# Oak's College Pick'em '11

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [July 30, 2011, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807 "2011-07-30T03:04:06Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 8

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**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 17, 2011, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/141 "2011-11-17T21:20:19Z")

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> [@jsc1953](#):
>
> Cal over Stanfurd. You heard it here first. Go Bears!

I am sure you are putting 20 confidence points on that matchup 🆒

BTW, did you save your picks yet? It looks like you haven’t submitted your picks.

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**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\
**Post date:** [November 20, 2011, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/142 "2011-11-20T07:57:47Z")

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> [@Zeldar](#):
>
> At least one of those games has a better than even chance of being an upset. Best chance is Citadel.

> [@USCDiver](#):
>
> Do what now?

Well even Citadel didn’t manage an upset. But plenty of others did! And Big Dogs, too.

I must take the opportunity for my one brag of the season. At least I won one week while covering the bottom of the barrel except for the two who dropped out!

Maybe my luck has turned, but I’m going to be pulling even more for favorite teams rather than the ones I expect to win.

Auburn for example!

Ain’t it lovely how one division (not just one conference) is dominating the top slots in the rankings? Does anybody get the feeling the SEC may add one more BCS National Champion to the stack?

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**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [November 20, 2011, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/143 "2011-11-20T08:03:20Z")

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> [@notfrommensa](#):
>
> I am sure you are putting 20 confidence points on that matchup 🆒

Well, we beat the point spread. Do I get any points for that?

Looks like 4 of the top 10 lost this weekend (both Okies, Oregon and Clemson), while the SEC was taking their annual week devoted to beating up on widows and orphans. Just about guarantees an LSU - Alabama rematch. Oh, joy.

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**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/144 "2011-11-21T03:54:51Z")

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> [@jsc1953](#):
>
> Well, we beat the point spread. Do I get any points for that?
> 
> Looks like 4 of the top 10 lost this weekend (both Okies, Oregon and Clemson), while the SEC was taking their annual week devoted to beating up on widows and orphans. Just about guarantees an LSU - Alabama rematch. Oh, joy.

Other conferences to their cremepuff feasting in September while the SEC is already playing conference games.

The SEC model is working well, doncha think?

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**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/145 "2011-11-21T14:41:55Z")

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> [@notfrommensa](#):
>
> Other conferences to their cremepuff feasting in September while the SEC is already playing conference games.
> 
> The SEC model is working well, doncha think?

One certainly can’t argue with their success; and there’s no reason not to play an OOC game in November. But seriously…why would any BCS school should schedule an FCS school at any time of year. If the SEC is going to swagger around and claim to be the absolute cream of college football, they’re just embarrassing themselves by scheduling Furman and Georgia Southern.

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**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/146 "2011-11-21T15:01:45Z")

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Very true from the competition perspective. But don’t the 1-AA schools make a good bit of money off those games? Hell, it could be half the athletic program budget for the year for all I know. The big boys get a breather and the little guy gets some much needed cash (and TV exposure). If all the major conferences stopped scheduling the 1-AA homecoming patsy, I’m guessing the small schools would complain vociferously.

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**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/147 "2011-11-21T15:45:38Z")

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> [@jsc1953](#):
>
> One certainly can’t argue with their success; and there’s no reason not to play an OOC game in November. But seriously…why would any BCS school should schedule an FCS school at any time of year. If the SEC is going to swagger around and claim to be the absolute cream of college football, they’re just embarrassing themselves by scheduling Furman and Georgia Southern.

