# Nuclear deal with Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 14, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128 "2015-07-14T11:37:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/281 "2015-07-19T20:37:00Z")
> [@Donald\_Rump](#): > > A nuclear-armed but poorer, more isolated Iran may be more consistent with Israeli security interests than a richer, less isolated (but non-nuclear) Iran. In that sense–but only in that sense–I can understand Israeli opposition to the deal. I suppose, but it doesn’t seem likely that a non-deal Iran would be much poorer or more isolated without this deal. It seems likely to me that without the deal, most of the sanctions would be dropped by the international community anyway. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/282 "2015-07-19T20:38:00Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I honestly don’t know. > > I guess that’s why I’m mostly angry at my own government - it was their job to try to get a deal that would be better for Israel, that would help contain Iran, but all they could do is say _NO - NO - NO_. No creativity, no initiative, just object, scorch the earth and burn bridges. And we re-elected these morons. Thanks very much for sharing, by the way. I find your perspective very interesting and enlightening. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/283 "2015-07-20T00:52:38Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > The deal with Iran serves America’s interests And also China’s, and Russia’s, and France’s, and Germany’s, and India’s, and Pakistan’s, [and also Spain’s, and Switzerland’s, and South Korea’s](http://globalnews.ca/news/2119020/nuclear-deal-has-companies-eyeing-iranian-opportunities-anew/), - etc., etc. Let’s get real here. Iran - a country with an army the size of Norway’s, with no air force to speak of, and now (thanks to this deal) no chance of getting a nuclear weapon anytime soon - is no real threat to Israel, a country with probably the finest pound-for-pound army and air force in the world, and dozens if not hundreds of nuclear weapons, not to mention the backing of the United States, far and away the mightiest country in the world. With continued sanctions off the table, and warfare temporarily unlikely, it seems Israel’s best bet at this point would be diplomacy. I for one can imagine a scenario where Israel’s next Prime Minister makes a Nixon-goes-to-China move, and pulls off a détente with Tehran – [such things have happened before](https://books.google.se/books?id=dLfddQVmof4C&pg=PA127&source=gbs_toc_r&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false), even in the Khomeinist era, and [may well happen again](http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/feb/20/why-cant-iran-and-israel-be-friends). ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/284 "2015-07-20T01:16:26Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > “Senator Throckmorton? Boeing on line one, Lockheed on line two…” I get your point, but when’s the last time you even stepped onto a Lockheed-Martin plane as a civilian? For me, it was probably an airshow where they had things like the C-130 and C-5 open so you could walk through. The entire civilian market for big iron in the West is Boeing and Airbus. This does bring up the interesting question, what effect will this have on such trade? I’m sure the US, the EU countries, and the Russians would all like to get a piece of it with Boeing, Airbus, and UAC. Will we start to see trade wars between the major powers with the re-opening of Iran? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/285 "2015-07-20T01:31:29Z")
Step one, open their markets. Two, corrupt their youth. Three, of course, is profit! Not as good as peace but a damned sight better than war. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/286 "2015-07-20T03:18:10Z")
The Fix is keeping a whip count for the deal’s prospects in the Senate: > **[President Obama’s Iran deal nears a major symbolic victory](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/14/whip-count-where-the-senate-stands-on-the-iran-deal/)** > > Bookmark this. As of right now, it could still be derailed. 27 for, 58 against, 15 unknown. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/287 "2015-07-20T03:49:21Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > And also China’s, and Russia’s, and France’s, and Germany’s, and India’s, and Pakistan’s, [and also Spain’s, and Switzerland’s, and South Korea’s](http://globalnews.ca/news/2119020/nuclear-deal-has-companies-eyeing-iranian-opportunities-anew/), - etc., etc. > > Let’s get real here. Iran - a country with an army the size of Norway’s, with no air force to speak of, and now (thanks to this deal) no chance of getting a nuclear weapon anytime soon - is no real threat to Israel, a country with probably the finest pound-for-pound army and air force in the world, and dozens if not hundreds of nuclear weapons, not to mention the backing of the United States, far and away the mightiest country in the world. > > With continued sanctions off the table, and warfare temporarily unlikely, it seems Israel’s best bet at this point would be diplomacy. I for one can imagine a scenario where Israel’s next Prime Minister makes a Nixon-goes-to-China move, and pulls off a détente with Tehran – [such things have happened before](https://books.google.se/books?id=dLfddQVmof4C&pg=PA127&source=gbs_toc_r&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false), even in the Khomeinist era, and [may well happen again](http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/feb/20/why-cant-iran-and-israel-be-friends). I think you make excellent points, and looking things up I see that Israel spends about 2x the amount Iran does on the military. And, as you note, it has the backing of the US. But… Iran’s military is the size of Norway’s? Iran has about 10x the population, so that’s hard to imagine. What are you basing that on? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/288 "2015-07-20T04:46:48Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > But… Iran’s military is the size of Norway’s? Iran has about 10x the population, so that’s hard to imagine. What are you basing that on? All I can think is that they have similar budgets. But it looks to me like Iran has more numbers at every level, though I am sure Norway has more modern equipment in general. > **[Comparison of Norway and Iran Military Strengths (2024)](https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?form=form&country1=norway&country2=iran&Submit=COMPARE)** > > Comparison of two world military powers in side-by-side format. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/289 "2015-07-20T07:37:18Z")
My bad. Iran’s _military budget_ is on par with Norway; its army is indeed larger. My mistake was based on misremembering [this line from Juan Cole](http://www.juancole.com/2015/07/netanyahu-trying-world.html): > [@](#): > > [Iran] has a small military budget, about $10 bn., on the order of that of Norway or Singapore. It has no air force to speak of. The US military budget is roughly 80 times that of Iran. Though the point stands, I do apologise for the mistake. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/290 "2015-07-20T13:19:01Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > All I can think is that they have similar budgets. But it looks to me like Iran has more numbers at every level, though I am sure Norway has more modern equipment in general. > > [Comparison of Norway and Iran Military Strengths (2024)](http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&country1=norway&country2=iran&Submit=COMPARE) > [@Steken](#): > > My bad. > > Iran’s _military budget_ is on par with Norway; its army is indeed larger. > > My mistake was based on misremembering [this line from Juan Cole](http://www.juancole.com/2015/07/netanyahu-trying-world.html): > > Though the point stands, I do apologise for the mistake. OK, thanks. But that still puts things in a perspective that, I think, few Americans realize. I suspect your average American thinks Iran spend much, much more on the military than they do. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/291 "2015-07-20T13:24:24Z")
You have to include the funding for their proxies that fight all over the world. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/292 "2015-07-20T13:36:19Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > OK, thanks. But that still puts things in a perspective that, I think, few Americans realize. I suspect your average American thinks Iran spend much, much more on the military than they do. In fairness, there wasn’t much point in spending lots on their military in recent times because they had a very limited number of suppliers. Lifting restrictions on arms sales to Iran will make their rials go farther, and obviously they’ll have more money to spend now. Still, I remain in favor of the deal. Sending countries to Coventry just doesn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/293 "2015-07-20T13:43:35Z")
Pat Buchanan wrote a very good analysis of the deal. basically, the USA would suffer extreme isolation, should Congress reject it. For that reason alone, it is better to approve the treaty. Iran would get no major advantage by resuming bomb grade enrichment. I do think that engaging Iran might be the way to get them to actively fight ISIS (and spare us the need to get involved). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/294 "2015-07-20T13:50:29Z")
I hope you guys realize that without Western involvement a genocide against whichever side loses in that region is a very real possibility. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/295 "2015-07-20T13:56:16Z")
And that threat would otherwise be less…how? Do we control any of the principal antagonists here? We say “Don’t do that!” and they won’t? And perhaps you might give us a bit more as to what the word “involved” means? In the case of ham and eggs, the chicken is “involved” but the pig is “committed”. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/296 "2015-07-20T13:57:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I hope you guys realize that without Western involvement a genocide against whichever side loses in that region is a very real possibility. What does this have to do with the nuclear deal with Iran? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/297 "2015-07-20T13:59:15Z")
What some posters here have said about Iran fighting ISIS. If Iran puts enough Shiite fighters in the Sunni areas of Iraq to defeat ISIS, things are going to get very bad for the Sunnis in the wake of that victory. Whereas if we drove them out that would not be the case. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/298 "2015-07-20T13:59:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I hope you guys realize that without Western involvement a genocide against whichever side loses in that region is a very real possibility. It’s a very real possibility _with_ Western involvement, too. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/299 "2015-07-20T14:03:24Z")
It’s far more real if the Iranians send thousands of angry Shiites into Sunni Arab Iraq to fight. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/300 "2015-07-20T14:17:12Z")
And if they just send them into the Shiite areas to keep ISIS out? Then what? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=16)