# North Korean Defense **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 30, 2014, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974 "2014-06-30T00:51:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2014, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/41 "2014-06-30T19:25:40Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > So your solution to preventing war on the Korean peninsula is to start a war on the Korean peninsula? Yeah, I think Japan tried that back in 1941 – I don’t recall it working for them all that well. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2014, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/42 "2014-06-30T19:38:07Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > I have been to South Korea and they live in constant fear of a massive attack, and it is wearing them down. Attacking North Korea is likely to worsen rather than alleviate that fear. Just saying. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2014, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/43 "2014-06-30T21:37:25Z")
I would assume not very good. I’m not sure what all technology exists, but I know in the 2nd gulf war patriot missiles were being used to shoot down Iraqi SCUD missiles. There has only recently been developed technology to shoot down artillery pieces (Israel’s Iron Dome project which South Korea has tried to buy for defensive purposes). But patriot missiles are fairly recent, and NK’s military is 50 years out of date. Not only that but NK doesn’t really need defensive capabilities, they are using the strategy ‘the best defense is a good offense’. As long as they can fire WMD, conventional artillery and send commando units into SK and Japan they don’t need the ability to shoot down missiles. The human and financial cost of war is too high for NK’s neighbors to ever let that happen and NK knows it, even though NK surely knows their official military will be wiped out in a week in case of an actual all out war. ---
**Author:** ![ExTank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/35a633/32.png) [@ExTank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ExTank)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2014, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/44 "2014-06-30T23:03:42Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > How can the West let an unstable egomaniac determine when the next nuclear war is going to start? How can this all turn out well for everyone involved? The West isn’t “letting” anything happen. China likes N. Korea just the way it is, and that’s the 1,000lb gorilla in the room. If and when China gets tired of N. Korea, things will change; until then, they will remain as they are. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/45 "2014-07-01T00:29:20Z")
> [@ExTank](#): > > The West isn’t “letting” anything happen. China likes N. Korea just the way it is, and that’s the 1,000lb gorilla in the room. > > If and when China gets tired of N. Korea, things will change; until then, they will remain as they are. I’ve heard that before from various sources, but I don’t understand what support China gives NK. NK only cares about keeping the elite 0.1% happy lest they use their military/business/political prowess to foment a coup. If the people are starving, freezing, in the dark and miserable then the regime doesn’t care. So sanctions or a low standard of living don’t seem like they would matter to the regime. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/46 "2014-07-01T00:36:24Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’ve heard that before from various sources, but I don’t understand what support China gives NK. [Food and energy, primarily](http://www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korea-relationship/p11097). Some money, too. China is also NKs biggest trading partner. Not that China needs North Korea as a trading partner. It’s a way to give hem some support and still get something out of it. It does mostly get funneled to the military and the elite, but imagine their consternation if the source of their bribes cut them off. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/47 "2014-07-01T01:53:52Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I would assume not very good. I’m not sure what all technology exists, but I know in the 2nd gulf war patriot missiles were being used to shoot down Iraqi SCUD missiles. Don’t you mean the first ? I don’t think Saddam had any SCUDs left the second time around. Also, while I remember the Patriot system making the news regularly back then as the newfangled whizbang bit of tech, I think reports have come up more recently that their effectiveness at actually hitting anything was vastly overplayed. Quick & dirty Wiki quote to prove I’m not talking straight out of my arse : [QUOTE=Wiki] In response to the testimonies and other evidence, the staff of the House Government Operations Subcommittee on Legislation and National Security reported, “The Patriot missile system was not the spectacular success in the Persian Gulf War that the American public was led to believe. There is little [evidence](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence) to prove that the Patriot hit more than a few [Scud](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scud) missiles launched by Iraq during the Gulf War, and there are some doubts about even these engagements. The public and the [United States Congress](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress) were misled by definitive statements of success issued by administration and Raytheon representatives during and after the war.”