# Not playing your high dollar first round draft pick QB **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 4, 2015, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631 "2015-11-04T17:44:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![xizor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xizor/32/102_2.png) [@xizor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xizor)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/1 "2015-11-04T17:44:08Z")
Through the years, many NFL teams pay big money to draft a hot shot QB in the first round hoping to build an offense around him. Then one of two things happens: He is the starter as a rookie and becomes a star (Cam Newton) or bombs (Tim Tebow). I know plenty become average players, but that I guess would be a bust if they were predicted to go on to greatness based on college performance. But then there are some teams who draft their star, pay millions, and… bench him for 3-4 years. I can think of several examples where this has happened (Matt Leinert, Jake Locker) and the QB never becomes more than a mediocre player. Yet teams continue to do it (Johnny Manziel). I have spent time poking around this morning but could not find any examples of 1. A highly touted college QB, Heisman candidate type, drafted in the first round 2. Who sat the bench for his first 3-4 years as a pro 3. Who THEN got his chance to start and became an all-star Does this strategy ever work? Why do teams do this? Seems like a waste of money. ---
**Author:** ![Bonaventure](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c57346/32.png) [@Bonaventure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bonaventure)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/2 "2015-11-04T17:48:57Z")
Aaron Rodgers? He was a late first rounder but still first round. Teams are worried about ruining QBs by letting them get massacred in the backfield. Of course, it’s impossible to say whether any of these “ruined” QBs with happy feet could have been contenders with a more gentle acclimation to the NFL. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/3 "2015-11-04T17:51:03Z")
Aaron Rodgers. I don’t know if he was a “Heisman-type candidate”, but he was highly-touted at Cal and a first round pick. Then he sat behind Favre and eventually became a star in his own right. The logic is that NFL offenses are complex, and it pays off to take time to learn the offense before you’re put in charge of it. Also, you get some mentorship from the aging, in-place QB, though in practice, I understand Favre was horrible at this. ETA: Bah, Bonaventure. Bah. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/4 "2015-11-04T17:59:48Z")
Rivers sat behind Brees for his first two years in San Diego, and he’s now in his 10th season as the starter. He’s been to the Pro Bowl 5 times IIRC. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/5 "2015-11-04T18:09:35Z")
Carson Palmer was the first QB drafted and didn’t play at all his rookie year. He’s turned out OK. ---
**Author:** ![xizor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xizor/32/102_2.png) [@xizor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xizor)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/6 "2015-11-04T18:11:52Z")
Rivers is close, he was good in college, but I don’t remember him being considered a football stud the way Tim Tebow or Johnny Manziel or Cam Newton were. I think Eli Manning was the hot QB in that draft. I’ll have to google Aaron Rogers, but I don’t recall him being a big draft day name either. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/7 "2015-11-04T18:15:38Z")
Rivers was taken #4 overall in the 2004 draft. Eli was #1, Roethlisberger #11. ---
**Author:** ![ReticulatingSplines](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e274bd/32.png) [@ReticulatingSplines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ReticulatingSplines)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/8 "2015-11-04T18:21:31Z")
Jim Harbaugh. Finished 3rd in Heisman Trophy voting, was drafted in the first round, rode the bench for his first three years, and made the Pro Bowl in 1995. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/9 "2015-11-04T18:22:28Z")
> [@xizor](#): > > I’ll have to google Aaron Rogers, but I don’t recall him being a big draft day name either. He definitely was - the pre-draft predictions had it between him and Alex Smith going as the first pick, and many thought the 49ers would go with the local guy from Cal. When Smith went first, it was assumed Rodgers would be in the next few. His drop to 24 on draft day was big news. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Rodgers#Draft): > [@](#): > > Rodgers was widely projected to be drafted by the San Francisco 49ers, his childhood team, making him the number one overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. The 49ers drafted Alex Smith out of Utah instead and Rodgers slid all the way down to the 24th overall pick by the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers’ slip to the 24th selection and the Packers choosing to pick Brett Favre’s future replacement became one of the biggest stories of the draft, though he was still the second quarterback selected. His drop in the draft was later ranked number one on the NFL Network’s Top 10 Draft Day Moments. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/10 "2015-11-04T19:18:41Z")
