# Nuclear deal with Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 14, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128 "2015-07-14T11:37:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/341 "2015-07-20T18:48:40Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > That’s not a whole-blooded indorsement of the deal though - what he’s saying, if I read it correctly, is that now that the deal is here Israel must support it, because if the US rejects it now, the sanctions will deteriorate and Iran will be free to pursue its nukes unhampered. That’s close to my reading as well. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/342 "2015-07-20T18:50:31Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > 10% is higher than I thought, considering some of the earlier posts. Thanks for the link. You have to remember that 20% of those polled were Arab citizens of Israel, quite a few of whom would heartily support anything detrimental to the state. So 10% is amazingly low. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/343 "2015-07-20T18:50:43Z")
This one sentence gives me pause. > [@](#): > > …Channel 10 did not provide the sample size or margin of error… Why not? Pretty standard operating procedure with polls, yes? > [@](#): > > …So 10% is amazingly low. … Yes. Quite so. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/344 "2015-07-20T18:55:42Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > That’s close to my reading as well. And he makes a very good point. At this point in time, there is no reason to oppose the deal, because any successful opposition in the US will result in a worse outcome than going through with the deal. There is no way to turn back the clock and make a different deal. Buchanan makes a similar point and they are both, I think, right. However, that would be true whether the deal is basically good or bad. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/345 "2015-07-20T20:20:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You have to include the funding for their proxies that fight all over the world. “All over the world?” North America? South America? India, Burma, Laos? Australia and New Zealand? Austria and Hungary and Russia? And at sea, with a blue-water navy? Don’t exaggerate; it ends up undermining your legitimate points. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/346 "2015-07-20T20:29:10Z")
Well, he isn’t that far off, unfortunately. > **[1992 attack on Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_attack_on_Israeli_embassy_in_Buenos_Aires)** > > The attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires was a suicide bombing attack on the building of the Israeli embassy of Argentina, located in Buenos Aires, which was carried out on 17 March 1992. 29 civilians were killed in the attack and 242 additional civilians were injured. > On 17 March 1992, at 2:42 pm (UTC−3), a pick-up truck driven by a suicide bomber and loaded with explosives smashed into the front of the Israeli Embassy located on the corner of Arroyo and Suipacha, and detonated. The... > **[2011 alleged Iran assassination plot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_alleged_Iran_assassination_plot)** > > On 11 October 2011, United States officials alleged there was a plot tied to the Iranian government to assassinate Saudi ambassador Adel al-Jubeir in the United States. The plot was referred to as the "Iran assassination plot" or the "Iran terror plot" in the media, while the Federal Bureau of Investigation named the case "Operation Red Coalition". Iranian nationals Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri were charged on 11 October 2011 in federal court in New York with plotting to assassinate It ... > **[2012 Bangkok bombings](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Bangkok_bombings)** > > The 2012 Bangkok bombings were a series of explosions that occurred in Bangkok, Thailand on 14 February 2012, injuring five people. Thai authorities said that the bombings were a botched attempt by Iranian nationals to assassinate Israeli diplomats. Several Iranians were arrested and charged for the attacks, one of whom was badly injured. > The blasts occurred a day after attacks on Israeli diplomats in Tbilisi, Georgia and New Delhi, India. Israel said that the Iranian government was behind the b... You might not want to be so incredulous, it ends up backfiring when my frequent debate opponent actually gets something totally wrong. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/347 "2015-07-20T21:03:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I hope you guys realize that without Western involvement a genocide against whichever side loses in that region is a very real possibility. There is certainly a risk of victorious Shi’ite militias massacring Sunni civilians. However, that would be true even with Western armies involved, and what’s more: Increased Iranian involvement would most likely _decrease_ the risk of that happening. The country - which from Khomeini forward has urged Sunni-Shia unity - would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from such atrocities. Now more than ever, it would behoove Iran to act like - and be seen as - one of the region’s calm, cool-headed grown-ups. Pacifying Iraq’s rebellious Sunnis with as little bloodshed as possible would go a long way towards cementing such a reputation. Then - arguably just as importantly - there are the theological underpinnings. See, while the ISIS types advocate a genocidal, eliminationist policy towards the world’s Shi’ites, not a single one of Iran’s religious leaders advocates a genocidal, eliminationist policy towards the world’s Sunnis - quite the opposite. The same is, of course, true for Iraq’s - and the world’s - leading Shi’ite authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, himself an Iranian by birth. In February of 2015, [the Grand Ayatollah issued the following statement](http://www.sistani.org/english/archive/25036/), going out of his way to remind the overwhelmingly Shi’ite volunteers to abide by the rules of war: > [@](#): > > ‘Do not indulge in acts of extremism, do not disrespect dead corpses, do not resort to deceit, do not kill an elder, do not kill a child, do not kill a woman, and do not [even] cut down trees unless necessity dictates otherwise.’ > > […] > > By the majesty of God! By the majesty of God! Souls are sacred! Never should you do to them that which God has not deemed permissible. What great travesty it is to kill innocent souls, and what great honour it is to safeguard innocent souls, just as God, exalted is He, mentioned in His book [i.e. the Qurʾan]. The killing of an innocent soul has dangerous consequences, both in this world and in the hereafter. > > […] > > Never inflict harm on non-Muslims, regardless of their religion and sect. The non-Muslims [who live in predominately Muslim lands] are under the protection of the Muslims in those lands. Whosoever attacks non-Muslims is a betrayer and traitor. And rest assured that such an act of betrayal and treachery is one of the most repugnant acts in accordance to innate nature and the religion of God. > > […] > > By the majesty of God! By the majesty of God! The lives of those who do not fight you are sacred, especially the weak among the elderly, the children, and the women, even if they were the families of those who fight you. What’s more, the Grand Ayatollah made sure to remind the volunteers that Sunnis, too, are fellow Muslims, and - in sharp contrast to ISIS - to avoid “takfirization” at all costs: > [@](#): > > By the majesty of God! By the majesty of God! It is [abhorrent] to cast suspicion over the integrity of people’s faith in order to target them and legitimize the taking away of that which is sacred [i.e. their life]. Alike the way of the Kharijites of the early Islamic period and their contemporary followers who are ignorant of the basic tenets of religion, following their own personal moods and whims and have sought to justify their [un-Islamic] actions by recourse to some textual evidence which they never understood. The Muslims of today have to live with the consequences of these misinterpretations. > > Know that whosoever bears testimony that there is only one God and that Muhammad is His messenger is indeed a Muslim. That person’s life and property must be safeguarded. If that person falls into the trap of [theological] deviance and religious innovations, then know that not every misguidance leads to infidelity, nor does every innovation strip one of Islam as his faith. The statement is worth reading in its entirety, by the way - it’s fascinating stuff. And as I’ve written before: If Sistani somehow manages to get his way, I’d say he fully deserves that Nobel Peace Prize that [Tom Friedman called for back in 2005](http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/20/opinion/a-nobel-for-sistani.html). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/348 "2015-07-20T21:31:51Z")
Is there some reason that we should care whether Israel likes the deal or not? I mean no disrespect to Israelis, but so fucking what if they don’t like it? ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/349 "2015-07-20T21:46:28Z")
Writing in Foreign Policy ($$) in 2013, but quoted by Andrew Sullivan, [Daniel Levy](http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/09/30/why-israel-resists-peace-with-iran/) deconstructs Israeli opposition to a deal: > [@](#): > > ``` > If Iran is willing to cut a deal that effectively provides a guarantee against a weaponization of its nuclear program, and that deal is acceptable to the president of the United States of America, why would Netanyahu not take yes for an answer? > > The reason lies in Netanyahu’s broader view of Israel’s place in the region: The Israeli premier simply does not want an Islamic Republic of Iran that is a relatively independent and powerful actor. Israel has gotten used to a degree of regional hegemony and freedom of action — notably military action — that is almost unparalleled globally, especially for what is, after all, a rather small power. Israelis are understandably reluctant to give up any of that. > > Israel’s leadership seeks to maintain the convenient reality of a neighboring region populated by only two types of regimes. The first type is regimes with a degree of dependence on the United States, which necessitates severe limitations on challenging Israel (including diplomatically). The second type is regimes that are considered beyond the pale by the United States and as many other global actors as possible, and therefore unable to do serious damage to Israeli interests. > > Israel’s leadership would consider the emergence of a third type of regional actor — one that is not overly deferential to Washington but also is not boycotted, and that even boasts a degree of economic, political, and military weight — a deeply undesirable development. > > ``` Whatever Israel’s reasons for opposing it, ISTM that trying to kill a deal that’s already been agreed by the world’s major powers is a dead-end that can only harm Israel’s interests from here. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/350 "2015-07-20T22:01:06Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is there some reason that we should care whether Israel likes the deal or not? I mean no disrespect to Israelis, but so fucking what if they don’t like it? From a “realpolitic” position, there is at least some reason to be concerned - as mentioned above, a _perception_\* that the US is willing to ‘sell out’ its ‘friends’ to its ‘enemies’ in return for some advantage or other is bad for the US in the long term, both specifically vs. Israel (it makes unilateral Israeli actions more likely) and generally vs. other powers (a perception that the US ‘sold out’ its ‘friends’ = fewer willing to trust in US ‘friendship’ in the future). \*Note “perception”. Of course it is perfectly reasonable to argue that no actual “selling out” occurred; but perceptions are important. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/351 "2015-07-20T22:08:38Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > From a “realpolitic” position, there is at least some reason to be concerned - as mentioned above, a _perception_\* that the US is willing to ‘sell out’ its ‘friends’ to its ‘enemies’ in return for some advantage or other is bad for the US in the long term, both specifically vs. Israel (it makes unilateral Israeli actions more likely) **and generally vs. other powers (a perception that the US ‘sold out’ its ‘friends’ = fewer willing to trust in US ‘friendship’ in the future).** > > \*Note “perception”. Of course it is perfectly reasonable to argue that no actual “selling out” occurred; but perceptions are important. [bolding mine] I really struggle to think which other powers are likely to share Israel’s view that the US has sold Israel out. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/352 "2015-07-20T22:33:37Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > From a “realpolitic” position, there is at least some reason to be concerned - as mentioned above, a _perception_\* that the US is willing to ‘sell out’ its ‘friends’ to its ‘enemies’ in return for some advantage or other is bad for the US in the long term, both specifically vs. Israel (it makes unilateral Israeli actions more likely) and generally vs. other powers (a perception that the US ‘sold out’ its ‘friends’ = fewer willing to trust in US ‘friendship’ in the future). > > \*Note “perception”. Of course it is perfectly reasonable to argue that no actual “selling out” occurred; but perceptions are important. I’m willing to risk it… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/353 "2015-07-21T01:51:24Z")
One can only truly “sell out” an equal. We’re the Americans, we don’t have any of those. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/354 "2015-07-21T03:27:53Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > “All over the world?” > > North America? South America? India, Burma, Laos? Australia and New Zealand? Austria and Hungary and Russia? And at sea, with a blue-water navy? > > Don’t exaggerate; it ends up undermining your legitimate points. I’m not exaggerating. Hezbollah attacked a Jewish Community Center in Argentina. > **[AMIA bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMIA_bombing#Investigation_and_responsibility)** > > The AMIA bombing occurred on 18 July 1994 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and targeted the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; transl. "Argentine Israelite Mutual Association"), a Jewish Community Centre. Executed as a suicidal attack, a bomb-laden van was driven into the AMIA building and subsequently detonated, killing 85 people and injuring over 300. To date, the bombing remains the deadliest terrorist attack in Argentine history. In 1994, Argentina was home to a Jewish community Over... Hezbollah operatives are far more numerous in the US than Al Qaeda operatives: > **[Hezbollah: "A-Team Of Terrorists"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hezbollah-a-team-of-terrorists/)** > > Ed Bradley Reports On Islamic Militant Group > [@](#): > > Graham says Hezbollah has a global network of radical Islamic supporters, with enough operatives in the U.S. to pose a terrorist threat here. > > “It has a significant presence of its trained operatives inside the United States waiting for the call to action,” says Graham. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/355 "2015-07-21T03:28:58Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m willing to risk it… We already tried the “not respected by our friends, not feared by our enemies” foreign policy. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/356 "2015-07-21T04:05:34Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Will we start to see trade wars between the major powers with the re-opening of Iran? Sure. We Euros are [already jockeying for position](http://www.euronews.com/newswires/3041117-europe-to-back-iran-nuclear-deal-in-signal-to-us-congress/): > [@](#): > > Keen to consider Iran as an alternative supplier of energy at a time of tensions with Russia, the European Union may reopen an EU delegation in Tehran and is seeking business opportunities in the country. Unsurprisingly, the Germans made the first move: [Its Vice Chancellor visited Iran this weekend, “becoming the first senior figure from a large Western government to visit the country since the deal.”](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/us-iran-nuclear-eu-idUSKCN0PU0S520150720?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews) Tellingly, [he brought along the boss of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry](http://news.yahoo.com/german-economy-minister-due-iran-business-leaders-112728120.html;_ylt=AwrBT4BJs6tVnIIAYztXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTExZzQ0YmY1BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDVUlDMV8xBHNlYwNzYw--). > [@](#): > > Iran and Germany were historically close trade partners but business dropped off as a result of the sanctions, declining to 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) last year from around eight billion euros in 2003-2004, according to German figures. > > Schweitzer said bilateral trade could quadruple in the next two to three years to around 10 billion euros. > > German business leaders have pointed to pent-up demand in modernising Iran’s industrial infrastructure, particularly in the oil sector, as presenting lucrative opportunities. > > Engineering, chemical, pharmaceutical, car part and railway companies are all eyeing big contracts. France’s Foreign Minister will visit Iran any day now, and [Austria’s dito will do so in September, along with the country’s President](http://news.yahoo.com/austrian-foreign-minister-visit-iran-september-114721519.html;_ylt=AwrBT4BJs6tVnIIAYjtXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTExZzQ0YmY1BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDVUlDMV8xBHNlYwNzYw--). It seems that whatever business opportunities the Americans choose to neglect, we’d be happy to take. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/357 "2015-07-21T04:12:59Z")
Hopefully those business opportunities won’t include arms sales. Let them have Chinese and Russian crap. And please, let’s not repeat the mistakes we made with Saddam and his chemical weapons program. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/358 "2015-07-21T04:27:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Hezbollah operatives are far more numerous in the US than Al Qaeda operatives: > > [Hezbollah: "A-Team Of Terrorists" - CBS News](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hezbollah-a-team-of-terrorists/) > > > [@](#): > > > > Graham says Hezbollah has a global network of radical Islamic supporters, with enough operatives in the U.S. to pose a terrorist threat here. > > > > “It has a significant presence of its trained operatives inside the United States waiting for the call to action,” says Graham. From your own link: > [@](#): > > The FBI says that its [i.e. Hezbollah’s] members here [i.e. in the U.S.] are raising money for activities overseas and nothing more than that. Seems the FBI was right on the money. The article’s from way back in 2003, and since then, Hezbollah has performed exactly zero attacks on American soil. Accordingly, in February of 2015, [“an annual report delivered […] to the US Senate by James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, removed Iran and Hezbollah from its list of terrorism threats.”](http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-report-scraps-iran-hezbollah-from-list-of-terror-threats/) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/359 "2015-07-21T04:29:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We already tried the “not respected by our friends, not feared by our enemies” foreign policy. Its in quotes? Who can we thank for this incredibly stupid aphorism? You might have enemies, but they may not necessarily feel the need to kill you. Unless they were afraid of you, like maybe you have a remarkable fondness for futile military adventures. Then, sure, you’re a threat! What shit for brains came up with that crapola? Having enemies is bad enough, having them be afraid of you is worse, not better. That kind of thinking isn’t evolved past chimpanzee. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2015, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/360 "2015-07-21T04:37:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We already tried the “not respected by our friends, not feared by our enemies” foreign policy. We did? I thought we already tried bombing our way to success. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=19)