# Obama leads in delegate count **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 7, 2008, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633 "2008-02-07T03:09:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/161 "2008-02-14T22:29:15Z")
Maybe Arlen Specter will endorse him next (yeah I know, unlikely, but I’m a PA boy and I’ve met the guy, so I wanna like him…) ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/162 "2008-02-14T22:34:00Z")
I’m looking into my crystal ball here… [QUOTE=Obama in the FUTURE] There are no big states, there are no small states. There are no important states, there are no unimportant states. There are the United States of America. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2008, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/163 "2008-02-14T23:56:05Z")
Anecdote from the ground in Ohio: > [@](#): > > [http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/just\_got\_back\_from\_the\_first\_obama\_organizational\_meeting\_in\_cincinnati](http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/just_got_back_from_the_first_obama_organizational_meeting_in_cincinnati) > > Cincinnatians who signed up on the Obama website were emailed by the campaign early today. The campaign wanted us to know that they had secured a location for their Cincinnati office, and, apologizing for the extra-short notice, wanted to let us know they were having their first official Organizational Meeting tonight, at 6:00 p.m. Since they were still having the heat turned on at the new headquarters, and expected big attendance, the meeting was held at Friendship Baptist Church, about 5 minutes from downtown. > > [aside: so basically, same day notice of this meeting] > > I won’t go into the details of the meeting, but when it was wrapping up, Bettina [Tsongas, daughter of [the late Paul Tsongas (D-MA)](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Tsongas)] told us that **they had made 700 copies of signup sheets, and they had run out**. It goes to show you that people in Ohio have been chomping at the bit to get into this thing, when they can get that kind of turnout in super-short notice. It also seems from my perspective that the now-legendary Obama Ground Game Operation is for real. > > In all my years of political activism and volunteerism, I’d never seen anything like it. We weren’t coming to a rally, and we weren’t coming to vote. We were coming to offer our time and our support. And to do that, just that one simple act of participation, we sat in a traffic jam on a miserable February day, we slid across treacherous ice, and ruined our best work shoes in the grey city snow. And we did this, with less than 24 hour notice, in the most incredible numbers I’ve ever seen for a primary election. A primary! And in Cincinnati, the Republican bastion of the state! I’ve never even seen a crowd half its size for the first volunteer meeting for a _general_ election! In other endorsement news: The Capital Times of Madison Wisconsin [endorsed Barack Obama](http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion/272067). > [@](#): > > We still believe that this great nation can and should be what Lincoln imagined: “the last best hope of Earth.” > > That, more than any of the vagaries of campaign finance, primary scheduling or simplistic candidate comparisons, explains why Barack Obama’s campaign for the presidency has been so successful – and why it must prevail on Feb. 19 in Wisconsin and at this summer’s Democratic National Convention in Denver. As reported in the Milwaukee Mail Tribune, [Sen. Barack Obama has won the backing of the United Food and Commercial Workers](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_UNION_ENDORSEMENT?SITE=ORMED&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT), a politically active union with significant membership in the upcoming Democratic battlegrounds. > [@](#): > > The 1.3-million member UFCW gives Obama an organizational boost in vital upcoming contests, with 69,000 members in the Buckeye state and another 26,000 in Texas. The two states have a large number of delegates and are where Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton hopes to stop Obama’s winning streak on March 4. > > The food workers also have 19,000 members in Wisconsin, which holds a primary Tuesday. And it appears that the [Service Employees International Union is set to endorse Obama](http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/SEIU_set_to_endorse_Obama.html). > [@](#): > > Many SEIU leaders had backed Edwards before he dropped out, but giant New York- and Chicago-based locals blocked an endorsement. Now, with Chicago pushing hard for Obama and joined by much of the rest of the union’s national organization, insiders said a tipping point appears to have been reached. A formal endorsement would come after tonight’s call, when local organizations submit their written votes by email. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/164 "2008-02-15T00:03:04Z")
New Mexico’s results are finally in, and Clinton narrowly won it, taking the delegates 14-12 (by a margin of less than 2000 votes total). ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/165 "2008-02-15T01:03:20Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] New Mexico’s results are finally in, and Clinton narrowly won it, taking the delegates 14-12 (by a margin of less than 2000 votes total). [/QUOTE] Curse you, Bill Richardson! :mad: _shakes fist_ ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/166 "2008-02-15T02:37:07Z")
[After a nine-day hand-count, Clinton wins New Mexico, picks up one extra delegate.](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080214/ap_on_el_pr/new_mexico_caucuses) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/167 "2008-02-15T03:14:17Z")