A generation ago, the conventional wisdom was that you didn’t throw a QB into the fire in his first year or two, unless you didn’t have a choice. Archie Manning and Jim Plunkett were given as cautionary examples of what could happen to a rookie QB who was forced to start too soon (especially because such QBs were often drafted by lousy teams, and they had no supporting cast) – they’d get beat up, and struggle as they tried to master quarterbacking at the NFL level. That strategy is pretty much non-existent now. If a team drafts a QB in the first round (especially high in the first round), the expectation is that he’ll start right away (or, at least, very soon). I suspect that it’s driven, at least in part, by just how much money is tied up in high-first-round draft choices (though, not as much as there was a few years ago, before the new rules on rookie contracts). Rodgers is an exception for a couple of reasons: - The Packers drafted him in part because Favre had already started to go through his annual “will he or won’t he retire?” waffling, and they recognized that they might need a new starting QB at any time. However, Favre remained with the Packers for 3 more seasons (and wanted to stay even longer). - Rodgers was, by pre-draft ratings, a top-tier talent (see TroutMan’s post), who somehow tumbled all the way to the 24th pick. - Favre was one of the most durable players in NFL history; it’s pretty rare for a starting QB to not miss a start over the course of 3 seasons. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/11 "2015-11-04T19:27:53Z")
Too late for edit window: Another factor which led to the conventional wisdom against starting rookie QBs in the past was that, before the 1970s / 1980s, most QBs were expected to call their own plays. ---
**Author:** ![xizor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xizor/32/102_2.png) [@xizor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xizor)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/12 "2015-11-04T19:48:18Z")
Rodgers doesn’t quite fit the mold since he would have definitely played if Farve would have retired like a normal person. I don’t think that was a coaching decision to bench him for that long. Harbaugh definitely fits the description, since he backed up McMahon and then Tomczak before becoming a starter. Carson Palmer does not since he was a starter in his second season, although it is odd he had zero playing time as a rookie. I will also count Rivers, since it sounds like he would have sat even longer than the 2 years he did ride pine if Brees had not been injured and then let go. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/13 "2015-11-04T20:58:54Z")
> [@xizor](#): > > Rodgers doesn’t quite fit the mold since he would have definitely played if Farve would have retired like a normal person. I don’t think that was a coaching decision to bench him for that long. I think Kenobi’s post is a little more accurate here: the Packers didn’t know _what_ Favre was going to do, so Rodgers was somewhat insurance here. But I don’t think they exactly expected Favre to up and retire - he was only mid-30s, so it was reasonable for them to expect another season or two from Favre while Rodgers learned their system. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/14 "2015-11-04T21:31:59Z")
> [@ReticulatingSplines](#): > > Jim Harbaugh. Finished 3rd in Heisman Trophy voting, was drafted in the first round, rode the bench for his first three years, and made the Pro Bowl in 1995. Though, to note, [Harbaugh](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarbJi00.htm) had that great year, in which he made the Pro Bowl (1995), with his second team, and in his sixth year as a starter. He’d left the Bears after the '93 season (having been their starter for four seasons), apparently as a free agent; it’s not clear to me if the Bears tried to keep him at that point. For most of his career, he was a solid starting QB, but I don’t know that I would classify him as a star (though he does technically meet the OP’s description, having made that one Pro Bowl). ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/15 "2015-11-05T00:17:41Z")
> [@xizor](#): > > But then there are some teams who draft their star, pay millions, and… bench him for 3-4 years. I can think of several examples where this has happened (Matt Leinert, Jake Locker) and the QB never becomes more than a mediocre player. Yet teams continue to do it (Johnny Manziel). You’re not going to get satisfactory responses because your premise is way off. 3-4 years is certainly an insane amount of time, but what you’ve cited as examples of the phenomenon are definitely not. Leinart started 11 games his rookie year, 5 the next. Locker started 11 games his second year, then 7 the next, 5 the next. There are definitely plenty of examples that fit that mold. ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_s\_Son](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e19adc/32.png) [@Jim\_s\_Son](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_s_Son)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/16 "2015-11-05T04:40:49Z")
Not first round but Ken Stabler was a 2nd round draft choice (52nd overall) by Oakland in 1968. He played his college ball at Alabama, became the starter for an undefeated team as a junior but the team struggled his senior year 8-2-1. He didn’t play in the NFL until 1970 and only sparingly until 1973 but Oakland had a relatively young Darryl Lamonica and the ageless George Blanda. He became a star although he hasn’t made the Hall of Fame yet ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_s\_Son](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e19adc/32.png) [@Jim\_s\_Son](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_s_Son)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/not-playing-your-high-dollar-first-round-draft-pick-qb/736631/17 "2015-11-05T04:56:18Z")
There is also the case of Steve Young. Finished second in the Heisman in 1983. Went to USFL and started 22 games in 2 years. USFL folded and there was a special draft of USFL and CFL players. Young was the first pick. Three of the first four picks are Hall of Famers and seven more made a Pro Bowl. Young started 19 games over two years for Tampa and was terrible. They traded him to San Francisco where he mostly sat on the bench, starting 10 games in four. Eventually an injury to Joe Montana gave Young a chance to play and ultimately when Montana returned, San Francisco kept Young and Montana went to Kansas City.