# Obama leading in North Dakota - Is this possible? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 17, 2008, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388 "2008-10-17T16:12:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![TV\_time](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f17d59/32.png) [@TV\_time](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TV_time)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/1 "2008-10-17T16:12:13Z")
The last couple of months I have become a poll watcher and have seen some strange things happen, but none stranger than North Dakota. I have seen McCain’s lead go from 15 (or so) to Obama leading by two or three. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nd/north\_dakota\_mccain\_vs\_obama-618.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nd/north_dakota_mccain_vs_obama-618.html) I am having trouble believing this. There are so many things that make this illogical. I know North Dakota. There are few states I know of that are more conservative. It’s location would seem to keep it McCain. It is a farm demographic, and if anyone could identify with Sara Palin, it would seen ti be North Dakotans. So how did this happen? Fifth columnists from Minnesota? Invaders from Canada disguised as North Dakotans intent on disrupting the election? Since global warming has so affected the temperature people from New England moving to the Dakota’s since the area has become the new sun belt? What? Or are the Democrats jamming the pollesters telephones and feeding them the wrong information? ---
**Author:** ![CandidGamera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/candidgamera/32/2878_2.png) [@CandidGamera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CandidGamera)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/2 "2008-10-17T16:15:39Z")
Well, could be some variance in the polls. I also have the (possibly erroneous) idea that folk in the MidWest tend to be small government conservatives to a greater degree than culture war conservatives, but I don’t know. Does North Dakota grow corn? McCain’s anti-ethanol subsidy stance could be costing him. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/3 "2008-10-17T16:29:12Z")
A tidal shift is not uncommon before an election. This season it happens to be for the democrats. On NPR this morning they had a conservative columnist from Missouri being interviewed. He was asked what could McCain do to pull this off. After a long speil about where the country is going he basically said people are worried about their pocket-books and the last 4 years is fresh on everyones mind. The tide is changing quickly, and there is a possibility for a real electoral landslide. No doubt the entire GOP will point fingers at Palin, but in the end, books are already being written about Obama and his unstoppable campaign machine. I just cannot wait to see what he can do with the country - especially if we get a filibuster proof congress. ---
**Author:** ![davidw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@davidw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidw)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/4 "2008-10-17T16:32:25Z")
I don’t know about North Dakota specifically, but I know that liberal blogs have been talking for a few years about the Northwest becoming more Democratic. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/5 "2008-10-17T16:41:39Z")
> [@CandidGamera](#): > > Well, could be some variance in the polls. I also have the (possibly erroneous) idea that folk in the MidWest tend to be small government conservatives to a greater degree than culture war conservatives, but I don’t know. > > Does North Dakota grow corn? McCain’s anti-ethanol subsidy stance could be costing him. North Dakota is predominantly a wheat state. I don’t know why Obama is ahead there. Bush won by a mile there in '04. Abortion is a huge issue in that state so I think McCain will pull it out in the end. ---
**Author:** ![sqweels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f19dbf/32.png) [@sqweels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sqweels)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/6 "2008-10-17T16:44:49Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Abortion is a huge issue in that state so I think McCain will pull it out in the end. How many abortion clinics are even in ND? ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/7 "2008-10-17T16:44:51Z")
No corn, sugar beets on the Eastern end and wheat and sunflowers to the West. I think you need to give North Dakotan’s more credit, just because Palin has a good Midwestern act doesn’t mean everyone’s going to fall for it. More to the point, farmer’s are business people and rely on credit to operate. They have to want the person they perceive as most able to find a way though our financial morass as much as anyone else. ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/8 "2008-10-17T16:48:36Z")
> [@sqweels](#): > > How many abortion clinics are even in ND? Well, there are no Planned Parenthood Clinics. ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/9 "2008-10-17T16:51:42Z")
Perhaps McCain is not campaigning there at all, while Obama is. I can understand why McCain is not campaigning, given limited resources – it’s only 3 votes, and if he loses North Dakota, it must be a landslide for Obama in the more important states like Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/10 "2008-10-17T19:06:52Z")
> [@sqweels](#): > > How many abortion clinics are even in ND? One. Same as South Dakota. > [@Giles](#): > > Perhaps McCain is not campaigning there at all, while Obama is. I can understand why McCain is not campaigning, given limited resources – it’s only 3 votes, and if he loses North Dakota, it must be a landslide for Obama in the more important states like Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Obama shut down his campaign there some time ago. No one is really going after the state right now. 3 votes won’t likely matter. The thing is that no one ever campaigns there, but Republicans win with ease every time. So what’s different this time around? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/11 "2008-10-17T19:12:40Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Abortion is a huge issue in that state so I think McCain will **pull it out in the end.** [insert your own incredibly tasteless, gross and offensive abortion joke here] ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/12 "2008-10-17T19:21:59Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [insert your own incredibly tasteless, gross and offensive abortion joke here] If he had pulled out before the end he wouldn’t have needed an abortion. Wait, was that a hypothetical? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/13 "2008-10-17T19:22:04Z")
It’s not the first time ND has gone blue, although it’s been red in recent weeks. Awhile back, both Montana and North Dakota were oscillating from red to dead-even white to blue and definitely looked like possible pickoffs for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/14 "2008-10-17T19:30:07Z")
[fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) still has North Dakota with an 83% chance of voting for McCain. It’s not going to go for Obama. On the other hand, that’s the closest of any state in that group they have leaning towards Obama. They have Kansas and Nebraska as 100% chance for McCain, and South Dakota is 93% likely to go to McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/15 "2008-10-17T19:32:22Z")
> [@TV\_time](#): > > It’s location would seem to keep it McCain. It is a farm demographic, and if anyone could identify with Sara Palin, it would seen ti be North Dakotans. How sad for the people of Alaska… ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/16 "2008-10-17T19:33:27Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > So what’s different this time around? Nothing. North Dakota isn’t going to vote for Obama. The only difference is that polls are even less reliable now than they were in the previous 2 elections. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/17 "2008-10-17T19:37:35Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > One. Same as South Dakota. > > Obama shut down his campaign there some time ago. No one is really going after the state right now. 3 votes won’t likely matter. The thing is that no one ever campaigns there, but Republicans win with ease every time. So what’s different this time around? Obama’s been there three times, though. That’s very unusual. Presidential candidates _never_ go to ND. I lived in that state for years. My wife was born and raised there. It’s as socially conservative a state as you’ll ever find and I would be shocked to see any Democrat win it, but one thing that should be kept in mind is that all three of North Dakota’s Congressional delegates (both Senators and ND’s one Rep.) are Democrats. The reason is farm subsidies. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/18 "2008-10-17T20:34:55Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > Nothing. North Dakota isn’t going to vote for Obama. The only difference is that polls are even less reliable now than they were in the previous 2 elections. Why do you say that? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/19 "2008-10-17T21:07:27Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Why do you say that? Because truth has been revealed to him and anything that is inconsistent with that revealed truth is heresy. 🙂 Actually ND is fairly sparsely polled and while the results showing big McCain leads are older, it will take more than one or two polls showing narrow Obama leads to believe the new ones after those older results with such big McCain advantages. That’s why 538 still models it as a long shot too, going hard by the number crunching. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2008, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388/20 "2008-10-17T21:09:00Z")
It depends on where they poll too. If they disproportionately poll the college towns (Grand Forks and Fargo), that could potentially skew the results. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leading-in-north-dakota-is-this-possible/468388.md?page=2)