# Now that Kerry likely won't win, is third party voting still a "waste"? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 7, 2004, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464 "2004-09-07T09:57:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Eleusis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Eleusis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eleusis)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/21 "2004-09-07T12:15:18Z")
> [@SentientMeat](#): > > Who would a social libertarian or a Pinochet-type capitalist vote for? Bush. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/22 "2004-09-07T12:17:39Z")
I’ll be voting in California. If I vote Green or Nader I can do so without fear of my vote putting Bush back in office because there’s no way that Kerry won’t win California. If I vote Kerry that tells the Democratic Party that they have my support- a message I do not want to convey. But if I vote for Cobb or Nader it tells the Democratic Party that they are losing the Left. If enough voters send this message we challenge the Democratic Party to win us back- may not have a huge effect on their next choice for a Presidential Candidate but our Senators and Congressmen may feel safer making more Left-leaning choices. (I wouldn’t, personally, discount voting Libertarian but the Dems may see that as a vote lost by the Republicans not a vote lost by them.) If I lived in a “battleground” state, I’d probably vote Kerry- because it would make more of a difference possibly giving Kerry a win in a state that could have gone to Bush. But if you live in a State that is an easy win for either Bush or Kerry a third party vote is more important. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/23 "2004-09-07T12:45:09Z")
> [@duffer](#): > > And this is why, despite my political differences with **BLD** , I won’t slam him views. I’ll admit to not knowing the best way to run the country as I’m sure he would. There is so much we don’t know that Presidents do. > > The beauty of the US Constitution is that there are so many checks and balances, no one person can destroy the country. This is what is so entertaining to me when I see people citing Bush turning America into 1934 Germany. > > Ain’t gonna happen folks. You may hate the policies a President puts forth, but it won’t come close to creating the fall of the Republic. Dammit, **duffer** , what the hell are you doing being all reasonable and stuff? Just when I was spoiling for a mop-the-floor, eye-gouging, garbage-flinging, mud-wallowing, content-free partisan rantfest, you have to stroll in with shit like THIS? :mad: Damn party-pooper. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![duffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duffer/32/1026_2.png) [@duffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duffer)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/24 "2004-09-07T12:54:49Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Dammit, **duffer** , what the hell are you doing being all reasonable and stuff? Just when I was spoiling for a mop-the-floor, eye-gouging, garbage-flinging, mud-wallowing, content-free partisan rantfest, you have to stroll in with shit like THIS? > > :mad: Damn party-pooper. 😛 Sorry dude, I only had 3 beers in the fridge so I’m posting whilst sober. Don’t worry though, I’m off to the bar for a few more. Back in a couple hours to try to disagree with you. Goddammit, now I’ve pissed off\*\* BLD\*\*. I’m so screwed. :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/25 "2004-09-07T12:59:01Z")
If the polls on election day show Bush with an insurmountable lead in North Carolina, that’s when I’ll consider casting my vote for a third-party candidate. Trouble is, Nader’s not campaigning on the issues this year, so he can’t get my vote; the Libertarian party presents what I consider a spurious version of liberty, and the Socialist parties are all kinda whacko. There’s no real good third-party candidate this year that I know of. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/26 "2004-09-07T13:14:51Z")
I voted for Nader last time in a futile attempt to send a wake up call to the Democratic party. This year, Colorado will be close so there is no way I’m going to waste my vote. It’ll be Kerry for me. **Liberal** , I really was expecting the shakeup you speak of to take place eight years ago. There was a glimmering hope that the Reform Party was going to turn out to not just be a vehicle for Perot’s ego. That, combined with a strong sense of dissatisfaction with both parties, made it appear that realignment was a real possibility. And when the movement was over, I would have expected to see two major parties again. That’s what our system rewards. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/27 "2004-09-07T13:23:53Z")
