# Obama: "...by the end of my first term..." **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 25, 2009, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668 "2009-03-25T00:10:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Diz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/87869e/32.png) [@Diz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diz)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/21 "2009-03-25T06:31:12Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > BTW, ‘slashing the deficit by the end of my first term’ is misleading anyway, because he neglects to tell you that it starts to go [right back up again](http://blog.heritage.org/2009/03/24/bush-deficit-vs-obama-deficit-in-pictures/). > > Have a look at that graph, people. Compare the Bush deficits to Obama’s. Remember Bush, the guy the liberals said was going to bankrupt the country with his profiglate spending? Well, look at the graph. Compare and contrast. Where’s the party of fiscal responsibility now? You conveniently failed to mention that Obama’s budget projections don’t include the gimmicks that Bush used to “hide” some of his spending. The Obama budgets actually include things like the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. And the blame for the monstrous 2009 deficit can hardly be placed solely on Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 8:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/22 "2009-03-25T08:20:21Z")
> [@Diz](#): > > You conveniently failed to mention that Obama’s budget projections don’t include the gimmicks that Bush used to “hide” some of his spending. The Obama budgets actually include things like the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. No, actually they don’t. Or not all of it, anyway. One of the ‘tricks’ Obama played was to baseline the Iraq budget by assuming the current level of spending will continue unchanged for ten years - something no one believed or planned for. Then he ‘cut’ it by including only the spending that matches the withdrawal plan that was already in place under Bush, and called the difference a ‘budget cut’. He did this so that he could increase the budget in many other places and still claim that he was somehow controlling spending. It was a dishonest trick. Another ‘trick’ is to assume for budgetary purposes that the economy will only decline 1.2% this year, and will grow at over 3% next year and over 4% for the next three years after that. NO ONE outside the White House believes this will be the case. Obama himself said just tonight that this will be a long recession. Except his own budget says there will be not just modest growth next year, but quite excellent growth, and getting better each year thereafter. Even the CBO’s projections are considered optimistic by some, and they’re saying Obama’s administration underestimated the deficit by 2.3 trillion dollars - not exactly chump change. > [@](#): > > And the blame for the monstrous 2009 deficit can hardly be placed solely on Obama. Not all of it, no. With this recession, any president would have busted the budget. But Obama is piling on. You agree that the 2009 deficit is ‘monstrous’ - how then could you possibly justify trillions of dollars in new optional program spending? 634 billion for new health care spending alone. _Doubling_ the size of the Department of Education, after Bush almost doubled it himself in the past 8 years. The CBO projects that the debt will be increased by 9.3 trillion dollars over the next decade. It could easily have been half to two thirds of that if Obama and the Congress hadn’t gone on a liberal shopping spree. The dollar is already under extreme pressure. Large increases in social spending simply cannot be justified under these economic conditions. You’ve basically bet your economic future on the Chinese and others continuing to buy what looks like increasingly shaky U.S. debt. If they stop, either because they flee to a new reserve currency or because their own economies crash and they have no money to spend, the U.S. will be in a world of hurt. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/23 "2009-03-25T09:49:38Z")
> [@Randy\_Seltzer](#): > > I guess you’re right. I’m trying to put my finger on the reason Obama’s comment seemed so odd to me while Clinton’s doesn’t. And I think it’s that Obama’s comment was from his prepared speech, read from the teleprompter, while Clinton’s was off the cuff. Clinton’s could be chalked up to a gaffe, while Obama’s couldn’t. I mean, if you have time to think about what you’re going to say and write it beforehand, why not participate in the traditional polite fiction that your second term will be contested? Jesus Christ. Is this the level conservatives are going to nit-pick on? I tell you what - I’ll send him an email asking him to make sure he uses the phrase ‘my only term’ from now on. Happy now? ---
