# Obama passing the ball to Congress for now - predictions? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 1, 2013, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710 "2013-09-01T03:42:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/281 "2013-09-07T20:58:10Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > What makes you think that Assad wouldn’t try to turn it from a battle between Shia and Sunni into a war of Islam against Israel, with him as religious hero? Scruples? Because he wants to remain in power. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/282 "2013-09-07T21:27:28Z")
Confucius say: Don’t fuck with the Israelis! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/283 "2013-09-07T21:57:21Z")
I’m sorry, did I suggest that was a reasonable and rational course of action? First and foremost on his list of things he wants is staying alive. There was a chance, perhaps, that a negotiated settlement might offer that, but that’s gone. The reasonable and moderate opposition is most likely gone as well. So if he starts to lose, he will do _anything_. A bloodbath doesn’t worry him, so long as none of it is his. Hell, it wouldn’t be that hard to start a war with Israel even if he didn’t want one! ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/284 "2013-09-07T22:05:06Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Confucius say: Don’t fuck with the Israelis! With corollary: If you’re Third World country. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/285 "2013-09-07T22:30:25Z")
Hey, I’m a pessimist, I love being wrong. Doesn’t happen often enough. What scares me most about people is the widespread belief that they know exactly what God wants them to do, like an ant crawling across Einstein’s toes suddenly develops calculus. How many Muslims crave an Israelgeddon? Millions. And that Allah will intervene on their behalf, if their faith is strong and unquestioning. How many Israelis believe that, but with a different polarity? Shit, how many American \*Christians \*believe that?! I suspect, but cannot prove, that this is the elephant in Obama’s mind, to get this over with as quickly as possible before it spins out of control. Force Assad to the table, get this papered over so that everybody goes back down in DefCon numbers. The _Guns of August_ was only a hundred years ago, and we ain’t that much smarter. If at all. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/286 "2013-09-07T22:59:49Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I suspect, but cannot prove, that this is the elephant in Obama’s mind, to get this over with as quickly as possible before it spins out of control. Force Assad to the table, get this papered over so that everybody goes back down in DefCon numbers. I’m not following you. What is “this” (see emphasis, above) and what does “goes back down in DefCon numbers” mean? ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/287 "2013-09-07T23:07:45Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is elephant kosher? > > Has the US ever come to the aid, militarily, of Israel? With troops, aircraft, and ships - I believe no. Logistics - yes, rush shipments of anti-tank shells and bombs. Note: we’ve also withheld to influence restraint when Israel has rolled up a big advantage. Intelligence - probably though I have no sources. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/288 "2013-09-07T23:21:22Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > No military response is absolutely a choice for the US president. I don’t buy that “leader of the free world” crap. > > Looks like you are being Fooled By Obama if you favor military action. You don’t buy the ‘leader of the free world crap’ as you call it, and you have expressed a view that you don’t care if countries like Iraq having WMD, so your position is rare among serious thinkers on this matter. Obama did not set the international norm on the use of CW, and you know the deal with Putin as a permanent member of the UNSC. Obama’s choice to strike Syria is not absolute that he make it, but you must agree that the US Military is the most powerful in the world, so if there is to be punitive strikes and Obama is convinced Assad’s regime did it, the decision to act falls on our president as primarily the only single nation that can deliver a blow. If the US does not act, and nothing can be done, then being signatory to this means little. That is what I meant, that Obama did not bring up the red line and need for a strike just out of the blue. > [@](#): > > The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is an arms control agreement which outlaws the production, stockpiling, and use of chemical weapons and their precursors. Its full name is the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction. The agreement is administered by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which is an independent organization based in the Hague, in the Netherlands. > > The main obligation under the convention is the prohibition of use and production of chemical weapons, as well as the destruction of all chemical weapons. The destruction activities are verified by the OPCW. As of January 2013, around 78% of the (declared) stockpile of chemical weapons has thus been destroyed.[5][6] The convention also has provisions for systematic evaluation of chemical and military plants, as well as for investigations of allegations of use and production of chemical weapons based on intelligence of other state parties. > > As of June 2013, 189 states are party to the CWC, and another two countries (Israel and Myanmar) have signed but not yet ratified the convention.