# November 4, 2020: Trump has won reelection. What's the likeliest post-election explanation? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 30, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262 "2020-01-30T23:50:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/1 "2020-01-30T23:50:59Z")
A spinoff of **Happy Fun Ball** ’s [thread here:](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=889145) Hypothetical fast-forward to November 4, 2020: It is the morning after Election Night, and to the shock of many and dismay of many, Trump has somehow won reelection, defying most pre-election predictions again. He won by a narrower margin than the first time, and still failed to capture the popular vote, but the result is indisputable: He’s in for four more years. What do you think the analysts and pundits will be pointing the finger on the morning the day after at as the reason/culprit? Some options to consider (but you can supply any of your own that you think of, no need to pick from any of the below): [ul] [li]Russian interference, again[/li][li]Fake news and disinformation on social media[/li][li]The “shy Trump voter” was a real phenomenon and polls failed to capture the true extent of his support[/li][li]Nominating a moderate like Biden resulted in failing to excite the Democratic base[/li][li]Nominating a progressive like Warren or Bernie resulted in scaring away moderate voters[/li][li]The economy was good enough that Trump was able to ride incumbent advantage to reelection[/li][li]Some major gaffe by the Democratic nominee on the campaign trail that he/she wasn’t able to shake off[/li][li]Backlash against SJW/woke culture[/li][li]White/Christian/male/rural fear of displacement[/li][li]An “October surprise” - some major unexpected event (at home or abroad) that revved up Trump support[/li][li]Ginsburg departing the Supreme Court, thus revving up conservatives wanting a conservative judge in her place[/li][li]Trump running a better campaign than expected[/li][li]The Democratic nominee running a worse campaign than expected[/li][li]Some third-party candidate sucking away crucial votes from the Democrat, like Nader 2000[/li][li]Voter misogyny (if Warren was the Democratic nominee)[/li][li]Homophobia (if Buttigieg was the nominee)[/li][li]Trump’s financial $ war chest was just that much bigger than the Democrats’[/li][li]The Electoral College[/li][li]Democratic voters getting purged from the rolls or prevented from voting[/li][li]Trump having a more effective message[/li][li]Republicans being more unified than Democrats[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/2 "2020-01-30T23:55:06Z")
Edit: Another option might be that the Democratic candidate might be accused, in hindsight, of having campaigned in the wrong states, like how Hillary was criticized for paying attention to Texas and Georgia but ignoring Wisconsin + Michigan + Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/3 "2020-01-31T01:38:12Z")
Foreign interference, again. The electoral college being a thing for some reason. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/4 "2020-01-31T01:45:04Z")
He shot his Democratic opponent on Fifth Avenue, but it’s okay because doing so was in the national interest. Whaddya gonna do, voters, vote for the dead guy? ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/5 "2020-01-31T04:02:09Z")
America is full of white racists and self-hating or deluded minorities. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/6 "2020-01-31T04:54:53Z")
If that happens, I hope we adopt a history test to take for the right to vote, not just given. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/7 "2020-01-31T05:49:52Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > [ul] > [li]Fake news and disinformation on social media[/li][li]The economy was good enough that Trump was able to ride incumbent advantage to reelection[/li][li]Backlash against SJW/woke culture[/li][li]White/Christian/male/rural fear of displacement[/li][li]Democratic voters getting purged from the rolls or prevented from voting[/li][li]Republicans being more unified than Democrats[/li][/ul] - China throwing him a deal in the trade war, to boost the stock market and help keep him. - Cheating / not appointing people to the FEC, or posting corrupt slimeballs to it. [quote] [ul][li]Trump having a more effective message[/ul][/li][/quote] Lol, no. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/8 "2020-01-31T12:45:54Z")
I’m not sure what I would say is top of the list, but I’m fairly certain it will be a combination of things. [ul] [li]Electoral college is bullshit[/li][li]voter suppression (purging voter roles of minorities, making it harder to register, closing polling locations in minority areas, etc)[/li][li]Foreign interference[/li][li]Corrupt domestic investigations of his opponent[/li][/ul] Probably the real reason is Fox News and their entire brain dead cult. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/9 "2020-01-31T12:54:30Z")