**Author:** ![Monster104](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Monster104](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monster104)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/24 "2009-03-25T10:47:33Z")
I don’t think it’s out of place at all for a President to sound confident that he will win re-election, and thus use the phrase “…my first term…”. If any President _didn’t_ do that, he would appear to lack goals, lack a strong plan/agenda, or to be weak/indecisive/aimless. But, like **Sam Stone** I think Obama’s claims of what he will accomplish by the end of his first term are pretty outlandish once you look at the facts - yeah, he’s going to slash the massive deficits that he pretty much created in the first place, so that they’re to a point where they’re still way worse than they were before? Gee, thanks Mr. President… ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/25 "2009-03-25T11:59:16Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > No, actually they don’t. Or not all of it, anyway. So you do admit Obama is is more transparent in this respect? ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/26 "2009-03-25T12:34:57Z")
It’s frankly ridiculous to be pointing to deficit spending as the problem right now. The Bush economy that **Sam Stone** has been touting for 8 years produced a **6.2% drop** in GDP in the last quarter of 2008 - **6.2%!** We haven’t seen the economy fall off the cliff like that in a quarter century. So, yeah, bookmark this thread for a number of reasons. One of them being as a good example of the kind of Neo-Hooverism that grabbed hold of the party of no ideas in the latter years of the first decade of the 21st century. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/27 "2009-03-25T12:39:12Z")
I would think **Sam Stone** would be a little gunshy about making any more long term predictions, considering his track record. How that’s Iraq War going for you, **Sam**? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/28 "2009-03-25T12:44:11Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Why would anyone be upset by using the phrase “by the end of my first term”? I think everyone knows it’s a Democracy. No one is expecting him to declare himself king. But every president hopes to win a second term, with rare exceptions… Hell, I can’t think of ANY exceptions. I guess you could argue LBJ, who was eligible to run again and bowed out, but you could also argue that would have been his third term. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/29 "2009-03-25T13:03:33Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > It’s frankly ridiculous to be pointing to deficit spending as the problem right now. “Right now” being defined as “with a Democrat in the White House and in control of Congress”. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![hobscrk777](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a6a055/32.png) [@hobscrk777](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hobscrk777)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/30 "2009-03-25T13:05:07Z")
How is what Obama said presumptuous - in any way, shape, or form? As several posters have already said, _regardless_of whether he serves one term, two terms, or establishes a dictatorship and serves 5 terms, this is his _first_ term! ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/31 "2009-03-25T13:33:36Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > “Right now” being defined as “with a Democrat in the White House and in control of Congress”. > > Regards, > Shodan Exactly. Thankfully we can start recovering from this mess instead of continuing to dig the hole deeper, or as you might prefer, make the pie higher. ---
**Author:** ![Monster104](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Monster104](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monster104)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/32 "2009-03-25T15:09:46Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Exactly. Thankfully we can start recovering from this mess instead of continuing to dig the hole deeper, or as you might prefer, make the pie higher. Um, the Dems _are_ digging the hole deeper… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/33 "2009-03-25T15:14:27Z")
> [@Monster104](#): > > Um, the Dems _are_ digging the hole deeper… :dubious: No. They are trying to fill the gaping hole left by the destruction of a huge portion of the world’s wealth. Not that what they are trying will work. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/34 "2009-03-25T15:24:27Z")
> [@Monster104](#): > > Um, the Dems _are_ digging the hole deeper… :dubious: I guess a little education is in order. Krugman’s always a good way to go about that in a concise fashion: [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/opinion/01krugman.html?\_r=2&ref=opinion](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/opinion/01krugman.html?_r=2&ref=opinion) > [@](#): > > […]But the deficit worriers have it all wrong. Under current conditions, there’s no trade-off between what’s good in the short run and what’s good for the long run; strong fiscal expansion would actually enhance the economy’s long-run prospects. […] > > The idea that tight fiscal policy when the economy is depressed actually reduces private investment isn’t just a hypothetical argument: it’s exactly what happened in two important episodes in history. > > The first took place in 1937, when Franklin Roosevelt mistakenly heeded the advice of his own era’s deficit worriers. He sharply reduced government spending, among other things cutting the Works Progress Administration in half, and also raised taxes. The result was a severe recession, and a steep fall in private investment. > > The second episode took place 60 years later, in Japan. In 1996-97 the Japanese government tried to balance its budget, cutting spending and raising taxes. And again the recession that followed led to a steep fall in private investment. ---
