# Nuclear deal with Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 14, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128 "2015-07-14T11:37:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/261 "2015-07-19T15:48:32Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > That doesn’t follow logically. It could only be a recognition that they might need it. It could be a strategic deterrent, in that the stronger a nation’s military, the more likely they won’t actually have to use it. Or a way to get them to STFU. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/262 "2015-07-19T15:51:32Z")
As for the Sunni Arabs, [many of them stand to benefit as well, all anti-Shi’ite bluster notwithstanding](http://www.juancole.com/2015/07/winners-greater-middle.html): > [@](#): > > Egypt will benefit, even if it would be impolitic for its leaders to admit it, given the pledges of billions of dollars in aid Cairo has gathered up from Saudi Arabia, which opposes the deal. Egyptian transportation costs will fall. Shipped goods will be cheaper and there could be increased traffic in the Suez Canal, which Egypt is widening to allow two-way traffic. Egypt collects tolls on goods going through the canal, so this income should increase. > > Dubai will benefit, because its banks do a lot of business on behalf of Iranian firms. Its import-export merchants will recover access to the Iranian market. > > Morocco, another populous country that lacks its own hydrocarbons, will benefit from lower petroleum prices. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/263 "2015-07-19T16:00:58Z")
… And speaking as someone who has flown domestic in Iran, I’ll add that I’m _extremely_ thrilled about the news that [Iran is now free to finally replace its ancient fleet of rusting, beat-up civilian aircraft](http://globalnews.ca/news/2119020/nuclear-deal-has-companies-eyeing-iranian-opportunities-anew/) - those things were fucking _scary_! :eek: > [@](#): > > The latest agreement allows for licenses on the sale of commercial aircraft, and Transportation Minister Abbas Akhoundi has said his country is prepared to spend about $20 billion to purchase some 400 aircraft over the coming decade. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/264 "2015-07-19T16:15:00Z")
“Senator Throckmorton? Boeing on line one, Lockheed on line two…” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/265 "2015-07-19T16:36:23Z")
Again, a question for the experts: I hear a lot about how the lifting of the conventional arms embargo is something that should not have been included since those sanctions were not put in place because of Iran’s nuclear program. Any truth to that claim? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/266 "2015-07-19T16:42:16Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > In favour of the deal, we have not only - as already mentioned in this thread - the P5+1, all NATO countries AFAIK (including the Turks), and both the Iraqi government, the country’s Kurdish region, and, of course, the anti-ISIS Iraqi Shi’ites. > > Who else is psyched? > > India, the world’s biggest democracy, [is thrilled about the trade opportunities](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-33547061). So is its archenemy, Pakistan, [which is looking forward to importing huge amounts of natural gas](http://www.voanews.com/content/pakistan-hopes-to-benefit-from-iran-nuclear-deal-with-chinese-help/2864001.html). Japan - third biggest economy in the world - [also supports the deal](http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/04/23/national/politics-diplomacy/japans-ties-iran-grow-final-nuclear-deal-abe-says/#.VavDmxOqqkp): > > Also in favour? [Pope Francis.](http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/vatican-applauds-nuclear-deal-calls-for-commitment-to-make-it-bear-fruit-11947/) And if the leaders of Iran had backed off from their pledge to destroy Israel, just a bit, then I’d be happy with that. But personally, all I can see here is a country that’s about to get a lot richer, a lot more popular and a lot more powerful, while still spitting on the ground whenever it speaks my country’s name. I’m sure the Iranian people are perfectly decent folk, but their leaders are still theocrats, and they still won’t even recognize my country’s existence, and have given no indications that they ever will in the future. And in the meantime, some of that money is going to end up buying missiles that will be pointed at my house. I get it. The deal with Iran serves America’s interests, and America’s interests should be America’s top priority. But can’t you see our side of it? It’s not just idiots like Bibi Netanyahu who oppose the deal - its most Israelis. And based on our own interests (which are \*our \*top priority), we’re pretty justified, don’t you think? Our neighborhood has just gotten a lot less friendly. (And for the record - I trust most Republicans about as far as I can throw them. Bibi’s a fool if he thinks he can block the deal in Congress. Not that he should be meddling in internal American politics anyway, the\* fucking moron\*). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/267 "2015-07-19T17:23:48Z")
Suppose then that the fondest dreams of evil men are realized, and we have war. We crush Iran at huge expense in innocent lives and treasure, we occupy Iran and install a government that totally satisfies Bibi’s demands. How long would that last, after the last boot leaves Iranian soil? After securing, once again, the bitter enmity of the Iranian people, how long before the next government arises, even more hateful than the previous? If Iran is no longer in a position to support Hamas and Hezbollah, will they wither and disappear? If they don’t have the resources to launch a thousand crude missiles over the borders into Israel, but say only ten or fifteen, will Bibi and like minded Israelis say “Well, its only ten, we can live with that.” Or is it more likely that we find that another ME regime must be neutralized, Egypt maybe, or Syria, or the Saudis. Is it even possible, remotely possible, to overturn every regime hostile to Israel? And keep governments in place that have no support from their people. Or can we crush the people themselves, so that they no longer harbor any hostility, but only cringing fear? Has that ever worked? Could we live with ourselves if it did? Throughout our sad history, power has favored the warriors and warriors love power. The way to peace is hard, bitterly hard, but it comes on the day that someone takes a blow, and does not answer it. Who will that be, if not the smartest and most civilized nation in the ME? Israel is our only hope, and Bibi is her leader. Alas. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/268 "2015-07-19T17:33:37Z")
