# Obama and McCain spar for Hispanic support **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 15, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521 "2008-07-15T01:00:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/1 "2008-07-15T01:00:44Z")
[Obama’s pitch.](http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20080713-9999-1b13obama1.html) > [@](#): > > Sen. Barack Obama promised Sunday he would make immigration reform a top priority of his first year in office if he is elected president as he chided Republican John McCain for backing away from his own comprehensive immigration bill. … [McCain’s.](http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080714/D91TC4OO0.html) > [@](#): > > John McCain says he has earned the trust of Hispanic voters by championing an immigration reform bill that nearly killed his presidential bid. > The Republican presidential candidate also says, in remarks prepared for delivery Monday in San Diego, that Democrat Barack Obama failed to take a similar stand on the politically explosive issue of illegal immigration. … “I do ask for your trust that when I say, I remain committed to fair, practical and comprehensive immigration reform, I mean it. I think I have earned that trust,” McCain said. > Since the defeat of the immigration reform bill, McCain has tried to make peace with critics in his party by stressing the need for border security before creating a path to citizenship. > While he worked with Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy on immigration reform, McCain said, “Senator Obama declined to cast some of those tough votes. He voted for and even sponsored amendments that were intended to kill the legislation.” Will McCain make inroads or just po his conservative base? ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/2 "2008-07-15T01:24:43Z")
Neither candidate is attractive to hispanics. Why should a hispanic vote for Obama over McCain? Neither candidate is particularly soft on immigration. In fact, Obama’s position on immigration more closely resembles Bush’s immigration stance than McCain’s stated policy does. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/3 "2008-07-15T01:38:59Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] Neither candidate is attractive to hispanics. Why should a hispanic vote for Obama over McCain? Neither candidate is particularly soft on immigration. In fact, Obama’s position on immigration more closely resembles Bush’s immigration stance than McCain’s stated policy does. [/QUOTE] His immigration stance was one of the very few things i ever agreed with Bush on, and it used to closely match McCains. McCain really can’t win here, he could have gotten a lot of the latino votes if he stuck with his original proposal but theres no way he could do that without pissing off his base. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/4 "2008-07-15T03:56:41Z")
McCain is foolishly pandering to a group that isn’t going to vote for him. George W. Bush has long done the same. Hispanics tend not to vote in large numbers. When they vote at all, they tend to vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats, largely because the Democrats offer more in the way of financial benefits. The Hispanic vote will not be large or significant this time out- but the few Hispanics who DO vote are going to vote for Obama. McCain would be foolish to spend more than the bare minimum amount of time and money wooing them. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/5 "2008-07-15T05:37:00Z")
[QUOTE=astorian] The Hispanic vote will not be large or significant this time out- [/QUOTE] I have pointed this out previously in [the “Will Texas turn blue?” thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=474534&page=1&pp=50) but so far they seem quite energized. [Pew](http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf) (pdf) gives some numbers. While all-comers Dem turn-out was huge this year, it was even more increased among the Latino population. Up from 2004’s numbers as a percentage of the total in 16 out of 19 states. Up from 16 to 30% in California. Up from 24 to 32% in Texas - which, given the larger turnout translates to an increase from 200K to 900K! Major voter registration drives are in progress outside of the partisan campaigns. Hard to conclude with confidence that this demographic will be neither large or significant in at least some states this time out. So far the polling data shows this population going for Obama 2 to 1 but McCain clearly hopes to make inroads. Thing is that Obama can be consistent with his message of border control and immigration reform while McCain can court the Hispanic vote only so far before he has to pander back to the Right. Will he satisfy one, the other, both or neither? He risks making neither happy as he struggles to find a point of balance. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/6 "2008-07-15T05:55:41Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I have pointed this out previously in [the “Will Texas turn blue?” thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=474534&page=1&pp=50) but so far they seem quite energized. [Pew](http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf) (pdf) gives some numbers. While all-comers Dem turn-out was huge this year, it was even more increased among the Latino population. Up from 2004’s numbers as a percentage of the total in 16 out of 19 states. Up from 16 to 30% in California. Up from 24 to 32% in Texas - which, given the larger turnout translates to an increase from 200K to 900K! Major voter registration drives are in progress outside of the partisan campaigns. Hard to conclude with confidence that this demographic will be neither large or significant in at least some states this time out. So far the polling data shows this population going for Obama 2 to 1 but McCain clearly hopes to make inroads. Thing is that Obama can be consistent with his message of border control and immigration reform while McCain can court the Hispanic vote only so far before he has to pander back to the Right. Will he satisfy one, the other, both or neither? He risks making neither happy as he struggles to find a point of balance. [/QUOTE] All of those hispanics turned out in the primaries to vote for HILLARY. They are absolutely not excited about Obama, and the only reason they’re splitting “2 for 1” for him is that lots of them think McCain is even worse. People don’t like turning up on voting day to vote for the lesser of two evils, and I think if you expect hispanics to turn out for the general election in the same numbers they did for the primaries, you’re going to be greatly disappointed. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/7 "2008-07-15T09:59:47Z")
