# Now that Elon Musk has bought Twitter - now the Pit edition (Part 1)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442>\
**Category:** The BBQ Pit\
**Created:** [April 25, 2022, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442 "2022-04-25T22:50:17Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 135

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**Author:** ![tofor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tofor/32/13727_2.png) [@tofor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tofor)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2682 "2023-01-17T14:29:08Z")

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> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> There are three options here.
> 
> 1. Musk doesn’t know what open source means.
> 2. He is an idiot for making the Twitter recommendation algorithm open source.
> 3. He’s lying. Again.
> 
> I suspect it is a mix of all three, but mainly option 3. All part of the 29D chess game I suppose.

If they made it open source that would just mean anybody else can read and use the code as restricted by whatever license they chose to slap on it. It’s not an inherently absurd idea.

But, coupled with everything else, it’s almost certainly not going to happen.

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**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2683 "2023-01-17T14:39:28Z")

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It is absolutely absurd. It would be analyzed and abused by bots, spammers, and scammers. Making the code open source would be madness. Plus, from a strictly business sense, the recommendation algorithm is one of the most valuable commodities for social media. Let’s say that Twitter did develop a key butt algorithm (unlikely but you know maybe Musk would do it in his spare time between tweets). It would be promptly taken by other content providers. Good for consumers, bad for Twitter.

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2684 "2023-01-17T14:41:19Z")

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Even if the code was made open source, his statement doesn’t really ‘say’ anything. Open source is not some kind of cureall.

The recommendation algorithms rely on an incredible amount of information from not only the user it is sending recommendations to but across the entire user base. While he may open up the source code, there is less than a snowball’s chance in Hell he will knowingly release any of that user data.

Knowing ‘how’ the algorithms work can absolutely be abused but the effect blunted by lack of that user data - those spammers and bots already do a good job getting to users even without knowing the exact way those algorithms work, i.e. the genie is already mostly out of the bottle - but what he’s really trying to say to this person is “Trust us, we am smart people and am knowing fancy tech buzzwords”. He’s leaving it to others to figure out and execute what he ‘really’ means.

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**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2685 "2023-01-17T14:46:43Z")

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> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> but what he’s really trying to say to this person is “Trust us, we am smart people and am knowing fancy tech buzzwords”. He’s leaving it to others to figure out and execute what he ‘really’ means.

It is definitely almost entirely this. Plus, it is PR, which is Musk’s real ‘talent’. The Muskrats will be excited by the prospect of open source because open source is what the good guys do. Open source, good, closed source, bad. Musk wants Twitter to be open source; therefore, he’s a good guy. He’s playing to his base in a sense.

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**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2686 "2023-01-17T15:29:50Z")

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^ that

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2687 "2023-01-17T16:08:20Z")

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> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> what he’s really trying to say to this person is “Trust us, we am smart people and am knowing fancy tech buzzwords”. He’s leaving it to others to figure out and execute what he ‘really’ means.

So the guy in _Glass Onion_ who just faxed random words to people and left it to them to figure out what he meant wasn’t an unrealistic character after all.

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2688 "2023-01-17T17:24:35Z")

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Isn’t that what Rian Johnson said? The character was not _not_ Elon Musk

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2689 "2023-01-17T17:29:29Z")

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The character satirizes the general concept of the vapid tech billionaire who doesn’t know anything. Elon’s accelerated plunge into self-parody is absolutely too recent to be the inspiration for the character, but that doesn’t mean the parallels aren’t obvious.

Honestly, the strength of those parallels is how we know it’s good satire. The character would be much weaker if it were a note-for-note parody of one person

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**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2690 "2023-01-17T17:29:40Z")

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I saw him as a generic dot-com CEO nouveau riche narcissist.

But I remember thinking that the first Knives Out was pretty timeless. This one? I immediately thought “Well, someone’s going to watch this in thirty years\* and say ‘Ahh, this was clearly written in late 2022’…”

\*At least I HOPE the era of Musk and his ilk will be over by then.

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**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2691 "2023-01-17T17:50:07Z")

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> [@digs](#):
>
> \*At least I HOPE the era of Musk and his ilk will be over by then.

