# NYT needle is confident that Trump has won Florida **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 4, 2020, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695 "2020-11-04T01:29:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/1 "2020-11-04T01:29:49Z")
The needle seems very confident that Trump has won Florida and that he is likely to win Georgia. It’s tilting his way slightly in NC. It’s giving Trump a 50% chance of winning all three. Biden has other paths to victory of course but it’s looking like it will all depend on PA. Overall things have definitely not started on a good note… ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/2 "2020-11-04T01:30:27Z")
Sorry wrong forum. Could you please move to Elections? ---
**Author:** ![yarblek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/71e660/32.png) [@yarblek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yarblek)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/3 "2020-11-04T18:25:34Z")
Biden won’t need PA if he wins NV, AZ, WI, MI and NE2, and all of which he is currently favored. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/4 "2020-11-04T18:29:00Z")
However, Biden’s homestate is Pennsylvania, and I’d expect him to win it just for that reason. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/5 "2020-11-04T18:48:00Z")
BTW is the NYT still updating the needle? If so what does it say for Georgia? ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/6 "2020-11-04T19:10:18Z")
I don’t know if they’re still updating it but it shows 64% for Biden in Georgia. > **[Election Needles: President (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html)** > > Modeling key battleground states. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/7 "2020-11-04T19:23:13Z")
They’re still updating it. Georgia is going to be close. Note that 64% is the running probability that Biden wins Georgia according to the model, not his share of the vote (probably obvious in context, but it’s good to be extra clear). Currently Trump is ahead by ~100k counted votes, but there are ~200k uncounted mail ballots, which based on where they are from and the fact that they are mail ballots likely skew substantially toward Biden. But it’s gonna be close. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nyt-needle-is-confident-that-trump-has-won-florida/924695/8 "2020-11-04T20:01:51Z")
But I have been seeing that 64% number forever which is why I am wondering if it is being updated.