# Obama leads in delegate count **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 7, 2008, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633 "2008-02-07T03:09:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2008, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/141 "2008-02-12T20:08:27Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] ::twirls moustache:: heh heh heh heh [/QUOTE] :eek: ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2008, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/142 "2008-02-12T20:29:46Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Here’s the names, at least: [Superdelegates who’ve endorsed a candidate](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html) [Superdelegates who haven’t endorsed a candidate](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegates-who-havent-endorsed.html) [/QUOTE] Yeah, I know it’s out there if you look for it; I’d like for it to be available someplace where the average lazy person couldn’t help but notice. Most people won’t go tooling around the blogosphere for that. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/143 "2008-02-13T03:17:01Z")
With today’s 3 primaries firmly on Obama’s side, the total delegate count as of this posting, _including_ superdelegates is: Obama - 1,223 Clinton - 1,161 Putting him ahead by 62 delegates. When you take the superdelegates out of the picture, since they can switch at any time for any reason, his lead is much more substantial: Obama - 1,082 Clinton — 951 Difference: 131 (I’m using [this site](http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml) for my numbers, which is an active scorecard, so as the numbers change, so will that link, so what I posted above may not appear the same as the referenced site when viewed at a later date.) ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/144 "2008-02-13T03:29:33Z")
Hell, even CNN was finally forced to admit that Obama is leading in delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/earl_snake-hips_tucker/32/3269_2.png) [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earl_Snake-Hips_Tucker)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/145 "2008-02-13T03:39:32Z")
Just the cynic in me, but I think it’s an uphill battle for Obama. IMO, the superdelegates are there to provide an edge to the establishment candidate that is running, in this case Hilary. I’d think Obama pretty much has to run the tables to overcome that advantage. I’m actually surprised that he’s gotten as many superdelegates as he has. ---
**Author:** ![Spiny\_Norman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Spiny\_Norman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiny_Norman)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/146 "2008-02-13T03:47:31Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] ::twirls moustache:: heh heh heh heh [/QUOTE] **Ouch!** Leggo of my moustache! ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/147 "2008-02-13T03:51:05Z")
[QUOTE=Earl Snake-Hips Tucker] Just the cynic in me, but I think it’s an uphill battle for Obama. IMO, the superdelegates are there to provide an edge to the establishment candidate that is running, in this case Hilary. I’d think Obama pretty much has to run the tables to overcome that advantage. I’m actually surprised that he’s gotten as many superdelegates as he has. [/QUOTE] Not so. > [@](#): > > [The Seattle Times | Local news, sports, business, politics, entertainment, travel, restaurants and opinion for Seattle and the Pacific Northwest.](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2004179017_apondeadlineclinton12.html) > > Tuesday, February 12, 2008 - Page updated at 07:34 PM > ON DEADLINE: Chickens Come Home to Roost > > By RON FOURNIER > > Associated Press Writer > > For years, Bill and Hillary Clinton treated the Democratic National Committee and party activists as extensions of their White House ambitions, pawns in a game of success and survival. She may pay a high price for their selfishness soon. > > Top Democrats, including some inside Hillary Clinton’s campaign, say many party leaders \_ the so-called superdelegates \_ won’t hesitate to ditch the former New York senator for Barack Obama if her political problems persist. Their loyalty to the first couple is built on shaky ground. > > “If (Barack) Obama continues to win … the whole raison d’etre for her campaign falls apart and we’ll see people running from her campaign like rats on a ship,” said Democratic strategist Jim Duffy, who is not aligned with either campaign. > > \ > > And [the superdelegates] are not all super fans of the Clintons. > > Some are labor leaders still angry that Bill Clinton championed the North American Free Trade Agreement as part of his centrist agenda. > > Some are social activists who lobbied unsuccessfully to get him to veto welfare reform legislation, a talking point for his 1996 re-election campaign. > > Some served in Congress when the Clintons dismissed their advice on health care reform in 1993. Some called her a bully at the time. > > Some are DNC members who saw the party committee weakened