**Author:** ![Randy\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ee7513/32.png) [@Randy\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Randy_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/35 "2009-03-25T15:27:12Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > Jesus Christ. Is this the level conservatives are going to nit-pick on? I tell you what - I’ll send him an email asking him to make sure he uses the phrase ‘my only term’ from now on. > > Happy now? What makes you think I’m unhappy? The phrase struck me as odd, and I wanted to discuss the politics of such a statement. That’s all. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/36 "2009-03-25T15:30:17Z")
> [@Randy\_Seltzer](#): > > What makes you think I’m unhappy? The phrase struck me as odd, and I wanted to discuss the politics of such a statement. That’s all. Yea right. You were given the explanation and shown examples. That you consider to find it somehow odd is just your agenda showing. ---
**Author:** ![Randy\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ee7513/32.png) [@Randy\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Randy_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/37 "2009-03-25T15:38:10Z")
Agenda? Am I also a witch? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/38 "2009-03-25T15:39:02Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Exactly. Thankfully we can start recovering from this mess instead of continuing to dig the hole deeper, or as you might prefer, make the pie higher. AKA IOKIADDI. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/39 "2009-03-25T15:39:51Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > No. They are trying to fill the gaping hole left by the destruction of a huge portion of the world’s wealth. Not that what they are trying will work. In what way does doubling the size of the Department of Education or spending 634 billion dollars on health care _long after Obama’s own budget says the economy will be growing rapidly_ do this? Some of us aren’t buying the Jedi mind trick of saying that, since a stimulus is needed, ANY spending is therefore justified. That’s the nonsense Krugman is trying to pull in Hentor’s link. The huge deficits under Obama are not due to his stimulus package - that’s only 900 billion of the 9.3 trillion he’s going to rack up. The majority of the increase comes from added program spending in numerous government departments, AFTER the economy has recovered. At least, we’d better hope it has recovered. Because if it hasn’t, Obama’s deficits will be dramatically larger. There is no way in hell you can justify giving 70 billion dollars to the Department of Eduction in 2017 as part of today’s fiscal stimulus. In fact, Obama’s huge out-year budgets are ANTI-stimulative, for reasons of Ricardian Equivalence (people don’t spend today’s stimulus as much if they believe it will be accompanied by higher taxes in the future). If you really want to stimulate the economy today, you borrow money and hand it out NOW, but you also show a fiscal plan to control spending in the future so that people don’t just hoard the money in expectation of a financial crunch later on. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668/40 "2009-03-25T16:02:04Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Slash the deficit my ass. **Excuse me?** How good did your President do? We were how much better off before Dubya started? How much did he spend? Make sure you get it right, and account Clinton’s surplus, when you also count the debt that Dubya left us. How much did he spend off book on a war that was Mission Acomplished how many years ago? (If that war had ended when he thought it did, you _might_ have a leg to stand on.) However, it was just another in a long, long lines of blunders from the worst president in history. **Stop blaming Obama for the incompetence that came immediately before him.** You have to break eggs to make omelettes. > [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Right. Presidents always do that, because of course they all figure they’re popular and expect to be reelected. It’s sort of the kind of arrogance that comes with being president. I think it is three equal parts: 1. Part ““The Secret”” / Positive Thinking / Prayer. ((I strongly believe these are conencted. Obama is basically asking “Will you let me stay 4 more years?” 2. Part good politics. I think Obama is trying to get us used to the Idea of him sticking around. Make no mistake, there is a psychological aspect to it. 3. Part being President / Arrogance. If you can call it that. Understand what I am saying here: I strongly believe that EVERYONE that runs for president has to have something off balance mentally. At a certain point in time, a “normal” person would not want the responsibility of the office. --Put another way, it takes something extra, something truly abnormal [by definition] to decide to get in the race, and win. I think we can both agree that the President is often faced with tough decisions. The best Presidents rise to the occasion in such times. However, only a few of them come out on the other side better for it, with the country better for it as well. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-by-the-end-of-my-first-term/490668.md?page=3)