# Northwest Passage question **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 19, 2019, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796 "2019-04-19T23:38:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2019, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/21 "2019-04-20T18:54:26Z")
Just an additional comment of interest, FTR. During the winter of 2018, Arctic sea ice extent varied at different times between the lowest and second lowest on record. This was followed by an unusually cool summer and lower than normal rates of summer ice melt, wrapping up the season with 6th lowest ice extent on record instead of what was on track to be the lowest amount of summer ice ever. The lower than normal rate of ice melt during that summer could well have produced unusual regional ice patterns, and this may account for the discrepancy between the ice problems that the Franklin investigators faced and the general trend of Arctic sea ice decline. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2019, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/22 "2019-04-20T19:02:53Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Hard to believe Stan would be 70! The late, much regretted Stan Rogers. Did you ever hear, “The Wreck of the Athens Queen”: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjuBMs1ftOE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjuBMs1ftOE)? I still break up every time I hear, “Fresh cream in my tea”. ---
**Author:** ![MikeS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MikeS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeS)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2019, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/23 "2019-04-20T19:26:06Z")
> [@Heracles](#): > > The book’s recently been made into a TV series on AMC, which I haven’t seen. I haven’t read the book, but I’m about 2/3 through the show on disc right now. It is quite excellent. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2019, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/24 "2019-04-20T20:00:48Z")
On the ice issue, i read one article (can’t find it now) that said that the area where Erebus was found was notorious for having bad ice coverage, because of the local currents. Speculation was that if they had taken a different route and stayed farther north of King William Island they might not have become ice-bound. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2019, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/25 "2019-04-20T21:14:14Z")
Further on the ice issue, there is evidence that Franklin picked a particularly bad time, climatically speaking, to try to navigate the Northwest Passage. Ice core samples taken for a 1985 study appear to indicate that, with global warming still in the distant future, [natural variations were producing a cooling phase in the Arctic at just that time](https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/culture/franklin/edu/science), so the cold and ice were exceptionally vicious in those years. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/26 "2019-04-21T05:26:07Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > The late, much regretted Stan Rogers. Did you ever hear, “The Wreck of the Athens Queen”: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjuBMs1ftOE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjuBMs1ftOE)? I still break up every time I hear, “Fresh cream in my tea”. For me it’s always been the “near two hundred chickens and the leather couch of green”! ---
**Author:** ![TSBG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/77aa72/32.png) [@TSBG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TSBG)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/27 "2019-04-21T06:27:04Z")
Maybe it’s just me, but does setting sail for the Arctic on two ships called _Erebus_ and _Terror_ not seem like tempting fate? ---
**Author:** ![eburacum45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eburacum45/32/8690_2.png) [@eburacum45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eburacum45)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/28 "2019-04-21T20:05:02Z")
The _Erebus_ and _Terror_ were both already successful exploration ships, in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Mount Erebus in Antarctica is named after the ship. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/29 "2019-04-21T21:30:58Z")
> [@eburacum45](#): > > The _Erebus_ and _Terror_ were both already successful exploration ships, in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Mount Erebus in Antarctica is named after the ship. Ditto for Mount Terror. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/30 "2019-04-21T22:54:51Z")
> [@Heracles](#): > > I read Dan Simmons’ [The Terror](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3974.The_Terror) a few months ago, and liked it. It’s romanticised and includes supernatural elements, but it’s also a very good (imo) third-person-subjective depiction of life aboard such ships for a 21st-century audience, and it does try to match the few known facts about the expedition’s fate (though it was written before the wrecks were located). The book’s recently been made into a TV series on AMC, which I haven’t seen. Why did they do it? It’s the old because it’s there. Or in this case, might be. I’ve also read The Terror. It is speculated, and not hard to believe that the rations of food where a big problem. Canning, in tins, where sealed with lead back when it first started. And, did not always seal well. So, we are talking a choice between lead poisoning and/or botulism, or starving to death. Must have been horrific. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/31 "2019-04-21T23:18:40Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Canning, in tins, where sealed with lead back when it first started. And, did not always seal well. So, we are talking a choice between lead poisoning and/or botulism, or starving to death. Must have been horrific. As I noted in [post #4](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21599904&postcount=4), autopsies did reveal evidence of severe lead poisoning in some of the sailors. It must indeed have been horrific, considering the evidence we have now of the extreme cold in the Arctic at that particular time, being endured by men suffering the pains and potential mental disorders of lead poisoning, including paranoia and hallucinations. One thing I love about the Dope is how discussions like this sometimes clue me in to books or films I didn’t know about. I had not heard of _The Terror_ before, either as a book or the subsequent TV series. Looking forward to reading it. Given the surreal and morbidly fascinating circumstances, if I had written a story like that I would have left it ambiguous whether the supernatural creatures threatening the men were real or hallucinations induced by lead poisoning. ---