under the Clintons and watched President Bush use the White House to build up the Republican National Committee. > > Some are senators who had to defend Clinton for lying to the country about his affair with Monica Lewinsky. > > Some are allies of former Vice President Al Gore who still believe the Lewinsky scandal cost him the presidency in 2000. > > \ > > The fear inside the Clinton camp is that Obama will win Hawaii and Wisconsin next week and head into the March 4 contests for Ohio and Texas with a 10-race winning streak. Her poll numbers will drop in Texas and Ohio, Clinton aides fear, and party leaders will start hankering for an end to the fight. > > Clinton should find little comfort in the fact that she has secured 242 superdelegates to Obama’s 160. > > “I would make the assumption that the … superdelegates she has now are the Clintons’ loyal base. A superdelegate who is uncommitted today is clearly going to wait and see how this plays out. She’s at her zenith now,” Duffy said. “Whatever political capital or IOUs that exist, she’s already collected.” > > Few Democrats want to cross the Clintons when they’re on top. But how many are willing to stand by them when they’re down? ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/148 "2008-02-13T03:53:54Z")
Yeah, but superdelegates, being party officials, will dislike a brokered convention because it’ll lead to massive dissent within the party. I think that even if the last primary ends with Obama having a substantial lead in pledged delegates, the party officials will fall in line. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/149 "2008-02-13T03:55:14Z")
Obama is up by a little more than 100 pledged delegates, depending on how you count things. If you estimate that the superdelegates would favor Clinton 500-300\*, he needs to widen his lead by maybe 100 delegates to sow it up even if it does go to those delegates. I think that’s doable. \*I continue to believe this race will be settled by the voters, not the superdelegates, and that most of the superdelegates will go for Obama if they think the voters have clearly chosen him because they will be told that a victory based only on superdelegates would be too reminiscent of Florida in 2000, and bad for the party. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/150 "2008-02-13T04:10:06Z")
This has probably been asked and answered elsewhere, but is there a breakdown of the superdelegates that are currently holding a public office or who are likely to run for public office in the future, regardless of their current or past offices? Is there palpable pressure for those delegates to pledge according to the popular vote or risk the wrath of their current (and potential future) districts/constituents? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/151 "2008-02-13T04:13:12Z")
Here’s a very useful chart: [Superdelegates - POLITICO.com](http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/) According to it, Clinton leads Obama by only 16 elected superdelegates (e.g. Govs, Senators, etc.). Her real lead is among DNC folks. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/152 "2008-02-13T22:45:33Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] With today’s 3 primaries firmly on Obama’s side, the total delegate count as of this posting, _including_ superdelegates is: Obama - 1,223 Clinton - 1,161 Putting him ahead by 62 delegates. When you take the superdelegates out of the picture, since they can switch at any time for any reason, his lead is much more substantial: Obama - 1,082 Clinton — 951 Difference: 131 (I’m using [this site](http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml) for my numbers, which is an active scorecard, so as the numbers change, so will that link, so what I posted above may not appear the same as the referenced site when viewed at a later date.) [/QUOTE] No offense, but your link currently shows Hillary leading in superdelegates by 210-141, which is the smallest lead I’ve seen for her anywhere. [this site](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html) shows her with a lead of 232-146, and it names each of those superdelegates, with each superdelegate name linked to a news source that verifies who they support. ---
**Author:** ![askeptic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@askeptic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/askeptic)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/153 "2008-02-13T23:29:51Z")
I think that if Obama wins the popular vote but HRC is put forward as the Democratic candidate it would mean the end of the Democratic party. They have to realize that Obama would have a real shot running as an independent. I voted for Hillary ( a decision I am coming to regret) but if she gets the nomination despite smaller popular vote I certainly would not vote for her EVEN IF BUSH WERE RUNNING AGAIN. I think we are gnashing our teeth prematurely, there is no way in hell the Democratic party (my party) would do this. (please let that be true) ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/154 "2008-02-14T00:45:16Z")