In what states is this really going to matter? Right now, I can safely say that CA goes Obama, AZ goes McCain, TX goes McCain. That leaves NM and then maybe NV and CO as states where Hispanics could influence the vote. If Obama picks Richardson, then he can count on NM. NV and CO aren’t going to carry this election either way. The battles will still be fought in the Midwest. Florida is a unique case as the Cuban population is overwhelmingly Republican. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/8 "2008-07-15T12:01:08Z")
Something else to remember before we get too excited about the increased turnout in the Texas Democratic primary: Party nominations are almost always sewn up long before the Texas primaries are held. Not surprisingly, turnout tends to be low, because it’s usually irrelevant. The GOP turnout was pitiful this year because McCain already had it in the bag. The Democrats in Texas weren’t energized because they loved Hillary or Obama so much- it’s because, for a change, the race was very close and their vote actually mattered! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/9 "2008-07-15T12:34:54Z")
Richardson currently seems like a longshot and I certainly wouldn’t assume him as VP. So yes NM, NV, CO … 19 EVs between 'em … in those the Hispanic vote is pivotal and a solid lead in that demographic, especially with a good turn-out, would be killer. FL? You’re likely correct, I doubt that the general Hispanic numbers translate there where the Cuban vote is so big… we’ll leave FL out of this analysis for now. TX I for one do not entirely write off with a huge Hispanic turnout and an apathetic Texas GOP uninspired by McCain for multiple reasons (which is not outside of possibility) but TX is unlikely to tip things - if Obama wins there then he is likely winning everywhere. Could those three (NM, V, CO) be “tipping states”? Well if Obama only otherwise carries those states that Kerry won, and loses OH, FL, MO, IO, etc. while carrying that bloc of three - then Obama still wins. If he takes Kerry states except he loses NH and wins IO (c.w. currently leranings in polls) Obama wins with those three. Yes, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and so on are important. But those three are polling close and could be the states that swing an election. **astorian** why them so much more so than other Democrats? Up from 24% to 34% of the Democratic turnout. That means that non-Hispanic Democratic turnout decreased in percent of the total from 76% to just 56% of the total. Yoour explanation just doesn’t wash. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2008, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/10 "2008-07-18T00:20:49Z")
An [interesting analysis](http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/07/presidential-election-analysis.html) that shows how NM, CO, and NV (and hence the Hispanic turnout) could be critical. > [@](#): > > … if he loses Ohio, here’s where the “map expansion” comes into play. First, lets ignore Indiana and Missouri, because if he wins them, he’s probably won enough other states to be over the top anyway. And lets give him Iowa, where’s he’s now up by 10 points, moving him to 259 EVs. So he needs 11 EVs from: > > Colorado 9 > Nevada 5 > New Mexico 5 > Virginia 13 > > Giving him NM leaves him 6 EVs short, so he would need CO or VA to win, and NV to tie. > > Lose NM, and he needs 11 EVs from CO (9), NV (5) and VA (13). > > So I think here’s the combinations of states that will win for Obama: > > 1. Ohio > 2. Iowa, New Mexico, and (Colorado or Virginia) > 3. Iowa and Virginia or (Colorado and Nevada) A strong Hispanic turnout voting strongly for Obama would assure him of victories in CO and NM which gives him a fail-safe if he loses OH and the election is otherwise close. ---
**Author:** ![9thFloor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/9/b487fb/32.png) [@9thFloor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/9thFloor)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2008, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/11 "2008-07-18T12:49:46Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] [Obama’s pitch.](http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20080713-9999-1b13obama1.html) [McCain’s.](http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080714/D91TC4OO0.html) Will McCain make inroads or just po his conservative base? [/QUOTE] He will make inroads. Hispanics, especially immigrants like members of my family, respect age (rather than merely finding it funny) and seniority, respect military service, are socially conservative to a greater degree than others, and – as pointed out in TX in the primaries – often feel that black minorities get more attention when it comes to set asides and social engineering issues. They are also drawn to auras of sincerity and honor (McCain, deservedly or not) over snarkiness and smug sarcasm (Obama, very deservedly). Policies, you say? If elections were about policies only, Obama wouldn’t be the nominee and pro-life candidates would never have won. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-and-mccain-spar-for-hispanic-support/456521/12 "2008-07-24T17:19:01Z")
Update: [Obama now leads McCain among Hispanics by nearly 3 to 1.](http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5905184.html) > [@](#): > > … 66 percent to 23 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain. > > The Democratic tide in the Latino community is so strong that Obama leads among every nationality group, including the historically Republican Cuban-American population, where Obama now leads, 53 percent to 29 percent. > > The Illinois Democrat is running far ahead among Mexican-Americans, who cast about 40 percent of their ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Among voters of Mexican ancestry, Obama leads McCain, 70 percent to 21 percent. > > Obama is running so far ahead that he has the support of 25 percent of Hispanics who identify themselves as Republicans and holds an edge of about 5-to-1 among Latinos who consider themselves political independents. Yes, that’s right, Obama is even taking the Cuban American demographic handily.