> [@Eleusis](#): > > I’ll go one further, and say that even _abortion_ can’t be [outlawed] by the current administration, no matter how bad they want it. Not _this_ term, maybe. But O’Connor’s rumored to be a good bet to retire next term, and Stevens will be 85 in April; one of these days he’s not going to be up to being a Supreme Court Justice anymore. If Bush gets a second term, the ‘Christian’ Right will almost certainly get its big payoff. ---
**Author:** ![Zebra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/c0e974/32.png) [@Zebra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zebra)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/28 "2004-09-07T13:27:50Z")
According to all the polls Howard Dean had a cakewalk in OHIO. This was the night before the caucus. If they can’t accurately predict Ohio on the night before, do you really think you can accurately predict the entire nation two months out? Stop listening to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![UrbanChic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/9dc877/32.png) [@UrbanChic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UrbanChic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/29 "2004-09-07T13:31:28Z")
I’ve been saying Kerry can’t win since before he was even the Democratic nominee. His dearth of charisma is simply astounding. In addition to severely underestimating Rove, Kerry and many Democrats really thought they could win by just not being Bush. While that may work for liberals and Democrats, it isn’t enough for swing voters. Also, bear in mind the current administration has done an _excellent_ job blurring the line between the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism; so much so that they’re now, for all practical intents and purposes, one and the same. Of course, some people know better, but those who do not comprise a very large percentage of voting Americans. You just don’t oust a President who’s “winning” the war on terrorism. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/30 "2004-09-07T13:35:20Z")
[QUOTE=Left Hand of Dorkness] If the polls on election day show Bush with an insurmountable lead in North Carolina, that’s when I’ll consider casting my vote for a third-party candidate. [QUOTE] > [@This Year's Model](#): > > This year, Colorado will be close so there is no way I’m going to waste my vote. It’ll be Kerry for me. Exactly. If it’s going to be close in your state- pick either Bush or Kerry. If one of those two is a guaranteed winner in your state- take the opportunity to actually say something with your vote. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/31 "2004-09-07T14:25:07Z")
> [@](#): > > **SentientMeat:** Who would a social libertarian or a Pinochet-type capitalist vote for? > **Eleusis** : Bush The second, I would agree entirely. Do you know what the first [means](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_socialism)? It is the very _antithesis_ of Bush’s doctrines, I would think. ---
**Author:** ![Balduran](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cc9497/32.png) [@Balduran](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balduran)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/32 "2004-09-07T15:00:41Z")
> [@Zebra](#): > > According to all the polls Howard Dean had a cakewalk in OHIO. This was the night before the caucus. If they can’t accurately predict Ohio on the night before, do you really think you can accurately predict the entire nation two months out? > > Stop listening to the polls. And in Canada polls showed the conservatives leading by pretty much double digits right up to the election., but the liberals won. People can really change their mind between talking to a pollster on the phone and actually being at the voting booth. ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/33 "2004-09-07T15:29:33Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Not _this_ term, maybe. > > But O’Connor’s rumored to be a good bet to retire next term, and Stevens will be 85 in April; one of these days he’s not going to be up to being a Supreme Court Justice anymore. > > If Bush gets a second term, the ‘Christian’ Right will almost certainly get its big payoff. The stupid thing is that, even if Roe v. Wade gets overturned there is enough support for abortion rights that many states will have state laws allowing abortion again - just like pre-Roe v. Wade. I don’t have a cite, but my understanding had been that something like 30% of states had abortion laws on the books allowing abortion at the time of Roe v. Wade, and that number would have been higher, but the process of litigating Roe v. Wade made many groups that might have pushed for pro-abortion laws on the state level decide to wait for the Supreme Court’s decision. I’m not trying to pretend that having Roe v. Wade won’t be a setback if one is in favor of abortion rights - but it’s also not going to be a slamming of the door, either. As someone who doesn’t feel comfortable with the idea of abortion I wish that those who are against it would focus more on education and alternatives rather than trying to fight a pointless legal battle, since even a victory at the Supreme Court will not have the effect of making abortion illegal nationwide. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/34 "2004-09-07T15:35:41Z")
