# North Korean Military Strength **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [March 20, 2013, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459 "2013-03-20T16:22:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/21 "2013-03-20T20:28:36Z")
> [@appleciders](#): > > I’m not sure you’re quite understanding the problem. North Korea has [_almost twice as many artillery pieces as the United States_](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artillery#Modern_operations). But of course, the minute NK starts using them is the minute the dynasty ends. Doesn’t matter how much damage they inflict initially. At that point they’re toast, and ought perfectly well to know it. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/22 "2013-03-20T20:38:47Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > Understood, but at what point do you say “The crazy guy just might do it?” and then preempt with a tactile strike (either conventional or nuke). Depending on who you ask - never. It’s only recently the US adopted a pre-emptive first strike philosophy for Iraq, and, as it happens, the reasoning that led up to that first strike was later found to be faulty, whether it was the threat of an imminent attack or the presence of WMDs. So our modern dalliance with first pre-emptive strikes is 0 for 1 so far. You can never be 100% certain. And especially in the case of North Korea, there’s a long history of hot air and not a lot of overt action. Worse, if we employ pre-emption, other countries can do the same thing and still claim the moral and legal high ground with a straight face. Also, as mentioned above, they have, at most, one shot to attack. And that will almost certainly fail. As much as everybody claims ‘insanity’ of the Kims, North Korea hasn’t actually come close to launching an attack on the South at any point over the last 5 decades. They know it’s suicide. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/23 "2013-03-20T20:52:51Z")
> [@Sal\_Ammoniac](#): > > But of course, the minute NK starts using them is the minute the dynasty ends. Doesn’t matter how much damage they inflict initially. At that point they’re toast, and ought perfectly well to know it. NK already used their artillery to shell an island under South Korean control, killing a few south koreans in the process a few years ago. Worldwide response? Basically nothing. So evidently there is some acceptable limit to just how many artillery shells can be fired before we ACTUALLY respond in any way whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/24 "2013-03-20T21:43:15Z")
> [@Sal\_Ammoniac](#): > > But of course, the minute NK starts using them is the minute the dynasty ends. Doesn’t matter how much damage they inflict initially. At that point they’re toast, and ought perfectly well to know it. > [@drewtwo99](#): > > NK already used their artillery to shell an island under South Korean control, killing a few south koreans in the process a few years ago. Worldwide response? Basically nothing. > > So evidently there is some acceptable limit to just how many artillery shells can be fired before we ACTUALLY respond in any way whatsoever. This is the problem - not that they’ll do something suicidally terminal, but that they do something incredibly provocative - a punch to the nose - then run behind their fence and ask “Whattaya gonna do bout that?!” They shelled an island and nothing happened except loud talk and UN resolutions. They sank a SK navy ship unprovoked. We did nothing. If they lob 500 shells into SK and then stop, what will we do? What if the shells only cause 100 or 200 deaths? 50 deaths? Like I said last post, they are masters of the provocative action. They know exactly how to push the limits, and they are not batshit crazy, they are doing it for internal political reasons not to hurt the outside. They want to keep things risky enough that everyone in the country does what the leader says, but not so provocative that the SK/USA takes out the North. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/25 "2013-03-20T21:49:50Z")
I wonder how many MLRSes South Korea has? ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/26 "2013-03-20T22:03:30Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > I think the West has armed South Korea well enough, but I don’t know the troop strength of the North vs. the South. From [IISS](http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/) (International Institute of Strategic Studies): > [@](#): > > Orbats and equipment > > North Korea’s armed forces are composed of nearly 1.1m active-duty personnel and some 4.7m reserves, making them the world’s fifth largest active military force. Although precise conversion rates for the North Korean Won to the US dollar are difficult to ascertain, North Korea officially maintains an annual defence budget of about $1.5bn to support these forces, but some estimates of actual expenditure are more than three times as high, at around $5bn, which would translate to about 25% of North Korea’s GDP, estimated to be currently $20bn. > > Pyongyang’s order of battle is equivalent to approximately 150 active duty brigades. That includes 27 infantry divisions, as well as some 15 independent armoured brigades, 14 infantry brigades, and 21 artillery brigades. North Korean forces are heavily dug-in with more than 4,000 underground facilities and bunkers near the DMZ and an estimated 20 tunnels dug under the DMZ, of which four have been found. There are also more than 20 Special Forces brigades, totaling about 88,000 troops, which could be deployed by air, sea and land to disrupt US and South Korean combat operations and attack civilian targets. > > North Korea’s armoured forces are estimated to include some 3,500 main battle tanks (MBTs), 3,000 armoured personnel carriers and light tanks, and more than 10,000 heavy-calibre artillery pieces, many of which are self-propelled. The MBT force primarily comprises older T-54/55/59 models, but includes some 800 indigenously produced T-62s. Of the estimated 10,000 or so artillery pieces in the North Korean inventory, a considerable number are pre-deployed, in range of Seoul; additional artillery could be moved forward to fortified firing positions at short notice. Of particular concern to Seoul are Pyongyang’s 240mm multiple rocket launchers (capable of simultaneously firing 