I can’t help but note that the _actual_ reasons and the explanations offered by “analysts and pundits” are likely to be very different things. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/10 "2020-01-31T13:50:28Z")
> [@Projammer](#): > > America is full of white racists and self-hating or deluded minorities. Partly this. A big part. > [@Locrian](#): > > If that happens, I hope we adopt a history test to take for the right to vote, not just given. Epistocrats are having their time in the sun because it’s such an appealing concept at first glance. But there’s just so much potential downside. Remember Jim Crow literacy tests? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/11 "2020-01-31T14:13:32Z")
Same reason he won last time: - appeal to grievance culture of the older, white, evangelical, gun obsessed, bigoted, xenophobic nationalist, bully loving, low self esteem, low information voter (63M at last count) - apathy of the left, moderate and independent voter because Democratic nominee failed to inspire turn out ---
**Author:** ![phantom\_lamb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5f9b8f/32.png) [@phantom\_lamb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phantom_lamb)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/12 "2020-01-31T14:43:10Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > [li]The Electoral College[/li] I don’t mean to oversimplify complicated matters - but this is _basically_ it. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/13 "2020-01-31T14:51:04Z")
Right? He got less votes, but won a democratic election. How does that work? A testament to the superior economy of Republican strategists in pitching their message hardest to voters whose votes count the most, while Dems repeat the mistake of squandering their resources on the least valuable voters. File this answer under: \*Bang for the buck ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/14 "2020-01-31T15:10:10Z")
"No one in this world has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” Henry Louis Mencken A one vote victory in the electoral college and an overwhelming loss in the popular vote will result a claim of historic Republican victory and a free mandate to govern as they please. The Republicans think their base is even dumber than the Dems know it is. I believe the pundits will be preoccupied with speculation about the consequences of the disaster rather than with the deplorables who made it possible. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/15 "2020-01-31T17:57:46Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Edit: Another option might be that the Democratic candidate might be accused, in hindsight, of having campaigned in the wrong states, like how Hillary was criticized for paying attention to Texas and Georgia but ignoring Wisconsin + Michigan + Pennsylvania. She may have ignored Wisconsin, but her final big campaign rally was in Philadelphia. And I seem to recall a video of her campaigning with Bernie in Michigan. The constant drum beat of GOP led investigations, Russian disinformation and the credulous nature of the mainstream media in giving the disinformation front page headlines (NY Times headline Uranium One made-up “scandal” numerous times for example) led to Hillary’s demise. This time more of that against the Democratic candidate plus the fact that the economy is good could very well lead to a Trump win. I would not be shocked, only greatly disappointed. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/16 "2020-01-31T18:00:07Z")
Liberals being big ole meanies again. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/17 "2020-01-31T18:09:28Z")
So everyone is happily guessing what caused an event that hasn’t happened? Ok. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/18 "2020-01-31T18:23:11Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > If that happens, I hope we adopt a history test to take for the right to vote, not just given. What sort of questions do you envision in this history test that would get the desired outcome? Like, what sort of questions would stump bad voters and pass good voters? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/19 "2020-01-31T18:48:14Z")
Everyone gains a new respect for Trump’s wisdom after the Cylons attack Earth but are beaten off by our Space Force. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262/20 "2020-01-31T18:52:33Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > If that happens, I hope we adopt a history test to take for the right to vote, not just given. I go the opposite way. I think we should take the right to vote as a given and anyone who wants to remove a person for the electoral rolls should have to prove their case first. And having the person who gets the most votes actually win the election would be a good idea too. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/november-4-2020-trump-has-won-reelection-whats-the-likeliest-post-election-explanation/847262.md?page=2)