# Obama and Cuba: Accident of history? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 20, 2015, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366 "2015-08-20T17:52:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/earl_snake-hips_tucker/32/3269_2.png) [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earl_Snake-Hips_Tucker)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/1 "2015-08-20T17:52:50Z")
There was a report earlier this week in WSJ about some additional travel restrictions being eased sometime in the future concerning travel to Cuba. So. . . what’s driving this? I have to believe that politicians, especially the President, don’t do anything without the input of a cadre of advisors and/or focus groups. Was it just a matter that they realize that nobody really cares about it anymore (or really understands exactly why it’s still in place)? I think in the past that a lot of opposition to lifting the embargo was due to not wanting to tick off the large contingent of ex-Cubans in Florida, and maybe politicians think they’re not so much an issue now? Yeah, I realize we’re still a long way to regularly scheduled no-red-tape travel to Cuba, but this seems to be more evidence that the current model is starting to show some cracks. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/2 "2015-08-20T18:08:45Z")
Well, before Obama we had a Republican president for eight years and the Cubans in Florida are/were a GOP voting bloc. So I’m sure that was part of it. My understanding though is that the growing number of _children_ of Cuban refugees are getting older and don’t hold the same opinions about Castro and Cuba. So, from that perspective, the people you’re pissing off weren’t voting Democratic anyway and their kids won’t NOT-vote Democratic based on this issue. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/3 "2015-08-20T18:15:40Z")
The fact that our Cuba policy was basically a Cold War relic that hadn’t accomplished much in 50 years was one factor, as was the aging of the Castros. Apparently the [Pope](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/17/us-cuba-pope-franicis-key-roles) also played a key role in the behind-the-scenes diplomacy. ---
**Author:** ![FairyChatMom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fairychatmom/32/21906_2.png) [@FairyChatMom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FairyChatMom)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/4 "2015-08-20T18:48:49Z")
Maybe this president finally realized how stupid the policy was? Open the door to Cuba and see how long it takes for American businesses to settle in, and how long it takes for Cubans to decide their lives are better with golden arches and designer coffee. OK, maybe that’s overly simplistic, but really, this was long overdue. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/5 "2015-08-20T20:12:56Z")
Yea, seems more puzzling why our backwards Cuba policy lasted as long as it did, rather than why its fading away now. We made nice with Vietnam after just two decades, despite a similarly sized diaspora community and far more reason for bad blood. China took three decades, despite the fact that “loosing China” was far more of a political mindfield than the loss of Cuba. But for some reason maintaining the Cuban embargo has been a political priority for a large enough segment of the population to keep it going decades after it became clear that it wasn’t doing anything other than punishing the population of Cuba, the bulk of which presumably were born long after Castro came to power. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/6 "2015-08-20T23:22:25Z")
I thought it sounded silly when it was put in place, but what was I? Seven? Fidel to me was the guy with the fatigues and a cool beard. I did not know at the time about how he abused the entire population of Cuba by making them listen to four-hour speeches all the time. He’s history’s greatest monster! Wait, that was Carter, wasn’t it? Okay, it was neither of them, not even when one was taking over Grenada and the other was giving away the Panama Canal. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/7 "2015-08-20T23:32:42Z")
> [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](#): > > There was a report earlier this week in WSJ about some additional travel restrictions being eased sometime in the future concerning travel to Cuba. So. . . what’s driving this? I have to believe that politicians, especially the President, don’t do anything without the input of a cadre of advisors and/or focus groups. Was it just a matter that they realize that nobody really cares about it anymore (or really understands exactly why it’s still in place)? I think in the past that a lot of opposition to lifting the embargo was due to not wanting to tick off the large contingent of ex-Cubans in Florida, and maybe politicians think they’re not so much an issue now? > > Yeah, I realize we’re still a long way to regularly scheduled no-red-tape travel to Cuba, but this seems to be more evidence that the current model is starting to show some cracks. Yeah, it’s only a matter of time now. The whole in the dike is open and no one is going to stop it now…not unless Cuba does something incredibly stupid. Part of it is as folks say…it’s overdue. I think part of that is that no one has really cared enough to push for it. It just wasn’t on most American’s radar, so no one cared enough one way or the other about it to change the status quo. Part of it is that the Cuban exiles are definitely getting long in the tooth at this point…hell, their kids are getting long in the tooth. Part of it is that Cuba has pretty much gone quiescent in the past decade or so…in the past Cuba was a major thorn in our side, spreading revolution and arms and rhetoric all over the place. Once the Soviet Union went tits up, though, the gravy train stopped, so they have pretty much calmed down. Part of it is just that the cold war is over, has been over, and as noted, few care anymore…so, why not push for it? I think even the Republican rhetoric on this is simply to be contentious with Obama and the Democrats…I doubt many of them really care one way or the other. So, in a way, it was an accident of history…but in another way, it was Obama seeing an opportunity and taking it. It was going to happen at some point in the next 10 years…my guess is, had Obama not pushed, it probably would have ground on for a bit longer, until the Castro boys shuffled off. Then it would have happened at that point, regardless. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/8 "2015-08-20T23:45:23Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Yeah, it’s only a matter of time now. The whole in the dike is open and no one is going to stop it now…not unless Cuba does something incredibly stupid. Well, I thought\* El Jefe’s\* birthday announcement that America should pay compensation for the Blockade was incredibly ill-timed. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2015, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/9 "2015-08-21T00:09:11Z")
As I understand it, even before Raul took over, Cuba had been kissing non-Floridian political butt in an effort to shift national US attitudes. Once the overall attitude went even to neutral everywhere but Miami, a lame duck president could make the change without hiring his party much. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2015, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/10 "2015-08-21T00:10:15Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Well, before Obama we had a Republican president for eight years and the Cubans in Florida are/were a GOP voting bloc. So I’m sure that was part of it. My understanding though is that the growing number of _children_ of Cuban refugees are getting older and don’t hold the same opinions about Castro and Cuba. So, from that perspective, the people you’re pissing off weren’t voting Democratic anyway and their kids won’t NOT-vote Democratic based on this issue. On top of that, the Cubans in FL are now outnumbered by the rest of the Latino groups. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2015, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/11 "2015-08-21T13:27:16Z")
The interesting part is coming-settling claims against the Cuban regime for lost/stolen property. The Bacardi family alone lost properties worth over $100 million. Of course, the Cuban regime is broke-which is why they now want relations with the USA. And what about the Mob-owned casinos and hotels in Havana? The generation of crooks that owned them is now long dead. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2015, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/12 "2015-08-21T13:42:29Z")
Compensation is a dead issue. You’ll see reparations to African-Americans in this country before you’ll see Cuba pay Bacardi et al. Tough tits for them - shit happens. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2015, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-cuba-accident-of-history/728366/13 "2015-08-21T20:49:23Z")
You could pretty much assume that a shift like this would only happen in the final two years of a lame duck presidency (after the midterm elections). And the farther from the next election the better. The next issue is the political leaning of the PotUS at the time. While a Democrat seems a given, one can imagine a Republican pulling a “Nixon in China”. But keep in mind that Nixon was viewed as too liberal (!) by the Goldwater arm of the GOP back then. And the Goldwater arm today would be viewed as liberal themselves by the core GOP. So the chances of their being an accommodating GOP PotUS is really small. Thirdly, the waning power of hardcore anti-Castro people vs. everybody else among the Latino community who favor less bombastic approaches. The demographics have changed. Being hard on Cuba is viewed as being anti-Hispanic by many. So, the Republicans will complain a lot, but not really take serious countermeasures for fear of losing even more Hispanic voters. Things have sort of melded together for this to be a suitable time.