16–18 rockets), its 152mm and 170mm towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, and its mobile FROG systems – all of which are capable of delivering chemical and biological agents as well as conventional high-explosives. In addition, the ground forces have about 7,500 mortars, several hundred surface-to-surface missiles, 11,000 air defence guns, 10,000 surface-to-air missiles, and numerous anti-tank guided weapons. > > The North Korean air force possess some 605 combat aircraft and is organised into 33 regiments: 11 fighter/ ground attack; two bomber; seven helicopter; seven transport; and six training regiments. The air force mostly comprises older MiG aircraft (of the MiG-15/17/19/21 types), but includes small numbers of more modern MiG-23, MiG-29 and Su-25 aircraft. Like North Korea’s ground forces, a relatively large percentage of the air force is deployed near the DMZ – at military air bases only minutes flying time from Seoul. The North Korean navy can be divided into six main groups: 43 missile craft; about 100 torpedo craft; 158 patrol craft (of which 133 are inshore vessels); about 26 diesel submarines of Soviet design; 10 amphibious ships; and 23 mine countermeasures ships. There are also some 65 miniature submarines for the insertion and extraction of Special Forces. Around 60 percent of the North Korean navy is deployed in forward bases, and North Korea has strengthened its coastal defences in forward areas by deploying more modern anti-ship cruise missiles. > > On paper, North Korea’s armed forces are formidable, but their actual capabilities are less than the raw data suggest, given the obsolescence of most North Korean equipment. Around one-half of North Korea’s major weapons were designed in the 1960s; the other half are even older. Also, it is certain that due to shortages of spare parts, fuel, and poor maintenance, some weaponry will not be functional. The US Army’s Cold War system for comparing hardware capabilities suggests that ground combat units equipped with modern Western weaponry are about 20–40% more combat effective than units of comparable size with out-of-date equipment. After the 1991 Gulf War, the US-based Analytic Sciences Corporation developed a more up-to-date and realistic model for comparing forces, known as the Technique for Assessing Comparative Force Modernization (TASCFORM), which was utilised in the 1990s by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. According to this model, modern Western weaponry is generally two-to-four times more capable than Soviet systems. Just to note, South Korea’s domestic defense industry is extremely well developed; they aren’t so much armed by the West as they arm themselves nowadays. There is almost nothing in terms of major military hardware that they don’t make themselves. They make their own modern MBT, the [K1A1](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K1A1), the [K-9](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-9_howitzer) SP howitzer, [K200](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K200) IFV, the [Type 214](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_214_submarine) submarine, their own [destroyers](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chungmugong_Yi_Sunshin_class_destroyer), [Aegis missile destroyers](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Sejong_the_Great_class_destroyer), domestically produced 40% and assembled 25% of their [F-15Ks](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-15K#F-15K), and is currently developing an advanced domestic multirole fighter, the [KF-X](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KFX_(aircraft)). ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/27 "2013-03-20T22:15:18Z")
The size of a military isn’t really that important in the 21st century, in my amateur opinion. What matters is how well trained, how motivated and how technologically advanced the militaries are. The US had about 100-200k soldiers in the Iraq wars, Iraq had about 1.5 million. Yet we destroyed their conventional military forces within days in 1991 and did it in weeks in 2003. Granted there was a long lasting insurgency, but the official military was destroyed extremely fast despite Iraq having almost 10x more soldiers. South Korea is more technologically advanced. Plus if you want to talk about population, their population is 2x that of the North. Granted their active duty and reserve military is about 1/3 of the north, but they are better trained and have better equipment. The North wouldn’t win a war. The real risk of the North is them using WMD, them using artillery against civilian populations, their commando forces going overseas for terrorism/kidnappings and if the North is conquered, holdouts who are loyal to the Kim family creating a long lasting insurgency. But their official military wouldn’t last long. The Iraqi military had better technology and training than the North Koreans from what I know of them. And if Iraq fell so fast, so would NK. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/28 "2013-03-20T22:25:29Z")
We did a Great Debates thread on this back [in January](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=680177&highlight=korea+artillery). With crunchy cites and all! The Cavazos article on the North Korean artillery’s threat to Seoul is certainly worth a read. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/29 "2013-03-20T22:25:53Z")
> [@Lukeinva](#): > > Is this the reason they are so pissed off all the time? I.E. wtf is their problem, always threatening and trying to be bad ass, etc etc. My understanding is they do it because they want to be noticed. They are worried that the US and China will start thinking of them as just a province of China, and not as an independent nation who has to be addressed directly by the international community. North Korea has an economy half the size of El Salvador just as a comparison to their level of importance in global economic events. If not for their human rights abuses and their constant threats, they’d be totally ignored globally. Also they do it because that is about all they have as far as the ability to get things from the international community. They have no real economic model that lets them trade with neighbors. Their sponsor the USSR is gone. So they have to resort to blackmail by constantly threatening South Korea to get food aid, fuel aid, financial aid, etc. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/30 "2013-03-20T22:36:17Z")
