# Nov '04 Election Comments Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 2, 2004, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563 "2004-11-02T16:04:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Orbifold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/779978/32.png) [@Orbifold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Orbifold)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/181 "2004-11-03T02:14:26Z")
So, what the Ohio equivalents of Miami-Dade and Palm Beach? I’m guessing that the counties that border lake Erie are very populated ones, but what others? What counties are the ones to watch? ---
**Author:** ![Metacom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@Metacom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Metacom)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/182 "2004-11-03T02:15:14Z")
> [@lno](#): > > Gotta clear up space in the cabinet in case **Bricker** loses and I get a nice Islay malt in exchange. Yum. I adore Laphroig, and I have a bottle of Ardbeg 17 I drink on life-changing occaisons. ObVaguelyOntopic: Any other Dems kinda hoping that Bush will win, just because it’ll make the next four years fascinating? ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/183 "2004-11-03T02:15:29Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Bush is now leading by 3% in Ohio. Up 7 points in Florida, but the two large, democratic leaning districts have yet to weigh in. > > Looks like it’s going to be a squeaker. Which Florida counties are considered in? How about Hillsborough (Tampa), Pinellas (Clearwater/St. Pete), Orange (Orlando), Dade (Miami), Broward (Ft. Lauderdale), Palm Beach? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/184 "2004-11-03T02:16:09Z")
> [@Metacom](#): > > ObVaguelyOntopic: Any other Dems kinda hoping that Bush will win, just because it’ll make the next four years fascinating? In the same way that a 25-car “CHiPs” style pileup is fascinating… ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/185 "2004-11-03T02:17:00Z")
Here’s [CNN’s Ohio Country Map](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/) showing where all the support is so far. Right now, with 8% of precincts reporting, Bush is up 6%. Bush up 7% in FL with 53% of precincts reporting. He’s getting clobbered so far in PA, though. With 7% in, he’s losing 35/65. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/186 "2004-11-03T02:17:08Z")
> [@Patty O'Furniture](#): > > New Hampshire will be the first. Not including the one Maine vote, if that’s ultimately confirmed. ---
**Author:** ![lno](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a8b319/32.png) [@lno](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lno)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/187 "2004-11-03T02:18:56Z")
The 15-year Laphroaig disappeared months ago, and 17-Ardbeg is long gone. If I win, I may try to convince **B** to get a 30-Laphroaig for me – or at least, the cash equivalent of a 10/15-Laphroaig and I’ll make up the difference. I have a small window of opportunity in which to drink a single malt that’s older than I am. Blank that blanking blank. Exit polling in MN says Kerry 54-45. Blanking blanking blank. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/188 "2004-11-03T02:19:53Z")
> [@Orbifold](#): > > So, what the Ohio equivalents of Miami-Dade and Palm Beach? I’m guessing that the counties that border lake Erie are very populated ones, but what others? What counties are the ones to watch? As best as I recall, Cuyahoga = Cleveland, Franklin = Columbus, Montgomery = Dayton. Some other areas possibly in play: Canton, Toledo, more urban areas along the I-75 corridor, Hamilton to a lesser extent. Also areas around universities might help Kerry. I’d expect the rural parts to be solidly behind Bush. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/189 "2004-11-03T02:20:36Z")
In the Senate race that’s most relevant to me, Specter’s getting pummelled by the challenger. Which is kind of sad to me. I firmly believe in supporting the few endangered moderate Republicans left, and I voted for Arlen this morning. My single Republican vote. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/190 "2004-11-03T02:22:18Z")
I don’t see any differences in the maps, but MSNBC, CNN, & C-SPAN have different electoral votes for Bush (156, 155 & 153 respectively) 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Orbifold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/779978/32.png) [@Orbifold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Orbifold)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/191 "2004-11-03T02:24:30Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Which Florida counties are considered in? How about Hillsborough (Tampa), Pinellas (Clearwater/St. Pete), Orange (Orlando), Dade (Miami), Broward (Ft. Lauderdale), Palm Beach? Broward and Palm Beach have already started to weigh in for Kerry, according to CNN. Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas are leaning slightly to Bush. Gotta say, it does look like Kerry has a hard row to hoe in Florida. He’ll probably get another 200,000 votes out of Palm Beach, and there’s still Miami-Dade, but Bush still has a lot of votes to claim too. Kerry’s chances are better in Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/192 "2004-11-03T02:24:44Z")
How’s Badnarik doing? No one I’ve seen is reporting any 3rd party guys except Nader. ---
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/193 "2004-11-03T02:25:37Z")
Hmm. A quick tour of the CNN web site shows that in every close state, Kerry is doing better in the exit polling than he is in tallied vote counts. I realize that in most of these states, there aren’t enough votes in for anything to be conclusive. But every single one? Is this meaningful? If it’s still that way with more of the vote in, _then_ will it be meaningful? -P ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/194 "2004-11-03T02:26:14Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > In the Senate race that’s most relevant to me, Specter’s getting pummelled by the challenger. Which is kind of sad to me. I firmly believe in supporting the few endangered moderate Republicans left, and I voted for Arlen this morning. > > My single Republican vote. I warned my parents (who live in PA) about this very thing, but no, they insisted Specter was safe regardless of how they voted. Alas. ---
**Author:** ![caphis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e19adc/32.png) [@caphis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/caphis)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/195 "2004-11-03T02:27:03Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > How’s Badnarik doing? No one I’ve seen is reporting any 3rd party guys except Nader. I don’t know. What would be good for Badnarik? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/196 "2004-11-03T02:27:12Z")
In Kentucky, Bunning and Mongiardo are literally neck and neck. It’s a 50/50 split with 91% reporting. ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/197 "2004-11-03T02:27:25Z")
It’s looking very good for Bush in Florida. By my tally, if he takes Florida, and picks up the one EV he’s expected to get in Maine, that gives him 249 EVs, without the fifth Nebraska EV that’s still in play. If I’m right, Kerry must win Ohio, because its 20 EVs would give Bush 269 EVs, guaranteeing him at least a tie. As the House of Reps is held by the Republicans, that would mean a Bush win. If Kerry wins Ohio, then Bush must pick up 20 votes out of MN, IA, NV, NM NH and WI, which have 41 overall (42 with the extra vote from NE). (I’m assuming Kerry takes MI and PA.) ---
**Author:** ![Orbifold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/779978/32.png) [@Orbifold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Orbifold)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/198 "2004-11-03T02:28:03Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > As best as I recall, Cuyahoga = Cleveland, Franklin = Columbus, Montgomery = Dayton. Respectively: leaning very slightly to Kerry, leaning to Bush, and no results posted. Heaven only knows at this point. ---
**Author:** ![5que](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/3bc359/32.png) [@5que](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5que)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/199 "2004-11-03T02:28:35Z")
> [@Parthol](#): > > A quick tour of the CNN web site shows that in every close state, Kerry is doing better in the exit polling than he is in tallied vote counts. Either MSNBC or CBS reported this is what the Bush war room had noticed. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/200 "2004-11-03T02:29:15Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > How’s Badnarik doing? No one I’ve seen is reporting any 3rd party guys except Nader. In the CNN site, for Florida, Nader shows 1% (at 19,000) and Badnarik less than 0.5%, about 7,000. Of course, since Florida is in serious play you’d expect a much lower “3rd party” vote here. Right now I’d say the alternatives have had minimal to no impact on the Florida race. Might turn out different at the end of the day, though. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563.md?page=11)