# Northwest Passage, At Last?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-at-last/311924>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [July 11, 2005, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-at-last/311924 "2005-07-11T02:44:59Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Fiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e274bd/32.png) [@Fiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiver)\
**Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-at-last/311924/1 "2005-07-11T02:44:59Z")

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I read recently that thanks to global warming, the northern ice cap may soon become seasonal, such that in the spring it will thaw completely and become open ocean until the next fall.

Assuming this is true, will this mean shipping will begin to use it, at least for part of the year?

Economically, it seems compelling. Some modern tankers and freighters are too large for the Panama Canal, so payloads bound from Europe to Asia often have to go all the way south around the tip of South America, then through most of the Pacific before reaching its destination (or the same thing in reverse for Asia-to-Europe traffic).

Look at any globe and you’ll see how big a difference the Northwest Passage would make, if it were possible.

In fact, it makes SUCH a huge difference that I’m a little surprised there aren’t already freighters with icebreaking hulls, making the trip that way despite the ice.

What say the Teeming Millions?

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**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\
**Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-at-last/311924/2 "2005-07-11T03:02:18Z")

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The arctic environment cannot handle oil spills the way that southern climes can. Any oil shipping will require far more rugged tankers than presently in use.

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**Author:** ![Danalan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/76d3ee/32.png) [@Danalan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Danalan)\
**Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-at-last/311924/3 "2005-07-11T03:11:38Z")

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According to [this source](http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/KW_IGARSS04_NWP.pdf), global warming might not be such a boon for shipping.

> [@](#):
>
> The GCM’s predicting an ice-free Arctic by the middle of  
> this century may lead many into a false sense of optimism  
> regarding the ease of future shipping in the Canadian Arctic.  
> Sea ice conditions are highly variable and there will still be  
> summers of occasional heavy ice conditions.

They also point out the probability of, and current trend toward, increased iceberg hazards and pack ice accumulations. Icebergs and pack ice congestion are far more hazardous and difficult than simple sea ice.

> [@](#):
>
> Winds and ocean currents can drive sea ice against  
> coastlines and into narrow channels, creating high-pressure  
> zones capable of crushing ships and creating barriers to  
> navigational pathways. Some of these “choke points” are  
> impassable, and ice breaker assistance is usually required. Even  
> in a generally ice free Arctic, lighter ice conditions would make  
> the regions even more susceptible to winds and ocean currents  
> creating locally hazardous congested areas.

I think the northwest passage is already in pretty regular use. Every summer icebreakers clear the way for shipping, following [this](http://www.athropolis.com/map9.htm) route.

I don’t think you’d want oil tankers traversing the arctic. They rely on satellite imagery to find warm currents to sail in. This keeps the oil more viscous, which makes it easier to unload.