Great AntiBob: > [@](#): > > North Korea hasn’t actually come close to launching an attack on the South at any point over the last 5 decades. They haven’t attacked the South Korean mainland, but they did attack some off-shore islands and they torpedoed a South Korean ship. In most countries, those would be considered casus belli. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/31 "2013-03-20T22:42:57Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > They haven’t attacked the South Korean mainland, but they did attack some off-shore islands and they torpedoed a South Korean ship. In most countries, those would be considered casus belli. Depends on the country, as is obviously the case here. They did torpedo the ship but denied all involvement. I’ll actually chalk that one up to incompetence (both in getting caught and in getting in the situation in the first place). As for the island, they at least had an excuse (a bad one) with the US and SK conducting military exercises nearby along with disputed territorial waters and all the usual nonsense. Similar border skirmishes happen all over the globe without being considered preludes to war. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/32 "2013-03-20T23:17:58Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Great AntiBob: > > They haven’t attacked the South Korean mainland, but they did attack some off-shore islands and they torpedoed a South Korean ship. In most countries, those would be considered casus belli. Does sending a commando tema in to try an assasinate the [South Korean president count?](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_House_Raid). ALthough it was 45 years ago so might not meet the last 5 decades time period I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2013, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/33 "2013-03-20T23:46:46Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > I still do not understand why we do not do a preemptive nuke strike on them. A country with nuclear weapons threatens you with them and you are just supposed to sit back and wait until they make good on the threat? North Korea borders China. What do you think _we’d_ do if somebody nuked a Canadian city? ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/34 "2013-03-21T00:01:16Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > They shelled an island and nothing happened except loud talk and UN resolutions. They sank a SK navy ship unprovoked. We did nothing. If they lob 500 shells into SK and then stop, what will we do? What if the shells only cause 100 or 200 deaths? 50 deaths? This is, in fact, completely false. When they shelled the island, South Korea fired back. > **[2010 Yeonpyeong bombardment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong)** > > The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong (Korean: 연평도 포격전) was an artillery engagement between the North Korean military and South Korean forces stationed on Yeonpyeong Island on 23 November 2010. Following a South Korean artillery exercise in disputed waters near the island, North Korean forces fired around 170 artillery shells and rockets at Yeonpyeong Island, hitting both military and civilian targets. > Shelling caused widespread damage on Yeonpyeong. South Korea retaliated by shelling North Korean gun... The North Koreans supposedly fired 108 shells, although the timeline says 170. The South Koreans responded by firing 80 shells, targetting North Korean barracks and command structures. The North Koreans of course, claimed they suffered no casualties. As far as the sinking of the ship, it did take quite a while to determine the exact cause of the sinking, and both China and Russia disagreed with the determination that the North Koreans were responsible. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/35 "2013-03-21T04:39:35Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > North Korea borders China. What do you think _we’d_ do if somebody nuked a Canadian city? In IR terms? Say “tsk” “tsk”. ---
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/36 "2013-03-21T12:38:49Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > North Korea borders China. What do you think _we’d_ do if somebody nuked a Canadian city? Depends, do I get to pick? ---
**Author:** ![chargerrich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chargerrich/32/5399_2.png) [@chargerrich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chargerrich)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/37 "2013-03-21T12:47:41Z")
What I think gets lost in this discussion is not the military might of either side - I think most will agree the South would be better equipped - but the strength of will between the two. I for one believe the PRK would possess much MUCH more fighting spirit and will to win than the ROK. For that reason and that reason alone, I believe the PRK would win any war with the ROK assuming no involvement from allies. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/38 "2013-03-21T13:40:15Z")
“Will”? “Will” is the last excuse of the incompetent. Sure, we don’t have the weapons, or the doctrine, or the leadership, or the training, or the logistical capabilities, but at least we have “will”! ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/39 "2013-03-21T13:51:59Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > “Will”? > > “Will” is the last excuse of the incompetent. Sure, we don’t have the weapons, or the doctrine, or the leadership, or the training, or the logistical capabilities, but at least we have “will”! Plus apparently the Southen solider has inferior will despite fighting for his home, his family, to avoid being sold into slavery and being ruled by a guy who looks like the 5th grader he used to tease. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2013, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459/40 "2013-03-21T14:03:51Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > I wonder how many MLRSes South Korea has? I would imagine at least a few batteries since each MLRS can cover so much area…it’s the perfect environment for them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/north-korean-military-strength/653459.md?page=3)