# Not one new job since 2007 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 8, 2017, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915 "2017-12-08T16:03:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/21 "2017-12-08T20:05:37Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I don’t see Stockman’s figures anywhere in that, or in the Bureau of Labor Statistics site either. My personal points are still valid I think, but I can’t defend the figures Stockman cited. > > ETA: I used the 10Y option which was sufficient for this topic. Well, good like trying to extract that data from the BLS site. Maybe I just don’t know what I’m doing there, but I got frustrated and gave up. That link claims their source is the BLS, and I think the data is good. But if anyone has better data, I’m glad to look at it. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/22 "2017-12-08T20:31:26Z")
FRED is generally the best source for user-friendly US economic data. This [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000http://)for full-time employed shows the US matched the 2007 peak in 2015 and is now 5 million higher than that. So basically a gigantic downturn in 2008-9 and a steady but not spectacular recovery since then. I have no idea which number Stockman is talking about. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/23 "2017-12-08T20:34:34Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > FRED is generally the best source for user-friendly US economic data. This [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000http://)for full-time employed shows the US matched the 2007 peak in 2015 and is now 5 million higher than that. So basically a gigantic downturn in 2008-9 and a steady but not spectacular recovery since then. > > I have no idea which number Stockman is talking about. That’s the exact same curve I linked to. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/24 "2017-12-08T20:52:39Z")
OK. I clicked on the Trading Economics link but not the Max option which does indeed have the same chart. FRED has a whole bunch of other useful features though, like the ability to check the actual numbers for each month. The link in my previous post doesn’t seem to be working so [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000)is the correct one. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/25 "2017-12-08T21:01:31Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > OK. I clicked on the Trading Economics link but not the Max option which does indeed have the same chart. FRED has a whole bunch of other useful features though, like the ability to check the actual numbers for each month. The link in my previous post doesn’t seem to be working so [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000)is the correct one. I wasn’t disparaging FRED. Looks like a good site. I was just noting that we’re showing the same data in this particular case. Obviously it would be better if there were more full time jobs, but looking at that graph puts things in perspective. We got hit hard by the Great Recession, and it took about 8 years to recover (2015, not 2017). Now, shall we talk about wages? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Caldazar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Caldazar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Caldazar)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/26 "2017-12-08T21:13:27Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > FRED is generally the best source for user-friendly US economic data. This [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000http://)for full-time employed shows the US matched the 2007 peak in 2015 and is now 5 million higher than that. So basically a gigantic downturn in 2008-9 and a steady but not spectacular recovery since then. > > I have no idea which number Stockman is talking about. The apparent conflict is coming from the the fact that BLS conducts different surveys when measuring employment. Full-time workers and full-time jobs are two different things. A full-time worker is a household survey classification, and is someone who works 35 hours a week or more regardless of the number or types of jobs that the person holds; this is the 127 million Full-Time-Workers statistic. For workers with multiple jobs, the CPS survey question is “Do you usually work 35 hours or more per week at all your jobs combined?”. There are currently about 3 million workers who hold multiple jobs that were either all part time or had variable weekly hours. A full time job is an establishment survey classification, as is mostly whatever the heck an employer defines as full time. Usually, the distinguishing characteristic is that full time employees get benefits. For ACA purposes specifically, a full time employee is anyone who works 30 hours or more at a job. Again, unsure if a “number of full time jobs” statistics is published, or if it needs to be summarized from the raw data; I suspect the latter. The BLS intermittently conducts a survey (CWS) that is designed to better highlight the full-time vs. part-time characteristics of employment; I don’t know if they’ve done one lately. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/27 "2017-12-08T21:22:51Z")
OK. Thanks for the information. Incidentally about [wages](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q), they have actually been doing well for the last three years, their best performance since the late 90’s. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/28 "2017-12-08T21:23:09Z")