**Author:** ![mako88sb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@mako88sb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mako88sb)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/32 "2019-04-22T14:54:44Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > **ECG** ’s comment was about the increasing viability of the NW Passage as a shipping route due to average annual declines in Arctic sea ice. Your response to that appeared to indicate that you disagree, but as I just showed you, that is exactly what’s happening. Whatever ice issues they’re talking about in that article related to accessing the Franklin wrecks, assuming it’s factually correct, were obviously _ **extremely** _ localized and not representative of the region overall, and therefore not representative either of the general region nor of the general trend in the opening up of the NW Passage. As a matter of fact, in August and September of 2018, when the article claims they were encountering ice conditions that were “the worst seen in 20 years”, Arctic sea ice extent [was the 6th lowest in the 40-year satellite record](https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-extent-6th-lowest-september). My first response was simply corroborating what engineer\_comp\_geek posted when he said “While ice often blocks the routes completely,” and that it was affecting the search for Franklin Expedition artifacts. My second post was simply a link as proof it was not some figment of my imagination when you stated my subject in my first post was implausible. As for your “assuming it’s factually correct” comment about the link I provided, I had a look at NWP transits the last few years and there were quite a number of ships that have done it each year but in 2018, there were only 2 from Germany that are shown as 36.6 m and 16.6 m Ketch’s. Pretty substantial drop compared to 2017 which saw 32 vessels transit the NWP. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/33 "2019-04-22T16:29:23Z")
> [@mako88sb](#): > > My first response was simply corroborating what engineer\_comp\_geek posted when he said “While ice often blocks the routes completely,” and that it was affecting the search for Franklin Expedition artifacts. My second post was simply a link as proof it was not some figment of my imagination when you stated my subject in my first post was implausible. As for your “assuming it’s factually correct” comment about the link I provided, I had a look at NWP transits the last few years and there were quite a number of ships that have done it each year but in 2018, there were only 2 from Germany that are shown as 36.6 m and 16.6 m Ketch’s. Pretty substantial drop compared to 2017 which saw 32 vessels transit the NWP. Not sure why you’re still going on about this or what you’re trying to prove. The year-over-year average of Arctic sea ice extent is in rapid decline, period. That’s a fact. That’s also one of the major reasons that the Arctic is warming about four times faster than the global average. We occasionally get climate change deniers on this board who try to “prove” kooky things like that Arctic ice cover is not in decline, and your comments seemed to be hinting at that. If not, my apologies, but then I don’t know what your point was, especially the latest one about fewer ships transiting the NW Passage in 2018. That isn’t a scientific measure of sea ice extent. Satellite observations are. Again, the facts as previously cited are that the winter of 2018 saw, at different times, the lowest and the second-lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record. But due to a cool summer, it ended the season with the sixth-lowest ice extent in the satellite record instead of what was surely on track to be the lowest ever. The record low winter ice followed by unusually low summer ice melt may have produced anomalous ice patterns in August and September of 2018 when further explorations of the Franklin wrecks was being attempted. There is often still enough ice blocking the NW Passage in most summers that the transit remains a challenge. But the long-term trend line continues to show rapid year-over-year ice loss on average, and the Arctic continues to warm at an accelerated pace. Trying to argue otherwise is just silly. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/34 "2019-04-22T16:55:06Z")
> [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](#): > > I would argue, in that case, that the novel actually _does_ answer the OP’s question, and that by the mid-Nineteenth Century there was little to no hope of a commercially viable Northwest Passage. Captain Cook had covered the entire west coast of North America in the late 1700’s, proving that no passage emptied directly into the Pacific. The “passage” could only connect one part of the Arctic to another part of the Arctic, at extremely high latitudes. Any passage could only be open a few weeks out of the year, and then only under very variable and dangerous conditions. Granted, the trip around Cape Horn was no bargain, but by the 1840’s, the “Northwest Passage” was already pretty much guaranteed to be worse. Yeah they mostly knew this. But there had been a hypothesis of a ice free arctic, and of course exploring and Furthest North just for the sake of doing it. If they had found a NW passage, even if it was barely navigable and had no practical use, it still would have been a “discovery”. ---
