# Nuclear deal with Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 14, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128 "2015-07-14T11:37:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 58
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2018, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1141 "2018-05-08T20:57:44Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > You’re assuming Trump is playing the deep long game. He isn’t. And the responsible people in the US gov’t don’t want to go in this direction either. > > Trump got the headline. That’s all he wanted out of this and now it’s Mission Accomplished, fuckyouverymuch Obama. The only thing he enjoys better than this is putting his name in big gold tacky letter on tall downtown buildings. If someone would only allow him to continue to try to do that, he’d be happier than Putin on his 4th term inauguration. I freely concede that all of this is a coincidence and not some exercise into some sort of deep long game, which Trump probably doesn’t even exhibit with porn stars. Not that I want to think too deeply about that either. I was just saying that there are some dots there that could be connected. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2018, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1142 "2018-05-08T21:05:11Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I freely concede that all of this is a coincidence and not some exercise into some sort of deep long game, which Trump probably doesn’t even exhibit with porn stars. Not that I want to think too deeply about that either. I was just saying that there are some dots there that could be connected. For sure. And I guy like Bolton will certainly want to try. My feeling is that cooler/wiser heads will prevail long enough for the orange buffoon to be endited or suffer a stroke. Or both. And I sincerely hope neither is trivial. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2018, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1143 "2018-05-08T21:18:29Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > For sure. And I guy like Bolton will certainly want to try. My feeling is that cooler/wiser heads will prevail long enough for the orange buffoon to be endited or suffer a stroke. Or both. And I sincerely hope neither is trivial. The EU issued a statement that if Iran continues to abide by the agreement the EU will consider it still in effect. Not sure if that will hold, as I’m unsure if the hardliners in Iran, who REALLY hate this deal will not use this as an opportunity to get rid of it and discredit the moderates. On the other side of things, though, Saudi is going to be VERY happy with this, and I’m unsure if they might not, along with the US hit back at the EU if they don’t play along. This is a pretty complicated mess with a lot of nations and groups having various vested interests that are in conflict. A lot of the Europeans, for instance have a vested interest in this working, since they have invested a lot of political capital in this. Israel pretty obviously has a vested interest in guiding the US to the conclusion that Trump reached. Saudi has vested interests. Russia has vested interests. Various factions in Iran have conflicting interests. In the US it’s a liberal/conservative thing with vested interests ranging from political to simple profit (or loss). Even China and North Korea have interests in this, though for different reasons (even different from each other). This is the price we pay for putting basically an idiotic version of Loki in the White House… ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2018, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1144 "2018-05-08T21:33:45Z")
> [@XT](#): > > The EU issued a statement that if Iran continues to abide by the agreement the EU will consider it still in effect. Not sure if that will hold, as I’m unsure if the hardliners in Iran, who REALLY hate this deal will not use this as an opportunity to get rid of it and discredit the moderates. On the other side of things, though, Saudi is going to be VERY happy with this, and I’m unsure if they might not, along with the US hit back at the EU if they don’t play along. > > This is a pretty complicated mess with a lot of nations and groups having various vested interests that are in conflict. A lot of the Europeans, for instance have a vested interest in this working, since they have invested a lot of political capital in this. Israel pretty obviously has a vested interest in guiding the US to the conclusion that Trump reached. Saudi has vested interests. Russia has vested interests. Various factions in Iran have conflicting interests. In the US it’s a liberal/conservative thing with vested interests ranging from political to simple profit (or loss). Even China and North Korea have interests in this, though for different reasons (even different from each other). > > This is the price we pay for putting basically an idiotic version of Loki in the White House… If the EU stays n the deal, then Iran may as well. Just losing us as trading partners may not hurt so much, losing the rest of the world, maybe a bit. If the EU and the rest of Iran’s trading partners pull out of the deal, then Iran has no reason not to just go ahead and start building nuclear bombs. As far as negotiation strategy, all that tells north korea or anyone else that we are looking to make deals with is that we do not honor the deals that we make. I think that demonstrating that you do not honor the deals that you make would make future deals harder to do, not easier. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2018, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1145 "2018-05-08T23:48:07Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > As far as negotiation strategy, all that tells north korea or anyone else that we are looking to make deals with is that we do not honor the deals that we make. I think that demonstrating that you do not honor the deals that you make would make future deals harder to do, not easier. Yup, pretty much. The Iranian foreign minister [said it well](https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-scramble-to-salvage-the-iran-nuclear-deal): > [@](#): > > “The United States has not only failed to implement its side but is even asking for more […] That’s a very dangerous message to send to the people of Iran, but also to the people of the world—that _you should never come to an agreement with the United States, because, at the end of the day, the operating principle for the United States is ‘what’s mine is mine, what’s yours is negotiable.’_” Italics mine. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1146 "2018-05-09T02:26:13Z")
