# NYTimes: No evidence that Patriots deflated balls **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 23, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013 "2016-01-23T20:27:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2016, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/41 "2016-01-24T23:17:37Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > I haven’t read the Wells report, but what I’ve read about it isn’t consistent with it adopting the view that the physical evidence would exonerate the Patriots if it were good data. The many debunkings out there, including this one (hardly the first), show how Wells cooked the analysis to provide the result he was paid to provide. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2016, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/42 "2016-01-24T23:34:06Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > The physical evidence, insofar as it shows anything, suggests that the balls weren’t deflated. However, it’s not very good data and given the circumstantial evidence the best conclusion is that the balls were deflated and the PSI readings under proper controlled conditions would actually have shown greater pressure loss than they did. We should throw out the physical evidence in preference to the circumstantial evidence. I am not saying any evidence should be “thow[n] out.” I am saying that given the direct testimonial evidence of deflation, the question is whether the PSI readings are inconsistent with intentional deflation. The way it would be inconsistent is if we knew the all the inputs for the ideal gas law with as strong a certainty as that our reading of the text messages is correct (and that the guy wasn’t lying about deflating them). Based on what I’ve read, the any non-cheating explanation for the texts is quite a bit less likely than the measurements simply being imprecise. Since you agree that the measurements are imprecise, I’m not quite clear on where you disagree. (Incidentally, the text messages aren’t really “circumstantial evidence” as that term is normally used. Circumstantial evidence is evidence that relies on an inference to connect it to the fact in question. Text messages in which employees talk about deflating Brady’s balls is not circumstantial evidence. It is direct (testimonial) evidence. It can be subject to differing interpretation, or found credible or not credible, but is not generally considered circumstantial. Similarly, an expert report about someone else’s report of physical conditions of the balls is not generally considered physical evidence.) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2016, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/43 "2016-01-24T23:48:50Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The many debunkings out there, including this one (hardly the first), show how Wells cooked the analysis to provide the result he was paid to provide. Right. Because the NFL hates one of its most popular teams and wanted to discredit professional football by accusing one of its most popular players of cheating. And the Colts helped because, as a football team, they wanted the League to have the power to arbitrarily destroy football teams with no cause. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/44 "2016-01-25T00:15:32Z")
Goodell’s an idiot, didn’t you know? ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/45 "2016-01-25T03:58:31Z")
> [@fachverwirrt](#): > > At the end of the day, of course, it doesn’t really matter. The text messages are pretty compelling evidence that McNally at least sometimes let some air out of balls, which is illegal. Is it illegal if the balls are still in the legal PSI range? Do the texts indicate that McNally was _illegally_ tampering with the balls? We know that QBs are allowed to set the balls to how they want; Aaron Rogers admitted to _over_ inflating the balls. > [@brickbacon](#): > > So why do you trust one guy rather than the outside firm and various other professors and lawyers? As the NYTimes article mentions, you have it backwards. The only scientists who back the conclusion of the Wells Report are from the company hired by the NFL–Exponent Consulting group–which, according to the LA Times, “_has come under fire from critics, including engineers, attorneys and academics who say the company tends to deliver to clients the reports they need to mount a public defense._” (copied from Wiki). Plenty of scientists have disputed the Wells Report, including (copied from the NYTimes article) “_scientists at Carnegie Mellon, the University of Chicago, Boston College, Rockefeller University, the University of Illinois and Bowdoin College_”. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/46 "2016-01-25T04:00:55Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Right. Because the NFL hates one of its most popular teams and wanted to discredit professional football by accusing one of its most popular players of cheating. And the Colts helped because, as a football team, they wanted the League to have the power to arbitrarily destroy football teams with no cause. ESPN came out with a report that said that Goodell went overboard on the Patriots because of his handling of Spygate. The report also said that certain owners (like Jerry Jones) were still bitter about it and put pressure on Goodell to hit the Patriots hard. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/47 "2016-01-25T16:38:49Z")
> [@fachverwirrt](#): > > The text messages are pretty compelling evidence that McNally at least sometimes let some air out of balls, which is illegal. Wait, so if McNally had a ball at 15 PSI, and, before bringing it to the referees to be measured at the start of the game, he deflated it to 13 PSI (at the low end, but within the legal range), that would be illegal? Because that’s an interesting legal theory that I hadn’t considered. Could you explain it more? ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/48 "2016-01-25T16:44:31Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Based on what I’ve read, the any non-cheating explanation for the texts is quite a bit less likely than the measurements simply being imprecise. So what did you read, where? Seriously, I’m interested. Because everything I’ve seen is completely consistent with Brady wanting the balls to be at the very lower end of the legal range. Did you read anything inconsistent with that explanation? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/49 "2016-01-25T16:50:24Z")