**Author:** ![mako88sb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@mako88sb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mako88sb)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/35 "2019-04-22T17:21:02Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Not sure why you’re still going on about this or what you’re trying to prove. The year-over-year average of Arctic sea ice extent is in rapid decline, period. That’s a fact. That’s also one of the major reasons that the Arctic is warming about four times faster than the global average. We occasionally get climate change deniers on this board who try to “prove” kooky things like that Arctic ice cover is not in decline, and your comments seemed to be hinting at that. If not, my apologies, but then I don’t know what your point was, especially the latest one about fewer ships transiting the NW Passage in 2018. That isn’t a scientific measure of sea ice extent. Satellite observations are. > > Again, the facts as previously cited are that the winter of 2018 saw, at different times, the lowest and the second-lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record. But due to a cool summer, it ended the season with the sixth-lowest ice extent in the satellite record instead of what was surely on track to be the lowest ever. The record low winter ice followed by unusually low summer ice melt may have produced anomalous ice patterns in August and September of 2018 when further explorations of the Franklin wrecks was being attempted. > > There is often still enough ice blocking the NW Passage in most summers that the transit remains a challenge. But the long-term trend line continues to show rapid year-over-year ice loss on average, and the Arctic continues to warm at an accelerated pace. Trying to argue otherwise is just silly. I just found it a bit ridiculous that you are calling into question the factual statements made by a link I provided that stated the ice conditions in the areas of the two wrecks is limiting/preventing artifact retrieval when the info is being provided by the Canadian government, who is constantly beating us over the head about the need for the carbon tax. That area in question is also limiting NWP transits which again corroborates what engineer\_comp\_geek said with his “While ice often blocks the routes completely,”. At no time did I ever hint that the ice conditions in those areas is somehow proof that the Arctic ice isn’t melting faster then it can be made up during the winter. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/36 "2019-04-22T17:42:55Z")
> [@mako88sb](#): > > … the Canadian government, who is constantly beating us over the head about the need for the carbon tax. The real and hitherto elusive point finally becomes clear. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![mako88sb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@mako88sb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mako88sb)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/37 "2019-04-22T17:53:23Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > The real and hitherto elusive point finally becomes clear. :rolleyes: Yeah, I have a problem paying more taxes to a government run by some clown who stated that the “budget would balance itself”. So what? How does that have anything to do with the fact that at no time did I ever hint that the ice conditions in those areas is somehow proof that the Arctic ice isn’t melting faster then it can be made up during the winter. My initial post was about the ice conditions in the areas of the two wrecks limiting/preventing artifact retrieval but somehow you interpreted that as me being a climate change denier. ---
**Author:** ![gregorio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/fbc32d/32.png) [@gregorio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gregorio)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/38 "2019-04-22T18:49:24Z")
Yeah, I liked **Erebus** by Michael Palin. Yes, that Michael Palin. Very readable and goes into detail about the various crews and individuals around during that ship’s voyages. > **[Erebus: One Ship, Two Epic Voyages, and the Greatest Naval Mystery of All Time:...](https://www.amazon.ca/Erebus-Voyages-Greatest-Naval-Mystery/dp/0735274274)** > > Erebus: One Ship, Two Epic Voyages, and the Greatest Naval Mystery of All Time: Palin, Michael: 9780735274273: Books - Amazon.ca ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/39 "2019-04-22T19:13:26Z")
> [@mako88sb](#): > > Yeah, I have a problem paying more taxes to a government run by some clown who stated that the “budget would balance itself”. So what? How does that have anything to do with the fact that at no time did I ever hint that the ice conditions in those areas is somehow proof that the Arctic ice isn’t melting faster then it can be made up during the winter. My initial post was about the ice conditions in the areas of the two wrecks limiting/preventing artifact retrieval but somehow you interpreted that as me being a climate change denier. I’m just trying to keep the discussion factual, mate, since this is GQ. The matter of ice around the Franklin wrecks was resolved early in this discussion. I initially said I found it implausible that the ice levels were “the highest in 20 years”. You provided a cite to that claim, so I was happy to concede that they may have been, but just in a very localized area, since ice levels are clearly dropping on long-term averages. I even offered a possible explanation for it, hypothesizing why ice patterns may have been unusual in the late summer of 2018, despite being at near-record lows all year in the Arctic overall. And that should have been the end of it. Instead you’ve been going on and on and on about ice in the NW Passage and how few ships sailed through in 2018 etc. etc. And now we know why. But this is not a political forum, nor is it a debate forum. ---
**Author:** ![Heracles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heracles/32/487_2.png) [@Heracles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heracles)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2019, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796/40 "2019-08-28T13:40:54Z")
For those interested, Parks Canada has just released [the first images](https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/lhn-nhs/nu/epaveswrecks/culture/archeologie-archeology/explore/2019/ete-summer-2019) of the interior of HMS Terror. ([CTV article](https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/a-solemn-space-first-interior-shots-of-franklin-s-hms-terror-released-1.4568127).) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/northwest-passage-question/832796.md?page=3)