I suspect that Kim Jong Un purposely told the US diplomats that the Iran deal “doesn’t matter,” specifically so that they could later use that as a justification to resume their nukes when it suits them. In the meantime, if North Korea can bullshit the US into dropping some sanctions and moving troops and _gradually_ suspending their nuke and missile program, then it’s a win/win/win – for North Korea. But there will be other countries that will want to arm themselves and use their weapons as bargaining chips. The takeaways they get from the first two years of the Trump administration are clear: make sure you get nukes first, then negotiate. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1147 "2018-05-09T03:00:27Z")
> [@XT](#): > > And if the US decides to impose a blockade? The thing is, while it’s nice to think that the US doesn’t matter and everyone will just ignore whatever we do, that isn’t reality. I seriously doubt it will be business as usual for Iran and everyone with no change exept the US will put the sanctions back in place (which is meaningless as the US doesn’t buy any oil from Iran…and yes, I know that oil on the international market is fungable, but the reality is we just don’t get our oil from them nor even a lot from the region). The increase in oil prices is a huge benefit to Russia - they have been hurt by the drop in oil prices since 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1148 "2018-05-09T03:23:45Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Yup, pretty much. > > The Iranian foreign minister [said it well](https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-scramble-to-salvage-the-iran-nuclear-deal): Gotta give Zarif props; that was an excellent turn of phrase, and all too true. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1149 "2018-05-09T05:02:50Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I don’t see why Iran wouldn’t wait to resume bomb production. Iraq and North Korea make it very, very clear what the US foreign policy is: the US doesn’t attack countries that have a nuclear threat. Might be a bit difficult, they have already destroyed most of their centrifuges. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1150 "2018-05-09T05:36:18Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Gotta give Zarif props; that was an excellent turn of phrase, and all too true. He stole it from a JFK speech. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1151 "2018-05-09T05:49:06Z")
Hell, the original was probably written in cuneiform. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1152 "2018-05-09T10:56:35Z")
So I keep saying that Trump isn’t as bad as Bush… _yet_. A worse statesman, a worse politico, an all-around terrible guy, but in terms of “awful”, Bush set the bar painfully high by invading Iraq. Well, between this and hiring Bolton and Pompeo, I think it’s pretty likely that “yet” is really a matter of time. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1153 "2018-05-09T11:11:00Z")
If Dickhead Donnie\* had ever secured a negotiation between Russia, China, Iran, Germany, France, Great Britian and the US his suckers would be proclaiming that as proof of his supreme deal making skills. (That’s in an alternate universe, of course. In this universe such a deal is merely an Obama accomplishment to be destroyed, damn the consequences.) - It is alright to refer to politicians with insulting nicknames, just look at the Dickhead’s twitter account for proof. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1154 "2018-05-09T11:50:56Z")
More thoughts on exiting the deal: Wow, what a huge blunder. Not only do we appear to be the dishonorable party, by leaving a deal that we, our allies, and Iran signed, but we place ourselves alone against most of our closest allies. Further, Iran has an easier path towards nuclear weapons – if the US doesn’t stick to the terms of the deal, it’s now much easier for Iran to say that they don’t have to either. But that’s not all. American corporations like Boeing now have to cancel big deals they made with Iran. Also, German and British and French corporations made business deals with Iran and Iranian companies – deals that would now violate the sanctions the US is planning to put back into place. So now the US has placed itself in a position in which we either stick to our guns and sanction those German, British, and French corporations, or we ignore their violations of our sanctions and look completely toothless. Which is better: economically sanctioning our allies, or appearing totally feckless, weak, and foolish? I don’t know. I just know that we wouldn’t be in this very weak and dangerous position had we just stuck to a deal we signed – a deal that, according to the experts on nuclear proliferation, was successfully keeping Iran 10 to 15 years away from a nuclear weapon, at worst. Uggh. Stupid, stupid, stupid… we gain nothing, Iran gains status, and we’re forced to decide between sanctioning allies or looking even weaker and dumber. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1155 "2018-05-09T11:55:32Z")
