# Nuclear attack eminent; do you retaliate? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 31, 2016, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158 "2016-05-31T11:01:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/41 "2016-05-31T19:48:40Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Absolutely not. At most, I might hit their silos, but there’s no good to be done and considerable evil in hitting their cities. And even hitting their silos is likely to do more harm than good. > Possibly. But if they “don’t get away with it”, then we _definitely_ won’t be the last to suffer the same fate. And as an aside, you’re about the last person I would have expected to give that response. > > If the Cold War taught us anything, it’s that MAD does not work. In fact, the only reason any of us are still here is because it doesn’t. You have that backward. MAD insured no nation was reckless enough to launch a first strike. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/42 "2016-05-31T19:50:22Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > Civilian casualties are never acceptable. I don’t push the button. But American civilian casualties are? ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/43 "2016-05-31T19:52:40Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Absolutely not. At most, I might hit their silos, but there’s no good to be done and considerable evil in hitting their cities. And even hitting their silos is likely to do more harm than good. Well, their silos are empty now, anyway, since they just launched their nukes at the US, so even that wouldn’t make much difference. > [@](#): > > If the Cold War taught us anything, it’s that MAD does not work. In fact, the only reason any of us are still here is because it doesn’t. Um, how do you figure that? Anyway, I voted “don’t nuke.” Russia doesn’t survive eliminating the US. Every other nation on Earth is going to unite to crush them after a unprovoked nuclear holocaust - and Russia isn’t going to be able to do anything about it, because they’ve just exhausted their nuke arsenal murdering North America. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/44 "2016-05-31T19:53:21Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > But American civilian casualties are? I’m assuming that, in addition to not nuking Russia, **boffking** would also not nuke America. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/45 "2016-05-31T19:55:06Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Doggone, every once in a while we totally agree! It’s so nice when that happens. Good point about the legacy. If I’m president, I don’t want future historians putting my name on the biggest mass murderer list right next to Putin. Plus, for those who believe, there’s a guy at the pearly gates who might take a dim view of nuking back and send me on the down escalator. Gee, FDR must be roasting in hell for the civilian bombings in WW2 that specifically targeted depopulating cities. And litd not even imagine where Truman is. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/46 "2016-05-31T20:01:05Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > I’m assuming that, in addition to not nuking Russia, **boffking** would also not nuke America. So he does nothing after being nuked? Our NATO allies might not be so reticent to nuke the Russians. Of course, Putin would have also nuked NATO nations too. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/47 "2016-05-31T20:07:05Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > So he does nothing after being nuked? Our NATO allies might not be so reticent to nuke the Russians. Maybe not, but the question was, “What do you do?” not “What do your allies do?” > [@](#): > > Of course, Putin would have also nuked NATO nations too. Nothing in the OP about Russia nuking NATO, just the US. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/48 "2016-05-31T20:11:21Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Maybe not, but the question was, “What do you do?” not “What do your allies do?” > > Nothing in the OP about Russia nuking NATO, just the US. The OP is flawed. A more interesting question is “If you had incontrovertible evidence that the Russians were about to launch a nuclear first strike, would you launch first to destroy their ICBM silos”? ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/49 "2016-05-31T20:17:15Z")
I believe we have found a political solution. ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/50 "2016-05-31T21:29:55Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > But American civilian casualties are? If we do nuke Russia, will it bring back the Americans who died? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/51 "2016-05-31T22:06:48Z")
First of all, I’ll reiterate as I have in many prior threads that the strategic theory of Assured Destruction (the “Mutual” portion was added by critics such as Herman Kahn to make the infamous acronym) requires specific prerequisites that are unlikely to ever exist in the real world (perfect information about opposing capabilities, assurance of early warning systems, effective parity of offensive and defense systems, and most critically, rational actors), and if either party initiates a launch the theory has by definition failed, as it the entire function is deterrence. Practialy speaking, no nation has instituted Assured Destruction, and game theory simulations of AD show that it is an unstable equilibrium in the face of determined challenge as well as prone to failure due to misinformation such as the kind we experienced during the Cuban Missile Crisis (in which nuclear exchange was averted not because of any deterrence theory but because a minor cabinet member who had previously been an ambassador to the Soviet Union advised President Kennedy to ignore the second, more aggressive demands and respond with a conciliatory response). In a true AD scenario, the choices listed by the o.p. simply shouldn’t exist; the response to an attack has to be overwhelming and catastrophic counterattack, period; hence, Kahn’s satirical “Doomsday Device” that was featured as the central plot point in _Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Love