Gosh, and the chance of them all being the same gender is an astonishingly low 25%. I have never seen such convincing confirmation of what we all secretly knew about women drivers. Were any of them Asian?
12.5%?
0.5 ^ 3 = 0.125
12.5% is the probability that all three are of one previously specified gender. But if all three were men, the poster could similarly have inferred that all men are terrible drivers. So I think in terms of assessing the strength of the evidence, the relevant probability is that all three are the same gender, without specifying which gender. All female or all male - that’s a 25% probability.
I’m not tempted, but we may have reached a point where I could be tempted in the future.
Tesla’s build quality is abysmal, and they’ve done practically nothing to improve it because demand was so high they didn’t have to. Now that manufacturing capacity has caught up to (decreasing) demand, maybe they will do like everyone else and hire some retired QA execs from Japan as consultants to get their shit together as far as quality.
I’m much more likely to buy an EV from Hyundai/Kia at this point.
Agree w your whole post. Both as to logic and as to math.
But I suppose we could go all Bayesian here and suggest the poster had a prior that “women are lousy drivers”. Once we plunk that prior into our calcs, different numbers will come out the other end. Can’t say which different numbers until we can quantify the strength of the prior.
Sorta kidding here, sorta not.
If we go down that route, then we have to multiply 12.5% by the total number of people who have a preconception that women are bad drivers and want to “prove” it and have at least 3 accidents where the other party is at fault. I don’t know how many such people there are, but I’m fairly confident that there are more than 8.
At Tesla’s new and improved pricing, I wonder how many FTX Tokens it takes to buy one?
He covers the issues, but imo he has the order of importance backwards. He talks about increased competition at the end, but I think that’s the primary thing going on here - Tesla are losing the pricing power that has allowed them to make a 30% gross margin.
Higher interest rates and possible recession are a significant headwind for everyone right now, but I think with Tesla is more that this is an exacerbating factor that piles on extra pressure right at the time when they need to transition to higher volume and tighter margins.
That’s why I think there is no “rush” to make this decision. It’s not as though Tesla prices are going right back up if we end up with relatively benign macroeconomic conditions by the end of the year.
So it sounds like if this was a poll (that would have been a good idea!) it would be 2 “Maybe”, 10 “No”, and 20 “HELL no!”.
Why ‘lousy drivers’? How about ‘more likely to be texting while driving’? That’s true, by the way. Women are more likely to text and drive than are men, probably because women are heavier users of texting and more social in general.
I would expect aggressive drivers to be more likely to be men. I would expect drunk drivers to be more likely to be men. I would expect young males to be more dangerous than young females behind the wheel. Insurance rates show this. But in my experience (and in the data), women are more likely to text and drive.
Here’s an example:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211335515000200
That study found that women were 63% more likely to use a cell phone while driving.
Caveat: Different places and cultures may have different trends. This may not be universal, even in America or Canada.
These really are the facts. All were women. All were on cellphones. All were busy with their iPhones (brand specific). All rear-ended me. If they were all men, I would’ve said “…due to another man on his cell phone…”.
I apologize if it came out the wrong way. I’m just effing tired of being run into by irresponsible fools with fancy phones and insufficient insurance. I’m tired. I’m in constant pain. And I may never be able to turn my head/neck again like I used to. I’m paying for almost everything, including transportation back home, and providing my own transportation as I await a replacement. My health insurance is covering all the injuries. My auto insurance is making up the huge gap between the other driver’s minimal coverage and the actual costs. I will end up paying an increased insurance rate (since it’s coming off my policy instead of hers). I am justified in my exasperation over all this, even if more care should be taken with how I phrase it. I’ve been driving for 52 years, both for myself and professionally, and I’ve managed to keep all my cars and even big trucks from ramming into someone’s rear. I’m just fed up right now, and again I apologize for how it sounded. Maybe I should wait 'till after the pain meds before posting in the future. (I think I will prescribe myself some wine and the hot tub this evening. Maybe that will help. 
)
I’m not disputing the facts. I’m questioning why you chose to relate those facts (rather than, say, the color of the cars), and disputing your unwarranted inference from these facts. If men and women are each responsible for half of all accidents, then purely by chance in 25% of random samples of 3 accidents the gender of the person responsible will be same for all three accidents.
It seems to me that it came out exactly the way you intended, since you are doubling down. If you want to apologize, then what you need to apologize for is your unwarranted implication that women in general are worse drivers. If that wasn’t your intended implication, why is their gender a prominent part of your story, how is it relevant?
As I pointed out in another thread, it’s not nearly as neat as that. There is a bias: 38% Democrats to 30% Republicans from people who identified as such, but it sure as shit ain’t “libs” just buying those cars. Why people think they’re meant as a liberal wet dream, I don’t know. They’re high (or moderately high) income techy-savvy folk cars.
Still, it seems a really bad idea to antagonize part of the market.
This all must also have a big impact on customer retention for purely economic reasons. An unfortunate consequence of a company being in a phase where it is forced by competition to cut prices, to reposition from just the premium end of the market, is the impact on customer loyalty. All the early adopters who paid a premium for the unique niche appeal. The fact that they now know they could have waited and bought 25% cheaper; that second hand values have collapsed by a corresponding amount. That has to have a psychological impact, even if in theory they aren’t economically any worse off because the new car that they might trade in for is also correspondingly cheaper.
Marked down to $15k, then maybe.
You don’t think it’s possible that for every ‘lib’ turned off by Musk there might be a ‘con’ out there who might buy a Tesla because they’ve decided Musk is one of them?
Or for that matter a much larger number of people who don’t give a hot damn who the owner of a car company is?
I concede that Tesla will lose sales from partisan liberals. It’s not clear they won’t make that up elsewhere. Tesla is down about as much as other EV makers, but they have a huge advantage going forward: Vertical integration makes them less susceptible to supply chain issues. They currently have the shortest wait lists of any manufacturer, and it sounds like they are producing enough cars that they can lower prices while everyone else is raising theirs.
I looked at the Tesla model 3 a few years ago at a local car show. I was not happy with the fit and finish. One body panel had a gap about 1/4" wider at the bottom than the top, and the door handles had paint seams running theough them right where your hands go among pther issues. Also, I hated the lack of physical controls. At the time it was a hard pass. I don’t know if they’ve gotten better since. I will say I think they still have the best electric tech and software, and most reviewers agree. But cars like the Kia EV6 are closing the gap rapidly.
That’s one way to spin the price reduction. Another is that their sales are suffering, partly because they’re no longer the only game in town and they are producing more than they can sell.
Same. Miss mine muchly.