as an act of war. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/92 "2006-10-11T07:29:42Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] And while NK can’t put a plutonium bomb in a rocket yet, they could certainly put it aboard a plane. It may be a 1940s-era nuclear delivery system, but it worked then. [/QUOTE] Who would they use this plane on? About the only target they could hit with a conventional bomber plane would be China or South Korea, I genuinely don’t think a North Korean bomber would be able to make it to Japan before being shot down. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/93 "2006-10-11T12:18:32Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] That’s why I suggested you let us know when you convince China to cut off trade. [/QUOTE] I predict China will impose a limited embargo on NK withing 30 days. I also predict the UN will authorize some kind of blockade and inspection of ships entering and leaving NK ports. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/94 "2006-10-11T14:38:19Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] They’ve said today they will regard economic sanctions as an act of war. [/QUOTE] And respond how? [_yawn_] ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/95 "2006-10-11T14:45:50Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] And respond how? [_yawn_] [/QUOTE] By shelling the capital of south korea? By giving a bunch of eastern european computer geeks 2 million dollars to create havoc? Maybe I just have a fertile imagination but I can think of a zillion ways a nutter head of state, with access at least to plutonium, if not a working bomb can ‘wage war’. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/96 "2006-10-11T14:57:11Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] By shelling the capital of south korea? By giving a bunch of eastern european computer geeks 2 million dollars to create havoc? Maybe I just have a fertile imagination but I can think of a zillion ways a nutter head of state, with access at least to plutonium, if not a working bomb can ‘wage war’. [/QUOTE] Any that don’t mean automatic regime suicide? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/97 "2006-10-11T15:05:13Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Any that don’t mean automatic regime suicide? [/QUOTE] You seem to be laboring under the impression that the leadership in NK makes the same calculations that you do…and that they are fully rational. Maybe they are…but maybe they aren’t too. I don’t think that NK threatening military action of the sanctions continue is anything to _yawn_ at myself… -XT ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/98 "2006-10-11T15:09:31Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Any that don’t mean automatic regime suicide? [/QUOTE] Anonymously funded hackers for one. Same for terrorists funded through enough cut-outs. An oil tanker exploding in NYC harbour or whatever. ‘Accidents’ to politicians. Poisoned water supplies. There are countless destructive things to do with enough room for doubt as to the culprits. Certainly enough doubt to stop a full-scale US attack. It’s not like the USA doesn’t have a whole world of enemies. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/99 "2006-10-11T15:17:12Z")
What are blockades going to do expect starve the populace into stampeding over the border? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775/100 "2006-10-11T15:24:11Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] And respond how? [_yawn_] [/QUOTE] Are you forgetting that we have a few thousand US troops right on the DMZ? There are any number of scenarios in which they could become targets and then what are we going to do about it, invade them? With what? Nuke them? That would be insane. The best thing we could do would be to get back to something similar to the '94 agreement. Clinton was pretty successful at keeping NK in line. We should learn from what worked. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korea-whats-next/375775.md?page=6)