[1] > > [Chemical Weapons Convention - Wikipedia](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_Weapons_Convention) And could you explain how I could possibly be in a condition you define as being fooled by Obama. According to you Obama isn’t lying, he isn’t selling, he isn’t hyping. I’ve heard the reasoning and case for action and I agree. Why must you go down the ‘fooled by Obama’ route? Is Obama lying or do you simply disagree with him? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/289 "2013-09-07T23:23:02Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m not following you. What is “this” (see emphasis, above) and what does “goes back down in DefCon numbers” mean? DefCon numbers refers to the status of defense (or maybe it doesn’t any more, I don’t keep up), basically “cooling off”. As to what “this” is, it follows immediately after: The suggestion is that one of the prominent motivations for Obama’s military plans is to shut this down before it gets any more out of hand. To prevent that, he is willing to go to some extreme lengths. The question then becomes is Obama the kind of man who would sacrifice his career and reputation to prevent a million deaths? He fuckin’ well better be. That’s the man I voted for. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/290 "2013-09-07T23:28:51Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Obama’s choice to strike Syria is not absolute that he make it, but you must agree that the US Military is the most powerful in the world, so if there is to be punitive strikes and Obama is convinced Assad’s regime did it, the decision to act falls on our president as primarily the only single nation that can deliver a blow. You way overestimate Syrian military. No, US is not “the only single nation that can deliver a blow”. There are dozens of nations that can singly do it. I’m not even talking France or Germany. Hell, Saudi Arabia can do it. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/291 "2013-09-07T23:31:45Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > The question then becomes is Obama the kind of man who would sacrifice his career and reputation to prevent a million deaths? He fuckin’ well better be. That’s the man I voted for. “To prevent a million deaths” Obama better be prepared to send 100,000 combat troops into Syria, and leave them there for a while, building a reasonably run state that would prevent sectarian violence. Because without that, there will be massacres, whichever side wins. Will you be rooting for Obama to do that? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/292 "2013-09-07T23:37:48Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is elephant kosher? No. Per Leviticus 11:3-8: " You may eat any animal that has a divided hoof and that chews the cud. There are some that only chew the cud or only have a divided hoof, but you must not eat them." As far as I know, elephants fail on both counts. And as an aside, even if they were not otherwise forbidden, the method of slaughter required (a pious _shochet_ and a single slash to the throat) would be untenable as to an adult elephant. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/293 "2013-09-07T23:40:34Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > DefCon numbers refers to the status of defense (or maybe it doesn’t any more, I don’t keep up), basically “cooling off”. As to what “this” is, it follows immediately after: > > The suggestion is that one of the prominent motivations for Obama’s military plans is to shut this down before it gets any more out of hand. To prevent that, he is willing to go to some extreme lengths. The question then becomes is Obama the kind of man who would sacrifice his career and reputation to prevent a million deaths? He fuckin’ well better be. That’s the man I voted for. I think you grossly overestimate the influence the US has in Syria. Obama, or any US president, just doesn’t have the strings to pull. What he does have is the biggest, baddest military in the world, ever, and he seems to think that is a useful tool. And Obama’s longer term plan, such as it is, consists of giving more aid to the rebels, including weapons. To me, that means more violence, not less. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/294 "2013-09-08T00:34:56Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > You don’t buy the ‘leader of the free world crap’ as you call it, and you have expressed a view that you don’t care if countries like Iraq having WMD, so your position is rare among serious thinkers on this matter. Oh, I don’t know about that. A lot of people were shown to be wrong about caring too much about WMDs, and whether they pose a threat to the US. Few people would have us do a “do over” in Iraq. I think my view is now a mainstream view, if not the mainstream view. > [@](#): > > Obama did not set the international norm on the use of CW, and you know the deal with Putin as a permanent member of the UNSC. > > Obama’s choice to strike Syria is not absolute that he make it, but you must agree that the US Military is the most powerful in the world, so if there is to be punitive strikes and Obama is convinced Assad’s regime did it, the decision to act falls on our president as primarily the only single nation that can deliver a blow. Once again, you are wrong. There are plenty of other countries that can strike Syria. Israel has already done it at least once. (Not that I’m suggesting Israel act this time, but any number of European countries could do so, or Saudi Arabia). > [@](#): > > If the US does not act, and nothing can be done, then being