[QUOTE=askeptic] I think that if Obama wins the popular vote but HRC is put forward as the Democratic candidate it would mean the end of the Democratic party. They have to realize that Obama would have a real shot running as an independent. I voted for Hillary ( a decision I am coming to regret) but if she gets the nomination despite smaller popular vote I certainly would not vote for her EVEN IF BUSH WERE RUNNING AGAIN. I think we are gnashing our teeth prematurely, there is no way in hell the Democratic party (my party) would do this. (please let that be true) [/QUOTE] You are absolutely right. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/155 "2008-02-14T15:25:39Z")
Are there any post-Feb. 12 polls out for the coming states? ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/156 "2008-02-14T15:29:33Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Are there any post-Feb. 12 polls out for the coming states? [/QUOTE] Both Rasmussen and Strategic Vision have Obama up by 4 points in Wisconsin. [Cite](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_primary-270.html). However, it looks like Clinton still has a healthy (but shrinking) lead in Ohio. [Cite](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html). ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/157 "2008-02-14T17:53:51Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] Both Rasmussen and Strategic Vision have Obama up by 4 points in Wisconsin. [Cite](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_primary-270.html). However, it looks like Clinton still has a healthy (but shrinking) lead in Ohio. [Cite](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html). [/QUOTE] Ohio has [141 pledged delegates](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html). Not taking the proportionality by CD into account, since I wouldn’t begin to be able to do that without knowing how their CDs are divided, 54% of 141 is 76, and 37% for Obama would be 52, with 13 unaccounted for in this poll. That kind of win would bring her closer by 24 delegates, but it’s still not anywhere near what she’d need to surpass him. What everyone’s saying, and what her campaign is even acknowledging, is that she’ll need to win BIG in these states in order to even get close. Now they’re just working on the superdelegates, trying to convince them that somehow _her_ wins are of a better “quality” than his, so they should support her. > [@](#): > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/14/us/politics/14delegates.html?hp](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/14/us/politics/14delegates.html?hp) > > Mrs. Clinton’s aides said they would also argue to superdelegates that they should give less deference to a lead from Mr. Obama because much of that had been built up in states where there were caucuses, which tend to attract far fewer voters than primaries, where Mrs. Clinton has tended to do better than she has done in caucuses. > > “I think for superdelegates, the quality of where the win comes from should matter in terms of making a judgment about who might be the best general election candidate,” said Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s senior campaign adviser. On the good news front. . . ::dons cheerleader outfit, grabs pom pons:: [Former Republican U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee today endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president](http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/newsblog/archives/2008/02/hold_52.html). “In backing Obama, the former senator said the nation cannot afford another presidential election with two candidates who supported the war.” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/158 "2008-02-14T17:55:16Z")
[PA](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html): Clinton’s up by 16 in Quinnipiac poll. [NC](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html): Survey USA has Obama up by 10. AFAICT, nobody’s polled Texas yet. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/159 "2008-02-14T22:10:45Z")
More cheerleading \ “Christine “Roz” Samuels, a superdelegate from Montclair, New Jersey, who was supporting Hillary Clinton announced she was [now supporting Senator Barack Obama for President today](http://www.bluejersey.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6932).” “Texas House Democratic Leader Jim Dunnam announced today his [strong endorsement of Senator Barack Obama’s candidacy for President of the United States](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CscV).” “Former 71st District Assembly Rep. Stan Gruszynski of Stevens Point (WI), a superdelegate in the Democratic Party, has [announced his endorsement for Sen. Barack Obama for president](http://www.wausaudailyherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080214/WDH0101/80214058/1981).” ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/160 "2008-02-14T22:26:22Z")
It seems Clinton wants to be President of Texas, Ohio, New York and California whereas Obama wants to be President of the United States of America. Go Obama! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633.md?page=9)