# Nov '04 Election Comments Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [November 2, 2004, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563 "2004-11-02T16:04:59Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 23

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**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/441 "2004-11-03T04:53:02Z")

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Bush’s Ohio lead is widening. 150,000 votes. Cuyahoga **still** half out, though. That could cut the lead to 50,000. Hmm… Time to take a another look at some other counties.

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**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/442 "2004-11-03T04:53:50Z")

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OH - 150,000 difference 70% reporting

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**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/443 "2004-11-03T04:54:41Z")

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> [@clairobscur](#):
>
> What? With all the brain power put together in this thread, you can’t tell me who’s going to win?
> 
> I’m going to bed, hugely dissapointed with the Straight Dope.

Bush, especially if he wins Ohio. Kerry would have to run the table to even have a chance after losing Ohio.

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**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/444 "2004-11-03T04:55:09Z")

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Ohio just narrowed to 112,000 votes. Cuyahoga _ **still** _ out.

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**Author:** ![Uncommon\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Uncommon\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncommon_Sense)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/445 "2004-11-03T04:56:03Z")

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California isn’t a lock is it?

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**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/446 "2004-11-03T04:58:07Z")

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> [@Uncommon Sense](#):
>
> California isn’t a lock is it?

It is, for Kerry.

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**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/447 "2004-11-03T04:58:11Z")

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> [@AHunter3](#):
>
> To pull it off without either Ohio or Florida, Kerry needs (among the ones he isn’t assured of): Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire (still not called!), New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

Swap Nevada for New Mexico and Kerry is ahead in all of them (granted, only by a few thousand in each). Add Washington and Oregon and that lifts Kerry up to 274 without Ohio and Florida.

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**Author:** ![passengerpigeon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/58f4c7/32.png) [@passengerpigeon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/passengerpigeon)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/448 "2004-11-03T04:59:07Z")

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> [@Uncommon Sense](#):
>
> California isn’t a lock is it?

Oh cmon. Kerry has a popular lead, an exit poll lead, and common sense behind him in California. If it swings I will buy a hat, and then eat it.

–p

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**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/449 "2004-11-03T04:59:16Z")

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The Corner’s still going on about how there was no youth vote and ABC still going on about how there was a large youth turn out.

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**Author:** ![Uncommon\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Uncommon\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncommon_Sense)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/450 "2004-11-03T04:59:45Z")

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Bush, closing the gap in WI. 13,000 votes out with only 50% reporting.  
Bush will lose by 100,000 in Milwaukee but could make it up in the suburbs.

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**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/451 "2004-11-03T05:00:13Z")

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> [@Random](#):
>
> Ohio just narrowed to 112,000 votes. Cuyahoga _ **still** _ out.

And if Ohio goes for Bush narrowly, the issue of black voter will at minimum tarnish this election.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/452 "2004-11-03T05:00:31Z")

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It all comes down to the fact that even if Kerry gets elected, he won’t be able to do a thing because the Republicans have a lock on the Senate.

Bourbon is my friend. 😃

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/453 "2004-11-03T05:00:56Z")

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> [@Uncommon Sense](#):
>
> California isn’t a lock is it?

Its a lock.

> [@Random](#):
>
> Ohio just narrowed to 112,000 votes. Cuyahoga still out.

Its 1,988k to 1,836k…I think its just about over to be honest. Not as over as Florida but just about.

Still doesn’t give Bush enough to win.

-XT

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Uncommon\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Uncommon\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncommon_Sense)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/454 "2004-11-03T05:01:14Z")

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> [@Uncommon Sense](#):
>
> California isn’t a lock is it?

Sorry, I forgot the drinking reference and the 😃

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/455 "2004-11-03T05:01:43Z")

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> [@Random](#):
>
> Ohio just narrowed to 112,000 votes. Cuyahoga _ **still** _ out.

As of 0007 EST, Cuyahoga is two thirds in, and at current rates would deliver Kerry 60,000 votes more. Bush-heavy counties are still not all in.

The math just does not work for Kerry. He needs another 50,000 votes from somewhere else in Ohio, and they just are not out there.

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**Author:** ![EsotericEnigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e274bd/32.png) [@EsotericEnigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EsotericEnigma)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/456 "2004-11-03T05:02:54Z")

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How can you all give Kerry the win without Ohio and Florida? It’s not possible. keep in mind he loses one from maine’s total to Bush. Even if he takes NM, NV, WI, MI, IA and whatever else, Kerry can NOT win without Ohio.

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**Author:** ![Neurotik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/91b2a8/32.png) [@Neurotik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Neurotik)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/457 "2004-11-03T05:03:29Z")

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> [@xtisme](#):
>
> Still doesn’t give Bush enough to win.

Yeah, it does.

Of the 16 states CNN is reporting in play, I’m fairly confident that FL, AZ, MT, CO, NV and AK are Bush country. That’s 254 votes. If Bush wins Ohio, the jig is up. Kerry loses.

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**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/458 "2004-11-03T05:03:58Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> There’s what, 160,000 absentee ballots or something? Bush is over 300,000 votes ahead. Even if those absentee ballots break 100% for Kerry, he can’t make up the gap.

According to Daily Kos, there are about one million absentee ballots to be counted in Florida. Still not likely, but I don’t think they’ll be calling this one tonight.

I think Ohio has a lot of absentee ballots as well–I doubt it will get called, either.

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**Author:** ![ShockingAlberto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ea924/32.png) [@ShockingAlberto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShockingAlberto)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/459 "2004-11-03T05:04:36Z")

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So the entire fate of the nation, heck, possibly the world, is in the hands of Ohio.

…

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Neurotik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/91b2a8/32.png) [@Neurotik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Neurotik)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/460 "2004-11-03T05:05:30Z")

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> [@ShockingAlberto](#):
>
> So the entire fate of the nation, heck, possibly the world, is in the hands of Ohio.
> 
> …

Pretty much.

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