signatory to this means little. > > That is what I meant, that Obama did not bring up the red line and need for a strike just out of the blue. If you had continued to read your cite, you would have noticed that: > [@](#): > > …five states have not signed the treaty (Angola, North Korea, Egypt, South Sudan and Syria). In fact, you chopped your quote off right there. So yeah, being a signatory doesn’t mean much if _you’re not actually a signatory._ > [@](#): > > And could you explain how I could possibly be in a condition you define as being fooled by Obama. According to you Obama isn’t lying, he isn’t selling, he isn’t hyping. I’ve heard the reasoning and case for action and I agree. Why must you go down the ‘fooled by Obama’ route? > > Is Obama lying or do you simply disagree with him? I disagree with him, as do most Americans. We are not fooled by the idea that the US must be the world’s policeman, that we can even do anything about this with a “limited military action”, and, in fact, that the international community actually cares much about what happens, internally, in Syria. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/295 "2013-09-08T00:57:24Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > You way overestimate Syrian military. No, US is not “the only single nation that can deliver a blow”. There are dozens of nations that can singly do it. I’m not even talking France or Germany. Hell, Saudi Arabia can do it. It’s not clear the Saudi’s can do what the US with sea launched cruise missiles can do. Accuracy is needed to deliver the blow that ought to be delivered. > [@](#): > > Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missile arsenal is limited to the Chinese Dongfeng-3 (DF-3; NATO: CSS-2). The DF-3 is a road mobile, liquid fuelled, medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). With a range of 2500km, the DF-3 has extensive regional reach. However, the DF-3 is a highly inaccurate missile; when equipped with a conventional warhead, it would therefore not be effective against discrete military or tactical targets. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has never tested the DF-3, which would be critical for ensuring its reliability and training missile forces. > > [http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/saudi-arabia/delivery-systems/](http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/saudi-arabia/delivery-systems/) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/296 "2013-09-08T01:09:59Z")
Just to be clear, when I said i didn’t think Obama was lying to us, I was talking about the evidence he has that Assad was the one who deployed the CWs, and not the rebels. I’m not one to yell “liar”, and I don’t expect politicians to always tell the truth, but I’m hearing a lot of what I will charitably call exaggerations from Obama and his administration about the whole concept of responding to CW use, whether the US needs to be the one to take action, whether action they take will make any difference, and how much the rest of the international community is with us on this. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/297 "2013-09-08T01:32:00Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > It’s not clear the Saudi’s can do what the US with sea launched cruise missiles can do. Accuracy is needed to deliver the blow that ought to be delivered. American-supplied fighter-bombers are plenty accurate. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/298 "2013-09-08T01:35:51Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is elephant kosher? Tastes like chicken. Or, er, so I’ve heard. :o ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/299 "2013-09-08T01:50:05Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Especially when the nation in question isn’t a signatory to the treaty. Syria didn’t agree to the treaty banning production of chemical weapons, but it did accede to the one saying that you can’t use them. See: > **[Geneva Protocol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Protocol)** > > The Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare, usually called the Geneva Protocol, is a treaty prohibiting the use of chemical and biological weapons in international armed conflicts. It was signed at Geneva on 17 June 1925 and entered into force on 8 February 1928. It was registered in League of Nations Treaty Series on 7 September 1929. The Geneva Protocol is a protocol to the Convention for the Supervi and > **[UNODA Treaties Database](https://treaties.unoda.org/a/1925/syrianarabrepublic/acc/paris)** ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2013, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710/300 "2013-09-08T01:58:35Z")
> [@](#): > > I disagree with him, as do most Americans. We are not fooled by the idea that the US must be the world’s policeman, that we can even do anything about this with a “limited military action”, and, in fact, that the international community actually cares much about what happens, internally, in Syria. -John Mace Then you are saying Obama is a fool, because you are not. Is it with all your infallible wisdom and knowledge that you somehow know with doubtless certainty that ‘limited military action’ won’t do anything about the situation in Syria. How do you know Obama is a fool? That knowledge seems to be a reach, even for an isolationist who could care less if any murderous dictator in any part of the world gathers and uses chemical or biological weapons on vulnerable innocent people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-passing-the-ball-to-congress-for-now-predictions/667710.md?page=16)