[Former Pub Senator Lincoln Chafee (former senator, former Pub) endorses Obama.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/14/former-rhode-island-gop-s_n_86631.html) [More from Chafee.](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080303/press) ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/168 "2008-02-15T08:25:04Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [After a nine-day hand-count, Clinton wins New Mexico, picks up one extra delegate.](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080214/ap_on_el_pr/new_mexico_caucuses) [/QUOTE] Well of course she won, Bill didn’t go to NM to watch the Superbowl for nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/169 "2008-02-15T13:58:28Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [Former Pub Senator Lincoln Chafee (former senator, former Pub) endorses Obama.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/14/former-rhode-island-gop-s_n_86631.html) [More from Chafee.](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080303/press) [/QUOTE] People - big dem movers and shakers - are jumping on Obama because [I believe] they see a man who can unite a party, and perhaps an era. I see Obama being a mover and a shaker someone who is going to do great things in Washington. He’s going to be the president who runs 2 terms and people will wish he could run for a third. Big things happen after big elections - and I believe Obama would not be just a mediocre president, he’s already shifting huge waves of people and endorsements in the nation. Hillary supporters are jumping ver to this side, big mover and shaker dems and pubs are endorsing him, feminist leaders, activists, foreign leaders are looking at Obama as being the change candidate, the candidate who will unite. That I believ is enough to get him the nod, and I believe we’ll see it in just a matter of weeks. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/170 "2008-02-15T14:19:08Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] People - big dem movers and shakers - are jumping on Obama because [I believe] they see a man who can unite a party, and perhaps an era. I see Obama being a mover and a shaker someone who is going to do great things in Washington. He’s going to be the president who runs 2 terms and people will wish he could run for a third. Big things happen after big elections - and I believe Obama would not be just a mediocre president, he’s already shifting huge waves of people and endorsements in the nation. Hillary supporters are jumping ver to this side, big mover and shaker dems and pubs are endorsing him, feminist leaders, activists, foreign leaders are looking at Obama as being the change candidate, the candidate who will unite. That I believ is enough to get him the nod, and I believe we’ll see it in just a matter of weeks. [/QUOTE] While I’d like to believe this whole-heartedly, once you become president, you face the same things any other president faces. It’s not like they give you a magic wand, and you can change anything you want instantly. I think people are coming over to Obama mostly because of electability. I hope he becomes president, but I kind of agree with [Joe Klein’s recent article in Time](http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1710721,00.html). He looks at the Obama’s rhetoric: [QUOTE=Joe Klein] And yet there was something just a wee bit creepy about the mass messianism — “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for” — of the Super Tuesday speech and the recent turn of the Obama campaign. “This time can be different because this campaign for the presidency of the United States of America is different. It’s different not because of me. It’s different because of you.” That is not just maddeningly vague but also disingenuous: the campaign is entirely about Obama and his ability to inspire. Rather than focusing on any specific issue or cause — other than an amorphous desire for change — the message is becoming dangerously self-referential. The Obama campaign all too often is about how wonderful the Obama campaign is. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![MilTan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@MilTan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MilTan)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/171 "2008-02-15T14:37:09Z")
[QUOTE=guizot] I hope he becomes president, but I kind of agree with [Joe Klein’s recent article in Time](http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1710721,00.html). He looks at the Obama’s rhetoric: [/QUOTE] Look, it’s true that Obama’s _speeches_ don’t contain policy specifics, but hey, that’s working for him. But one shouldn’t make the leap, as Klein does, to claiming that the _campaign_ doesn’t contain policy specifics. It has reams of white papers, and Obama certainly doesn’t shy away from talking policy at the debates. I think there’s a tendency in the media to cast attribute in the campaign as applying to one, and only one, candidate. Obama does rhetoric really well, and Clinton’s strength is in her policy wonkishness. So, _ipso facto_, Obama has no policy chops, and Clinton’s speeches aren’t any good. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/172 "2008-02-15T14:43:54Z")
This seems to happen all the time. My Guy Is Fucking Up - The President isn’t really all that powerful. The Other Guy Is Fucking Up - See, this is what happens when you have a hippie/pussy/catholic in charge. Economy is doing well? It’s obviously my guy’s tax cuts from six months ago. Oh, it’s doing poorly? Well, the economy is cyclical, the President doesn’t have that much impact, and anything that’s happening is pretty much the result of whatever was done by his opposite-party predecessor six years ago - you can’t expect something that was done six months ago to have any effect on the economy. It takes time to cycle through. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/173 "2008-02-15T14:50:25Z")