[[33]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_missile#cite_note-33) A _[Fifth Estate](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Estate_%28TV%29)_ [documentary](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Documentary_film) quotes the former Israeli Defense Minister as saying the Israeli government was so dissatisfied with the performance of the missile defense, they were preparing their own military retaliation on Iraq regardless of U.S. objections.[[34]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_missile#cite_note-34) [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/48 "2014-07-01T02:04:26Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > China is also NKs biggest trading partner. Not that China needs North Korea as a trading partner. It’s a way to give hem some support and still get something out of it. They don’t need them, but they like having them. For China, North Korea is a handy source of raw materials, because N. Korea has large amounts of valuable minerals, and no real health or safety standards to speak of. So, the Chinese mining companies come in, provide hard currency, and in exchange, get slave miners. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/49 "2014-07-01T13:38:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The US can’t even shoot down the US’s best missiles. We probably can’t shoot down our own worst missiles. That seems a bit over-stated. [Cite](http://www.independentvoice.com/2014/06/22/42728/anti-missile-succesful-intercept-validates-new-us-defense-against-north-korea), [cite](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense). Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/50 "2014-07-01T18:37:32Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > 1. Evidently you didn’t glean a lot while there. The ROK, and Seoul in particular, do not “live in constant fear of attack”. The ROK government knows full well that the combined forces of the UN Command and the ROK will stave off an actual attack from the DPRK. The PRC also is quite committed to their idea of “stability on the Korean peninsula,” meaning that the PRC will withdraw all support for the DPRK if they attack the South. You might recall that South Korea and the PRC have a bit of trade going on between those two countries. > 2. Zero. There is no chance of a popular uprising. > 3. First off: You don’t know KJE is actually unstable. Next: Nobody is really sure that KJE is the one actually in control, that he’s not a figure-head. Third: As mentioned already, the DPRK cannot deliver nukes anywhere yet. 1. I agree with that. The ROK public is concerned about NK provocations that kill South Koreans or put them in danger (like the Cheonan sinking or Yeonpyeon-do shelling). However there isn’t a general large day to day fear of an all out NK attack on the south. Perhaps it’s less feared than it should be even, but I agree it’s not something ‘wearing down’ ROK society. 2. That I don’t agree with. There’s no chance until some day suddenly there is, and it happens. It’s impossible to predict when that might be though. 3. I agree we don’t know if this NK leader or previous ones were actually unstable in a clinical mental sense. We can surmise they have a quite distorted view of reality, a pretty consistent theme of accounts which make it from the inner circle to the outside world. But it’s a pretty distorted place so pretty warped internal policies might be the right ones for the regime to preserve itself as long as possible. It’s again impossible to predict when/if such warped behavior would intersect with external realities in a such a way as to cause war. However, there is IMO not much reason to have comfort that a nuclear armed NK is a stable situation based on China’s supposed stabilizing influence, or based on Kim acting in his enlightened self interest. It’s fair enough to say there’s no rational reason for Kim to immediately start a nuclear war as soon as he achieves the ability to deliver nuclear weapons reasonably reliably, and no clear evidence he’s irrational. But that doesn’t mean the risk of very bad things won’t increase as NK gets operational nuclear weapons capability. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2014, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/51 "2014-07-01T20:58:47Z")
The current leader of North Korea was partially educated outside the country. He very well might have a distorted view of his own importance given how he came to be tapped for leadership, but it’s unlikely that his view of reality is all that distorted. China does not support a “nuclear North Korea”. To the contrary, the PRC government is–as has been stated by plenty of knowledgeable observers, both on and off this forum–committed to “stability on the Korean peninsula”. It’s fairly obvious that North Korea having nuclear weapons that they’d actually be able to deliver would chuck stability out the window in a flash. How would there be a popular uprising? Do you have any idea of how North Korean society operates? How the people are educated? How pervasive the internal security operation is? How isolated the population is from “external reality”? What happens if someone’s caught even talking about forbidden issues? When the state supply system collapsed, that was the ripest time for a popular uprising. The North Korean population, of course, knows what will happen to them for defying their government. An uprising didn’t happen; what did happen was more people leaving the country. And that action condemned members of their family. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2014, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974/52 "2014-07-02T02:41:18Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > Last time I checked Bigfork wasn’t threatening it’s neighbors and didn’t have any nukes. But Great Falls does. More than NK, I’d guess, so a preemptive strike from Wyoming or North Dakota might be in order. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-defense/691974.md?page=2)