You might find some insights into this issue at [What are the Must See OOC College Football Games of 2011?](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=615977) where, among other things, there’s a link to [Breaking down the 2011 schedules](http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1209758) at which there’s this breakdown:

> [@](#):
>
> BY THE NUMBERS  
> A look at the power leagues and how many FCS and “Big Six” opponents each has played in the past five regular seasons:
> 
> ```auto
> 
>  
> FCS opponents 
> League 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Total 
> 
> ACC 13 13 14 14 7 61  
> SEC 12 11 11 9 9 52  
> Big Ten 10 10 9 9 8 46  
> Big 12 6 8 9 10 8 41  
> Big East 8 8 9 7 7 39  
> Pac-10 8 7 4 2 2 23  
> Total 57 57 56 51 41  
> 
> "Big Six" opponents 
> League 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Total 
> 
> ACC 20 19 20 23 22 104 
> Big East 16 15 16 16 15 78  
> SEC 12 16 14 15 14 71  
> Pac-10 16 14 15 14 11 70  
> Big Ten 14 12 14 13 13 66  
> Big 12 9 12 11 15 11 58  
> Total 87 88 90 96 86 
> 
> ```

As I see it, the SEC is no more a villain in this arena than other Big Six conferences.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/148 "2011-11-21T16:04:08Z")

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The SEC plays 4 OOC games per year, just like the ACC, Big 10, and the Big 12 did (prior to this year).

What difference does it make when they play them. It makes perfect sense to me to schedule a cupcake late in the year. To rest up, to possibly play the second and third strings.

No one complains much when USCe beat UGA on the 2nd weekend this year.

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**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/149 "2011-11-21T16:13:52Z")

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> [@notfrommensa](#):
>
> The SEC plays 4 OOC games per year, just like the ACC, Big 10, and the Big 12 did (prior to this year).
> 
> What difference does it make when they play them. It makes perfect sense to me to schedule a cupcake late in the year. To rest up, to possibly play the second and third strings.
> 
> No one complains much when USCe beat UGA on the 2nd weekend this year.

Makes no difference to me, either.

But there are OOC games; and then there are cupcakes; and then there are FCS games. Every school should (IMHO) try to schedule an A-B-C OOC schedule (one powerhouse matchup, one middle of the pack school from a good conference, and one cupcake. But a cupcake is Colorado State, New Mexico or Minnesota…not Furman.

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**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/150 "2011-11-21T16:18:35Z")

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It happens at many (if not most) schools that schedules are made years in advance. This precludes an accurate view of which teams will be cupcakes and which won’t. I’d wager that Michigan would enjoy rescheduling that Appy State game which may have been a turning point in their “power rating” that’s still going on.

Almost getting beat by Utah State still stings at Auburn, too.

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**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/151 "2011-11-21T16:25:52Z")

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Those games can hurt a team as well. Undefeated Auburn was shut out of the Nat’l Championship game in 2004 when their OOC schedule was La Monroe, La Tech, and The Citadel.

Oklahoma and USCw was in the Nat’l Championship game that year.

Auburn has no one to blame but themselves.

As far as Furman goes, (or whatever Cupcake), they earned a boatload of money last weekend for a trip to the SWAMP. Probably paid for the football budget for the year. If they went and played Idaho St, how much money would they have received?

Yes, I would like Auburn and Bama and Florida play Blockbuster games every week, but if these games didn’t exist, small football programs would not exist.

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**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/152 "2011-11-21T16:31:13Z")

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> [@notfrommensa](#):
>
> Yes, I would like Auburn and Bama and Florida play Blockbuster games every week, but if these games didn’t exist, small football programs would not exist.

Ah, I see now…it’s all part of their plan for charitable giving, to the Little Guys of the football world. How noble! 😉

Agreed with Zeldar that OOC scheduling years in advance is a crapshoot – you stand the chance that your cupcake C game turns into your powerhouse A game, or vice versa. But for the good of the game and competition and for the fans, you’ve got to give it a shot.

If the problem is Auburn almost getting beat by Utah State…the solution is to improve Auburn’s program, not to degrade Auburn’s schedule.

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**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/153 "2011-11-21T16:52:53Z")

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So the big schools should schedule games just so they meet your approval?

The NCAA allows it, the cupcakes apparently don’t mind, the stands are (near) sell-outs, etc.

And they do get penalized in the Computer polls. Beating the Citadel did not do much for USCe ranking, other that teams lost. If they had beaten Va Tech, they probably would have shot into the top 10

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**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/154 "2011-11-21T17:03:24Z")

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No matter what method you appeal to to try to establish a reasonable schedule mix of strong, weak and moderate teams, your method will fail as often as not.