[QUOTE=MilTan] Look, it’s true that Obama’s _speeches_ don’t contain policy specifics, but hey, that’s working for him. But one shouldn’t make the leap, as Klein does, to claiming that the _campaign_ doesn’t contain policy specifics. It has reams of white papers, and Obama certainly doesn’t shy away from talking policy at the debates. [/QUOTE] I like his white papers; I’m just addressing why he’s becoming so popular. Like you, however, I don’t really care _how_ he becomes popular. If he becomes elected president, the election will be nothing compared to actually doing the job. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/174 "2008-02-15T15:10:06Z")
**guizot** , as far as President goes, it is somewhat true in this case that [“the medium is the message.”](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message) Other than the fact that HRC is a bit more of a hawk, she and Obama are really not all that different on matters of policy issues. Neither of them is “content free” (like McLuhan’s fabled light bulb); far from it. Both are very smart critical and analytic thinkers. Yet the message that each them embodies is a night and day difference and the potential effect of that difference is profound. As has been pointed out in another thread [Reagan](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=455743) was a transformational President. Carter was more often right, but that didn’t matter, Carter was a failure as a President anyway. Reagan, wrong as he usually was on so many things, was able to get the American people to follow him anyway. He brought his party back from the Nixon years and into ascendency. Obama has the potential to do the same but this time with ideas that are right! With him the Democratic party can emerged energized and would grow its Congressional majority. The main tool a President has is the very thing he knows how to use so well - that fabled bully pulpit. And unlike HRC he will have a solid honeymoon period both domestically and on the world stage in which I expect he will be able to use that tool well. I’l take that potential over not having that potential any time. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/175 "2008-02-15T15:17:59Z")
Joe Klein was completely full of shit with that article and it represents a new trend of fatuous attacks on Obama which profess to be “creeped out” or “made nervous” by Obama’s popularity. His supporters are called “cultic” and the assertion that people see him as “messianic” is pulled freely from asses as a way to make his movement seem “scary.” Never mind that no one (least of all Obama) has ever actually claimed he’s a messiah. It’s like commentators have become so cynical that if a candidate is actually inspiring for once, they think there must be something wrong with him. “Isn’t it dangerous?” they whinge? No, its not dangerous, you assholes, it’s a breath of fresh air. It seems to me like there’s a current of resentment underneath that stuff. Like they can’t stand it that there’s a Democratic candidate out there that is inspiring and popular and doesn’t appear to have any negatives, so they have to pretend like his very popularity, and ability to inspire and lack of negatives is somehow sinister and frightening. It’s asinine. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/176 "2008-02-15T15:22:33Z")
[QUOTE=guizot] I don’t really care _how_ he becomes popular. If he becomes elected president, the election will be nothing compared to actually doing the job. [/QUOTE] But _how_ he becomes popular may have a big effect on his potential success as President. Like it or not, a winning candidate has a mandate for those things he’s run on. Particularly if there are costs associated with his agenda, it’s best that he be forthright about that in his speeches, so that those who voted for him have done so while fully aware of those costs, and Congresscritters will know that he’s got a mandate to incur those costs. Stuff that’s only in white papers doesn’t count. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/177 "2008-02-15T15:49:16Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] Joe Klein was completely full of shit with that article and it represents a new trend of fatuous attacks on Obama which profess to be “creeped out” or “made nervous” by Obama’s popularity. His supporters are called “cultic” and the assertion that people see him as “messianic” is pulled freely from asses as a way to make his movement seem “scary.” Never mind that no one (least of all Obama) has ever actually claimed he’s a messiah. [/QUOTE] Agreed. The “messiah” remarks, the “never done wrong”, the “he’s totally pure”, the “he’ll solve all of our ills” remarks are largely strawmen put up by his critics. Yeah, he has some very, ahem, dedicated supporters. So does Clinton. So does McCain. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/178 "2008-02-15T17:57:17Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] [PA](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html): Clinton’s up by 16 in Quinnipiac poll. [NC](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html): Survey USA has Obama up by 10. AFAICT, nobody’s polled Texas yet. [/QUOTE] We now have [Texas polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html): while Rasmussen has Hillary up 54-38, two other polls taken this week show her lead to be 48-41 or 49-41. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/179 "2008-02-15T18:01:56Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] We now have [Texas polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html): while Rasmussen has Hillary up 54-38, two other polls taken this week show her lead to be 48-41 or 49-41. [/QUOTE] Either way it’s a lifetime away in Campaign Time. Anything can happen in that amount of time. One thing we already know about Obama is his ground forces are strong. I doubt Hillarity wins by huge numbers in any of the last big three. I’m even doubting a trifecta on her part - we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633/180 "2008-02-15T18:08:00Z")
Even if Obama can get the lead down to single digits in Texas, that will still be as good as a victory for him. He doesn’t have to win any of those remaing big states outright, just make them close, which I think he will. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-leads-in-delegate-count/436633.md?page=10)