the Bomb_. Second, while submarined-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are intended to be survivable counterstrike weapons, the fact is that our ferrous-hulled submarines are readily trackable to certain hypothetical satellite systems and are likely not nearly as safe as widely believed. (Whether those systems from the Soviet era did or still exist, and whether Russia can field sufficient attack submarines to preempitvely destroy or disable boomers is another question.). Third, while responding to an attack with a comprehensive counterstrike may satisfy a desire for vengence, targetted attacks on military and industrial infrastructure while leaving the population as undamaged as possible makes more sense from both a political and humanistic standpoint. Both nations will likely be pariahs on the world stage for employing nuclear weapons in such a fashion and the resulting impact to global economy and environment, but being able to demonstrate that the counterattack was as minimally damaging as possible will at least go some distance to preserving whatever goodwill may still exist after we’ve laid waste to vast swaths of land mass and sent radioactive material into the atmosphere to be deposited wherever it shall fall. Anyone who selects the “I LOVE BARRY MANILOW” option should be rounded up and put into a re-education camp immediately for the sake of all that is good and holy. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/52 "2016-05-31T22:15:10Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > If we do nuke Russia, will it bring back the Americans who died? That’s the most irrelevant question in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/53 "2016-05-31T22:20:03Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > No, I wouldn’t launch. What would be the point? If we are 85% destroyed, we have lost anyway, and nuking a bunch of Russkis isn’t going to help anything. > > The notion of deterring the next time doesn’t make any sense. Nuking the US is going to cause the world economy to collapse. Kind of a Pyrrhic victory for Putin. Not to mention that the Chinese and India and all of Europe and Japan and Canada and Mexico are going to be more than mildly peeved. > > Of course, if (God forbid) I was ever running for President, I would swear up and down that I _would_ nuke Russian in retaliation. Deterrence is deterrence, after all. But when it came down to a choice between having 250 million Americans die, and have 250 million Americans die plus 250 million Russians, I pick the option where fewer people die. > > Besides, if I am going to die, what legacy do I want to leave behind me? The legacy of pointless revenge, that achieves nothing? Or the legacy that I did what I could to spare the lives even of my enemies? > > Regards, > Shodan Great post. Said it much better than I could. Alas, I must be pedantic a bit…there aren’t 250 million Russians. Russia’s population is a little over half that. ---
**Author:** ![standingwave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@standingwave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/standingwave)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/54 "2016-05-31T22:51:43Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > [eminent](https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=define%3Aeminent): 1) famous and respected within a particular sphere or profession 2) used to emphasize the presence of a positive quality > > [imminent](https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=define:imminent): about to happen > > [comparison](https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/eminent-imminent/) between eminent and imminent > > – your friendly grammar Nazi Frasier: I’m Dr. Frasier Crane, and this is my brother, Dr. Niles Crane, the eminent psychiatrist. Niles: My brother is too kind. He was already eminent when my eminence was merely imminent. [![](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/e-lFIlLIESw/hqdefault.jpg "Frasier - Eminent, eminence, imminent") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-lFIlLIESw) ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/55 "2016-06-01T03:29:17Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Barry Manilow them back into the stone age. Or the heck with the Geneva Convention ----- let’s Wayne Newton the bastids! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/56 "2016-06-01T07:00:01Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > [eminent](https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=define%3Aeminent): 1) famous and respected within a particular sphere or profession 2) used to emphasize the presence of a positive quality > > [imminent](https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=define:imminent): about to happen > > [comparison](https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/eminent-imminent/) between eminent and imminent > > – your friendly grammar Nazi A comparison between eminent and imminent by a prominent deponent was bound to be prominent. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/57 "2016-06-01T07:56:08Z")
Till they glow. ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/58 "2016-06-01T10:12:42Z")
Retaliation hasn’t helped the US very often. It just makes things worse. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/59 "2016-06-01T13:07:17Z")
I’m still waiting for \*\*Chronos \*\*to explain why the fact we are still alive today is proof that MAD does not work. I’m not being sarcastic, I genuinely do not understand how one statement is derived from the other. ---
**Author:** ![joyfool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/df788c/32.png) [@joyfool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joyfool)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158/60 "2016-06-01T14:11:49Z")
Maybe he meant the _threat_ of MAD is the only thing that works. Once it’s a done deal, it’s pointless (and a failure) from the other side. And sign me up for No Genocide. I can’t imagine whatever resultant fallout would make a damn bit of difference to what’s left. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-attack-eminent-do-you-retaliate/756158.md?page=4)