> [@Caldazar](#): > > The apparent conflict is coming from the the fact that BLS conducts different surveys when measuring employment. Full-time workers and full-time jobs are two different things. > > A full-time worker is a household survey classification, and is someone who works 35 hours a week or more regardless of the number or types of jobs that the person holds; this is the 127 million Full-Time-Workers statistic. For workers with multiple jobs, the CPS survey question is “Do you usually work 35 hours or more per week at all your jobs combined?”. There are currently about 3 million workers who hold multiple jobs that were either all part time or had variable weekly hours. > > A full time job is an establishment survey classification, as is mostly whatever the heck an employer defines as full time. Usually, the distinguishing characteristic is that full time employees get benefits. For ACA purposes specifically, a full time employee is anyone who works 30 hours or more at a job. > > Again, unsure if a “number of full time jobs” statistics is published, or if it needs to be summarized from the raw data; I suspect the latter. The BLS intermittently conducts a survey (CWS) that is designed to better highlight the full-time vs. part-time characteristics of employment; I don’t know if they’ve done one lately. Thanks. That was very helpful! ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/29 "2017-12-08T21:36:52Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Where are these figures from? I indicated from the beginning these were Stockman’s numbers, is he incorrect? 127 million full time workers. > **[Full-time employees U.S. 2024 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/)** > > As of April 2024, there were 133.35 million full-time employees in the United States. U5 of 5%, U6 of 8%. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm) The difference between the U5 and U6 is that both count the unemployed, those marginally attached to the labor force and discouraged workers. But the U6 also includes people who are working part time but want full time work. The difference between the U5 (5.0%) and U6 (8.0%) is 3%. So right now 3% of the labor force is people working part time who want full time work. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/30 "2017-12-08T21:52:31Z")
[Here is the interview with David Stockman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qh9qs1GniQ). > [@David Stockman](#): > > In this report, there were 72.7M breadwinner, full-time jobs reported last month. Do you know that’s the same number as December 2007 and the same number as January 2000? In other words, in 17 years we have not gained a single full-time breadwinner job in construction, manufacturing, the higher white-collar professions and so forth in an entire century. All of the jobs have been either part-time- we’ve created 16 million jobs since Clinton was in the White House- all of them have been either part-time or in health and education, which depends on governments, which are insolvent everywhere in the United States. So this is not a sign of health, this is a sign of obliviousness on Wall Street and in Washington to how serious our economic challenges are. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/31 "2017-12-08T21:55:16Z")
Does the term ‘breadwinner’ have special meaning? Meaning, when he says there are ‘72.7M breadwinner, full-time jobs’ does he mean some kind of economic cutoff of maybe $40,000 per year income? I’m sure there are lots of full time jobs that pay less than $20/hr (which is about 40k a year). Or does he mean that jobs are growing in the public sector and he only counts private sector job? Or is Stockman just wrong? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/32 "2017-12-08T21:56:17Z")
What’s the difference between a “full time job” and a “breadwinner, full time job”? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/33 "2017-12-08T21:58:12Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > What’s the difference between a “full time job” and a “breadwinner, full time job”? I don’t know. I’m wondering if Stockman associates special meaning to ‘breadwinner’ full time jobs to distinguish them from non-breadwinner jobs. My first job out of college paid $16/hr. It was full time but it had no benefits. Even though I was working full time, maybe because my job didn’t pay 20+/hr and didn’t include benefits, it didn’t count as a ‘breadwinner full time job’. That is just a guess though as to what it means. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/34 "2017-12-08T22:02:45Z")
Given that there are 127M workers working “full time” and only 72M “breadwinner” jobs, I’d say I’m not listening to a thing he says until he defines his terms better. Especially since he seems to be mocking people who manipulate statistics. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/35 "2017-12-08T22:08:37Z")
**Caldazar** says that only 3 percent of people say they work more than one job to have full time hours, too. 3% of 127M is not 55M tho so something doesn’t seem right there as well. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/36 "2017-12-08T22:16:56Z")
Maybe his latest book (_Trumped!_, from last year) isn’t selling well enough and he wants to get his name out there. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/37 "2017-12-08T22:19:58Z")
Re–people don’t move to where the jobs are. Often, there simply is **no affordable housing** where the jobs are. Urban housing costs have gone crazy. And savings are often zero dollars. Likely, they have no resources to move. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2017, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/38 "2017-12-08T22:46:50Z")
Full employment is a misleading statistic – unless a Republican is in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2017, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/39 "2017-12-09T00:21:42Z")
I have no idea what Stockman meant, I don’t see his numbers anywhere. More fake news I guess. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2017, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915/40 "2017-12-09T00:25:56Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I have no idea what Stockman meant, I don’t see his numbers anywhere. More fake news I guess. He should be toast after that interview. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-one-new-job-since-2007/803915.md?page=3)