Apparently the State Department had no idea what any of our allies thought about the deal or what they would do after we pulled out. Jesus Christ, what a shit show. One particular exchange: > [@](#): > > Question: But, I mean, they tell us that they want to stay in the deal as is. And so again, it’s all - this is all sort of fairly surprising that you guys are doing something so dramatic that affects your closest allies in a dramatic way. They see this deal as essential to their national security and you have no Plan B, you have no idea whether they will stay in the deal, whether they will defend the deal, whether they will fight you on the deal, whether they are going to go off with Iran against you. > > State: I mean, I think we have some idea because the President and President Macron, when he was here for the state visit, talked in their press availability about - President Macron called it a four-pillar new deal. What he tweeted today seemed to me - I think there were four pillars in what he tweeted today - seemed to me, again, to echo his desire for a broad new four-pillar deal. > > Question: But one of the pillars was keeping the JCPOA, which he made certain to emphasize repeatedly. > > State: Right, but he tweeted today something that seemed to indicate to me a French willingness to work with us. > > Question: So you guys have a positive tweet out of it. That’s amazing. [https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/281959.html](https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/281959.html) ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1156 "2018-05-09T12:13:04Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Apparently the State Department had no idea what any of our allies thought about the deal or what they would do after we pulled out. Jesus Christ, what a shit show. > > One particular exchange: > > [Press Releases - United States Department of State](https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/281959.html) That seems borderline impossible. Like, they can’t honestly be that clueless about what our allies have been very loudly saying. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1157 "2018-05-09T13:08:58Z")
Pulling out of this deal is possibly the best thing to happen to the USA in decades or more. The power of treaties\* is in Congress’s hands, not something the President can unilaterally twiddle his fingers and declare (and I don’t give two fucks and a shit over who did it first, if the Republicans did it too, if the Dems did it more…no President should _ever_ have the ability to make treaties via executive orders). Trump’s reasons were stupid, his handling of this was ham-fisted at best and there’ll be a lot of short term damage to the US’s allies and to the US’s reputation, but going forward, I’ll bet that there will be a lot less treaty by executive order and our allies will hopefully realize that Presidential “deals” are absolutely not to be trusted and to wait for Congress to pass something or not. \*And this _was_ a treaty, even if you weasel-word it as a “deal” ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1158 "2018-05-09T13:56:51Z")
So, by your logic, “the best thing to happen to the USA in decades” is something you concede has only negative consequences right now, but might, in the future, if everyone interprets events in the way you just did, lead to a positive constitutional change. Even though there’s no evidence of such an interpretation surfacing and several worse messages that many might take from this; that making decisions based on an utter ignorance of the data and screwing over allies and our obligations is all good. MAGA! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1159 "2018-05-09T14:35:01Z")
> [@Fenris](#): > > Pulling out of this deal is possibly the best thing to happen to the USA in decades or more. The power of treaties\* is in Congress’s hands, not something the President can unilaterally twiddle his fingers and declare (and I don’t give two fucks and a shit over who did it first, if the Republicans did it too, if the Dems did it more…no President should _ever_ have the ability to make treaties via executive orders). > > Trump’s reasons were stupid, his handling of this was ham-fisted at best and there’ll be a lot of short term damage to the US’s allies and to the US’s reputation, but going forward, I’ll bet that there will be a lot less treaty by executive order and our allies will hopefully realize that Presidential “deals” are absolutely not to be trusted and to wait for Congress to pass something or not. > > \*And this _was_ a treaty, even if you weasel-word it as a “deal” I doubt most legal scholars would agree with you here. Although foreign policy is not exclusively the president’s domain, the law of the land makes it clear that the president is the single most important figure in shaping and representing American foreign policy. The Constitution and the laws therefrom clearly allow the president to enter into executive agreements without requiring congressional approval in advance. There are mechanisms in place to ensure that the president’s power isn’t unlimited. For one thing, such agreements can later be rescinded by future presidents. In the interim, congress can also vote to block or simply pull funding from any such agreement, as Congress more or less did when Clinton entered into a non-proliferation framework with North Korea in the 1990s (which probably reflects poorly on congressional Republicans in hindsight). The Iranian deal probably wasn’t perfect but it offered some degree of regional stability in a part of the world that is economically and politically sensitive, and an area that badly needs greater stability. I would agree with AK84 that Iran might not find it easy in restarting its nuclear program, but I think that fact demonstrates to a large degree the success of the framework in place. In the short term, a possible consequence of pulling out of the agreement is that it raises the possibility of instability. Iran may also regard Israel and Saudi Arabia as more existential threats to its continued viability, thus raising the prospects of a very nasty conflict between these three countries. There is no real way to predict what could happen if those conflicts progress beyond proxy wars and turn into more visible direct confrontations. I can’t imagine that it would be particularly helpful for global political and economic stability. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128/1160 "2018-05-09T14:40:29Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Apparently the State Department had no idea what any of our allies thought about the deal or what they would do after we pulled out. Jesus Christ, what a shit show. > > One particular exchange: > > [Press Releases - United States Department of State](https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/281959.html) They removed the page. :dubious: Glad you at least grabbed the text. I’d send it to NYT and WaPo. See what they want to do with it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=57) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nuclear-deal-with-iran/725128.md?page=59)