Rather than rehash the one I’ve been using this season, I will refer you to [this post from early this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14213218&postcount=16) in which the early games had a wide divergence of “strength” based on Sagarin’s rankings from January.

Appealing to [Sagarin’s most recent list](http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm) here’s how this week’s games break out:

```auto

 @(9)Oregon vs Oregon St. Sat 11/26 02:30pm 5 82 77 
 @Mississippi St. vs Mississippi Sat 11/26 06:00pm 40 106 66 
 @(7)Boise St. vs Wyoming Sat 11/26 01:00pm 8 72 64 
 @Kentucky vs Tennessee Sat 11/26 11:20am 92 45 47 
 @Northwestern vs (11)Michigan St. Sat 11/26 11:00am 60 20 40 
 @(10)USC vs UCLA Sat 11/26 09:00pm 15 52 37 
 @Auburn vs (2)Alabama Sat 11/26 02:30pm 35 2 33 
 @(17)Michigan vs Ohio St. Sat 11/26 11:00am 13 44 31  
 @(21)Baylor vs Texas Tech Sat 11/26 06:00pm 12 43 31 
 @(24)Virginia vs (6)Virginia Tech Sat 11/26 02:30pm 50 22 28 
 @(12)Oklahoma vs Iowa St. Sat 11/26 11:00am 4 29 25   
 @(25)Georgia Tech vs (13)Georgia Sat 11/26 11:00am 37 14 23  
 @(4)Stanford vs (22)Notre Dame Sat 11/26 07:00pm 6 25 19  
 @(22)Nebraska vs Iowa Fri 11/25 11:00am 24 42 18  
 @Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt Sat 11/26 02:30pm 61 51 10  
 @(14)South Carolina vs (18)Clemson Sat 11/26 06:45pm 17 27 10  
 @Tulsa vs (8)Houston Fri 11/25 11:00am 26 19 7  
 @(1)LSU vs (3)Arkansas Fri 11/25 01:30pm 1 7 6  
 @(15)Wisconsin vs (20)Penn St. Sat 11/26 02:30pm 18 23 5  
 @Florida vs Florida St. Sat 11/26 06:00pm 28 30 2  

```

However you want to apply break points for “close” or “not so close” team ranking differences, even this late in the season those differences are worth a little scrutiny. These are the “premium games” in most cases. As I read it, even the “important” games are hard to predict even a week away, much less a season or two or more away.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2011, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/155 "2011-11-21T17:10:33Z")

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> [@Zeldar](#):
>
> As I read it, even the “important” games are hard to predict even a week away, much less a season or two or more away.

I think I can safely predict, without the aid of a crystal ball, that a game in 2013 between Florida and Furman is not going to be Important.

I will stop beating this horse, now. I think the practice of routinely scheduling FCS schools is indefensible; apparently that’s not true. 🙂

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2011, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/156 "2011-11-23T11:40:44Z")

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20 games up this week, and several of them are rivalry games. The Egg Bowl, The Iron Bowl, and a bunch of games in the lesser conferences as well.

Got some upsets for ya:

Georgia State at home over Georgia

Florida at home over Florida State

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2011, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/157 "2011-11-23T15:57:54Z")

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> [@Oakminster](#):
>
> **Georgia State** at home over Georgia

**Emphasis Mine**

State?

Watcha Talking about Willis!?!?!?!? :dubious:☹

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2011, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/158 "2011-11-23T18:09:51Z")

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He meant Georgia Tech, not Georgia State. I think.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2011, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/159 "2011-11-23T18:41:52Z")

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Oops…that is what happens when I post at 5:40 AM. \*\* Jsc1953\*\* is right, I meant Georgia Tech over Georgia.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2011, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oaks-college-pickem-11/590807/160 "2011-11-23T19:36:10Z")

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I knew what you meant. I mean I am the “RamblinWreckage” in the pool. I was just insulted Mildly. {Wink} {Wink}.

BTW, it is the game of “Clean, Good Old Fashion Hate”

How 'bout dem Dawgs!

Piss on em!

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