IIRC, the texts mention jokingly reporting this practice which would get people in trouble. So that’s inconsistent with legal deflation, right? But I should reiterate that I have not followed this closely at all. I mostly have just read the links and posts in this thread. ETA: also, it would be rather odd the Patriots not to go with that defense if it were true. Did they? ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/50 "2016-01-25T16:52:10Z")
> [@Quercus](#): > > Wait, so if McNally had a ball at 15 PSI, and, before bringing it to the referees to be measured at the start of the game, he deflated it to 13 PSI (at the low end, but within the legal range), that would be illegal? > > Because that’s an interesting legal theory that I hadn’t considered. Could you explain it more? Please. You know quite well what I’m saying. ---
**Author:** ![brickbacon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@brickbacon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brickbacon)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/51 "2016-01-25T17:23:49Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > They did not. They found that the pressure was not what they expected. That was because their expectations didn’t match reality. There is still no evidence of deflation. Yes, which is why they then spent millions of dollars investigating it and subsequently finding reams of circumstantial evidence backing the claim. So, no, they didn’t start with the assumption of malfeasance. > [@Gorsnak](#): > > You didn’t watch his lecture, did you? He addresses all those issues, looking at the time it takes for balls to recover to original pressure when placed back in room temperature, and the effects of wetness on that rate of recovery. Once again, he has no idea what the starting or ending temps of the footballs were at the game. He has no idea whether the volume changed. All he has is a theory and a formula for which there is no certainty of the inputs. The physics is compelling in terms of offering an alternate explanation, but not conclusive by any measure. More importantly, if you read the Wells report, you see the ultimate conclusion was more based on the outside circumstantial evidence and Brady’s behavior rather than the physical evidence. > [@Gorsnak](#): > > The outside firm in question has in the past disputed the link between tobacco smoke and cancer, and the dangers of asbestos. It would seem that they’ll argue whatever you pay them to. That’s a good reason to be skeptical, but if that is the case, point out their errors rather than just offering a drive by attack. > [@fachverwirrt](#): > > At the end of the day, of course, it doesn’t really matter. The text messages are pretty compelling evidence that McNally at least sometimes let some air out of balls, which is illegal. That Brady didn’t know is stretching the bounds of implausibility. Whether they were actually deflated during the Indy game is an interesting question, but it has no real bearing on whether there was rule breaking in general. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/52 "2016-01-25T18:24:06Z")
> [@fachverwirrt](#): > > Please. You know quite well what I’m saying. Well, I don’t know. It seems like you’re intentionally confusing the difference between illegal and legal deflating. The non-nefarious explanation for the texts is that Brady told the equipment guys he wanted the balls right at the lower limit, and if a ball was higher than that before the game, to deflate them to the lower legal limit before handing them over to the refs. (just like many other NFL QBs have admitted telling their equipment people). If there’s anything in the circumstantial evidence that seriously contradicts that explanation, feel free to point that out. But in the meantime you seem to be saying that look, there’s circumstantial evidence that balls – at some point, somewhere-- were deflated. And all deflating is illegal. Therefore there is proof that illegal cheating happened. And when someone asks you about that second bit and whether deflating before the referees check could be legal, you avoid the question. I don’t know, it kind of seems like someone who really wants to find a nefarious explanation. Again, if there’s significant evidence inconsistent with legal, pre-game deflating, feel free to point it out. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/53 "2016-01-25T18:45:40Z")
Yes, I suppose the texts could conceivably refer to pre-check deflation. That would be a stupid interpretation, though, because overinflating the balls and then handing them to someone else to deflate them afterwards would be a stupid process. And the Patriots desperate attempts to justify the texts do not include “hey guys, they were talking about deflating them before the refs checked them” which would have been a fuck-ton more reasonable than “he was trying to lose weight!” If that’s what the texts were referring to, don’t you think someone would have pointed that out? It was quite clear, if you’re not attempting to deliberately misinterpret what I said, that I was referring to post-check deflation. The claim that I’m somehow trying to come up with nefarious explanations is rather bizarre in light of the fact that I’m a Patriots fan. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/54 "2016-01-25T19:28:11Z")
> [@Quercus](#): > > The non-nefarious explanation for the texts is that Brady told the equipment guys he wanted the balls right at the lower limit, and if a ball was higher than that before the game, to deflate them to the lower legal limit before handing them over to the refs. (just like many other NFL QBs have admitted telling their equipment people). If there’s anything in the circumstantial evidence that seriously contradicts that explanation, feel free to point that out. If the texts were discussing legal deflation, why would there be comments about “going to espn”, why would he be under “a lot of stress”, and requests for cash and new shoes? And why call himself the deflator, when, in fact, he’s inflating them, just to legal limit. It strains the limits of credulity to think those mean anything but deflating the level below what is actually allowed. Unless he was planning to break the huge story to espn that _gasp_ he inflated the balls to the legal limit _gasp_. This thing was hashed to death last year. The Patriots accepted their punishment, they’ll lose a draft pick, and life will go on. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013/55 "2016-01-26T02:46:10Z")
Do please note the evidence not showing any deflation at all having occurred, Counselor. And yes, we do know how you wish life would just “go on”, those of us who have witnessed all of your bravura table-pounding performances here. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nytimes-no-evidence-that-patriots-deflated-balls/744013.md?page=2)