# Nov '04 Election Comments Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 2, 2004, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563 "2004-11-02T16:04:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/61 "2004-11-02T22:13:01Z")
His main site is back up, with a map showing Kerry with 311 electoral votes and Bush with 213. But when I click “Here’s how we got there,” I get an error message, so I’m not even sure if this is based on exit polls or what. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/62 "2004-11-02T22:13:06Z")
NEWS FLASH: Zogby predicts landslide win for Kerry in EC [http://www.zogby.com/](http://www.zogby.com/) Released: November 02, 2004 Our Call Zogby International’s 2004 Predictions (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm) _Please note that Zogby Final predictions will come out Election Day at 5 pm_ 2004 Presidential Election Electoral Votes: Bush 213 Kerry 311 To Close To Call Nevada (5) To Close To Call Colorado (9) * * * Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1% The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2 ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/63 "2004-11-02T22:16:20Z")
> [@rfgdxm](#): > > [http://www.drudgereport.com/](http://www.drudgereport.com/) > > “17:12:21 ET // Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after data showed Kerry competitive in key states… **Fla Kerry +1** Pa Kerry+2-4 Oh Kerry+1 Wi Kerry+4 M Kerry+2 Nh Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: **Martinez fla** Thune SD Bunning ky Salazar Co // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]… Developing…” > > Just 3 minutes ago. This is a bit counter intuitive and if it holds will be a bit of an upset. It points towards latinos here voting against Bush but for Martinez. Martinez ran a very negative primary campaign and a very negative Senate campaign. Castor was endorsed by conservative newspapers (I’m not sure about Orlando and Miami). I’ve heard several local public radio segments where the voters wanted to vote for Castor but also wanted the pride of a Cuban-American Senator. I hope that he’s a better person after the election than before it. ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/64 "2004-11-02T22:17:37Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > His main site is back up, with a map showing Kerry with 311 electoral votes and Bush with 213. But when I click “Here’s how we got there,” I get an error message, so I’m not even sure if this is based on exit polls or what. > > Daniel This is based on exit polls. However, Kerry is just only slightly ahead in key states. This ISN’T in the bag for Kerry by far yet. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/65 "2004-11-02T22:19:53Z")
> [@rfgdxm](#): > > NEWS FLASH: Zogby predicts landslide win for Kerry in EC Zogby’s seems to be arriving at this figure by giving Kerry OH, FL AND Pennsylvania…I think this is wildly early to be giving Kerry ALL of them at this point. However, if Kerry just wins 2 of the 3 he’ll be the next president. Course, if Bush wins 2 of the 3 he will remain president. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/66 "2004-11-02T22:21:37Z")
The real test: Will the exit poll results match the Diebold voting machine tabulations? ---
**Author:** ![Kid\_A\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Kid\_A\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kid_A_1)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/67 "2004-11-02T22:22:13Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > This is a bit counter intuitive and if it holds will be a bit of an upset. It points towards latinos here voting against Bush but for Martinez. Martinez ran a very negative primary campaign and a very negative Senate campaign. Castor was endorsed by conservative newspapers (I’m not sure about Orlando and Miami). I’ve heard several local public radio segments where the voters wanted to vote for Castor but also wanted the pride of a Cuban-American Senator. I hope that he’s a better person after the election than before it. The other Senate race that interested me was the fact he’s got Daschle losing…I mean I’m not very up to date on my South Dakota politics, but I’ve got to figure this a major loss for the Dems if things stay the way they are. Any idea what the last senate majority or minority leader to lose was? ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/68 "2004-11-02T22:22:57Z")
From **Slate,** by way of DailyKos (since Slate is down at the moment), as of 20:41 GMT: ```auto NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51 Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46 ``` ---
**Author:** ![5que](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/3bc359/32.png) [@5que](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5que)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/69 "2004-11-02T22:23:40Z")
Holy Cow! What made Brutus so wordy today? Can’t remember when I have seen **two** paragraphs from him before. Now, to the election. I’m just back from Wisconsin, as a poll watcher. Some problems this morning in Kenosha (3 precincts) when there were lines waiting to vote. People were being told they couldn’t vote if they were not registered. Not true in Wisconsin – you can register and vote at the same time. Kerry poll watchers are armed with cameras to photograph any intimidation. Seem to be a lot of register + vote young people today – probably a good sign for Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![lno](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a8b319/32.png) [@lno](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lno)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/70 "2004-11-02T22:34:00Z")