I’m not entirely sure I 'm following your prose there, **Luci** , but I never advocated an American invasion of Iran, nor am I in favor of any sort of forced regime change. For one, it’s our war to fight, not yours. For another, no offence, but you guys _really suck_ at that sort of thing. I mean, have you been following things for the past 14 years? (Incidentally, your post is an example of another reason why I hate that fucking piece of shit Bibi. He’s given everyone in the world a perfect excuse to ignore anything any Israeli says, even stuff that makes sense). ---
**Author:** ![TennisMenace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@TennisMenace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TennisMenace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/269 "2015-07-19T17:57:24Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Announced today – discuss it here. > > I’m pleased that it happened, based on the details that have been released so far. From what I understand military sites can be inspected but not with no warning – this is certainly far from ideal, but far better in my mind than no deal (which would obviously have no inspections). > > I don’t know if this is the absolute 100% best deal we could have gotten. I do believe that getting a deal gives us the best chance of preventing Iran from nuclear weapons – better than continuing sanctions or military strikes (because I believe that any country that really, really wants nukes is going to get them, regardless of sanctions or military strikes). > > So I’m cautiously pleased, while awaiting the full details of the deal. I hope you are right. The answer I want to know more is how does Israel feel about the deal? ---
**Author:** ![TennisMenace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@TennisMenace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TennisMenace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/270 "2015-07-19T18:14:16Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > And if the leaders of Iran had backed off from their pledge to destroy Israel, just a bit, then I’d be happy with that. But personally, all I can see here is a country that’s about to get a lot richer, a lot more popular and a lot more powerful, while still spitting on the ground whenever it speaks my country’s name. I’m sure the Iranian people are perfectly decent folk, but their leaders are still theocrats, and they still won’t even recognize my country’s existence, and have given no indications that they ever will in the future. And in the meantime, some of that money is going to end up buying missiles that will be pointed at my house. > > I get it. The deal with Iran serves America’s interests, and America’s interests should be America’s top priority. But can’t you see our side of it? It’s not just idiots like Bibi Netanyahu who oppose the deal - its most Israelis. And based on our own interests (which are \*our \*top priority), we’re pretty justified, don’t you think? > > Our neighborhood has just gotten a lot less friendly. > (And for the record - I trust most Republicans about as far as I can throw them. Bibi’s a fool if he thinks he can block the deal in Congress. Not that he should be meddling in internal American politics anyway, the\* fucking moron\*). Your post saddens me greatly, but my gut tells me you are probably right- this deal cannot possibly help Israel. I’m concerned about Israel’s well being almost as much as I am concerned about America’s. Iran has been very clear in their words- they want both Israel and USA destroyed. They will not lose that thought. We should all be concerned as we watch them fatten their wallets and their world influence. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/271 "2015-07-19T18:56:30Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I get it. The deal with Iran serves America’s interests, and America’s interests should be America’s top priority. But can’t you see our side of it? It’s not just idiots like Bibi Netanyahu who oppose the deal - its most Israelis. And based on our own interests (which are \*our \*top priority), we’re pretty justified, don’t you think? I think I get it – you’re saying that this deal will help Iran get more prosperous, more powerful, and more influential. I think that’s probably true, and I can understand how that might be a bad thing. It really might be a bad thing… but the thing is, it seems to me that short of full-scale-invasion, this is happening no matter what, deal or no deal. US sanctions on their own aren’t that important if other countries lift theirs – and if this deal doesn’t go through, then Iran will get most of its sanctions lifted while having no delays and no mechanisms to stop their acquisition of nukes, if desired. So I think I get it, but I don’t think I understand what feasible real-world series of events could happen, starting at this moment in time, that are better than this deal getting signed, which at the very least significantly delays Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Can you enlighten me? What possible series of events after this deal falling apart would be better for Israel, considering that most international sanctions are almost certain to be lifted no matter what? ---
**Author:** ![TennisMenace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@TennisMenace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TennisMenace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/272 "2015-07-19T19:13:26Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > This happened to me once but with urinals at an airport. The bathroom was empty and the guy chose the urinal right next to me. Its not like I had the urinal closest to the door, I was about 4 or 5 urinals in and the guy took the one right next to me, he had to walk by 3 other urinals to get to the one next to me (and he could have gone down a few more urinals because there were probably a dozen or more urinals along the wall. I thought it might have been a cultural thing I was unaware of . :o. Thanks for this post. It really put a smile on my face. Laughter is a great medicine. FYI, I think I have a phobia to public urinals. I can’t stand to be next to someone either, and I especially dislike someone sitting on the john while I’m at the urinal. Yikes!!! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/273 "2015-07-19T20:01:03Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I’m not entirely sure I 'm following your prose there, **Luci** , but I never advocated an American invasion of Iran… By no means am I accusing you of harboring such notions, I think you and I are fairly close to being of similar mind. But the line has been drawn, even by Obama: a deal, or war. Which brings us to the practical difficulty in threatening people who believe that God is on their side, that Allah will rush to their defense, for what is the power of the Great Satan next to Him? Is there another option, something I have yet to hear of? Please, friend, make my day, let it fall upon my aching and grateful ears, tell me about it. I do not have rainbows and sunshine to offer, only weighing bitter truth against worse. Prove me wrong, gladden my heart, and I will thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/274 "2015-07-19T20:05:57Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think I get it – you’re saying that this deal will help Iran get more prosperous, more powerful, and more influential. I think that’s probably true, and I can understand how that might be a bad thing. It really might be a bad thing… but the thing is, it seems to me that short of full-scale-invasion, this is happening no matter what, deal or no deal. US sanctions on their own aren’t that important if other countries lift theirs – and if this deal doesn’t go through, then Iran will get most of its sanctions lifted while having no delays and no mechanisms to stop their acquisition of nukes, if desired. > > So I think I get it, but I don’t think I understand what feasible real-world series of events could happen, starting at this moment in time, that are better than this deal getting signed, which at the very least significantly delays Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. > > Can you enlighten me? What possible series of events after this deal falling apart would be better for Israel, considering that most international sanctions are almost certain to be lifted no matter what? I honestly don’t know. I guess that’s why I’m mostly angry at my own government - it was their job to try to get a deal that would be better for Israel, that would help contain Iran, but all they could do is say _NO - NO - NO_. No creativity, no initiative, just object, scorch the earth and burn bridges. And we re-elected these morons. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/275 "2015-07-19T20:08:13Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > By no means am I accusing you of harboring such notions, I think you and I are fairly close to being of similar mind. But the line has been drawn, even by Obama: a deal, or war. Is that a _red_ line that was drawn? Personally, I call bullshit on Obama’s false dichotomy. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/276 "2015-07-19T20:09:50Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is that a _red_ line that was drawn? > > Personally, I call bullshit on Obama’s false dichotomy. I took it as “if we want to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, it’s this or war”, not that it’s the deal or war no matter what. I also disagree with Obama, but for a different reason – I don’t think war is likely to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I think it might make it more likely. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/277 "2015-07-19T20:16:04Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I took it as “if we want to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, it’s this or war”, not that it’s the deal or war no matter what. I also disagree with Obama, but for a different reason – I don’t think war is likely to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I think it might make it more likely. I’m unsure why you say you disagree for a different reason. I agree that war would make nukes more likely. But I don’t think the war option was ever on the table to begin with. Obama has no stomach for war. And that’s a good thing! And by “war”, I’m thinking more than air strikes. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/278 "2015-07-19T20:21:04Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m unsure why you say you disagree for a different reason. I agree that war would make nukes more likely. But I don’t think the war option was ever on the table to begin with. Obama has no stomach for war. And that’s a good thing! > > And by “war”, I’m thinking more than air strikes. I took your disagreement to mean you thought Obama was saying “if this deal doesn’t happen we must go to war”, which is different then the way I took it. But I think we mostly agree anyway – I also think (and hope) that any war talk was a bluff. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/279 "2015-07-19T20:26:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I took your disagreement to mean you thought Obama was saying “if this deal doesn’t happen we must go to war”, which is different then the way I took it. But I think we mostly agree anyway – I also think (and hope) that any war talk was a bluff. I think Obama is trying to have it both ways. Saying “it’s either this or war” in the sense you were thinking I meant, but that war was never actually an option. The bargaining chip we had was sanctions, and that wasn’t much of a chip to bargain with since we had Russia and China at the table with us. Does anyone here really believe that Obama would have gone to war with Iran if no deal was struck? ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/280 "2015-07-19T20:32:45Z")
A nuclear-armed but poorer, more isolated Iran may be more consistent with Israeli security interests than a richer, less isolated (but non-nuclear) Iran. In that sense–but only in that sense–I can understand Israeli opposition to the deal. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=15)