Just to pile on one half of this thread’s premise, check out yesterday’s Donkey Rising blog entry: > [@](#): > > Originally posted by **[Donkey Rising](http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/)**: > \*In terms of whether the Republican convention made voters more or less likely to vote for Bush–the real point of the convention after all–there were almost as many saying the convention made them less likely to vote for Bush (38 percent) as said it made them more likely (41 percent). > > This is actually quite a poor performance. The Democratic convention this year had a substantially better 44 percent more likely/30 percent less likely split. In fact, looking back to 1984, which is as far back as Gallup supplies data, no candidate has ever had a more likely to vote for/less likely to vote for split even close to as bad as Bush’s this year. (Emphasis in original)\* Bush is a long, **long** way from sewing this one up. Keep your head on for christ’s sake. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/35 "2004-09-07T15:40:15Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > If the polls on election day show Bush with an insurmountable lead in North Carolina, that’s when I’ll consider casting my vote for a third-party candidate. Trouble is, Nader’s not campaigning on the issues this year, so he can’t get my vote; the Libertarian party presents what I consider a spurious version of liberty, and the Socialist parties are all kinda whacko. There’s no real good third-party candidate this year that I know of. > > Daniel Even if Bush is going to win your state, a vote for Kerry still counts in the national totals. If Bush was to win a second term on electoral votes, it might quell his notion of a mandate if he was again to finish second in the popular vote. Therefore every vote against Bush counts, no matter what state you’re in. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/36 "2004-09-07T15:52:15Z")
It’s still an [electoral dead heat](http://electoral-vote.com/) and we still have the debates coming up. There were also seven Marines killed in Iraq yesterday, as well as a surreptitious hike in Medicare premiums of a record 17% which is going to kill Bush with seniors in Forida. Not only that but Bush is a bout to get a taste of his own medicine from a new [Kitty Kelly book](http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/allnews/tm_objectid=14609301&method=full&siteid=50143&headline=bush--took-cocaine-at-camp-david--name_page.html) which alleges that W snorted coke at Camp David while his daddy was prez. The bounce for Bush was a result of the Swift Boat smear campaign. It sounds like Bush is actually getting a pretty minimal bounce from the convention (maybe two points). This is still Kerry’s election to lose. People hate Bush. It’s not like Clinton-Dole in '96. It’s going to be a close election and I’m still confident that Kerry can win. A vote for a third party is still a vote for Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/37 "2004-09-07T15:58:38Z")
For the sake of the question, may we proceed in at least a subjunctive mode that _were_ Kerry statistically unlikely to win (just like the Greens), _would_ voting for a third party still be a “waste” to people who believe it is wasted if the race is close? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/38 "2004-09-07T16:04:20Z")
**Lib** : Seems like your foray into the Democratic party was short lived. Are you looking for an excuse to vote Libertarian? 🙂 Let’s not get too excited about polls taken over Labor Day weekend. Give it some time and see where the numbers really settle out. Kerry is now coming out strongly against the Iraq War, and that might just push him back into the lead. It’s a long wrong 'til November, and you know what they say about “nobody ever won if thy had such-and-such poll numbers at such-and-such time”? The answer is “until somebody does”. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/39 "2004-09-07T16:14:47Z")
Foray into the Democratic Party? I’m afraid you misunderstood. I am voting for Kerry while holding my nose and hiding my shame. I’m still going to hang here for a bit on the off-chance that someone might address the question. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464/40 "2004-09-07T16:14:51Z")
If the result of the election is a foregone conclusion then I don’t think third party votes are wasted. I just don’t think this particular election has reached that point, nor do I think it’s likely to. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/now-that-kerry-likely-wont-win-is-third-party-voting-still-a-waste/263464.md?page=3)