Kim N. Boyce was running unopposed for Soil and Water Supervisor, District 1. I exercised my civic duty and voted for a write-in candidate. In the event Ms Boyce wins the election and distrastrous effects befall the soil and water in district 1, I can confidently say, **Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.** ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/71 "2004-11-02T22:35:03Z")
Carlson and Begala are hosting things on CNN right now, and Tucker has pretty much conceded. I think we can call it for Kerry. You heard it here first, folks!! ---
**Author:** ![Astroboy14](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/df705f/32.png) [@Astroboy14](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astroboy14)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/72 "2004-11-02T22:37:06Z")
I arrived at my usual polling place this morning only to find that they had divided the area I live in into 2 polling places… and people who lived where I do had to go to a different location about a block away. _ **In the garage of a MORTUARY** _! Weirdness. No problems voting though, and it was fairly fast as well. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/73 "2004-11-02T22:39:23Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Carlson and Begala are hosting things on CNN right now, and Tucker has pretty much conceded. I think we can call it for Kerry. You heard it here first, folks!! Well, with proof like that who can question? I guess everyone can go home now. 😛 -XT ---
**Author:** ![chula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a4c791/32.png) [@chula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chula)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/74 "2004-11-02T22:53:26Z")
From Wonkette, 5:40 p.m.: > [@](#): > > CO Bush 50 Kerry 48 > FL Kerry 51 Bush 49 > IA Kerry 50 Bush 49 > MI Kerry 51 Bush 47 > MN Kerry 54 Bush 44 > NV tied > NH Kerry 53 Bush 45 > NJ Kerry 54 Bush 44 There’s more, but the site’s slow at the moment. From Wonkette, 5:25 p.m.: > [@](#): > > From an email being circulated which uses numbers by GOP pollster Frank Luntz: > > Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent > Fla. > Ohio > Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry > Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry > Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win) > NM: Kerry plus 2 > Nev: Bush plus 1 > NH: Kerry by 3 > NJ: 8 points for Kerry > Colo: Bush plus 2 > Mich: Kerry plus 4 ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/75 "2004-11-02T22:55:26Z")
> [@Astroboy14](#): > > _ **In the garage of a MORTUARY** _! I thought that the dead were only entitled to vote in Chicago. ---
**Author:** ![Orbifold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/779978/32.png) [@Orbifold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Orbifold)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/76 "2004-11-02T22:58:06Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Carlson and Begala are hosting things on CNN right now, and Tucker has pretty much conceded. I think we can call it for Kerry. You heard it here first, folks!! Wasn’t everyone scolding the TV news orgs for making early predictions in 2000, after everyone belatedly realized that the Florida panhandle was in a different time zone than the rest of the state? Did that go down the memory hole? ---
**Author:** ![chula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a4c791/32.png) [@chula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chula)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/77 "2004-11-02T23:01:49Z")
Here’s the rest of Wonkette’s 5:40 post: > [@](#): > > NM Kerry 50 Bush 48 > OH Kerry 51 Bush 49 > OR still too early to get accurate reading > PA Kerry 53 Bush 46 > WI Kerry 51 Bush 48 > Disclaims a birdie: “\*\*\* There appear be problems with exits in the following states that could be tipping numbers toward kerry: MN, NH, VT, PA, VA, CT, DE. described only as ‘serious’ issues we’re looking at. so i would not put too much faith in those results.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/78 "2004-11-02T23:05:27Z")
> [@Orbifold](#): > > Wasn’t everyone scolding the TV news orgs for making early predictions in 2000, after everyone belatedly realized that the Florida panhandle was in a different time zone than the rest of the state? Did that go down the memory hole? Not an explicit prediction, but just the way he was talking about the high turnout and other subjects. He was completely dejected. ---
**Author:** ![Orbifold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/779978/32.png) [@Orbifold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Orbifold)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/79 "2004-11-02T23:33:50Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Not an explicit prediction, but just the way he was talking about the high turnout and other subjects. He was completely dejected. Ah, I see. 'Course, now for some reason I have a mental picture of Tucker Carlson’s bow tie changing colour in response to his moods. “Hey, look, now it’s turning blue! No wait, yellow, that means happy…Iowa must have gone to Bush!” [small](I just finished the submission process for my first NSF grant proposal, and I’m a little giddy. Bear that in mind. I’ll go now.)[/small] ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563/80 "2004-11-02T23:34:01Z")
Another update. Looking mighty fine if you happen to be Kerry, or someone who hates Bush. [http://www.dailykos.com/](http://www.dailykos.com/) 6 p.m. Exit polls by kos Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 22:36:35 GMT Getting close to real results. But these are the last batch of exits. Grain of salt and all that… Kerry Bush PA 53 46 FL 51 49 NC 48 52 OH 51 49 MI 46 54 AK 47 53 MI 51 47 NM 50 49 LA 43 56 CO 48 51 AZ 45 55 MN 54 44 WI 52 47 IA 49 49 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nov-04-election-comments-thread/272563.md?page=5)