To say nothing of masking for COVID.

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**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2692 "2023-01-17T17:52:29Z")

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> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#):
>
> The character satirizes the general concept of the vapid tech billionaire who doesn’t know anything. Elon’s accelerated plunge into self-parody is absolutely too recent to be the inspiration for the character, but that doesn’t mean the parallels aren’t obvious.

I haven’t watched Glass Onion, but the HBO “Silicon Valley” had Erlich Bachman and Russ Hanneman as examples of the same genre of character – Tech guys who made money in the 90s when “internet money” was fast and loose, and now want to be seen as mentors and tech gurus.

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**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2693 "2023-01-17T22:13:13Z")

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> **[Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/tesla-video-promoting-self-driving-was-staged-engineer-testifies-rcna66150)**
>
> The video, which was released in October 2016 and remains archived on Tesla’s website, was promoted on Twitter by CEO Elon Musk as evidence the "Tesla drives itself."

More Musk lies.

> [@](#):
>
> without disclosing that the route had been mapped in advance or that a car had crashed in trying to complete the shoot

Bolding mine. I’m sorry, I just about died laughing at that part.

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**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2694 "2023-01-17T23:24:10Z")

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> **[Subscribe to read | Financial Times](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/01/looming-twitter-interest-payment-leaves-elon-musk-with-unpalatable-options/)**
>
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Bad news for Musky?

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**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2695 "2023-01-17T23:46:53Z")

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> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> Bad news for Musky?

I think they intend this to be sensational:

> Purchased for $44 billion, company is likely worth as little as $15 billion today.

But in fact I think that’s a hugely optimistic valuation. Even _without_ the takeover, if you look at what the market and the sector have done the value of Twitter would have halved.

With the massive debt burden that Twitter took on and the collapse in ad revenues, with Musk’s shenanigans and no coherent business plan, any path out of this will likely result in the equity portion of the takeover being wiped out. I’m certain that any of the equity investors would be slamming any bid at 33% of what they paid.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2696 "2023-01-17T23:48:40Z")

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> [@Riemann](#):
>
> I’m certain that any of the equity investors would be slamming any bid at 33% of what they paid.

All part of Musk’s brilliant plan! He’s going to buy back the equity at a fraction of what he sold it for. 85D chess at its finest.

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**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\
**Post date:** [January 17, 2023, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2697 "2023-01-17T23:54:04Z")

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Twitter was never worth $44 billion to begin with, but Elmo has never allowed good business sense to stand in the way of LOL TEH WEED NUMBER with his $54.20 per share offer.

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**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\
**Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2698 "2023-01-18T00:02:09Z")

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> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Twitter was never worth $44 billion to begin with

I think his offer was probably around a 20% premium to where the market was valuing it in early 2022, and absent his takeover the share price would probably have declined around 30% along with the rest of the sector since than. So absent Musk, I’d guess a market cap of around $22 billion today. That’s the _starting_ point for considering the impact of the debt and the damage he’s done. And the equity investors at the takeover price have junk-leveraged exposure.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2699 "2023-01-18T07:35:22Z")

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> [@digs](#):
>
> But I remember thinking that the first Knives Out was pretty timeless. This one? I immediately thought “Well, someone’s going to watch this in thirty years\* and say ‘Ahh, this was clearly written in late 2022’…”

Some movies are timeless; others, like _Easy Rider_ or _Saturday Night Fever_, are snapshots of their time and place.

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**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\
**Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2700 "2023-01-18T17:21:00Z")

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Some good people I follow on Twitter follow some bad people to monitor the bad things bad people are thinking and saying. Elmo has decided that means that I too want to follow the likes of Dan Bongino and Kevin McCarthy. Elmo is incorrect.

OTOH, I got my notice that I’ve been accepted to the Post beta version today. I’m happy to do my small part to bring Elmo Twitter down and replace it with something that will be a force for positive change.

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**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\
**Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-elon-musk-has-bought-twitter-now-the-pit-edition-part-1/963442/2701 "2023-01-18T17:27:48Z")

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I’m getting more porn account likes than I used to. My likes are so rare that it’s rather disappointing.

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